Write-Up #22
California (-6.5) at Texas...1 unit
Power ratings: California (34th) at Texas (36th) = projected spread of Texas -2
Many doubted me in Week 2 with our Cal -12 pick vs. SDSU - but we covered with ease by 16 points.
California's D looks improved - held SDSU #1 RB Pumphrey to 85 yds rushing (21 carries, 4/clip)...however SDSU 9/20 on 3rd down.
If you take Cal here, it really is more of a Texas fade than anything.
Argument against Texas: Only generated 277 total yards vs. Rice (see my Rice vs. North Texas preview for more on the Rice/UT game). Texas only threw the ball 10 times all game - speaks to their confidence in their QBs. Only 163 yards of offense vs. a very good Notre Dame defense. A pitiful 2/14 on 3rd down.
On the flipside, the UT defense has been getting killed - a unit we thought Charlie Strong would man the course for this year. 527 yards from Notre Dame. 462 yards from Rice.
Doesn't seem like California should have too many problems against UT with Jared Goff (1st string All-McGuire team) & Co.
So why is the Texas D so bad? Well first of all, I don't think Texas recruits as well as they used to with Mack Brown in early and mid 2000s. Those Vince Young and Colt McCoy teams were loaded - not anymore. So when you lose 3 studs on defense - 1st rd DL, 3rd rd LB, 5th rd safety - it hurts more than it would have in years past. Also leading tackler ILB Steve Edmond also gone can't help matters (11.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 88 tackles).
When you really look at the personnel - and stop doing what I was doing which was give Texas credit because they have a cool logo - Texas isn't a good team - at all. What is there? Where is the NFL talent? I don't see any first round draft picks on this depth chart.
So it gets back to the evaluation of Texas. What if instead of being the 36th best team in the country (which they are not - I admit - my bad) they are the 70th best team in the country? That makes more sense to me.
Cal returns 10 of 11 starters on defense. So even if they aren't the greatest defense in the world, I don't think they have to be because it seems like Texas just can't get out of its own way. Remember - 277 total yards + 3/8 on 3rd down vs. Rice. I doubt Rice's defense is that much better than Cal's...if it is.
Cal was also 5-0 ATS last year on the road...really impressive.
Just gonna stop overthinking it and take Cal for 1 unit. If this was a lower # (opened at -1.5) then it would be a multi-unit play. But right now I still think there is value.
1 unit.
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