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Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Picks now. Write-ups later: 

Eastern Michigan +6.5 ... 2 units
NC State -16.5 ... 1 unit
New Mexico +28 ... 1 unit


I like NC  ST as well....I have a combined $875 on them winning over the total of 7 games and can see them acually going 10-2.....Jacoby Brisset is a great QB who transffered from Florida and will be in the NFL next season.....

E MICH......Although the back-up QB played well last week I think they are more dangerous with Reggie Bell at QB....Their D has given up an alarming 650 YDS of rushing offense in just 2 games against 2 very ordinary offenses...They gotta get that fixed quick and in a hurry cuz Ball ST leading rusher is running for about 8 YDS a pop...Luckily they are at home and getting points....I think Reggie Bell will play which is a bonus as he can put presure on a defense....This will be one of those ugly MAC games where anything could hapen.....I am staying away but would lean with the home dog.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
Power Rankings

38. Louisville
69. Houston

Sure. That makes sense.
 
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Posted: #29
What about Mich vs UNLV ? 
 
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Posted: #30
with the line at Clemson -6 are you still POUND POUND POUND?
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

What about Mich vs UNLV ? 



UNLV QB B Decker is questionable to play - line should be out soon.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by cypress:

Power Rankings

38. Louisville
69. Houston

Sure. That makes sense.

Right? No respect...
 
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Posted: #33
Write-Up #1: 

Clemson (-6) at Louisville ... 0 Units

Power ratings: Clemson (10th) at Louisville (38th) = projected spread of -8

One of the biggest "upsets" of last week was Louisville going down to, what should be, a highly respected Conference USA squad in Houston. The smart people who took my advice on Houston +13.5 (and ignored all of my other picks) were happily rewarded. I informed everyone that Louisville is just not the same team offensively as in years past. 

However, there is room for optimism now for the Cardinals - if their head coach is smart. QB Kyle Bolin looks like the potential answer at quarterback. He threw for 157 yards on 18 attempts (8.7 ypa) 1 TD 0 ints vs. Houston. Last season if it wasn't for his performance Louisville would have lost to Kentucky at home (381 yards, 68%, 3 tds, 1 int). 

I suspected last week UL would look past Houston because of this Thursday night ACC opener vs. Clemson and I was right. Well, now they will be completely focused for this game. I expect better production from the quarterback position if Bolin plays as well as a more focused defense. 

On the other side, Clemson - like UL - is not the same team as last year. Like Louisville, they lost 4 starters from the OL (and all 5 if C Norton doesn't play). On the other side of the ball, Clemson must replace nearly their entire DL 2-deep from last year except DE Shaq Dawson. Replacing DE Vic Beasley (top 10 pick) and ILB Stephon Anthony (1st rd pick) will be impossible. 

If you are looking for an edge here, you can go one of two ways. If you are looking purely at the personnel - I think Clemson has the edge here. Louisville struggled to run the football against Houston and I projected a lot of problems for them on the OL before the season started. If Louisville struggles to run the ball, I'm just not confident in their receiving corps no matter who is at quarterback...but Bolin does give them hope. The talent just isn't there at RB or OL for me to believe they can get a backdoor cover - so it has to come from the QB or WR corps. 

The other edge I believe here is psychological - but one can make the argument is a wash. Clemson has had this game circled all offseason. They will just as pumped to play on ESPN on the road as Louisville is. However, Louisville is coming off a bad loss. I do think they will be very focused for this game - a game they were looking ahead to anyway. Funny how a bad loss can make the practices 10x better, but it does. 

Shockingly, the line opened as a pick and has been bet up to -6 for the road fave. As shocking that the game opened as a pick is (which means my powers probably have Clemson overrated - but I love QB Watson), I think the line is solid. I could see Louisville play like a completely different team vs. Clemson. Using a 2-QB scheme with Lamar Jackson in the read option and Kyle Bolin in the passing game could work. Plus, Clemson's OL, DL, and LB corps are complete unknowns. 

