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Week 10 Thoughts.....

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Mr. Insight

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #51

Always a good read!

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Lucrative

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 1:19 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by mws:

Isn't it possiblle that Wake's Super Bowl is next week at Clemson? That game will decide the Atlantic Division. This looked like a big game before the season, but now it could be a lookahead spot.

Great point. But idk. Of course Wake is is a darkhorse to win the Atlantic, and this could very well be a lookahead game. But, I just dont see as a collegiate player at a small school like Wake how you cant be jacked about playing a team with a reputation like ND. I promise they have been looking forward to this night game all season. Regardless of ACC implications, imo they will be ready. Grobe is the type coach to have his team focused on the task at hand...

Good point though, something I totally overlooked

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 2:42 PM ET #53

Let me preface this by saying that it's not always possible for me to get the best line and sometimes I bet bad lines - I.e. NIU last night. I took 8.5 and missed out on anything over it.

But the idea when gambling i to get the best possible lines in all instances. It's one of the only ways to maximize your edge over the book. So if I missed 4.5 and 4 I am not taking 3.5.

About me liking SC. The line opened at 5. If it opened different for you, that's fine. Any favorite of 5 is a loser - no matter the teams on the field, which rarely matters. Couple that with the fact I think ark is trash, it wasn't very hard to place a bet.

About lines that move, I couldnt care less. As long as the move isn't stiffing me with a bad line, I dont pay attention. Steam means nothing. The opening line means everything.

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MJ2345

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 3:24 PM ET #54

Great read always RJ

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lindetrain

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 4:14 PM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Let me preface this by saying that it's not always possible for me to get the best line and sometimes I bet bad lines - I.e. NIU last night. I took 8.5 and missed out on anything over it.

But the idea when gambling i to get the best possible lines in all instances. It's one of the only ways to maximize your edge over the book. So if I missed 4.5 and 4 I am not taking 3.5.

About me liking SC. The line opened at 5. If it opened different for you, that's fine. Any favorite of 5 is a loser - no matter the teams on the field, which rarely matters. Couple that with the fact I think ark is trash, it wasn't very hard to place a bet.

About lines that move, I couldnt care less. As long as the move isn't stiffing me with a bad line, I dont pay attention. Steam means nothing. The opening line means everything.

Don't necessarily disagree with you wanting the best line, just found it interesting that a side you would absolutely love at 5 suddenly isn't a play now that you missed 4. I suppose 4 is key, but not nearly as key as 3, and I wouldn't think the move alone would deter you from playing the side unless it dropped under a FG.

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choiOi

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 4:17 PM ET #56

fade stanford off that huge win.

not knocking on ya...but are you sure this is the spot to fade Stanford? I mean they have been a $$$ making machine for ME/their backers....

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Jose_Reyes

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 4:52 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

fade stanford off that huge win.

not knocking on ya...but are you sure this is the spot to fade Stanford? I mean they have been a $$$ making machine for ME/their backers....

They have been a covering machine....so far. Keep in mind that we as bettors, are trying to predict the future. Stanford's success ATS thus far, makes a play on OSU that much more appealing.

Sandwich game between last weeks 3 OT game, and Oregon next week is a bad spot for the Cardinal. OSU has nothing to lose, and should give a great effort to take down a top team on their home field. The motivational edge goes to OSU at home.

Its less about stats, and more about human nature and motivation.

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Getty3

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 5:41 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

They have been a covering machine....so far. Keep in mind that we as bettors, are trying to predict the future. Stanford's success ATS thus far, makes a play on OSU that much more appealing.

Sandwich game between last weeks 3 OT game, and Oregon next week is a bad spot for the Cardinal. OSU has nothing to lose, and should give a great effort to take down a top team on their home field. The motivational edge goes to OSU at home.

Its less about stats, and more about human nature and motivation.

Like the FL/Vandy game this week. Vandy had both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler in attendance to watch them squander away what looked like a sure win vs. Arkansas in Nashville.

