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Week 1 picks with analysis........................................ba goes pro

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Posted: #1
like how I slipped that in there.........................................
 
Been posted a few times in places...guess most didn't know what it really meant.....or (hopefully) didn't care ha
 
Covers picked a guy from the 6 major sports to sell picks with the COVERS EXPERTS....a fine bidness opportunity for me ...been thinking about it (domain names locked in for years) for awhile
  * obviously I like hanging out with you knuckleheads...and don't have the time to maintain a (profitable) website....so perfect
 
Ironically...I will probably be more active here...and (should) contribute more than I have the last 2-3 yrs
 
I will put out 2-4 free picks each week anyway......so I can post those here.....>> BTW....free picks are huge and need to WIN
 
As for all that ridiculous 'tout' talk.....Covers is legit and I don't see anyway they would screw folks outta their hard earned cash.....
 
As for me.....i regard this an HONOR.....and a RESPONSIBILITY to represent  the forum well.....no way in hell I solicit here (not allowed anyway).....and of course don't expect many / if any here to buy picks.....>>  the nature of the forum is to get help so you don't HAVE to ya' know
 
 
 
.....with no time to study.....but with the cash..................or naysayers........................
 
As I have said repeatedly.....each week in the past I simply throw out 10-15 games that appear to provide (some) value. Why?...my goal here (for some reason)......is to teach guys how to do this stuff....rather than serve up picks >> agonizing over each loss > wildly celebrating each W ha. .....
   >>   Last few years I did play those BetOnline openers small usually....but (took me awhile to figure this out ha) oddly enough didn't do well....as since I preach value here...I would take the side providing the best value...really only trying to get the 'best side' of the number...which most every time I did.  LONG TERM a fine strategy...but for 'short termers' (HERE)....not so much ha
 
   $  so the only time (pretty much) I put out picks ...with the intention of others betting each one...is bowl season (one unit plays L5 years 49-18)....12-1 LY with 2 ill advised in-game plays (Bama holy crap)......still last 7 years (with bowls) 965-687....(earlier mention was wrong)
 
SO......what I do now will be a bit different.....hopefully better   
 
 
                           $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 

ANSWERS TO THE (always) SILLY.. 'TOUT' conspiracy talk.

 
 
Buying picks ain't for everybody..........
  * think limo / sedan service to airport vs taxi / Uber....or driving yourself.....Ivy League MBA / Wall Street guy vs a discount broker.....doing it yourself......>> win the lottery you run to Charles Schwab and let ex-football coach handle your money?......< know many    
  >> SO......as you get into that Kia Sorrento...do you look over at the guy getting into the limo / S-Class and call him an idiot? 
 
If you bet small it probably ain't worth it.....as an eggzample
  * let's say you hired the ol' BA...............
     >> this is starting to reek of a solicitation ha ...........nope just explaining how this works since so many seem confused....main focus OF Covers ya' know is SELLING PICKS
 
Last 7 ....betting every game
 
$100 player (risk).........total profit 18K or so....$2600/yr
       * fees > if $1500 -2000 / yr....prolly lower than that / I have no freakin' idea....you make $500-1000 each year 
 
$1000.....$181,500....or $26k / year
        * with fees $24-25K or so each year net profit
 
$5000 player......907K total.....130K each year
        * after fees you put $127-128K in your (large) pocket
 
too funny....I have buddies who are like many here (stupid to pay for picks!!)....and think they are really smart....investment guys + football guys big time....bet 5-10K/game and  every year practically..................................................
 
ENOUGH of this crap
 
week 1 I like a bunch ...here are 2 I have written up already...will have 1-2 more later............
 
 
 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #2

#138 TULANE -3  v  #137 FIU

     

BIG PICTURE

With @ Auburn on deck and then 7 tough games remaining, THIS is a MUST WIN for Tulane. Not so much for FIU...with the CUSA title in their sights (WKU on deck), a challenge only about once/month until a tough run begins 11/9. Will they not show up here?. Sure they will, but contrary to what most everybody thinks (fantasy world)...each game means something different. FIU's MAX efforts (FOCUS > INTENSITY >> PREPARATION) will be 9/20 @ LT...10/26 @ MT...11/9 @ FAU...and 11/30 @ Herd. Typically, you can expect maybe 3-5 max efforts per season for most every team (few exceptions each year). IF you can understand this...you give yourself a huge edge in breaking down these games.