Key injuries: Louisville's 2 best WRs - James Quick and Jamari Staples - are still doubtful for Clemson. TE Cole Hikutini is questionable for UL. Center Ryan Norton is questionable for Clemson (replaceable - not an NFL Draft prospect). 

I'll pass

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by BigBoiHarris:

with the line at Clemson -6 are you still POUND POUND POUND?

Sorry knee jerk reaction. Once I looked at everything I changed my mind.
 
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Posted: #35
If Clemson would still be a pick emI think that's a big play. But 6 points especially in these circumstances is a ton. 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Pistol_Peter:


Right? No respect...

Houston caught Louisville in a great situation. I didn't give Houston a bump. Offensively they still have a ton of question marks. Houston was sandwiched b/w Auburn and Clemson and that's how they caught UL off-guard. I gave UL a downgrade in my powers but I need to see more consistency from UH to bump them.
 
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Write-Up #2:

New Mexico (+28) at Arizona State ... 2 units

Power ratings: 

New Mexico (102nd) at Arizona State (45th) = projected spread of -17

McGuire87 premium subscribers made a lot of money in Week 1 by playing my 3-unit buy on A&M over the Devils. I correctly projected that ASU just didn't have the same team as last year because they lost 4 studs from last year's team. Sometimes returning starters is an overrated statistic...because there is a big difference between a returning starter and a returning playmaker. 

LW, ASU really really struggled vs. Cal Poly's triple option (score 21-14 at half and 21-21 at end 3Q). Cal Poly managed 284 rushing yards vs. Arizona State as the Devils had a lot of trouble stopping their offense (7/19 on 3rd down for CP).

New Mexico is basically a better version of Cal Poly's offense. New Mexico's top 3 rushers from last year all return (over 2,500 rush yards total). Last year, ASU held New Mexico 3.6 yds/clip and 36% on 3rdDown. Without DE Marcus Hardison and S Damarious Randall I just don't see ASU equalling the same production on the defensive side of the ball - and we saw how mediocre they were vs. Cal Poly. 

Looking over last weeks play by play for New Mexico by Tulsa they killed themselves with penalties (15-154 yards) and a couple big turnovers that killed drives. After getting embarrassed in this game I expect a focused week of practice and better efficiency in the following week. New Mexico was 11th nationally last year in penalties/game (4.3) so I think LW was a fluke penalty-wise. 

Continuing to fade Arizona State and back what I think is potentially a live dog in New Mexico. Arizona State with a ton of poetntial look-a-head here as they face USC and UCLA in upcoming Weeks 4 and 5. Do you really think the coaching staff is game planning for the Lobos? Me neither. 

2 units
 
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Write-Up #3: 

Wake Forest (-6) at Army ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Wake Forest (87th) at Army (124th) = projected spread of -6

I like and dislike Wake Forest in this matchup for a couple reasons. You know that spread you eye all week and go back and forth on...you know you have a hunch and want to back a team but you decide not to...then you watch that team cover by 50 points? 

I think it's this game. I like Wake Forest (but don't love them - otherwise it would be a play). Wake played a lot of freshmen last year - they were a young team. There are reasons for optimism if you were wondering they were 87th in my powers after a mediocre season. I LOVE their front 7 on defense. Players like DE Wendell Dunn and DT John Banks are expected to make big leaps this season. They returned entire 3-deep at LB led by Brandon Chubb and Marquel Lee. If you are going to shut down Army you need outstanding linebackers - Wake has this...especially with the experience of facing them last year. 

Wake held Syracuse to 149 yards rushing on 37 carries (4.0/clip) - that's impressive especially on the road. I like Wake's D in this matchup vs. Army since all they do is run. Wake is gonna adjust play their best run defense DBs essentially play a 4-4 alignment bringing up their rover defender. 

Wake has to replace a 1st rd corner in Kevin Johnson - so their is a gaping hole in their pass defense (allowed 15.8 yards/pass vs. Syracuse)...but it doesn't factor into this game. 

