Posted:
#76
Great write up an analysis...I am on some of these also....THX for sharing!
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Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:
Write-Up #1:
Clemson (-6) at Louisville ... 0 Units
Power ratings: Clemson (10th) at Louisville (38th) = projected spread of -8
One of the biggest "upsets" of last week was Louisville going down to, what should be, a highly respected Conference USA squad in Houston. The smart people who took my advice on Houston +13.5 (and ignored all of my other picks) were happily rewarded. I informed everyone that Louisville is just not the same team offensively as in years past.
However, there is room for optimism now for the Cardinals - if their head coach is smart. QB Kyle Bolin looks like the potential answer at quarterback. He threw for 157 yards on 18 attempts (8.7 ypa) 1 TD 0 ints vs. Houston. Last season if it wasn't for his performance Louisville would have lost to Kentucky at home (381 yards, 68%, 3 tds, 1 int).
I suspected last week UL would look past Houston because of this Thursday night ACC opener vs. Clemson and I was right. Well, now they will be completely focused for this game. I expect better production from the quarterback position if Bolin plays as well as a more focused defense.
On the other side, Clemson - like UL - is not the same team as last year. Like Louisville, they lost 4 starters from the OL (and all 5 if C Norton doesn't play). On the other side of the ball, Clemson must replace nearly their entire DL 2-deep from last year except DE Shaq Dawson. Replacing DE Vic Beasley (top 10 pick) and ILB Stephon Anthony (1st rd pick) will be impossible.
If you are looking for an edge here, you can go one of two ways. If you are looking purely at the personnel - I think Clemson has the edge here. Louisville struggled to run the football against Houston and I projected a lot of problems for them on the OL before the season started. If Louisville struggles to run the ball, I'm just not confident in their receiving corps no matter who is at quarterback...but Bolin does give them hope. The talent just isn't there at RB or OL for me to believe they can get a backdoor cover - so it has to come from the QB or WR corps.
The other edge I believe here is psychological - but one can make the argument is a wash. Clemson has had this game circled all offseason. They will just as pumped to play on ESPN on the road as Louisville is. However, Louisville is coming off a bad loss. I do think they will be very focused for this game - a game they were looking ahead to anyway. Funny how a bad loss can make the practices 10x better, but it does.
Shockingly, the line opened as a pick and has been bet up to -6 for the road fave. As shocking that the game opened as a pick is (which means my powers probably have Clemson overrated - but I love QB Watson), I think the line is solid. I could see Louisville play like a completely different team vs. Clemson. Using a 2-QB scheme with Lamar Jackson in the read option and Kyle Bolin in the passing game could work. Plus, Clemson's OL, DL, and LB corps are complete unknowns.
Key injuries: Louisville's 2 best WRs - James Quick and Jamari Staples - are still doubtful for Clemson. TE Cole Hikutini is questionable for UL. Center Ryan Norton is questionable for Clemson (replaceable - not an NFL Draft prospect).
I'll pass
So disappointed in myself for not even CONSIDERING the under here. I knew UL has serious issues at WR and OL. UL's defense is good enough to hold Clemson under 30 points. O/U was 54...should have put a unit or two on the under. Terrible.
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Posted:
#78
Clemson - Louisville box score + drive notes:
Wayne Gallman 24 carries, 139 yards (longest only 25 = efficiency) ... 5.7 yds/clip
Brandon Radcliff: 19 carries, 45 yards, longest run of 8 yards, 2.4/clip
UL 2/14 on 3rd down. Clemson 5/14 on 3rd down.
UL offensive drives: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, FG (76 yd drive), TD (58 yd drive, clemson w/ 13 yd personal foul penalty), punt, INT, downs, missed FG (clemson 10 yd penalty, 38 yd missd FG)
Mediocre showing by UL offensive line. I've been saying all year how UL has a bad offense and they still do.
Clemson offensive drives: INT, punt, punt, TD (61 yd drive), punt, punt, INT, FG (56 yd drive), TD (62 yd drive), fumble, FG (54 yd drive), punt, punt
Not terrible from Clemson considering it was a road game + UL still has a good defense.
Need to watch tape to evaluate Clemson OL + Louisville DL. Want to see those INTs as well for Watson
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Posted:
#80
Write-Up #16:
Western Kentucky at Indiana (-2) ... 1 unit
Power ratings: WKU (76th) at Indiana (91st) = Indiana -1
There are a couple reasons I like Indiana here and another reason why I am hesitant - hence a 1 unit play. Let's get started.
1. Jordan Howard is a BEAST. Like Biggie said, "If you don't know, now you know." UAB went 6-6 last year. And the only reason they won was because of Jordan Howard (Vince's brother from Friday Night Lights? Probably).
