Week #11 Wine and Cheese

Wanna make some more public bets but I like my teasers and sides..... got waylayed on the NIU Under however, but I knew it was a risk vs WMU and only bet HALF U. Surely, I was thinking NIU would dictate pace of the game with their defense. WRONG! (2nd week in a row this happened. Last week I thought Ole Miss-Arky would be a O/D- line slugfest - NOPE!)

-Florida-Texas line won't budge so I will be patient....

-Minny-Rutgers line about right and flip a coin....does Minny breakdown vs a similar type of team and on the road a lot lately it seems? Or do they keep it rolling playing well?

-Cuse with revenge @B.C. who I like, but Cuse one win away from decent bowl with 7 wins ....I am hesitating on B.C. now

-Army vs a high octane offense with a gunslinger at QB and not sure if Army's own gun is available...lean home team now because of Chandler's stats ...wow!

-Clemson @ VTECH...which team will show up for each side?

-Is Georgia -2.5 a sucker line after last year stomp on Ole Miss and this Miss team much better and more mature than last year...and Georgia is weaker /less experienced /skilled in my opinion, but not lesser coached...hmmm

-Colorado now -3.5 going into a nasty offensive home team who will have crowd at their backs

-same with S.Carolina after a sublime performance at home vs a conference rival and now facing a plucky, talented and sometimes gritty Vandy team

I am thinking maybe Wizerguy has the right idea and siding with a dominant Ducks team at -24 with home crowd  facing a BIG 10 team lacking zip this year vs good teams

LSU I like and teased them..... I think I got what I could out of early lines but now its in-game or just keep waiting for something to appear with a line change or someone finding an edge in a thread post

BOL everyone this week  - feel free to dangle an idea for me to ponder  doing a lot of head and ass scratching this week 

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SCAR 3 straight covers by 17,23,27. Vandy+ is your teaser play.

NTEX+ teams that score lots are the best dogs.

CSTL CAR +  last week they were hungover after playing 2 great conference teams. App played better last week but they are not having an elite season  CSTL for the bounce back.

Utah+  they have been favorites 10 times in a row before this game. 35-5 SU last 40 home games.  BYU lines have been a lot of dogs and as I look at it they have achieved a lot.   The fact is though they had low expectations and simple lines.  Thats not the case here.  BYU is the better team on paper but I am sure Utah wants to beat the best conference team this week.  Utes have the strong history to make the upset. Utah might have only scored 20 points the last 2 home games but defensively have only surrendered  an average of 12 pts a game this season when at home.

Liberty -  M. TEN ST is trash.  Lib is 2-9 last 11 but after a disgusting loss to KENESAW ST they should get back on track here.  LIB in their 7 games have lines totaling -140 average line per game -20. The books wanted them in regression and it happened so far.  Mid Ten was sizeable dogs to UTEP and KENESAW ST, please!

NAVY -

 after 5 straight covers the failed the last 2 weeks by a total of 50 points combined against their last 2 lines.  This type of misfortune causes an over reaction. S FLA not having a good season, only beating the teams they should.

Thought I would pass these along. I will try to post a thread later this week. If not I have these at least.

https://youtu.be/nzSOXofqe74?si=yzB1e-kjHnHxcWst

Interesting..... would have to play it a few times to appreciate as there are some good layers...has a little R. Halford in him but wish he would hold a note before switching his octave 

Thanks for the pick suggestions. Been super busy bro 

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

 i dont focus on his vocals its the guitar and rhythm 

Yes, rate those highly .... but metal needs the front man to not take away from the genius .....Black Sabbath is the very best for that..... Few better than Tommi Iommi on guitar but Ozzy and Ronnie James Dio take the bass and drum layers into a new wizardry layer with their voices and notes..... I honestly think Led Zeppelin pales in comparison to B.S. and Judas Priest for quality licks that push every level and layer ....but Zep has some unreal arrangements and Bonham-Page are hard to match

Not about 'hits' and overplaying metal and you know that ....its about those layers of 'nasty' brilliance