Army allowed 415 yards to UCONN in W2 (9.6 ypa, 3.2 ypc). I'm a fan of QB John Holford for Wake. Had a rough year as a true fresh last season - but when his OL holds up he is accurate (18/22 in 1H vs. Syracuse...2 ints caused by DL pressures - not his fault...I watched the highlights). Holdford has thrown for 300+ yards in his first 2 games and I expect him to vs. Army (allowed 10.8 ypa vs. UCONN). 

The concern for me is Wake being able to run the football. Army held UCONN to 3.2 ypc...Wake struggled vs. Syracuse at only 1.4 yards/clip. Wake's top 2 RBs averaged 1.8 and 2.9 yards/clip last year - so they have massive issues in their run game. This and the 3 INTs were why they lost to 'Cuse because they managed to outgain them by 49 yards, were 7/16 on 3rd down, and held Cuse to 1/9 on 3rd down. They lost by 13 to Syracuse, but could have just as easily won by 13. 

I'll worry about Wake's run game later in the season...but I love their passing offense and run defense in this personnel mismatch. They don't have an ACC game until October so I expect them to be prepared for this game. Returning all of your LBers is key in playing an option offense you have seen before. 

Key injuries: #1 CB Josh Jenkins is questionable Saturday for Wake. If he is out, I expect savvy bettors to pound the Deacon Demons betting this up to -7. If you are on the fence with this one - be sure to monitor Jenkins's health - that's key here. He can play. 

The offensive line is cause for concern in this game for Wake (against anyone - even Army). Hence only a conservative 1 unit play. 


 
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Sorry I know in the beginning of that last post I said it was a play - then it wasn't. Started out as a standard write up and my powers said to stay away...but when I looked at it closer and closer I liked Wake more and more. No edit button 
 
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Also forgot to mention in my ASU vs. NMU write-up: Starting safety Armand Perry is doubtful for Arizona State and starting offensive tackle Wiliam McGehee is questionable for Arizona State. 
 
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Write-Up #4: 

Ball State at Eastern Michigan (+6.5) ... 2 units
Over 64.5 ... 0 units

Power ratings: Ball State (112th) at E. Michigan (109th) = EMU -4

You probably think I'm nuts for backing Eastern Michigan....but when you see a soft line I always think you have to jump. 

When Reginald Bell went down many questioned if Brogan Roback could win games - and he did. He managed 13.8 yards/pass and 71% passing vs. Wyoming for 330 yards, 3 tds, and 0 ints. He is a 4-star prospect who the recruiting services loved - but the major programs didn't (no Big 5 offers) for whatever reason. EMU has nothing to worry about at quarterback. 

We were a Ball State fade in Week 2 as Texas A&M blew them out 49-3 in the first half then called off the dogs to start the 3rd quarter as they let their backup D play. Looking over the P-by-P I didn't see anything impressive in their half. They got 2 huge penalties in their opening TD drive to help them. 3&out FG after fumble on next drive. Ball State had 1&G on A&M 5 yd line and failed to get in end zone. 

Ball State managed 5.5 yards/carry vs. VMI...so the porous EMU defense is likely to give up yards. 

I'm not saying they won't...just saying Ball State is still a fade team for me. After their anemic defensive performance vs. VMI I expect a ton of yards for the EMU offense ledd by QB Roback (if you want to play the over, 64 isn't a terrible # and still think there is value...totals of 72 and 77 this year so far). 

I just don't understand why Eastern Michigan is a home dog here. In last year's game @ Ball State, EMU only lost by 15. They had a -3 turnover differnetial in the game and bested Ball State on 3rd down (9/16 56% vs. 6/14 43%). I think EMU has a better QB now in Roback (at least in terms of passing). EMU OL also seems improved as they have rushed for 229 (5/6/clip) and 176 (4.8/clip) in their first two games. 

