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Week 1 Lines are Up

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Posted: #126
TD,    Thanks for posting solid info.  Just perusing some of the Conference info is good.  Always take you serious.  Agree with most.

Stay Hard,   Doc



  
 
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Posted: #127
BOL this year TD 
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:

BOL this year TD 

sportschat, good luck to you too in 2017!  


..... what's the word so far on coach Rocco?.  Pretty experienced team returning.  Do you think some new leadership can help them turn the corner in year 1?  They might be a team in the College Extra betting world that has some value if they can ever find a little more balance on offense.
 
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Posted: #129
Mountain West added below -- Looks like a Year 0 for a couple of these new head coaches.
......still tweaking a few #s elsewhere as I'm starting to have enough work done to compare teams from different conferences.  First pass is kinda that particular conference reviewed somewhat alone in a bubble.

2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s for a few conferences:  

Pac 12:
USC  91.4
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
WSU  80.2
Utah  79.0
UCLA  79.0
Oregon  77.7
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State  71.1
Troy  68.7
Arkansas State  63.9
Georgia Southern  58.3
Louisiana Lafayette  *55.2
Idaho  55.2
Georgia State  54.6
Louisiana Monroe  54.2
Coastal Carolina  52.2
South Alabama  50.2
New Mexico State  48.1
Texas State  41.9

*assumes potentially suspended players remain on the team.

MAC:
Toledo  72.3
Western Michigan 70.8
Miami (Ohio)  67.3
Ohio U.  63.1
Eastern Michigan 60.4
Northern Illinois  58.2
Central Michigan  57.6
Akron  56.0
Ball State  55.9
Bowling Green  55.3
Buffalo  49.7
Kent State  48.1

Big Ten:
Ohio State  95.2
Penn State  89.6
Wisconsin  88.4
Michigan  86.1
Northwestern  78.5
Iowa  75.6
Nebraska  75.2
Indiana  73.2
Minnesota  72.6
Michigan State  70.9
Maryland  68.6
Purdue  62.9
Illinois  60.8
Rutgers  58.9

Mountain West:
Colorado State  76.9
San Diego State  75.3
Boise State  74.2
Wyoming  68.0
Air Force  62.0
Utah State  60.4
New Mexico  60.0
Hawaii  59.5
UNLV  54.3
Fresno State  54.1
Nevada  52.8
San Jose State  50.1


 
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Posted: #130
TD,    I'm beginning to think your Port. St. play has some merit.  Like most games it may come down to ball control. I figure Port. can get 3 or 4 time consumer drives.

Stay Hard,   Doc

 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

TD,    I'm beginning to think your Port. St. play has some merit.  Like most games it may come down to ball control. I figure Port. can get 3 or 4 time consumer drives.

Stay Hard,   Doc


Doc, it's back up to +32 on 5D.  If Portland State can muster up enough offense to score 7 to 10 points, I like my chances as I don't see BYU with a new WR corps and especially with that schedule in weeks 2-4 going into blowout mode in the 2nd half.  I'm sure you saw it awhile back, but more detailed thoughts on this game are back in post #68 of this thread.

 
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Posted: #132
Guess I never did update that I couldn't resist a small play on the Tulane game after reviewing this one in detail.

Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5  (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5  (0.5u)
UAB -9.5  (0.5u)
East Carolina  +6  (0.25u)
Added:  Tulane -19 (0.25u)

College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga

GOY plays:
9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)  (0.5u)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)  (0.5u)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)  (0.5u)
9/16:  Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal)  (1u)  
*HC Freeze now out - hope the interim HC keeps up the ATS wins in non-conf.
N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State)  (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #133
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:

Non-Power 5 Conferences:  added AAC below
not sure I'm crazy about Applewhite and his new DC at Houston long term, but the talent level will be solid in 2017.  The O-line (now with better experience & hopefully better health) and RBs (add Colorado transfer plus top RBs are back) should allow the running game to improve so their offense is not so reliant on QB play.  The run D with Ed Oliver & Co. should remain strong if they'll play hard for this DC.

