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Week 10 Thoughts.....

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Posted: #76
at this pt, which games are definitely playing, RJ?  Thanks.  Great week last week.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

I have been doing a bit of research into spreads that are 4+ pts off the Sag ratings.  Strangely, they correlate to many of your plays.  Examples:
Clemson should have been favored over GT by over a TD - but they put out a little 3.
Wisky should have been favored over NEB by only 3, yet they put out 10.
etc.

Based on my research, home teams that you have to pay a premium (6+pts off the line) for (ie should get 14 but only get 7, should lay 3 but have to lay 10) are a whopping 40-21 this year, and 24-9 in weeks 5-9.

Many of them have been YOUR plays.  Like NIU last night that should have gotten near 14 pts according to Sag ratings, yet opened at 7.

Not sure what you do with that, but this seems to indicate where the linesmakers are shading one side to get more action against it.

Also, you say that weeks 5-9 are your best weeks.  We are now in week 10.  Does your approach change?

So that makes me really upset. I always thought I was getting jobbed on lines. Now, I really know I am. By more than a FG in some cases. 

But, also, I dont know how you make Clemson a TD favorite in that game. I guess any average joe might, but really? A TD? Doesnt that just seem ludicrous?

Your research is great. People should really take notice. Granted, losing money is the one way people really pay attention, but your #s speak volumes. 

Approach doesnt really change from here on out. Its just that the lines get tighter for players like me. Favorite bettors think they are getting steals - Wisconsin at 25.5, Ohio State at 27.5, Toledo at 7 - but I think I am getting scammed. I play less plays. Thats all I really try to do. I mean, I killed it week 10 last year, won money week 11. There is no reason to change styles, but I start paying a premium - as you noted in the games above and I have to try to avoid paying one whenever I can. 
 
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Posted: #78
Bandos, its a shame I dont see more of your posts. You really offer great insight. 


 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

at this pt, which games are definitely playing, RJ?  Thanks.  Great week last week.

I have a 100 Unit teaser on the Patriots -1.5 and the Jets +8.5 

I have 10 Units on: ULM, COL, UMD, ORE ST, IOWA, KU


 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by redsox5831:

RJ, Im a big fan of you and your thread.. had my best weekend of the year last week thanks to you..

im just curious about this -5 thing.. im relatively new to college football and this is the first I have heard of it.. Is it something you have noticed or are there numbers to back it up? I only ask because I like Arkansas

thanks


I dont have #s to back anything up. I dont think looking at widely available #s helps you with anything.

Just take a look at favorites of 5 and 5.5 - only the opener. See how they fare. I have seen them lose for years at a clip. 

I have no #s to back this up. 

 
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Posted: #81

I just wanted to stop by and tell you that I think you do a great job on reading lines in college football.  This is one sport I am trying to continue to get better at as I still am much better in the pro's.  Reading posts from guys like you is very valuable.

Anyways, you on anything tomorrow night.  I am most assuredly going to be on UCF tomorrow night, although I haven't locked it in yet.  Also, glad to see you are on CU as that one is on my list of plays as well.

 
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Posted: #82
Aggie - You need to have more confidence. While I appreciate what you say, you are one of 10 threads I open up here every week. You are better than the season you are having. I give you the time of day and you deserve it. Get that straight. 

I am on UCF, just hoping it drops to 1. Regardless, its a play up to 3. I love CU. 

Glad you get some use from my threads. Not many people can understand my approach and I am glad its getting a better reception this year. 

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Aggie - You need to have more confidence. While I appreciate what you say, you are one of 10 threads I open up here every week. You are better than the season you are having. I give you the time of day and you deserve it. Get that straight. 

I am on UCF, just hoping it drops to 1. Regardless, its a play up to 3. I love CU. 

Glad you get some use from my threads. Not many people can understand my approach and I am glad its getting a better reception this year. 

Much appreciated. Don't get me wrong, I am confident in my plays, but just realize that the NFL and college basketball are my two best sports, that's all.

Good luck to you this weekend.

 
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Posted: #84
 
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Posted: #85
Dont underestimate yourself. Even if things are going well for you monetarily, your insight and approach is one of the best here. You are extremely valuable to the CFB forum.  

