Posted:
#51
Write-Up #9:
Stanford at USC (-10) ... 5 unit Pick of the Week
Power ratings: Stanford (30th) at USC (3rd) = projected spread of -16.
My powers like USC...but what if I told you (30 for 30 voice) that my power ratings could be wrong about Stanford? Honestly I am giving them the rare Phil Steele benefit of the doubt. They were supposed to have an elite offensive line...that averaged 3.2 yards/carry against Northwestern and UCF. That isn't an elite offensive line (or a really bad RB corps - either way). Kevin Hogan looked average against NW - 20/35 for 155 yards passing and 1 INT.
So what is the problem for Stanford you ask? Well, they lost all of their talent. Here is a list of draft picks gone from last year:
LT Andrus Peat (1st rd)
S Jordan Richards (top 70)
CB Alex Carter (top 80)
DE Henry Anderson (top 100)
WR Ty Montgomery (top 100)
NT David Parry (top 150)
In addition, their top 2 RBs from 2014 are gone, top 2 WRs gone, they only return 4 of their top 14 tacklers on defense, they lost their entire DL (3-4 base), lost 2/4 starters at LB...the cherry on the cake is rotation DL Harrison Phillips is out for the season. ILB Noor Davis also questionable for Stanford.
Stanford now averages 6'3, 274 on their 3-man front. USC's OL will eat this up. They are my #3 team and have played like it covering Idaho by 5.5 points (-44.5) and Ark State by 22 points (-27).
USC is a team of talent and class. Stanford lost @ NW because they simply lack speed, athleticism, and talent overall. Due to injuries they lack even more.
To be fair, USC guard Damien Mama (370 pounder) is questionable vs. Stanford...but against Stanford's DL I think USC should have adequate backups to cover a spread of 10.
Many people are using last year's game as a measuring tool for this Saturday but they are misguided. Stanford got 4 defensive players drafted from last year, a first round left tackle, and a 3rd round WR....among other key players gone. My rating of #30 overall is giving them the benefit of the doubt. They could very well be a #45-55 type team.
If Mama is healthy I think Southern Cal wins this game by 3+ touchdowns. Either way, they will still cover. You might be impressed with Stanford's defensive #s so far but remember they faced a RS fresh in Clayton Thorson W1 and a really bad QB in Justin Holmon in W2. Neither of these QBs has class at the skill positions or OL. Southern Cal is a different animal. Cody Kessler is the #5 QB in nation in ypa, #5 QB in %, and has yet to throw an INT so far. He's on fire and has an edge on every position offensively vs. the Stanford defense.
Fade me haters...at your own risk. Pick of the Week. (for you trend guys out there my Picks of the Week are 0-2 so far...so make sure to fade me).
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