AAC:
Houston  79.3
South Florida  77.9
Memphis  75.0
Tulsa  72.0
Navy  71.6
Central Florida  70.3
SMU  69.0
Temple  67.1
Cincinnati  64.7
Tulane  61.0
East Carolina  57.6
Connecticut  56.1

CUSA:
Western Kentucky  70.6
Louisiana Tech  69.6
Middle Tennessee  68.7
Texas San Antonio  63.6
Old Dominion  60.5
Southern Miss  59.3
Marshall  58.5
Florida International  56.5
North Texas  55.9
Florida Atlantic  54.1
Rice  50.2
UAB  48.0
UTEP  46.2
Charlotte  42.5

MAC:
Toledo  72.3
Western Michigan  70.8
Miami (Ohio)  67.3
Ohio U.  63.1
Eastern Michigan  60.4
Northern Illinois  58.2
Central Michigan  57.6
Akron  56.0
Ball State  55.9
Bowling Green  55.3
Buffalo  49.7
Kent State  48.1

MWC:
Colorado State  76.9
San Diego State  75.3
Boise State  74.2
Wyoming  68.0
Air Force  62.0
Utah State  60.4
New Mexico  60.0
Hawaii  59.5
UNLV  54.2
Fresno State  54.1
Nevada 52.8
San Jose State  50.1

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State  71.1
Troy  68.7
Arkansas State  63.9
Georgia Southern  58.3
Louisiana Lafayette  55.2
Idaho  55.2
Georgia State  54.6
Louisiana Monroe  54.2
Coastal Carolina  52.2
South Alabama  50.2
New Mexico State 48.1
Texas State  41.9







 
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Posted: #134
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:

Non-Power 5 Conferences:  added Independents below  .... and should be done with the ACC by this weekend.

AAC:
Houston  79.3
South Florida  77.9
Memphis  75.0
Tulsa  72.0
Navy  71.6
Central Florida  70.3
SMU  69.0
Temple  67.1
Cincinnati  64.7
Tulane  61.0
East Carolina  57.6
Connecticut  56.1

CUSA:
Western Kentucky  70.6
Louisiana Tech  69.6
Middle Tennessee  68.7
Texas San Antonio  63.6
Old Dominion  60.5
Southern Miss  59.3
Marshall  58.5
Florida International  56.5
North Texas  55.9
Florida Atlantic  54.1
Rice  50.2
UAB  48.0
UTEP  46.2
Charlotte  42.5

MAC:
Toledo  72.3
Western Michigan  70.8
Miami (Ohio)  67.3
Ohio U.  63.1
Eastern Michigan  60.4
Northern Illinois  58.2
Central Michigan  57.6
Akron  56.0
Ball State  55.9
Bowling Green  55.3
Buffalo  49.7
Kent State  48.1

MWC:
Colorado State  76.9
San Diego State  75.3
Boise State  74.2
Wyoming  68.0
Air Force  62.0
Utah State  60.4
New Mexico  60.0
Hawaii  59.5
UNLV  54.2
Fresno State  54.1
Nevada 52.8
San Jose State  50.1

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State  71.1
Troy  68.7
Arkansas State  63.9
Georgia Southern  58.3
Louisiana Lafayette  55.2
Idaho  55.2
Georgia State  54.6
Louisiana Monroe  54.2
Coastal Carolina  52.2
South Alabama  50.2
New Mexico State 48.1
Texas State  41.9

Independents:
Notre Dame  81.5
BYU  78.0
Army  62.3
Massachusetts  56.9
 
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Posted: #135
Rocco is well respected and liked. I met him in the spring and he was speaking about football from high school to NFL. Good speaker, passionate and a good hire imo. I'm not sure how Richmond fans are but UD fans love their football more then breathing and he gets that. 
 
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Posted: #136
TD,   I might disagree here and there but good on you for doing it.
 
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Posted: #137
TD,     Yeh,  I got the -32.  I was thinking they get 17 - 21 pts.
 
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Posted: #138
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:

Power 5 Conferences:  added ACC below  .... and a couple tweaks to previous #s

Some random thoughts & comments on a few of these ACC teams.... 