Meanwhile everyone in Gainesville is telling these boys that the fight for an all expenses paid bowl game to a faraway place is between them and Vanderbilt this week.

Mental advantage = Gators - This is their "look at us, we're really better than you think" type game.

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mmac66

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 6:19 PM ET #59

Kansas is damn near unbettable.....they give up nearly 8 yards per play on defense....and keep in mind this is skewed low because teams often stop trying to score after the half...they given up over 40 to every team they have played except McNeese State.....Ok State could have scored 100.

Kansas could win but they'll have to score 50 to do it.

I think Iowa State is probably over-valued and wouldn't lay that kind of number with them, but you can't take Kansas right now...they are as bad defensively as any team who has played in D-1 maybe ever....

It's a game that one should just steer clear of.......unless it's strictly a contrarian play.

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BigShotBill

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 6:51 PM ET #60

Hey Sizzle,

As you know I love Iowa this week just like you do. I posted a writeup in your thread last week. Couldnt be buying Iowa any lower and Michigan is awful on the road. Iowa is undefeated at home and only has 2 losses by 1 and 2 pts this year. Michigan also historically has strugged in Iowa as they lost in 03 and 09 and barely won in 07 in OT. I also love Mizz this week. Baylor might be going back home but their defense couldnt stop anyone and I think Mizz builds off that win last week.

Do you have any opinion on these games?

Louisville +13.5 at WV, Syracuse +2 at UConn, USF -2 vs Rutgers, Hawaii -3.5 vs Utah St. I don't have any leans on 3 of these games but I really like Louisville. Do you think they can cover for a 4th straight week or is it time to get off the wagon?

The only public dogs I see this week are Texas Tech +14.5 at Texas, UTEP +1 at Rice (I know you like Rice), and LSU +4.5 at Bama. I am surprised you are on LSU even though I know you always fade a favorite at -5. It just scares me the public/sqaures are all over Bama. It might be a no play for me I just wanted more of your opinion on this big game.

I think you are on the right sides with BC, Colorado, and Oregon State. How can anyone play those other sides in those 3 games? These 3 games are complete no plays for me as all 3 teams have shit offenses and QBs. I don't know how they will score enough pts but getting 2-3 tds plus is tempting.

Besides Iowa and Mizz I don't see alot of value on the board this week. I think large favorites are going down this week.

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BigShotBill

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 6:53 PM ET #61

I forgot Penn State beat Iowa by 10 and the public/squares are on LSU not Bama. Sorry, its been a long day.

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Getty3

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by mmac66:

Kansas is damn near unbettable.....they give up nearly 8 yards per play on defense....and keep in mind this is skewed low because teams often stop trying to score after the half...they given up over 40 to every team they have played except McNeese State.....Ok State could have scored 100.

Kansas could win but they'll have to score 50 to do it.

I think Iowa State is probably over-valued and wouldn't lay that kind of number with them, but you can't take Kansas right now...they are as bad defensively as any team who has played in D-1 maybe ever....

It's a game that one should just steer clear of.......unless it's strictly a contrarian play.

Hi, Mac !

Kansas for betting overs I love their defensive incompetence. KU/ISU Over 100

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larryhughes

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 7:05 PM ET #63

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redsox5831

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 7:21 PM ET #64

RJ, Im a big fan of you and your thread.. had my best weekend of the year last week thanks to you..

im just curious about this -5 thing.. im relatively new to college football and this is the first I have heard of it.. Is it something you have noticed or are there numbers to back it up? I only ask because I like Arkansas

thanks

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Skipster

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 7:49 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

Like the FL/Vandy game this week. Vandy had both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler in attendance to watch them squander away what looked like a sure win vs. Arkansas in Nashville.

Meanwhile everyone in Gainesville is telling these boys that the fight for an all expenses paid bowl game to a faraway place is between them and Vanderbilt this week.