FIU : Extremely well coached (Butch Davis doing a fantastic job), with an excellent QB. In fact an argument, (could) be made that they are the better team getting points! Not only that, but most certainly they will be BETTER in 2019. BUT...IMO they have probably 'overachieved' a bit (vs a really easy schedule). Last year's Sagarin rankings for each opponent (includes FCS recall) : 253 > 178 > 169 > 150 > 138 > 137 > 130 > 97(L) > 91(W/(MT: off 2 upsets + Georgia) > 79(L) > 75(W/Tol) > 66(L) > 34(L). SO, I believe (some) regression is inevitable.

Match-up wise, they struggle to run and stop the run, which does not bode well vs Tulane. However...they are very explosive offensively, and don't give up the big play on D...which DOES. FIU O has talented RB's and WR's to go along with a fine QB in Morgan (gets rid of ball fast). OL maybe down slightly (lose 107 starts), but only allowed 8 sacks LY, and return several guys that have started (51). They probably DO move the ball early I would think...but their (likely) inability to RUN on early downs...will lead to too many 3rd/longs...stumbling right into the strength of the Tulane pressure D.

Panther defensive front is soft (#13 CUSA rushing / #81 sacks / #116 stuff rate)...secondary is tough but maybe overrated a bit. Why?...they played mostly teams that couldn't throw. Top 4 teams that could were 80-120 (67%) / 913 yds / 12 TD-2 INT)

 

TULANE : The bet here is (really) on Willie Fritz. IMO a top 10 or better HC. Not gonna list his accomplishments here, he is a major program builder and azz kicker. He is (admittedly) starting a bit slow (for him) at Tulane, but the Wave WAS in terrible shape when he arrived. Not too dificult to see his main problem...TERRIBLE QB play, vs the tough AAC / tough non-conference as well. A decent running game (3 ys here 4.6 > 4.8 > 4.7) but with no to little passing threat leads to many 3'n outs > too much pressure on your D.
SO...he brings in a new OC (Will Hall/Memphis) and moving to up-tempo (why does it take teams so long to figure this out?). The KEY to all of this?...LSU QB transfer Justin McMillan, who played LY (started last 6 games). Beat out by buddy Joe Burrow at LSU, he arrived late and never got settled in (really)...commuted to NO from BR first few weeks! The new O is a much better fit for him and he has a lotta help. Plus if he gets hurt / doesn't play well, they added S Miss transfer Keon Howard who would be an upgrade over former guys as well. Their 2 RB's combined for 1919 yds av. 5.9/rush in 2018. Along with a fine WR in Darnell Mooney (20.7/catch) they add one of the top WR's in Okie St history stat wise (Jalen McCleskey) faded after being #3 in Big 12 2016. OL loses 3 starters but adds 2 transfers. Note: OL gave up a ton of sacks LY (35) but 28 (1st 7 games) of those were with Banks at QB, but only 7 with McMillan (last 6 / easier schedule). So we are indeed guessing a bit...but trusting in Willie that this 'fix' will work.

The one unit that should dominate here, and likely IMO to take over the game late, is the Wave DL...one of the best if not the best of non-Power 5 teams. TOUGH vs the run (3.9 / S&P #39)...just decent vs pass (#63 S&P-lose 2 all-AAC DB's too)...they like to bring pressure at the expense of giving up the big play (#19 efficiency / #114 explosive). To keep in mind what they are capable of, they destroyed the Memphis O LY (277 TO / 1.5 rush / 14-30 passing / 7 sacks!). LB play usually strong...secondary loses 2 all-AAC guys so might be down some, hopefully DL play will hide some early growing pains.

The KEY here to me is this : FIU should struggle to move it vs a nasty Tulane D, and their D will not be able to DISRUPT what Tulane will try to do on O

 
$$   STRATEGY  $$

Since a free play, I went ahead and chose the -3 at -104, rather than wait for 2' (or take a 'juiced' 2'. Line opened at 3 off shore most spots, and has bounced back and forth (2'/ 3) since, most of money so far is on FIU. If you get 2' I would take it now...if not I would wait. With FIU money likely to continue, I would be shocked if it didn't drop again to 2'.

BOL boys...................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #3
#154  RUTGERS -14   v   #153 UMASS



BIG PICTURE


A MUST WIN for Rutgers...off 1-11 with maybe 1-2 more (really) 'winnable' games left, if Ash doesn't win here he and ALL his assistants can call their wives and tell them to start packing. UMass is clearly in a YEAR ZERO situation under new HC Walt Bell, and will be in a LEARNING mode here...as Bell's priority will be installing not only his O & D, but the 'culture' he wants...doing things HIS WAY.