GL man. 



 
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Posted: #86
ULM? UMD?

what are those again? sorry for silly question
 
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Posted: #87
fuck yo couch
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

 
 
who isnt going to bet on florida state? bc covers. somehow. someway. 

Yup.  Straight line play here.  No capping involved.


i bet on colorado at 21.5. usc will sleepwalk through this game. tough loss to take. hangover city. 

Agreed.  But can't take shit teams anymore.


kentucky is good enough to beat ole miss. thats a silly line.  Kentucky almost covered last week in garbage time.  They get it done at home this week.  ML play.

virginia should not be laying road chalk in conference. its nuts. maryland on principle.  

Don't you know?  VA is the bandwagon of the week team.  Terps ML.


iowa state beats a horribly overrated texas tech team and all of a sudden they are laying 2 scores? hahahahaha. kansas has nothing to lose here. i think they come in loose and pull an upset.  

Kansas is the worst team in NCAAF.  Not really, but lost a lot fucking around with this team.

 
nc st line has dropped too much. no value.  

Plenty of value.  Take the ML.  This is a sweat session.  

sitting on lsu +6.5 from a goy bet. think bama wins, though. drats.  Taking home team here. 



love pitt. their offense is tough to swallow and i think cincy will have their hands full.  

No more Graham.  No more 30+ point games.



fade stanford off that huge win. even luck creamed his seersuckers after that win. they are going to be coming in on a cloud.  

Why fade a team that's on a 15 spread streak?  Why not wait for it to end then fade them the next game?




thoughts? drop em. 


Yeah.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:


I have a 100 Unit teaser on the Patriots -1.5 and the Jets +8.5 

I have 10 Units on: ULM, COL, UMD, ORE ST, IOWA, KU


100 Units?!  I know this is the college forum, but care to elaborate the bet that's 40% greater than all your other bets combined this week?

 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:


I dont have #s to back anything up. I dont think looking at widely available #s helps you with anything.

Just take a look at favorites of 5 and 5.5 - only the opener. See how they fare. I have seen them lose for years at a clip. 

I have no #s to back this up. 

Thanks for the feedback RJ..

I haven't seen you in any other forums on here (MLB, NFL, NHL) do you bet anything other then CFB?

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:


I dont have #s to back anything up. I dont think looking at widely available #s helps you with anything.

Just take a look at favorites of 5 and 5.5 - only the opener. See how they fare. I have seen them lose for years at a clip. 

I have no #s to back this up. 

Thanks for the feedback RJ..

I haven't seen you in any other forums on here (MLB, NFL, NHL) do you bet anything other then CFB?

 
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Posted: #92
damn, sorry for the double post
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by SiuLungBao:

ULM? UMD?

what are those again? sorry for silly question


Louisiana-Monroe

Maryland
 
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Posted: #94
I have a 100 Unit teaser on the Patriots -1.5 and the Jets +8.5 
 
 
 
You post NFL? I remember back in the day you did. I have really struggled with NFL the past few seasons. I play mostly "action" plays as opposed to CFB and CBB plays...Something to just enjoy on the tube with afternoon hangover helpers at the pub...
 
Curious as to when NFL is discussed as I LOVE to tail NFL. I dont even try to pretend to know how to bet it...
 
Also, I'm w/ composite. I wanna here about that teaser when you get a minute...
 
 
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Insert cliche about winning money from your bookie here. 

Great week of College Football last week. Some seasons were absolutely crushed. 

i bit on NIU at 8.5. i dont get this line. its higher than i wouldve set it, but this isnt my job. harnish is the best player on the field, imo.  This was a no brainer, who is Toledo to lay 7 to anyone.?.

who isnt going to bet on florida state? bc covers. somehow. someway. My thoughts exactly, I think everyone will be on them tonight..

ucf is nothing if they dont beat tulsa. what a disappointing season. I disagree i think Tulsa will be able to score some points here..

kent state should win at home again. 

i bet on colorado at 21.5. usc will sleepwalk through this game. tough loss to take. hangover city. Down to 21 now,, moving the right way, nice to get that hook..

eastern michigan has been on a nice run, but ball state should sneak a win here. emu in the favorite role? yikes. 