Mental advantage = Gators - This is their "look at us, we're really better than you think" type game.

"but enough about this betting nonsense, let's talk about my team..."

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BandosWB

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 7:50 PM ET #66

I have been doing a bit of research into spreads that are 4+ pts off the Sag ratings. Strangely, they correlate to many of your plays. Examples:
Clemson should have been favored over GT by over a TD - but they put out a little 3.
Wisky should have been favored over NEB by only 3, yet they put out 10.
etc.

Based on my research, home teams that you have to pay a premium (6+pts off the line) for (ie should get 14 but only get 7, should lay 3 but have to lay 10) are a whopping 40-21 this year, and 24-9 in weeks 5-9.

Many of them have been YOUR plays. Like NIU last night that should have gotten near 14 pts according to Sag ratings, yet opened at 7.

Not sure what you do with that, but this seems to indicate where the linesmakers are shading one side to get more action against it.

Also, you say that weeks 5-9 are your best weeks. We are now in week 10. Does your approach change?

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Skipster

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 7:55 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Great stuff from you and Shark. Sometimes the best thing you can do is walk away. Colorado is unplayable. Stanford is unplayagainstable. That doesn't make CU and OSU plays, though. Maryland is similar. No value in the Hoos as road chalk, but they match up well with the Terps, who may have basically quit.

I like Pit, but think Utah goes down by 20 in the desert. I also like Kent (as much as anyone can like Kent), Missouri (who I never seem to get right), Ball, and Rice. Disagree on ISU, who should win by 28 (though I get your reasoning; I think they are well coached, and will build off of last week).

Why?

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:02 PM ET #68

Just wrapped a softball win in central park. Made a play in the hole between third and short that even made me blush. I'll get back to as many as i can tomorrow.

But, BSB, finally someone else who likes mizzou. I just don't get the Baylor love.

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TopHog

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:20 PM ET #69

Arkansas rolls this week boys. Always have had USCe's number. I know a lot of people will go with USCe this week because of the last 2 weeks but I haven't put money on an Arkansas game all year....until I saw this line.

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:35 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain:

Don't necessarily disagree with you wanting the best line, just found it interesting that a side you would absolutely love at 5 suddenly isn't a play now that you missed 4. I suppose 4 is key, but not nearly as key as 3, and I wouldn't think the move alone would deter you from playing the side unless it dropped under a FG.

You pretty much nailed it on the head. I think 4 is valuable. I think 3 is trash.

But also, its about the line. If a favorite opens at 5 or 5.5, I am fading them. Its just that I dont always get those lines posted to me. I get a 4.5 or 4. So I have to take it, based on experience of anyone favored by 5 or 5.5 never covering. And this is in direct contrast to my getting the best line theory.

If games ended on 5 ever, I would worry. But since games end on 4, I have to ignore the small line move.

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:36 PM ET #71

Linde - Its mainly the fact that I think 4 is more valuable than 3, immensely.

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:39 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

fade stanford off that huge win.

not knocking on ya...but are you sure this is the spot to fade Stanford? I mean they have been a $$$ making machine for ME/their backers....

I am glad you arent knocking me...after the last two seasons here, I think I would deserve better, lol.

I am not sure this is the spot to fade Stanford. I am not sure of anything. This is gambling.

But, there is a reason a reason I have waited this long. I finally feel they are overvalued.

You and I will never, ever see things alike. I am surprised you come to this thread. We just have two fundamentally different approaches.

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:45 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by mmac66:

Kansas is damn near unbettable.....they give up nearly 8 yards per play on defense....and keep in mind this is skewed low because teams often stop trying to score after the half...they given up over 40 to every team they have played except McNeese State.....Ok State could have scored 100.

Kansas could win but they'll have to score 50 to do it.

I think Iowa State is probably over-valued and wouldn't lay that kind of number with them, but you can't take Kansas right now...they are as bad defensively as any team who has played in D-1 maybe ever....