Key injuries: Pass rushing DT Darnell Smith is questionable and starting CB Tyree Holder is questionable for Ball STate. EMU backup S Brandon Bossard is questionable as is starting WR Dustin Creel. I think Ball State's injuries here are more concerning considering they will both greatly affect their pass rush defense. 

When the 6.5 hit the board on Sunday I had to bite...but I also am leaning to the over for you totals bettors. 

2 units for me at 6.5. I recommend 1 unit for you at +6...and if you want to play the over - I won't (burned on a total last week by 1 point...sorry just gunshy) I think that's a smart bet as well. 

Go Eagles???? Yeah why the hell not. I like the home field. I like that a losing program has a home game after a big road win...I think they'll be more confident than usual. Most of the time you want to fade teams coming off wins...but when it is Eastern Michigan it is like giving a starving homeless dog steak, love, and air conditioning. "Where an underdog to Ball State at home?" I think they'll be pumped for this game - but maybe I'm just being biased. Revenge for last year. New quarterback. God I'm stupid...or genius 
 
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By the way according to my power ratings system, even if Eastern Michigan was rated #128/128, Ball State would have to be rated at #89 overall in order to be a 6.5 point favorite. I just don't see it. The spread really doesn't make sense. Eastern Michigan's rush defense is swiss cheese - I'll grant that...but so is Ball State's. 
 
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Write-Up #5

UNLV (+34) at Michigan  ... 0 units

Power ratings: UNLV (118th) at Michigan (20th) = projected spread of -29

UNLV QB Blake Decker is questionable with a hamstring injury. This is key because UNLV has nothing at the QB position. Backup QB Kurt Palendech went 4/15 for 4 yards passing (yes passing, not rushing...how is that even possible?) in Decker's absence vs. UCLA. However, even if Palendech does play I still don't think Michigan is a sure-bet here. 

First of all, Palendech will get a ton of reps in practice and coaching this week. Granted, Michigan's defense is one of the best in the country - but I don't know if he can play worse after a week of practice. Michigan shut down a true freshman lw vs. Oregon State. McGuire87 premium subscribers were paid handsomely (at least in one game) with my -16.5 pick vs. Oregon State. OSU did not score after their first drive. I was tearing my hair out after a 7-3 Beaver 1Qtr score...but we ended up covering. 

Anyways, I still don't like Michigan because I still don't trust QB Jake Rudock. He was bad at Iowa and after his 6.9 ypa, 0 td, 1 int performance vs. Oregon State (101st on my powers..returned 2 starters on defense) it looks like he will never put it together. I mean if you can't do it vs. Oregon State at home then when will you? He is surrouned by juniors and seniors on offense so there really is no excuse. Maybe he proves me wrong vs. a UNLV defense that gave up 360 pass yards, 13.8 ypa vs. NIU (545 total yards)...but I just don't trust Rudock at all after last weeks game. 

Let's look at Michigan's drive results vs. lowly Oregon State LW: fumble, FG, FG, punt, punt, TD (12 plays, 33 yard drive, TD (3 yard drive), FG, punt, TD (39 yard drive), INT, TD. 

That's pathetic. I mean - I don't care who you are playing I just can't trust Michigan laying 34 - especially when my powers say the line should only be 29. Michigan failed to score a TD in 2 of 4 quarters.

Let's assume UNLV gets one random touchdown like Oregon State did. That means Michigan has to come up with 42+ points to cover. I'm hardly saying it is impossible...but they play the way they did vs. Oregon State it isn't going to happen. 

I'm not saying I'd back UNLV with their QB situation...but if their starting QB is healthy I'm gonna lean +34. 

Pass pass pass pass pass pass pass

 
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Write-Up #6

Florida at Kentucky (+3) ... 0 units - strong UK lean

Power ratings: Florida (28th) at Kentucky (34th) = projected spread of -2 Kentucky

Kentucky is coming off a big, emotional road win at South Carolina. Kentucky was my #1 preseason sleeper team. Unfortunately after their offense crapped the bed vs. UL-Lafayette I was gunshy LW vs. South Carolina and of course Kentucky covered with ease. 

