When
I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts
of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the
post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016 FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ). When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the #4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31. After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way to 79.16. Almost 14 points higher than their 10-1 regular season rating. I believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that significant increase to end the season. And the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
When
I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts
of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the
post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016 FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ). When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the #4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31. After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way to 79.16. Almost 14 points higher than their 10-1 regular season rating. I believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that significant increase to end the season. And the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
Tennessee-Martin should take care of business
here at under -35. Clarion is not NAIA Bacone or Bethel bad (see UTM game
logs for recent year non-conf games, but they were 4-7 in a mostly average D2
league in Pennsylvania last year. This league is ok I guess; they’ll
(the league, not Clarion) represent their super region in the final 4 of the
playoffs from time to time, but usually get handled easily by the true D2 big
boys in the other regions. Clarion could
not run on offense (less than 100 ypg) in 2016.
Passing game was their relative strength but they must replace a lot of
production at QB and top 2 WRs (going from memory here—did look it up a couple
days ago). Top RB also gone. The most productive guy back is a RB/slot WR
hybrid type guy. They look very green on
offense. And UTM is pretty good on
defense, especially the Secondary this year.
I don’t see Clarion scoring much at all.
The key to this cover is how many points UTM will put up. I think they’ll be just fine on offense here
with a former transfer QB back. I forget
the losses at WR (believe it’s 3 of top 5).
There were a couple guys lost, however, I did notice that one WR back
for 2017 actually had a better year in 2015 than ’16. He’s expected to play a bigger role. Clarion appears to have been a younger
defense in 2016 (allowed a staggering 500 ypg).
They’ll be improved in conference play maybe, but not enough to slow down
UTM in my opinion. And HC Simpson does
not appear to have any problem running up the score (again, really bad NAIA
teams maybe not the best comparison).
Several FCS games I had initially circled as leans are pretty picked over by now. So may not have a full card of College Extra Games until Week 2. You can take WIU, but your bet will likely be cancelled. Western Illinois wins that game straight up. EIU also not a bad play, but road game at a MVFC team maybe trickier than I think at a glance, but Indiana State is down right now -- 1st year HC in this game.
Tennessee-Martin should take care of business
here at under -35. Clarion is not NAIA Bacone or Bethel bad (see UTM game
logs for recent year non-conf games, but they were 4-7 in a mostly average D2
league in Pennsylvania last year. This league is ok I guess; they’ll
(the league, not Clarion) represent their super region in the final 4 of the
playoffs from time to time, but usually get handled easily by the true D2 big
boys in the other regions. Clarion could
not run on offense (less than 100 ypg) in 2016.
Passing game was their relative strength but they must replace a lot of
production at QB and top 2 WRs (going from memory here—did look it up a couple
days ago). Top RB also gone. The most productive guy back is a RB/slot WR
hybrid type guy. They look very green on
offense. And UTM is pretty good on
defense, especially the Secondary this year.
I don’t see Clarion scoring much at all.
The key to this cover is how many points UTM will put up. I think they’ll be just fine on offense here
with a former transfer QB back. I forget
the losses at WR (believe it’s 3 of top 5).
There were a couple guys lost, however, I did notice that one WR back
for 2017 actually had a better year in 2015 than ’16. He’s expected to play a bigger role. Clarion appears to have been a younger
defense in 2016 (allowed a staggering 500 ypg).
They’ll be improved in conference play maybe, but not enough to slow down
UTM in my opinion. And HC Simpson does
not appear to have any problem running up the score (again, really bad NAIA
teams maybe not the best comparison).
Several FCS games I had initially circled as leans are pretty picked over by now. So may not have a full card of College Extra Games until Week 2. You can take WIU, but your bet will likely be cancelled. Western Illinois wins that game straight up. EIU also not a bad play, but road game at a MVFC team maybe trickier than I think at a glance, but Indiana State is down right now -- 1st year HC in this game.
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016 FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ). When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the #4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31. After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way to 79.16. Almost 14 points higher than their 10-1 regular season rating. I believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that significant increase to end the season. And the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016 FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ). When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the #4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31. After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way to 79.16. Almost 14 points higher than their 10-1 regular season rating. I believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that significant increase to end the season. And the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
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