It's a game that one should just steer clear of.......unless it's strictly a contrarian play.

Jesus, Mac....I didnt even know you bet CFB. Great to see you around man!

Anyway....I hate the idea of contrarianism. I hate the idea of public or sharp or who is betting on whom. Its just such a bad basis for an argument, I run away from anyone who references anything of the sort.

I think KU has a huge coaching advantage and they have nothing to play for. Their season literally means nothing. They have no expectations on them whatsoever. But with a good coach, you stay motivated throughout the year. You relish the idea of ruining someone elses season.

With Iowa State coming in off cloud 9, is there a better time? They are inherently overvalued - I mean, can you tell me a team that has won by 30 to come home as a favorite not to an inflated line? Does that even exist?

So, again, it goes to gambling 101. Is it ever wise to pay a premium? Is it ever wise to lay road chalk? (dont even talk to me about OU last week). Is it ever wise to play a team off a huge win? Is it ever wise to lay points with a team who isnt comfortable in that role?

It really only leads me one way.

Some people see advantages on games that I just dont get. I wouldnt be surprised if people dont see this game the way I do.

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RJSizzle

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Posted: Nov. 2, 2011 - 11:53 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by BigShotBill:

Hey Sizzle,

As you know I love Iowa this week just like you do. I posted a writeup in your thread last week. Couldnt be buying Iowa any lower and Michigan is awful on the road. Iowa is undefeated at home and only has 2 losses by 1 and 2 pts this year. Michigan also historically has strugged in Iowa as they lost in 03 and 09 and barely won in 07 in OT. I also love Mizz this week. Baylor might be going back home but their defense couldnt stop anyone and I think Mizz builds off that win last week.

Do you have any opinion on these games?

Louisville +13.5 at WV, Syracuse +2 at UConn, USF -2 vs Rutgers, Hawaii -3.5 vs Utah St. I don't have any leans on 3 of these games but I really like Louisville. Do you think they can cover for a 4th straight week or is it time to get off the wagon?

The only public dogs I see this week are Texas Tech +14.5 at Texas, UTEP +1 at Rice (I know you like Rice), and LSU +4.5 at Bama. I am surprised you are on LSU even though I know you always fade a favorite at -5. It just scares me the public/sqaures are all over Bama. It might be a no play for me I just wanted more of your opinion on this big game.

I think you are on the right sides with BC, Colorado, and Oregon State. How can anyone play those other sides in those 3 games? These 3 games are complete no plays for me as all 3 teams have shit offenses and QBs. I don't know how they will score enough pts but getting 2-3 tds plus is tempting.

Besides Iowa and Mizz I don't see alot of value on the board this week. I think large favorites are going down this week.

Although I think organized religion is a huge game of telephone - AMEN!!! You are preaching to the choir.

Why does anyone like Baylor this weekend? Geez. Color me crazy. Baylor doesnt stand a chance. They are worse everywhere. RGIII is not an entire team. Why cant Mizzou build off a nice win on the road last week? I dont see every win as a let-down next week. I see some teams putting things together at the right time.

I think its time to get off the Lou wagon, although WVA isnt going to break 30. Tough to cover 2 TDs.

I really have no lean on any of the other games you posted. Cuse you cant take on the road. That game gets thrown out the window.

USF/Rutgers, I have no idea why either team has an advantage. The line sucks.

Love Rice. I mean, Tulsa, favored? On the road? Against Rice? Have you seen who Rice has played?

Dont get confused, though. There is no public bettor taking Bama this weekend. Just the sharpest people you will ever see placing a bet. LSU is fools gold and I am middling my GOY line. If you know someone playing LSU, are you really trying to tell me that person isnt a long-term loser? Every losing bettor I know likes LSU - and this is after Bowling Green on the road last week.

And yeah, I have no idea how you play on USC or Stanford after their game last week. Thats nuts.