Don't sleep on this UK team. When QB Towles is accurate and gets protection he is as dangerous as anyone in the nation. He is a three-headed monster at WR in Dorian Baker, Garrett Johnson, and Jeff Badet. Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp provide big play ability at the RB position. Kentucky has a talented OL that gashed South Carolina in the 1st half but struggled in the 2nd half with penalties and improved SC DL play. 

Things won't be easy vs. Florida. Their defensive line is still top notch despite losing All-American DE Dante Fowler...however, they aren't nearly as good without All-McGuire team CB Vernon Hargreaves III. Without Hargreaves I expect UK to really test Florida's corners with their talented WRs. Florida's talented DL will like get in Towles' face a bit but I still think Kentucky can put up points. 

On the other side of the ball Florida has MASSIVE issues. They don't know who their best QB is. #1 RB Kelvin Taylor is now in Coach McElwain's doghouse (more on that later for a McGuire87 ESPN Outside the Lines guest segment). WR Demarcus Robinson has also flirted with the 2nd string in depth charts lately (translation = McElwain is a crazy punk coach). The Florida OL isn't the same as last year - not close. 

The Kentucky defense should be a little better after getting OLB Jason Hatcher back this week from suspension. They need the depth at rush linebacker and he's expected to have an improved junior year. 

When I look at the Florida passing game not much scares me. Kentucky has the talent at corner (see 6'4 true freshman stud Chris Westry...game wining INT + broke up TD pass LW), safety, and linebacker to cover Florida's WRs. I also think with Hatcher back that UK will have a better pass rush. I honestly think Florida's OL rates worse than Lafayette's and South Carolina's...which is really saying something. 

So I guess we need to talk about why I don't like Kentucky: The offense is just too inconsistent. Great first halves vs. Lafayette and South Carolina - but they were put to sleep in the 2nd halves. Against Lafayette Towles played poorly in 2H, against South Carolina the OL didn't get the job done. Either way not good enough. 

First, I have to respect that VH3 might play. He's a game changer. He'll be the first CB off the board. He takes away half the field against any team in America (and a lot of All-Conference teams to be honest). Secondly, Florida's defense will keep this game close. I've just seen too much inconsistency from Kentucky to be confident they win this game by 2+ touchdowns. 

I'm leaning Kentucky and monitoring the health of VH3. If VH3 is out then I think Kentucky becomes a 1-2 unit play for me. Also I'm monitoring potential line movement that could send this up to 4 (a number we really really want. I really trust my power ratings in this situation and I really like the value. If VH3 plays, this game is a 0-1 unit play for me. 

Key injuries: Starting LB Alex Anzalone is questionable. Starting LT Martez Ivey is questionable (5-star recruit who hasn't played this year). VH3 is questionable. Backup RB Mikel Horton is questionable for Kentucky. 

McGuire ESPN Outside the Lines special: I think the McElwain hire was a mistake. This doesn't affect my pick of this game - but I will look to fade them in value spots. I think the guy has a serious anger problem. It wasn't just his tirade vs. RB Taylor. I watched part of this game, and his body language and attitude is really alamring. Kinda reminds me of Muschamp in his ability to control his temper. Doesn't seem even keeled. He wanted the entire team to watch him chew out Taylor. I don't have a problem with chewing out a player - but you don't have to draw obvious attention to it. I think the players are trying to make the most out of the situation - but it doesn't seem like they buy into him. This is my pure bias but I think it's interesting. Watch McElwain's body language on the sidelines vs. Kentucky I guarantee you will see what I see. 
 
