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WEEK 1 PUBLIC GAMES TO STAY AWAY FROM

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Posted: #1
Whats up Brothers 



BELOW is my LIST of WEEK 1 PUBLIC games TO STAY AWAY FROM 


DON'T FEEL EITHER SIDE IS WORTH A WAGER ...

ODDSMAKERS ARE SHARP 

COULD BE A BLOODBATH FOR BACKERS 

 NO NEED TO FORCE A PLAY 



  PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ADD INSIGHT AND OR GAMES YOU WOULD STAY AWAY FROM 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #2
1   NOTRE DAME -5  AT  TEXAS

2  GEORGIA -3 *VS UNC  

3  OKLAHOMA -10 AT HOUSTON

4  KENTUCKY -7  VS SO MISS 

5  FLORIDA -36.5 VS UMASS 

6   ARIZONA  (PICK) VS BYU 

7   GA TECH -3.5  VS BC 

 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Will break down the above 7 games 
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Posted: #4
what about Stan -16 vs Kansas State...I like Stan.  I think the snyder mystique will keep it relatively balanced.  I think Stan will blow them out.   thanks in advance.   
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

what about Stan -16 vs Kansas State...I like Stan.  I think the snyder mystique will keep it relatively balanced.  I think Stan will blow them out.   thanks in advance.   
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Double,    Gotta disagree on the Georgia play.  I think they can run the clock and defend enough to get the cover. Isn't this game in Atlanta?      N. Car. not all that!

Leaning So. Miss.  +7    Kenty???
Leaning Fla. -36.5     Mass. is pretty sad.

Why those?

GL,    Doc
 
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

what about Stan -16 vs Kansas State...I like Stan.  I think the snyder mystique will keep it relatively balanced.  I think Stan will blow them out.   thanks in advance.   

I am hoping for a STANFORD low TEAM total 

MY Numbers have STANFORD SCORING 35+ points 59% of the time 

Stanford will NOT sleep on an opening week out of conference  POWER 5 SCHOOL AGAIN ... The Loss to NORTHWESTERN last season was unacceptable 


NOT SURE ABOUT ATS ... I will NOT FADE DAN SNYDER with that many POINTS ..

That Being said I am already on STANFORD twice on the GAME OF THE YEAR LINES.. IF THE OFFENSE CLICKS EARLY THEY COULD BE THE PAC 12'S BEST PLAYOFF HOPE 




Thanks for posting brother 


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

Double,    Gotta disagree on the Georgia play.  I think they can run the clock and defend enough to get the cover. Isn't this game in Atlanta?      N. Car. not all that!

Leaning So. Miss.  +7    Kenty???
Leaning Fla. -36.5     Mass. is pretty sad.

Why those?

GL,    Doc

2 of THOSE 3 SEC GAMES look VERY FISHY TO ME 

ODDS MAKERS are up to something  

if they offered Georgia -5.5 they would likely still get more than enough GA ACTION 

FLORIDA COULD BE LAYING -42 and Gator bucks would still roll in ...




Careful with that UK vs So Miss Game . One+ break either way and ANYONE could win by 20+..  I lean on the OVER if 62 or less 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #9
DU, u are right on the money with thise 2 SEC games...UK stands out to me...im even contemplating backing USM in that one....last team to posses the ball wins it i think
 
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Posted: #10
South Florida just went up to -28.5 and I bet they still get action / line keeps going up.

TD
 
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IMO.....the games to play
  *are the ones where BOTH teams have most of LY's team back
      $$$   this is the best use of returning starters...to conclude many back means they will closely resemble LY's team.....prolly a bit better if team has shown a steady improvement.....NOT they will be GOOD
 
WHY?.....because it's easier to predict how they will play....SIMPLE
  *new HC?.....probably avoid 