@Last2thirst

REALLY JUST ENJOY THE GUITAR AND DRUMS.  I CANT GET ENOUGH

CSTL WINS 

Anyone interested in Hoops....started my analytics for NCAAB this week and a thread. 4 Plays today but they are exploratory testing some trends I am finding with lines. Hard to go into January NCAAB season if you don't start the work with 368+ teams 

Football is my main focus/time until we get to shit bowls > pivot to NCAAB for a bit and then I transition back to Top bowls and playoffs

Have to admit, there hasn't been much 'line drama' this week so I look forward to tapping some angles and sitting back with a cold one enjoying the games

Summary of Plays this week:

 SIDES/TOTALS:

Play #1 as soon as I can > Indiana -12.5 x 1 U

Play #2 - NIU - W. Mich Under 52.5 x HALF U 

Play #3 - Nevada @ Boise OVER 60 x 1U 

Exotic Plays: 7 pt Teaser 

Iowa St +4 with  Cincy +3 with LSU +10 

Combo those for HALF U or $30 each with:

1. Louisiana -7  ($30)

2. Louisiana Over 53.5 ($30)

3. Vandy +10.5 (H) 

4. Oklahoma +9.5 (H) 

5. Indiana -7  (H)

6. Ole Miss +9.5 ($30) 

7. Over Colorado 55.5 ($30) 

8. Duke +10  ($30) 

9. W. Michigan +8.5 ($30)  NO

Just played my teasers again but 3 ways with Iowa +5 and LSU +9.5 as KEYS with all plays that I could (regretting not playing Texas when I heard who was QB for Florida):

Changes:

-Vandy +13

-Louisiana OV 53

-Oklahoma +4

-Indiana -7.5

-Colorado OV 54.5

Love it BOL Thirst 

Thanks Degen 

Bearcats coming back and have the ball down only 3 pts.......you never know 

One of the most topsy turvy seasons in a while...I love the drama but my pocketbook is suffering from inconsistency. Teams play great for 2-3 Q's and then cough it up. 

I would really like to see an SEC vs BIG10 matchup playoff  (8 best vs  8 best and last team standing!!)

There really are not a lot of other teams that can slide into the Top 12 and hang with them out of those 2 Conferences...

Top 4 Seeds For Playoff as of now: ( based on Top 4 Conf leaders)

1. Oregon  (Big 10)

2. Texas  (SEC)

3. BYU    (Big 12) << goes to position #4 if loses tonight

4. Miami  (ACC)    

My Actual Best Teams Ranking:

1. Oregon  (zero losses) 

2. Ohio St. (best 1 loss team in strongest Conference)  

3. Texas   (2nd best 1 loss team)

4. Indiana (no losses)

-------------------------------------

5. Penn St. (4th best 1 loss team) 

6. Tennessee (5th best 1 loss team)  << SEC is slighter weaker conference this season

7. Alabama (best 2 loss team)

8.  Notre Dame (3rd best 1 loss team)

9.  Ole Miss   (2nd best 2 loss team)

10. Georgia   (3rd best 2 loss team)

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11 BYU  (no losses)  << IF  BYU wins

12 Miami  (5th best 1 loss team) << 2nd weakest conference in Power 4 (moves up if BYU loses)

-----------------------------------------------

13 SMU (6th best 1 loss team)  << moves down one position if BYU loses to Utah

14 Texas AM  (4th best 2 loss team) > moves to 13 if BYU loses

15  Boise  (7th best 1 loss team)

----------------------Maybe --------------

16. Army (no losses / weakest SOS)

17. Clemson (5th best 2 loss team)

18. LSU  (best 3 loss team)

19. South Carolina (2nd best 3 loss team)

20. Colorado  (6th best 2 loss team)

BEST TEAMS WHEN AT BEST DOMINATING FORM WITH THEIR TALENT AFTER VIEWING MANY GAMES:

1. Ohio State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Texas - Ole Miss - Georgia tie