RUTGERS

True...Rutgers does in fact stink. And laying 13+ to anybody at first glance seems a dicey proposition. KEY here is that when they have had a chance to beat somebody up / have some fun for a change...they have done well, a 13-16 loss to (severely underrated) E.Mich notwithstanding. I also like that they have had MANY opportunities to quit under HC Ash, but have continued to play hard. Last year off 6 beat-downs in a row...they covered their last 5, almost beat Sparty and NW.

Transfers are a tiresome, and maybe overrated subject...but they do add a few guys that might contribute. QB McLane Carter (starter / inj) at Texas Tech should either beat out Sitkowski, or if not then A.S. is much improved. They add 2 fine TE's (UCLA / BC) and maybe huge add to D in LB Singleton (Michigan). They do have 2 solid and explosive RB's to take the pressure off the QB. The pressure / heat here is increased with a road game with Iowa on deck, followed with B Coll. at home with @ Michigan next. The Scarlet Knights have in fact covered 15 of last 24 so there are bright spots.....


UMASS

The most important part of this bet.... A really bad team last year with an excellent HC in Whipple (and great offensive mind), with one of their most talented rosters in awhile. Only 5/3 starters return (RP #128). Weak in the trenches, slow on the perimeter, and shouldn't be able to DISRUPT...what Rutgers tries to do offensively (only 10 sacks LY). As mentioned earlier, their preparation for this game will not (really) be on competing / winning this game...but on learning / building a culture / getting ready for a LONG SEASON. Plus they can look forward to 4 'winnable' games on deck, and 2 more later on, so this game not really needed for a bowl.


STRATEGY

This one opened at 10-11 offshore early June, was bet up to 14-15 a few days later, where it has settled in since. Currently 14' at most books, as low as 14 others. If 14'+ is the best you can get I would wait a bit to see what happens. IMO this should be an 'all or nothing' type game (Rutgers crushes / or game very tight or they lose SU). So if somehow it rises to 15-16 instead of dropping, it probably won't matter just too much. If played LY, the line would have been 5 or so, plus in the past UMass has been a tough road dog in spots (8-2 run at one point). Therefore I would expect this one to drop to 13-13' at some point closer to game, as 'sharps' see value in UMass.
  * note:  14 was available on one of the books I had to choose from

All the best this year boys.............


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #4
BTW....there is ALWAYS a big picture

If you can't identify one.....and/or maybe explain in ONE SENTENCE why you like a bet...maybe best to pass

eg.

Going back to the LSU / GS game......getting interesting
  * GS QB (teams best player) got bird shiit and cocaine mixed up (happens ha).....so is likely out

  >> recall LSU with Texas on deck.....which is REALLY huge because with a PLAY-OFF spot their goal...they can't lose.....most likely

You know what happens next.....the MOB begins to form..."LSU is gonnakillem' BRO !.....LOAD UP !!!

  meanwhile.....

    $  GS knows they MUST play even harder
    $  LSU relaxes THEIR FOCUS.....even more so
 $$$  the line goes WAY UP  (now 29'-30)


ALSO.....has Big Ed the Crazy Cajun...taken these games seriously in the past?............NOPE

2018   SELA W 31-0  / -40'
           LTech  W 38-21 / -20
           Rice    W 42-10 / -42

2017   UT Chat  W 45-10  -35'
           TROY      L 21-24 / -20'
           Cuse       W 35-26 / -20'

SO.....by all means BRO....load up on LSU...GS has NO SHOT BRO.....they're gonna get MURDERED BRO !!!!!!
  *  then when LSU wins 38-23..." can't believe it !'....Tigers on the take !!!.....game was obviously rigged  BRO !!!!......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #5
Good luck my friend.  I got the offer and passed as it didn't fit my style, but I will never hold anything against anyone who did.  

You're gonna kill it!
 
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Posted: #6

I always thought covers must be linked up with some of the folks here one way or another since like a handful of people are driving probably 99% of the traffic to the forum lol....  actually glad to see you blowing out the analysis on a few picks since it's way more helpful seeing all those many angles you talk about coordinated together .... Best of luck with the gig and hope you'll still be around to smack some of our more harebrained plays back in line... peace_5

 
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Posted: #7
You use to make plays as “large,” “small,” etc. what are these plays?  Also, what will your format be if paying for picks (e.g. unit sizing)?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Good luck my friend.  I got the offer and passed as it didn't fit my style, but I will never hold anything against anyone who did.  