1   NOTRE DAME -5  AT  TEXAS
 *maybe biggest no play on board

2  GEORGIA -3 *VS UNC 
       *kinda like Ga here.....page 179 in Steele....look at 2 things....rushing numbers given up LY by UNC (7.4/rush to Duke?).....and before LY.....STEADY DECLINE in most every category since Fedora's arrival in 2012.....QB was HUGE for them LY.....I expect his SOFT team to return here > Dawgs to run all over these boys....BUT based on uncertainty with Kirby as HC....maybe best to avoid
      

3  OKLAHOMA -10 AT HOUSTON
*STAY AWAY.....looks like Sooners roll....or might get beat....no way BOB takes my money here

4  KENTUCKY -7  VS SO MISS 
*Cats dicey but SMiss losing their HC...UK adding new OC Gran (finally using Boom W right?).......I lean UK here (great in these non-conf games as home favorite)....stay away proper read probably

5  FLORIDA -36.5 VS UMASS 
*Gators SMALL maybe OK....no way I play them here.....Covers blow out cappers only ha ....Gators play this type of stupid game every year right?

6   ARIZONA  (PICK) VS BYU 
*huge no play

7   GA TECH -3.5  VS BC
                                           *ditto




Indiana as a  (close to) 10 point road favorite?...missed the 3 or so....QB was huge LY..........PASS

Wake/Tulane?....you have NO IDEA how Tulane will play....so how can you PREDICT a score here???

SC / Vandy?.....ditto SC.....could win or get KILLED....Muschamp shown ZERO as HC
  *NOTE: the best DC in this game?....probably Derek Mason

Oregon St / Minny?...Andersen great HC > strong as road dog at Utah St ......I have no idea how they play here...may take him 3-4 years.....gotta be Minny or nothing > they should be the same....maybe better.....Kill a GREAT / underrated HC

Kan St / Tree?....looks like Snyder is done.....wanna bet against him?.....go right ahead...........

MIZZOU / WV....WV a terrible favorite.....Mizzou a rock solid dog under Pinkel....STAY THE HELLL AWAY

SMU/NT?....looks like Ponies on the upswing you bet.....you  have NO IDEA how NT will play here.....they QUIT LY  > so avoid if you can....they might adapt quickly to BIG system changes.....or struggle in a HUGE way...lean struggle

CLEMSON / AUBURN....I don't like this spot for DABO.....I don't think we have ANY IDEA how Auburn plays here = stay away

USC / BAMA?.....how will USC play?......nobody knows....Saban does great in this type of game.....without really trying too hard
  *missed the 14 or so with USC > pass

UCLA / Aggs?...........STAY THE HELLL AWAY....we have no idea how either will play.....both have been terribly overrated....I can't believe the faith by so many in A&M (John Football is gone ya' know)...Mora confuses me....he's supposed to be REALLY harsh / critical with his players....maybe why so UP/DOWN


LSU laying a big fat 10 AT Wisky?.......................maybe



 
 


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #12
Hey gentle I definitely like that OU/Houston game over is total is around 61 or lower!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