Rushing yards from last 11 games from Howard between UAB + Indiana: 159, 145, 262, 168, 148, 167, 90, 121, 67, 183, 102. That 183 # was vs. Western Kentucky in 5 (5.4/clip). Howard is a workhorse back who can handle the load and get explosive runs. Howard was #5 in the nation last year in runs of 10+ yards (50 total). He doesn't have a lot of speed and that's why only 9 of those 50 runs went for 20+ yards. Still, he has good vision, instincts, and power so that's why he is so efficient. FIU return the majority of their front 7 from last year and he still killed them for 159 yards (longest run only 32). He is going to destroy WKU on Saturday. WKU's DL goes 25 - 295 - 285 - 230 across and they only have one starter above 6'2.
2. WKU has a gaping hole at runningback. On the flipside, RB Leon Allen is done for the season. WKU's offense wasn't as efficient in second half as first vs. LA Tech because Allen got injured on their first drive in 2nd half. WKU only had one TD drive in 2nd half, and punted on 4/7 possessions. #2 RB to start the year, Ace Wales, is also hurt for WKU. Now they are relying on a true freshmen (recruiting services tabbed him as a LB) - D'Andre Ferby. Allen was 12/81 (6.8/clip) vs. LATech and Ferby was 14/39 (2.8/clip) and his longest run was 7 yards. WKU wants to have a balanced offense. Last year they threw for 552 attempts and rushed for 429 attempts. Allen and Wales accounted for 83% of their rushing attempts. Their running game is screwed.
3. Starting corner Wonderful Terry is out for WKU this week. We know Indiana will be able to run the ball. If they can exploit WKU's backups then they'll keep the ball out of QB Doughty's hands. To be fair, FS Chase Dutra and CB Rashard Fant are questionable right now for Indiana. Doesn't sound too serious they will probably play from what I've read.
Now why do I not absolutely, positively love IU here?
Their defense in W1 was abominable, and they weren't terrible vs FIU but probably could have been better. QB Alex McGough had 249 yards passing (6.7 ypa...6.1 ypa last year), and they held #1 RB Gardner to 3.4 yds/clip. However, against Southern Illinois they didn't get off the bus. They made SIU's QB look like a Heisman contender: 411 passing yards and 77% given up. Their QB also rushed for 106 yards as well. Other SIU backs rushed for 4.9/clip. Terrible.
So that's why I don't trust Indiana. When you give up 13.3 ypa and 47 points to Southern Illinois - WKU has a chance to cover with their outstanding passing attack if IU can't get stops. IU's def ypa was 14/14 in Big Ten conf games last year.
Indiana lost their top 4 DBs from last year + Dutra and Fant are questionable but will probably play. That makes me nervous.
I think the play has to be Indiana here. Their going to be more likely to sustain drives with Howard and grind out first downs. 2 points is not a ridiculous number for a home team. WKU's defense is still terrible (better than 2014 - but still slow and lacks talent), and maybe their passing game just doesn't have the same consistency without the threat of Allen.
1 unit play.
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Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:
Clemson, DeShawn Watson in particular, looks way overrated at this point. The score was not even affected by a bunch of turnovers or wacky plays (except the KO return). They should drop a bit in your rankings.
Clemson, DeShawn Watson in particular, looks way overrated at this point. The score was not even affected by a bunch of turnovers or wacky plays (except the KO return). They should drop a bit in your rankings.
I already dropped them from 9 to 18. Louisville remains unchanged (QB play was solid not spectacular). The Clemson rushing attack was outstanding.
If anything the Clemson running game being there this season means more than one bad game from Watson. Considering what they have to replace on the OL that's huge.
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Posted:
#84
Write-Up #17:
Cincinnati (-20) at Miami (OH) ... 2 units
Power ratings: Cincinnati (57th) at Miami (OH) (127th) = projected spread of -17
Miami OH only 5.1 yards/carry vs. Presbyterian. -3 rushing yards total vs. Wisconsin. Not sure what to make of this - so let's just assume between 2 and 3.5 yards per carry vs. Cincinnati (44 rushes, 102 yards, 2.3/clip LY vs. Cincy).
Cincy with INCREDIBLE offensive #s vs. a good Temple defense LW. 7/11 on third down. 557 yards of total offense. 427 passing yards (8.1 ypa). 130 rushing yards, 4.2/clip.
So how did Cincy lose to Temple as a 6 point favorite? They had a -4 turnover differential in this game.
