Week 10 Thoughts.....

Insert cliche about winning money from your bookie here. 

10 Units NIU +8.5

Mr. RJSizzle you are one of the brightest man out there.  Good Luck to you!!!! By the way NIU is up to +9.5 at Heritage Sportsbook

Awesome Job RJ!

love your leans im already on a lot of themand yes it was hard to hit submit for the huge indiana line but i took the crimson and cream plus a million

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I dont think this is a hangover for Standford i think they get chewed out for not having a dominating win and blow out this week

Good luck this week. We see eye to eye on almost every game we're both on except for Baylor/Missou. I watched a lot of that game (sometimes it can help capping, sometimes it hurts capping but that's not the point)--Tamu literally gave that game away. Also was a big, emotional win for Missou. Walkoff ot win, lot of celebrating and hugging on the field afterward. Granted, Baylor's defense is so bad that it's even embarassing to call them a unit, but that Missou win was much more an overpriced tamu squad squandering it than a quality Missou club winning it. It's going to be tough for them to come back this week and be pumped for another Big 12 roadie, this time a night game against a team that badly needs the w. It's just a standard play for me, nothing more, but I just want to see what your reasoning is on Missou this week.

I did notice NCST has dropped 3 1/2 points so far...I know in state games like this are close, but I will lay off it. GL

You touched on my only three plays this week - Iowa, Colorado and Oregon St. I love them all. Good luck this week, bud.

against you the tonights game, like your card though and your thoughts, good luck

Do you like Harnish over 18 completions?

Great stuff from you and Shark.  Sometimes the best thing you can do is walk away.  Colorado is unplayable.  Stanford is unplayagainstable.  That doesn't make CU and OSU plays, though. Maryland is similar.  No value in the Hoos as road chalk, but they match up well with the Terps, who may have basically quit. 

I like Pit, but think Utah goes down by 20 in the desert.  I also like Kent (as much as anyone can like Kent), Missouri (who I never seem to get right), Ball, and Rice.  Disagree on ISU, who should win by 28 (though I get your reasoning; I think they are well coached, and will build off of last week). 

IA, Or St., BC, KS, CO, NIU, ULM, BALL, UCF

No opinion: Pitt, Kent, Rice, IND

Initial lean oppo in AZ and Baylor.  Love your thoughts on those two.

With you most everywhere, including BC, Colorado, Kansas, Northwestern, Iowa, ULM, and Oregon State. Lean with you on Kent State, Rice, Maryland, Ball State, Indiana, and UCF, but I doubt I'll play any of those. 

love em.

Why Mizzou? They are in a bad spot on the road vs an undervalued team......normally your cup of tea.

 

Like the rest.

 

Wrong team favored in the Michigan/iowa game, I will be placing some pleaser bets with the Hawkeyes.  They win Saturday, probably somewhat comfortably!  

As bad as we think they are, New Mexi State hasn't lost a game by more than 20 all year. Now they show up for a 12:30 start against a hungover Georgia team which doesn't have the offensive playmakers to cover this number (34).

Very rare that I like a dog catching an outrageous number but I like this one. A lot.

Excellent pickings lately my friend.

georgia's star rb is out too

My man, RJ... what's up.

You touched on a couple games I liked (Colorado, Maryland, IU, Oregon St.). I will probably be on all of these, albeit 1H plays as I like to take advantage of teams coming out flat.

Surprised to see you on Missouri... thought Baylor would actually be more your style.

I think a couple other possible favorites are in a good spot from a buy low/sell high perspective. Any thoughts on Cal -9.5 and Florida -13.5? Both are coming off losses, and both of their opponents (Washington St. and Vanderbilt) are coming off games where bettors saw them hang tough last week when most of their money was on Oregon and Arkansas. As a result these lines may be a shade too low?

I have noticed that you can make a killing betting against public underdogs. That's when you know a line is really messed up and Vegas is baiting people, because it takes a lot for the general public to bet an underdog. Florida, Cal, and Alabama could be good bets this week following this model.

I know Mizzou doesnt seem solid and Baylor is at home and thats sexy, but I just think Mizzou can make more stops on defense. Short line shows no confidence in the Bears. Baylor's season is in the tank. Not every team has a let-down, teams can build on big wins and with Baylor shitting all over themselves I think Mizzou can smell the blood in the water. Line value here bc Mizzou comes in terribly underrated. Even though there were two teams playing last week, nobody is giving them credit for anything. 

Public underdogs are basically what I refer to as suckers lines

Great week last week...


Surprised you dont have Wake on your leans? Imo, this is a great spot to hit Wake at a great number. Grobe will have these kids ready in their Superbowl this season. They have to have had this game circled for a while. Wake knows this is a rebuilding year, but they also know that winning a marquis game will help with recruiting. I think Wake has had a good season thus far capped with the FSU game...What better way to gain exposure than beating ND? The blowout vs UNC and NDs blowout of Navy only adds to the value here. Tanner Price can run an offense vs anyone...I think he can hold 2 TDs vs ND...Add in coaching, nothing really to lose angle, and a night game home atmosphere (national TV; even though all eyes will be on Bama/Lsu lol) against a public backed (road fave) darling and I think this has a great potential...small ML play as well.

Hated to see my Heels at the dreaded -5 death number. Lost all value when it went to 3. Just hope they can do something Butch couldnt, beat the redneck school down the road. I dont see this as  a letdown spot at all. UNC should be prepared :homer:

I love Iowa damnit. My white whale. They killed me on a hugea wager last year in that one bloodbath...

Like the other you mentioned. KU, Oregon State look solid too. Like South Cack...Ole Ball Coach wins ones like these...

Gl!