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Write-up #7:

Old Dominion at NC State -16.5 ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Old Dominion (117th) at NC State (25th) = projected spread of -20

(Line moved to NC State -18.5...still recommend a 1 unit play)

I'm a big Jacoby Brissett fan. Sometimes you just have to ride a QB until the market properly values the team. He's the best QB ESPN viewers don't know about. ODU doesn't have a defense (Reginald Ball + Eastern Michigan scored 34 on them). If EMU is going to go on the road and put up 34 - then what will NC State do? ODU simply doesn't have the run defense (gave up 4.5/clip vs. Norfolk State + 5.4/clip to EMU) or the pass defense (lost top 4 CBs from last year to stop the bleeding NC State will give them. 

When handicapping I believe in the skill of reading box scores and play by plays. It's not a skill per say - just the good cappers (or ones trying to be good like me) do it. Looking at the Troy-NC State box score you would think the NC State defense was bad. They gave up 8.4 ypa + 4.8 ypc. 

However you have to look deeper. Troy was 8/9 on 3rd down. Here are the drive results for Troy: Punt, TD, punt, punt, punt, TD (2 plays, 82 yards), punt, TD (3 plays 75 yards), fumble, punt, punt, punt, INT. 

The reality is Troy got some explosive plays that jinxed the stats. I doubt ODU has the same amount of luck here. NC State employed a ball control offense and controlled the clock in this game (69% possession - 31% possession). Troy's offense got 51% of total yardage on those 2 drives I statistically mentioned. Otherwise, the Wolfpack D was dominant. They also pitched a shutout vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky. They're reliable (or should be until I pick them - right?)

No need to be scared here really for NC State bettors unless you just think they take this game for granted (they got South Alabama up next). QB Shuler Bentley for ODU was 12/22 for 122 yards, 0 tds, 1 int vs. Norfolk State. Only 56%, 5.8 ypa vs. EMU. He's a 6'1 redshirt fresh. 

Last year, NC State won by 12 (15.5 pt fave) at home. Remember ODU had stud QB Taylor Heinke. ODU was 10/18 on 3rd down and 5/6 on 4th down. They won't come close to these #s again. NC State only punted once in last year's contest. They scored a TD on every drive in 2nd half. Talk about efficiency.

ODU doesn't have a kicker. Only attempted 6 FGs from inside 39 last year (66%) and only attempted 2 FGs from 40+ ly (50%) [And you don't think kicking recruiting is important, Mr. Soccer Hater]. To be fair, NC State has a freshmen kicker who missed a 35 yarder vs. EKU (0/1 for the year)...but you gotta assume NC State has a halfway decent kicker right?

I jumped on the 16.5 like Asians at a calculator clearance, but I still think there is a smidgen of value at 18.5. Even if ODU managed 17 points of offense (I kinda doubt it with their QB play), I am confident NC State will score 36+ in this game. ODU lost their best corners from last year so unless NC State comes out like Arkansas vs. Toledo I am confident this will be a blowout.

Also, NC State gets #1 RB Shadrach Thornton back this week from his suspension. I expect his fresh legs will give ODU all they can handle. 

1 unit play at 16.5. Wish I had bought more below the key # of 17. Happens when you don't make money the previous week. 
 
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Posted: #47
******Correction: Troy was 1/9 on 3rd down not 8/9. 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Write-Up #2:

New Mexico (+28) at Arizona State ... 2 units

Power ratings: 

New Mexico (102nd) at Arizona State (45th) = projected spread of -17

McGuire87 premium subscribers made a lot of money in Week 1 by playing my 3-unit buy on A&M over the Devils. I correctly projected that ASU just didn't have the same team as last year because they lost 4 studs from last year's team. Sometimes returning starters is an overrated statistic...because there is a big difference between a returning starter and a returning playmaker. 

LW, ASU really really struggled vs. Cal Poly's triple option (score 21-14 at half and 21-21 at end 3Q). Cal Poly managed 284 rushing yards vs. Arizona State as the Devils had a lot of trouble stopping their offense (7/19 on 3rd down for CP).