IMO.....the games to play  *are the ones where BOTH teams have most of LY's team back      $$$   this is the best use of returning starters...to conclude many back means they will closely resemble LY's team.....prolly a bit better if team has shown a steady improvement.....NOT they will be GOOD WHY?.....because it's easier to predict how they will play....SIMPLE  *new HC?.....probably avoid  1   NOTRE DAME -5  AT  TEXAS *maybe biggest no play on board2  GEORGIA -3 *VS UNC         *kinda like Ga here.....page 179 in Steele....look at 2 things....rushing numbers given up LY by UNC (7.4/rush to Duke?).....and before LY.....STEADY DECLINE in most every category since Fedora's arrival in 2012.....QB was HUGE for them LY.....I expect his SOFT team to return here > Dawgs to run all over these boys....BUT based on uncertainty with Kirby as HC....maybe best to avoid        3  OKLAHOMA -10 AT HOUSTON*STAY AWAY.....looks like Sooners roll....or might get beat....no way BOB takes my money here 4  KENTUCKY -7  VS SO MISS *Cats dicey but SMiss losing their HC...UK adding new OC Gran (finally using Boom W right?).......I lean UK here (great in these non-conf games as home favorite)....stay away proper read probably5  FLORIDA -36.5 VS UMASS *Gators SMALL maybe OK....no way I play them here.....Covers blow out cappers only ha ....Gators play this type of stupid game every year right?6   ARIZONA  (PICK) VS BYU *huge no play7   GA TECH -3.5  VS BC                                            *dittoIndiana as a  (close to) 10 point road favorite?...missed the 3 or so....QB was huge LY..........PASSWake/Tulane?....you have NO IDEA how Tulane will play....so how can you PREDICT a score here???SC / Vandy?.....ditto SC.....could win or get KILLED....Muschamp shown ZERO as HC  *NOTE: the best DC in this game?....probably Derek MasonOregon St / Minny?...Andersen great HC > strong as road dog at Utah St ......I have no idea how they play here...may take him 3-4 years.....gotta be Minny or nothing > they should be the same....maybe better.....Kill a GREAT / underrated HCKan St / Tree?....looks like Snyder is done.....wanna bet against him?.....go right ahead...........MIZZOU / WV....WV a terrible favorite.....Mizzou a rock solid dog under Pinkel....STAY THE HELLL AWAYSMU/NT?....looks like Ponies on the upswing you bet.....you  have NO IDEA how NT will play here.....they QUIT LY  > so avoid if you can....they might adapt quickly to BIG system changes.....or struggle in a HUGE way...lean struggleCLEMSON / AUBURN....I don't like this spot for DABO.....I don't think we have ANY IDEA how Auburn plays here = stay awayUSC / BAMA?.....how will USC play?......nobody knows....Saban does great in this type of game.....without really trying too hard  *missed the 14 or so with USC > passUCLA / Aggs?...........STAY THE HELLL AWAY....we have no idea how either will play.....both have been terribly overrated....I can't believe the faith by so many in A&M (John Football is gone ya' know)...Mora confuses me....he's supposed to be REALLY harsh / critical with his players....maybe why so UP/DOWN LSU laying a big fat 10 AT Wisky?.......................maybe


Gah damn bookie, I agree with literally EVERY ONE of those no plays..mainly for the same reasons. Except for Florida but I have my reasonings for that.

Thanks for all the information you provide on here, it's great to know that my mindset in analyzing these games of week 1 is somewhere on the same planet as yours! Good luck this year sir! $$$

Ha
 
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Posted: #14
BA - with regard to Stan/KSU... I understand the Snyder mystique...but, this game is not in Manhatten, at night, against a Mack Brown coached Texas team.   What was the score last season of a motivated OU team against KSU off the Texas loss, 55 to 0.   The KSU QB has yet to complete a college pass.    Plus, its just not a good match up for KSU.    Snyder makes adj in 2nd half, so does Stan and more.  Stan has new QB in Chryst, but honestly this guy has been biding his time behind Hogan.      I don't know.   Like the Houston game, this could be a blowout win for Stanford or a close loss for KSU.  I don't see Stan losing.  
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Posted: #15
Double Up, my Degenerate Brother.  I trust you are having a fantastic summer.

BookieAssassin, as always, I am in awe of your cognitive abilities.

I agree with you guys on most of your lists and have nothing else to offer.  I do differ, as reasonable people will, on a couple lines, to wit:

1] Domers -5.0 / Horns +5.0  My brief analysis is this line is nothing more than Jedi Mind Tricks being perpetuated on the unthinking public.  We all know what happened last year and the public will think laying the 5.0 (or whatever it is at kickoff) with the Catholics is a gift from god.  While I do not now have a play, I will likely take the Horns and the points prior to kickoff.  Heretical?  Perhaps.

2] Dawgs -3.0 / Heels +3.0  My brief analysis, even with a new HC at Georgia, Dawgs cover.  Heels stud QB Williams is long gone and this game is being played in Atlanta, and Athens is practically a suburb. BA provided his analysis above, and I agree, so will not belabor the points.