I love how Temple played agianst Cincy despite the random turnovers. They gained 88% more yards than Temple. Held Temple QB PJ Walker to 4.1 ypa (6.1 ypa avg in 2014).
Miami OH briefing: Not same team as last year. QB Andrew Hendrix is gone. 3,280 yard passer, 23 TDs, 9 INTs. Hendrex also led team in rushing attempts (157), rush TDs (6), and was #2 rusher (324 yds). #1 RB Dawan Scott also gone (5.2 ypc). #1 WR David Frazier (59 catches, 949 yards) also gone. 3 starters on OL also gone. Miami Ohio also had a corner go in the 2nd round (Quinten Rollins) so replacing him is impossible to say the least.
There is also a QB battle in Miami. Senior Drew Kummer vs. fresh Billy Bahl. Both played vs. Wisconsin neither showed much promise. Considering how well Cincinnati's pass defense was vs. Temple I'm confident they will shut down Miami. Weird that Kummer got sat after a 14/19 255 yd performance vs Presbyterian, but I'm not the HC.
I like that Cincinnati is coming off a disappointing loss AND going on the road - they have to be ready for this game. I like that they aren't comfortable at home.
The entire WR corps returns for Cincy this year. I think they put up 400+ yards passing in this contest.
Miami scored 26 against Pres. They had 2 fumbles in that game and 13 penalties for 162 yards. Fumbling twice against an FCS school and getting penalizes for massive yardage each time is the sign of a really really bad football team.
All the numbers here say that Cincinnati is undervalued. Cincinnati needs to avenge their loss from last week. I think Miami lost too much from last season. Their head coach has no idea who the best QB is...they lost their dual threat QB and shutdown CB from the previous year...not the same team at all. Cincy so good vs. Temple...if they don't turn the ball over more than once vs. Miami it should be a rout.
2 units.
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Posted:
#85
Write-Up #18:
East Carolina (+3.5) at Navy ... 0 units
Over 57 ... 0 units
Power ratings: East Carolina (58th) at Navy (85th) = projected spread of ECU -7
ECU was one of my 2-unit plays last week at +20 and they ended up covering with ease. ECU impressively 10/21 on 3rd down vs. UF but really struggled to run the football (-13 rushing yards). Blake Kemp kept them in the game with his 346 passing yards and only 1 INT on 58 attempts. ECU would have won if they didn't lose 2 fumbles in all likelihood.
Gotta throw defensive stats out the window as playing an option attack like Navy is a different beast altogether. Preparing for the option is no small task. However,
Navy wins last season: Temple, TX State, VMI, San Jose State, GA Southern, South Alabama, Army, San Diego State. Isn't 2015 East Carolina better than all of these teams - especially on the defensive side of the football? 3.5 point dog? Navy's bye week lw must be built into spread somehow here.
Fun fact: Navy was least or 2nd least penalized team in America since 2008. Edge Navy here.
Navy defense won't be as good this season. Navy lost DE Quessenberry (2nd on team 8.5 TFL) and 3 of top 4 LBers are gone (25% of team tackles).
Leaning to over of 57 here. ECU hasn't seen an option before, and the Navy defense should be soft this year. I don't think it's a stretch to see both teams score 30+ points
Don't want to make a play either way. Navy's bye makes this a weird play. Pass
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Posted:
#86
Still waiting to pounce on UNLV or Michigan TT under (41.5 right now) ... but QB Blake Decker's status still up in the air as day-to-day. We want Decker in there extending drives to keep defense off the field just to ensure our % chance of covering the spread and increasing the value of the bet.
Leaning towards betting Michigan TT under because Rudock has been so bad this year. Michigan only scored more than 34 points in a game once in 2014. Only 35 vs. bad Oregon State defense. Rudock was awful - 6.9 ypa and 1 int - 180 yards passing. Overthrew receivers vs. Utah...accuracy and talent just not there imo. Michigan could also take UNLV for granted with BYU up next.
Snake in the grass...
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Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by GoGoplata123:
Great work as always bro!! Hey, if you've already analyzed them forgive me, it's hard from my phone to search back through this thread, but what you got Southern Miss @ Texas St-3??
I like Texas St here.
Take care bud.
Great work as always bro!! Hey, if you've already analyzed them forgive me, it's hard from my phone to search back through this thread, but what you got Southern Miss @ Texas St-3??
I like Texas St here.
Take care bud.
I was looking at that game yesterday. Southern Miss played reallly really well vs. Miss State. Score was 14-10 Bulldogs at the half. Their QB threw for 311 yards. Prairie View threw for 323 yards so imagine what Southern Miss could do against that defense.