You're gonna kill it!

yep I figured they ask a few before.....younger guys that can properly write in the English language.....shoulda done it....extra $ in your bank account each month for doing the same thing you do now.....pretty much............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

I always thought covers must be linked up with some of the folks here one way or another since like a handful of people are driving probably 99% of the traffic to the forum lol....  actually glad to see you blowing out the analysis on a few picks since it's way more helpful seeing all those many angles you talk about coordinated together .... Best of luck with the gig and hope you'll still be around to smack some of our more harebrained plays back in line... peace_5


thanks buddy all the best this year.........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #10
GL with the new venture, BA. I can humbly say that I've read & learned from a lot from your postings over the years. You put in the work & I've always appreciated that (you too BWS......still love the Musburger Pro-set card).
 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

You use to make plays as “large,” “small,” etc. what are these plays?  Also, what will your format be if paying for picks (e.g. unit sizing)?

ya' know....can't believe I just (recently) figured out your (genius) handle...........

good question.....since technically 'free plays'  < with apologies....you can of course regard them pretty much as smaller (< 1 unit) plays

BUT...each week I will probably throw in at least a one unit or better play tho ....here Rutgers at 14/14' I consider 1 unit or better.....Tulane maybe .75 > 1 unit....................



look at it this way.....no way in hell I would post a 'free pick' that I didn't like a lot  




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #12
Best of Luck/Blessings ....


Fantastic to see you in full swing 
Last year I was praying in the pew for your health ...


I've Never paid for picks , but If i was going to it would be from YOU , and a select few others on here ..  


Numerous times in the past I've made winning  mortgage wagers bc of reading your threads ( otherwise I would have went much smaller ) ....
You're the only other person on here  I've ever seen post numbers weeks in advance !!!!
This has saved me from making horrible snap wagers when the openers are released ..




Congratulations on going PRO, YOU'VE EARNED IT 


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #13

Love the Teddy Turner post endings BA....and all of your hard, priceless (well, until now,lol!) work.  Make zillions so we can go party at Caesar's w you!

 

Thank you again, bol.

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


ya' know....can't believe I just (recently) figured out your (genius) handle...........

good question.....since technically 'free plays'  < with apologies....you can of course regard them pretty much as smaller (< 1 unit) plays

BUT...each week I will probably throw in at least a one unit or better play tho ....here Rutgers at 14/14' I consider 1 unit or better.....Tulane maybe .75 > 1 unit....................



look at it this way.....no way in hell I would post a 'free pick' that I didn't like a lot  





Sounds good man. Thanks and goodluck!

On another note, I wish scalabrine wasn’t banned to see the sh&t-show he would create in this thread lol!  
 
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Posted: #15

Congrats and Good luck BA!    I have had fun sparring with you.   Makes us both better cappers.   Love the Rutgers pick!    Hook em' Horns!   an_cheers

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #16

Why? Then have Scal ruin it and act like phucking POS he is/was?

BOL on the endeavor BA

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #17
BA, remind me, what time each week do I need to get my picks in to you!?    ....... just kidding man.  Congrats and I wish you continued success!

Agree that this is an Honor and a Responsibility.  And props to Covers for offering this opportunity to you and others.  

............ And had I actually been monitoring my PMs, looks like I received the same message that you and BWS77 received.  A missed opportunity for sure.  Some other year maybe.  Might actually have more time then too.

And thank you for continuing to hang out here in the forum as well.  I look forward to seeing you around and comparing some ideas week to week.  

TD
 
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Posted: #18
Good luck with your new promotion if anyone deserves it on here its you

 
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Posted: #19
I can't tell you how many times I've snorted bird sh*t, it never ended well.

I had that same offer for college hoops...way too much responsibility for a regular dude like me. But it is a very cool thing covers is doing imo, you gotta earn something like that and you deserve it no question.

Meanwhile I had the first losing college hoops season in my life...thank god I passed on the offer.

GL buddy 
 
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Posted: #20

Congratulations my friend an_2drinks and I am sure you will be consulting with your close personal friend from across the street for input. an_roll_laugh I have a few nice Thais now in my stable so send me some winners and I will be happy to share. cool

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #21
Nice to see your getting paid BA, though probably not enough. 
 
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Posted: #22

Tulane and Rutgers?   You reaching my picks?!?!?!?!  

 

Best of luck!!!  I will miss your weekly roundups now that I'm back and you are now an expert... I'll probably just PM you now for that info an_praise

 
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Posted: #23

Nice explanation of what to expect  .... I have done very well with your logic and picks over last several years ... As I have many times thought and wished to be able to thank you for the "free" advice ... I will be paying up ... Thanks and Good Luck BA   

 
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Posted: #24
Wish you luck in your new venture.  

You have supplied the forum with great info for years but.....
I honestly don't recall what your public won loss records vs the spread is over the last few years?   

I always liked reading your posts but don't recall that many actual picks.  But I could easily have missed them since I don't check into Covers that much these days.
 
 
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Posted: #25

With you on both picks BA!

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