New Mexico is basically a better version of Cal Poly's offense. New Mexico's top 3 rushers from last year all return (over 2,500 rush yards total). Last year, ASU held New Mexico 3.6 yds/clip and 36% on 3rdDown. Without DE Marcus Hardison and S Damarious Randall I just don't see ASU equalling the same production on the defensive side of the ball - and we saw how mediocre they were vs. Cal Poly. 

Looking over last weeks play by play for New Mexico by Tulsa they killed themselves with penalties (15-154 yards) and a couple big turnovers that killed drives. After getting embarrassed in this game I expect a focused week of practice and better efficiency in the following week. New Mexico was 11th nationally last year in penalties/game (4.3) so I think LW was a fluke penalty-wise. 

Continuing to fade Arizona State and back what I think is potentially a live dog in New Mexico. Arizona State with a ton of poetntial look-a-head here as they face USC and UCLA in upcoming Weeks 4 and 5. Do you really think the coaching staff is game planning for the Lobos? Me neither. 

2 units

This +28 just looks delicious! I might throw this on my card....thanks McGuire
 
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Write-Up #8: 

UCONN (+20.5) at Missouri ... 0 units

Power ratings: UCONN (114th) at Missouri (44th) = projected spread of 20.5

Guess the Power Rating haters aren't going to step up after my powers are completely on the money here right?

Anyways, to the game. I want to play UCONN so badly. As a capper and CFB fan I hate Missouri with a passion (I just think they are being ridiculously overrated by the media). 

Bad news for Mizzou as #1 RB Russell Hansbrough is out (ankle). He is their best offensive player. Taking his place is Ish Witter, Morgan Stewart, and Tyler Hunt in a committee set. All were nursing injuries this weekend but according to the Columbia Tribune all will likely play vs. UCONN. Ish Witter is their leading RB rusher with 83 yards, 3.3 yds/clip. None of their RB trio for Saturday had more than 30 rushes total last season. 

Missouri is also starting an All-Freshmen DL (1 redshirt, 3 true). Kentucky will expose them next week, but UCONN doesn't have the size or talent to do this. UCONN averaged 2.7/clip vs. Villanova and 3.2/clip vs. Army. I don't expect them to go over 4.0 vs. Missouri. 

Starting at QB this year for UCONN is NC State transfer Bryant Sherrifs (2-star prospect, only other D1 offfer was UAB). I doubt he has a good game vs. Missouri because he lacks talent around him. #1 WR Noel Thomas only averaged 25 yards/game last season receiving. Plus, the Missouri defensive backfield is really good when they can get a decent pass rush from DL. 

None of this should be a shock considering the O/U is 40. 

Basically, I am not projecting UCONN to score more than 7 points in this game. Let's give them a random touchdown. 

Which means to Missouri would need to score 28 to cover here. I'm not sure they can do it. Maty Mauk is the most overrated QB in college football. He lost his entire WR corps from last year, his best OL (LT Mitch Morse - 2nd rd pick), and his top 2 RBs from last year are gone (remember Hansbrough is injured this week). He literally has nothing around him. Therefore, it shouldn't be a surprise when a mediocre QB throws for only 181 yds vs. SE Missouri St (1 int) and 148 yards (44%, 4.1 ypa, 2 INTs) vs. Arkansas State. 

Score was 17-10 Ark State at the half vs. Missouri. Missouri didn't score a TD in 1st or 4th quarters. Missouri's first TD was an 11 yard drive after a defensive INT - their only TD of the first half. Missouri had a couple legit TD drives in 2H, but did not score a TD on their last 4 drives. 

Arkansas State's offense was abominable (217 total yards, 3.9 ypa). The reason 47 total points were scored was because of 6 total turnovers in the game (3 by each team). 

When you consider the incompetency of QB Mauk + Missouri's inexperience at RB I would be very careful of betting the under of 40 points in this game. Turnovers create points so I would steer clear of this total bet (You just can't trust Mauk here). 