Other thoughts/input:

I ran into a couple of friends last night and had a beer with them.  He has two degrees from West Virginia.  She has an undergraduate degree from WV and an advanced degree from Pepperdine.  They are educated, thinking people.  And the biggest damn Mountaineer homers this side of the Mississippi (we live in western Colorado, where the THC industry is thriving).  Long story short, they espoused the virtues of their team and how the team is "under the radar."  She wanted to talk to the manager of the bar in order to establish Mountaineer football viewing parties.  Both emphatically agreed the Mountaineers will punish Mizzou, covering easily.  FADE

I got down on the Hoosiers at -3.0 a long time ago.  I would not ever hit them at -9.0.

Georgia Tech / Boston College in Dublin, Ireland.  I will bet the UNDER, even if they hang it at 22.5.  I don't see 10 points scored by either team.

Someone mentioned it somewhere that he liked New Mexico State +7.5.  After doing some work on the contest, I emphatically concur.

Call me crazy, but I like South Carolina State getting 20.5 @ Central Florida.

Call me a lunatic, but I think Ole Miss upsets Florida State.  If you are not likewise inclined, then just take the points.

That's all for now...Best of Luck to all you fine upstanding citizens and degenerates alike     
 
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Posted: #16
DoubleUp...I love your write ups! I've stayed away from Covers because there is so much hate and BS on here, but You have been one of the guys I love to see what your take is. 

1. I love ND here. Horns still looking for a QBS and despite Strong's reputation for defense, They have regressed.
2.UGA all the way here. After I saw Baylor run Rampant on them without a QBin the bowl game and Chizik refuse to get out of a six man front, I think the Dawgs will roll them and they won't have the offense to keep up.
3-6. I agree whole heartedly.
7. I can't imagine they will set a number that will be too low to bet the unde!

I love your posts! Keep up the good work bro!
 
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Posted: #17
Meant to say they won't set a number too low to not bet the under! 


How do you edit posts? I see several mistakes I made! No, I'm not illiterate!
 
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Posted: #18
A1_tellman respect your thoughts on playing games with returning starters. I think the value is easier found in teams that have guys ready to step up and replace starters. I like finding teams with returning guys from injuries, sometimes with transfers, also with backups ready to step up. I think we all know people love to bet on teams with 17 returning starters and a returning good Qb. I guess I am falling into that with Clemson and OU for instance. Some games I am projecting more are WKU, Stanford, and Tulsa . What are your top games you like for week 1 with both teams returning a lot of starters? Especially on Defense, I think people forget how much depth matters. 
 
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.but, this game is not in Manhatten, at night, against a Mack Brown coached Texas team. 


Major Applewhite STILL has a few bruises.........................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

IMO.....the games to play
  *are the ones where BOTH teams have most of LY's team back
      $$$   this is the best use of returning starters...to conclude many back means they will closely resemble LY's team.....prolly a bit better if team has shown a steady improvement.....NOT they will be GOOD
 
WHY?.....because it's easier to predict how they will play....SIMPLE
  *new HC?.....probably avoid 


1   NOTRE DAME -5  AT  TEXAS
 *maybe biggest no play on board

2  GEORGIA -3 *VS UNC 
       *kinda like Ga here.....page 179 in Steele....look at 2 things....rushing numbers given up LY by UNC (7.4/rush to Duke?).....and before LY.....STEADY DECLINE in most every category since Fedora's arrival in 2012.....QB was HUGE for them LY.....I expect his SOFT team to return here > Dawgs to run all over these boys....BUT based on uncertainty with Kirby as HC....maybe best to avoid
      

3  OKLAHOMA -10 AT HOUSTON
*STAY AWAY.....looks like Sooners roll....or might get beat....no way BOB takes my money here

4  KENTUCKY -7  VS SO MISS 
*Cats dicey but SMiss losing their HC...UK adding new OC Gran (finally using Boom W right?).......I lean UK here (great in these non-conf games as home favorite)....stay away proper read probably

5  FLORIDA -36.5 VS UMASS 
*Gators SMALL maybe OK....no way I play them here.....Covers blow out cappers only ha ....Gators play this type of stupid game every year right?