#4 - #6 teams nationally all graded out very close (USC, Washington, & Clemson), and I suspect Auburn will be around #7 when I get through the SEC.  *And really USC needs to be bumped down a notch due to playing 12 straight games alone.  Biggest thing with Clemson that affects their PR# is QB play.  One could bump this # down to start the year until we see what we have at QB.  The front 7 on D should be even better.  If this team can stay hungry off a title and how much of a drop off at QB are the main questions.  I think there's a decent chance Auburn could win straight up early in the year with Carlson making several long FGs.  That may be a good thing for Clemson in the big picture as they seemed to regain focus last year after the Pitt loss.

FSU - biggest concern is that O-line.  Defense looks real tough.

NC State - it's now or never for my man D. Doeren.  If the Secondary can hold up I expect a strong year.  They look solid everywhere else.

Miami - concerns are QB and replacing losses in the Secondary.  If they go into their usual post-FSU funk, then vs. Toledo and at Duke could be tricky games.  But then there's a bye week and I think from then on their PR# could/should go up as the QB & Secondary come along.

Louisville - volatile team from an ATS margins perspective.  Should continue in 2017.

Pitt - this team has quite a bit more raw talent than I realized.  Inexperienced yes, but a couple early non-conf losses may just set up for a nice learning curve going into conference play.  They avoid the toughest teams from the other half of the league and get all season to gain experience before closing with 3 big games that will determine if they can surprise and challenge in the Coastal.

Boston College - their biggest problem is the corners can't match up athletically with the best WRs in this league.  Adjust accordingly on the PR# against those opponents.  Against teams that don't have such an athletic advantage on the perimeter, they'll hold their own from an ATS perspective.  *BTW, NIU does not have these types of WRs.

Syracuse - kinda tough to have them this low.  I do like them in non-conf spots early (CMU game in particular) but its tough to see much 2nd year growth with that schedule from week #4 thru week #10 (or even week #12).  I hope QB Dungey learned to slide because there are some tough defenses all in a row those weeks.  The guy seems to like getting his bell rung. ... New Safety from Notre Dame via JUCO is not eligible now either.


ACC:
Florida State  92.8
Clemson  91.2
North Carolina State  83.2
Miami  82.4
Virginia Tech  79.9
Pittsburgh  77.3
North Carolina  75.6
Georgia Tech  73.6
Duke  71.9
Boston College  68.6
Wake Forest  66.9
Virginia  65.9
Syracuse  65.7

Big Ten:
Ohio State  95.2
Penn State  89.6
Wisconsin  87.9
Michigan  85.3
Northwestern  78.5
Iowa  75.6
Nebraska  75.2
Indiana  73.2
Minnesota  72.6
Michigan State  70.9
Maryland  68.6
Purdue  62.9
Illinois  60.8
Rutgers  58.9

Pac 12:
USC  91.4
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
Washington State  79.7
UCLA  79.0
Utah  78.3
Oregon  77.4
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

Big 12:
Working on it.... some time next week.

SEC:
Later




 
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Posted: #139
Been waiting on a line move for a small play on this one.....just got it.


Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5  (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5  (0.5u)
UAB -9.5  (0.5u)
East Carolina  +6  (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Added:  Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)

College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga

GOY plays:
9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)  (0.5u)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)  (0.5u)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)  (0.5u)
9/16:  Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal)  (1u)  
9/23:  N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State)  (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #140
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:

Power 5 Conferences:  added BIG 12 below 

ACC:
Florida State  92.8
Clemson  91.2
North Carolina State  83.2
Miami  82.4
Virginia Tech  79.9
Pittsburgh  77.3
North Carolina  75.6
Georgia Tech  73.6
Duke  71.9
Boston College  68.6
Wake Forest  66.9
Virginia  65.9
Syracuse  65.7

Big Ten:
Ohio State  95.2
Penn State  89.6
Wisconsin  87.9
Michigan  85.3
Northwestern  78.5
Iowa  75.6
Nebraska  75.2
Indiana  73.2
Minnesota  72.6
Michigan State  70.9
Maryland  68.6
Purdue  62.9
Illinois  60.8
Rutgers  58.9

Pac 12:
USC  91.4
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
Washington State  79.7
UCLA  79.0
Utah  78.3
Oregon  77.4
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

Big 12:
Oklahoma  88.6
Oklahoma State  88.0
Texas  81.9
Kansas State  81.1
TCU  81.0
West Virginia  73.9
Baylor  72.1
Iowa State  70.7
Texas Tech  69.0
Kansas  62.3

SEC:
Later
 
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Posted: #141
Added to GOY Lines.....


Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5  (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5  (0.5u)
UAB -9.5  (0.5u)
East Carolina  +6  (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)

College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga

GOY plays:
9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)  (0.5u)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)  Added to this, again at -7 (now 1u)
9/16:  Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal)  (1u)  
9/23:  N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State)  (0.5u)
9/30:  Added:  Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State)  (0.5u)
10/21:  Added:  Missouri -16.5  (vs. Idaho)  (0.5u)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)  (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #142
Just noticed that I somehow left off Louisville from the original ACC PR#s

2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:

Power 5 Conferences:

ACC:
Florida State  92.8
Clemson  91.2
North Carolina State  83.2
Miami  82.4
Louisville  81.7
Virginia Tech  79.9
Pittsburgh  77.3
North Carolina  75.6
Georgia Tech  73.6
Duke  71.9
Boston College  68.6
Wake Forest  66.9
Virginia  65.9
Syracuse  65.7

Big Ten:
Ohio State  95.2
Penn State  89.6
Wisconsin  87.9
Michigan  85.3
Northwestern  78.5
Iowa  75.6
Nebraska  75.2
Indiana  73.2
Minnesota  72.6
Michigan State  70.9
Maryland  68.6
Purdue  62.9
Illinois  60.8
Rutgers  58.9

Pac 12:
USC  91.4
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
Washington State  79.7
UCLA  79.0
Utah  78.3
Oregon  77.4
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

Big 12:
Oklahoma  88.6
Oklahoma State  88.0
Texas  81.9
Kansas State  81.1
TCU  81.0
West Virginia  73.9
Baylor  72.1
Iowa State  70.7
Texas Tech  69.0
Kansas  62.3

SEC:
Later
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:


I agree BC has some issues, playing on the road at NIU..but, what are your plays that you consider better value than this?    right now, I have Texas, LSU, Bama, Kentucky, and Memphis...
i have to admit BC sucks but their defense is stingy. UNDER worth of a look, i also like your TX and Wolfpack.
 
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Posted: #144
Yeh,  Love the @Mizz, game below the 17 number. Had that one figured.  As with all late season GOY can play it differently and who knows,  maybe a double win.  At 10/21 maybe Mizz. holding back their best players and game plan.  Not a conference game so mostly 2nd team.

Like @Ark. big here but same as above.  9/30 is a rest date for Ark. before the real season starts. Will they cover -23.5?  I like making the play now and working other bets along side.  This one and the above might be 1st half plays.  Not sure TT's will be offered but the underdogs may be plays.

Stay  Hard,    Doc



    
 
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Posted: #145
....pulled the string early this morning on another game we've been discussing.  Haven't had a chance to post all day.  Looking into some USF & NC State small action as well.


Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5  (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Added:  Troy +12.5 -112  (0.75u)
Kansas State -25.5  (0.5u)
UAB -9.5  (0.5u)
East Carolina  +6  (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)

College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga

GOY plays:
9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)  (0.5u)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)  (1u)
9/16:  Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal)  (1u)  
9/23:  N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State)  (0.5u)
9/30:  Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State)  (0.5u)
10/21:  Missouri -16.5  (vs. Idaho)  (0.5u)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)  (0.5u)
 
Captain
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Posted: #146
.... and couldn't resist a small UDML parlay:

Troy +350 with Colorado State +225 (vs. Colorado)

Pays just over +1360.
 
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Posted: #147

Nice any more parlays for money line week 1
 
Captain
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by Mon4789:


Nice any more parlays for money line week 1

Nope.... I would encourage you to make some straight bets, unless you're just looking for some fun while in town.

 
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Posted: #149
TD, I believe Kraght is starting at QB for portland state? Could be an interesting team if they stay healthy and the defense makes a few stops.
 
 
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Posted: #150
PLEASE  STOP  POSTING

You're making EVERYBODY look bad....esp ME...........

Too bad these boys don't (really) understand the VALUE of those PR numbers.....I do and will reference them often

Tremendous work TD.....all the best this year..... 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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