As much as I want to fade Missouri here, you just can't trust UCONN's offense - which is non-existant. Basically, we are depending on a positive turnover differential to cover the spread. The power ratings say UCONN is an awful football team. So unless you think Missouri should be rated lower than what I have them (a legit complaint if Hansbrough is out and their RBs are slightly banged up), you have to stay away. Even if I dropped Missouri in my powers to 60th they say we are only getting 4 points of value. 

Going to pass. Crossing fingers Missouri covers UCONN so we can make Kentucky our pick of the month next week hosting Missouri (They have the OL + playmaking DBs to kill Missouri). 

 
 
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Joined: Sep, 2014
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Posted: #50
Write-Up #8: 

UCONN (+20.5) at Missouri ... 0 units

Power ratings: UCONN (114th) at Missouri (44th) = projected spread of 20.5

Guess the Power Rating haters aren't going to step up after my powers are completely on the money here right?

Anyways, to the game. I want to play UCONN so badly. As a capper and CFB fan I hate Missouri with a passion (I just think they are being ridiculously overrated by the media). 

Bad news for Mizzou as #1 RB Russell Hansbrough is out (ankle). He is their best offensive player. Taking his place is Ish Witter, Morgan Stewart, and Tyler Hunt in a committee set. All were nursing injuries this weekend but according to the Columbia Tribune all will likely play vs. UCONN. Ish Witter is their leading RB rusher with 83 yards, 3.3 yds/clip. None of their RB trio for Saturday had more than 30 rushes total last season. 

Missouri is also starting an All-Freshmen DL (1 redshirt, 3 true). Kentucky will expose them next week, but UCONN doesn't have the size or talent to do this. UCONN averaged 2.7/clip vs. Villanova and 3.2/clip vs. Army. I don't expect them to go over 4.0 vs. Missouri. 

Starting at QB this year for UCONN is NC State transfer Bryant Sherrifs (2-star prospect, only other D1 offfer was UAB). I doubt he has a good game vs. Missouri because he lacks talent around him. #1 WR Noel Thomas only averaged 25 yards/game last season receiving. Plus, the Missouri defensive backfield is really good when they can get a decent pass rush from DL. 

None of this should be a shock considering the O/U is 40. 

Basically, I am not projecting UCONN to score more than 7 points in this game. Let's give them a random touchdown. 

Which means to Missouri would need to score 28 to cover here. I'm not sure they can do it. Maty Mauk is the most overrated QB in college football. He lost his entire WR corps from last year, his best OL (LT Mitch Morse - 2nd rd pick), and his top 2 RBs from last year are gone (remember Hansbrough is injured this week). He literally has nothing around him. Therefore, it shouldn't be a surprise when a mediocre QB throws for only 181 yds vs. SE Missouri St (1 int) and 148 yards (44%, 4.1 ypa, 2 INTs) vs. Arkansas State. 

Score was 17-10 Ark State at the half vs. Missouri. Missouri didn't score a TD in 1st or 4th quarters. Missouri's first TD was an 11 yard drive after a defensive INT - their only TD of the first half. Missouri had a couple legit TD drives in 2H, but did not score a TD on their last 4 drives. 

Arkansas State's offense was abominable (217 total yards, 3.9 ypa). The reason 47 total points were scored was because of 6 total turnovers in the game (3 by each team). 

When you consider the incompetency of QB Mauk + Missouri's inexperience at RB I would be very careful of betting the under of 40 points in this game. Turnovers create points so I would steer clear of this total bet (You just can't trust Mauk here). 

As much as I want to fade Missouri here, you just can't trust UCONN's offense - which is non-existant. Basically, we are depending on a positive turnover differential to cover the spread. The power ratings say UCONN is an awful football team. So unless you think Missouri should be rated lower than what I have them (a legit complaint if Hansbrough is out and their RBs are slightly banged up), you have to stay away. Even if I dropped Missouri in my powers to 60th they say we are only getting 4 points of value. 

Going to pass. Crossing fingers Missouri covers UCONN so we can make Kentucky our pick of the month next week hosting Missouri (They have the OL + playmaking DBs to kill Missouri). 

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