kentucky is good enough to beat ole miss. thats a silly line. Got to side with the home team here, Ole Miss is shit..

virginia should not be laying road chalk in conference. its nuts. maryland on principle. Everybody will be High on Virginia off a win at Miami..

indiana is one of those where you dont want to hit submit. its going to cover, but itll be ugly. ohio state on cloud 9 after that win last week. still celebrating. Indiana...

iowa state beats a horribly overrated texas tech team and all of a sudden they are laying 2 scores? hahahahaha. kansas has nothing to lose here. i think they come in loose and pull an upset.They have NO business laying 2 scores to anyone...
sort of think northwestern could cover that line. 

what a great time to bet on iowa. team has a lot to prove and has been an afterthought all year. huge win for them here could do wonders for the team. think ferentz has his boys motivated. Everyone all over Michigan, but who have they beaten?? That 7-1 record is very decieving..

ou going to be overpriced coming off a drubbing of a not so good kst team. have to hand it to the books, though. they have made a killing on damn near every kst game this year. Okl here, think A&M covered their game for the month last week, coaching bites em in the ass again, terrible 2nd half team..
i have south carolina su. the dreaded 5 line. I like that 5 too but cant go against Ark offense, think they wake up this week
nc st line has dropped too much. no value. Think everyone will be on NC, the hook might come in handy here..

sitting on lsu +6.5 from a goy bet. think bama wins, though. drats. Love LSU at 5, 1 pt win by Bama, why would it be anything else??

this is one of those games utah wins. 

think mizzou puts a run together here. they should beat baylor like a drum. Exactly, line opened up as a pick at home for a Baylor team that everyone thinks will bounce back, dont think so Mizzou still high after winning at A&M and continues here..

love pitt. their offense is tough to swallow and i think cincy will have their hands full. Ranked team getting points, dont think so, Pitt rolls somehow..

rice should get a home win. They should NOT be favored here.. and thats the reason they win..

ulm should beat ull. ulm has played a monster schedule. dont fault them for it. 

fade stanford off that huge win. even luck creamed his seersuckers after that win. they are going to be coming in on a cloud. 




thoughts? drop em. 

GL RJ...
 
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Posted: #96

Maybe that teaser comment was spoken in jest

 

 

I am slow at the office today, so Im gonna bug you..

 

Care to elaborate on the Bama/LSU game? What is this GOY line? I thought maybe you somehow got a generous line on Bama at say -3 and was looking to hedge/middle now...

Confused.

 

Also, do you see the UNC/NCSU line sitting at 3.5 or will it be beat back to 4 by kick?

 

Thanks.

 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Bandos, its a shame I dont see more of your posts. You really offer great insight. 




Piggybacking off Bandos about Sagarin ratings..

UM is rated 84.4 and Iowa is 69.4, a difference of 15 rating pts, yet UM is only favored by 4..

just something to think about..
 
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Posted: #98
Lucrative: GOY line is a line made available in August for certain high-profile games later in the season. I also have one this week that I was thinking about middling--Arkansas -3.5. 

RJ: When you talk about opening lines of 5 or 5.5, where is the opening you're interested in? You said this about Washington State over Oregon State a couple weeks ago, which opened at -3, not -5, almost everywhere online (but did get crushed). I saw Arkansas at -4.5 on Sunday night. What opening do you find it important, and where are you getting it? 

Also, I'm with you on 4 being as important as 3. Thought I was alone on that. And on 11 and 18 being as important as 10 and 17. 
 
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Posted: #99
Well, now that I have been called a fake sharp, and/or sharp wannabe for thinking of playing BC, all the stars have aligned.  BC it is tonight.  And UCF.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



Piggybacking off Bandos about Sagarin ratings..

UM is rated 84.4 and Iowa is 69.4, a difference of 15 rating pts, yet UM is only favored by 4..

just something to think about..


FYI: Home teams that you have to pay a 6+ premium to bet ON: 
IA, GA (tho now scratched), ECU, UAB, UCF

Home teams you pay 4-6 pt premium
ARK, Fresno, OK, FAU, OR ST, SDSU, OK ST, NC ST, Ohio (winner)
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