The spread agrees with my powers...leaning Southern Miss. Not going to play the game just don't see a ton of edge here. I really like how SMU played vs. Miss State and don't like how Texas State played vs. FSU. Stats favor SMU but games aren't played on paper.
Pass
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Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:
nice analysis of games. Your self evaluations of picks are very honest and valuable. i appreciate ur hard work.
nice analysis of games. Your self evaluations of picks are very honest and valuable. i appreciate ur hard work.
Hawaii may surprise this yr. new def. coordin. and Max W. will help our program.
Agreed. Nice covers in their first 2 weeks. Looking forward to capping their game @ Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, I don't cap games with FCS teams. Capping 128 teams is hard by itself.
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Posted:
#91
Official card. 2 plays tonight.
New Mexico +28 ... 2 units
Wake forest -6 ... 1 unit
Ball State +6.5 ... 2 units
NC State -16.5 ... 1 unit
USC -10 ... 5 units
NW/Duke Under 48.5 ... 3 units
South Carolina +17 ... 1 unit
Florida State -7 ... 2 units
Indiana -2 ... 1 unit
Cincinnati -20 ... 2 units
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Posted:
#95
Quote Originally Posted by AddictedNinja:
Thanks for all the write-ups! great stuff! Thoughts on FSU -9? Is it still good? or should I wait for a live line and try to catch it at -7 somehow....
Thanks for all the write-ups! great stuff! Thoughts on FSU -9? Is it still good? or should I wait for a live line and try to catch it at -7 somehow....
I'd take it up to -9.5 but wouldn't get too crazy with it. 7 was a really good # to have because of the push factor.
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Posted:
#97
Write-Up #20:
South Alabama (+17.5) at San Diego State
Power ratings: South Alabama (119th) at San Diego State (107th) = projected spread of -6.
A little bit of a power ratings play + SDSU fade. I really really hate the SDSU QB situation. Max Smith is awful. Not going in depth - if you read my thread last week you know. Look up his game logs - he is just terrible. South Alabama has the better passing game here no doubt.
South Alabama 7/16 on 3rd down last week. 6.7 ypa with no running game to speak of.
South Alabama is using UAB castoffs in their offense. UAB QB Cody Clements now starting for USA.
There is cause for concern. SDSU held Cal to 2/10 on 3rd down but did give up 485 yards (expected Cal has a great O). But SDSU only 3.5 yards/clip on the ground. Only 4.6 yards/carry vs. U of San Diego. Only 305 yards of offense vs. USD (6/14 on 3rd down).
I like South Alabama here - not to win but should be a good game. They have the better passing attack which should be able to put some points on the board and stay in this game.
Bonus: #1 WR Danny Woodson Jr. returns for South Alabama after an academic suspension. Big boost to their receiving corps.
I just really can't see San Diego State putting up more than 4 touchdowns offensively in this contest (if that - being generous) - which means we should get a cover against that 17.5 number.
1 unit.
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Posted:
#99
Write-Up #21:
Rice (-8) at North Texas ... 3 units
Power ratings: Rice (98th) at North Texas (113th) = projected spread of Rice -1
Throw the ratings out the window for this one.
Once I dug and dug into last weeks games for Rice and NT I found some absolute gems.
1) SMU totally crapped the bed vs. North Texas still managed to cover with ease in 4Q. They went for it on 4th and 4 in own territory on their first drive and didn't convert (FG NT). They gave up 3 fumbles which ended a couple of their drives deep in NT territory. They went for it on 4th and Goal on opp 1 and didn't convert. This game should have been a blowout. North Texas only 240 yards of offense vs. a bad SMU defense (3.6 ypa, 3.4 ypc, 6/16 on 3rd). SMU rolled on offense: 444 total yards, 9/15 on 3rd down...ground game was potent 273 yards rush 5.2/clip.
2) Rice had a rough go of it vs. Texas but should have won. They were 14/21 on 3rd down and held Texas to 3/8. They outgained Texas by 185 yards. So how did they lose by 2 TDs? -4 turnover differential will do that for you. But they outplayed Texas in Texas.
3) North Texas has to replace nearly the entire OL and they don't have a QB. McNulty (shoutout for Wire fans) is terrible. Just go look at his game logs. Not much to like here.
Love that Rice is coming off a loss in a game they should have won. Coaches probably all over them in practice this week. Rice has held last 2 opponents (and Wagner's O might be better than NT's) to under 300 yars of offense. Likely to do again. Held NT to 216 yards offense last year and remember NT lost their entire OL. NT also with a fluky KO return for a TD last season. Only scored 14 offensive points - none in 2nd half.
Expect something like 42-14 for Rice. This shouldn't really be a game. 3 unit play.
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