6   ARIZONA  (PICK) VS BYU 
*huge no play

7   GA TECH -3.5  VS BC
                                           *ditto




Indiana as a  (close to) 10 point road favorite?...missed the 3 or so....QB was huge LY..........PASS

Wake/Tulane?....you have NO IDEA how Tulane will play....so how can you PREDICT a score here???

SC / Vandy?.....ditto SC.....could win or get KILLED....Muschamp shown ZERO as HC
  *NOTE: the best DC in this game?....probably Derek Mason

Oregon St / Minny?...Andersen great HC > strong as road dog at Utah St ......I have no idea how they play here...may take him 3-4 years.....gotta be Minny or nothing > they should be the same....maybe better.....Kill a GREAT / underrated HC

Kan St / Tree?....looks like Snyder is done.....wanna bet against him?.....go right ahead...........

MIZZOU / WV....WV a terrible favorite.....Mizzou a rock solid dog under Pinkel....STAY THE HELLL AWAY

SMU/NT?....looks like Ponies on the upswing you bet.....you  have NO IDEA how NT will play here.....they QUIT LY  > so avoid if you can....they might adapt quickly to BIG system changes.....or struggle in a HUGE way...lean struggle

CLEMSON / AUBURN....I don't like this spot for DABO.....I don't think we have ANY IDEA how Auburn plays here = stay away

USC / BAMA?.....how will USC play?......nobody knows....Saban does great in this type of game.....without really trying too hard
  *missed the 14 or so with USC > pass

UCLA / Aggs?...........STAY THE HELLL AWAY....we have no idea how either will play.....both have been terribly overrated....I can't believe the faith by so many in A&M (John Football is gone ya' know)...Mora confuses me....he's supposed to be REALLY harsh / critical with his players....maybe why so UP/DOWN


LSU laying a big fat 10 AT Wisky?.......................maybe



 
 





Kill isn't the Head Coach at Minnesota.... he retired


double good to see ya again, i was bored and couldn't sleep so i hopped on covers, 1st time since bowl season and was happy to see your thread!
 
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Posted: #21
Bookie Excellent work as always 

UCLA is one of the most overrated schools in the country ... the PAC 12 is going to kick their A$s 

I have a feeling Clemson is going to Burn some Bank rolls week 1 ... NOT easy to go into Auburn and win 

Minnesota might be the real deal this season , I like that the line is climbing on the other side of 10 ... Gophers could have a real offense for the first time in a long time 

USC VS BAMA should be on my above list as well ... NO WAY would I touch this ...


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by gmanusc2001:

DU, u are right on the money with thise 2 SEC games...UK stands out to me...im even contemplating backing USM in that one....last team to posses the ball wins it i think


My Numbers lean on So Miss small,   This number looks fishy as well , should be closer to --4 IMNHO 


Thanks brother for stoppiing BY ...BOL
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #23
UPDATED LIST 

1   NOTRE DAME -5  AT  TEXAS

2  GEORGIA -3 *VS UNC  

3  OKLAHOMA -10 AT HOUSTON

4  KENTUCKY -7  VS SO MISS 

5  FLORIDA -36.5 VS UMASS 

6   ARIZONA  (PICK) VS BYU 

7   GA TECH -3.5  VS BC 

8  TEXAS A&M -1.5   VS UCLA 


9  *ALABAMA -10.5  VS USC 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

South Florida just went up to -28.5 and I bet they still get action / line keeps going up.

TD




Really In LOVE   with USF 
this season \


9-3-1 ATS last Year and could provide the same Value again 

My Numbers have USF winning by 37+ in week 1 



LETS MAKE SOME  BROTHER 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by binka34:




Kill isn't the Head Coach at Minnesota.... he retired


double good to see ya again, i was bored and couldn't sleep so i hopped on covers, 1st time since bowl season and was happy to see your thread!


YOU son...... are a genius....don't let anyone tell you different....

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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