Week 4 (15 - 5 - 1 ATS/Totals)

Last week = 4 - 1  ATS/Totals  (+5.5 Units)

Exotics = loss of over $1000 

Season = 15 - 5 - 1  ATS/Totals (+14.5 Units)

TOP TEAMS (My Top 20)

Note: I am putting an emphasis on road results + talent  and result metrics

#1 - Georgia            SEC

#2 Michigan            B10

#3 Ohio St.            B10

#4 Alabama           SEC

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#5 Oklahoma        B12

# 6 Penn St.         B10

#7 Kentucky        SEC

#8 Tennessee       SEC

#9 Florida St.      ACC

#10  Ole Miss      SEC

#11 Clemson      ACC

#12  NC State    ACC

#13  USC           P12

#14  Texas         B12

#15  Utah          P12

The Rest (in no order): #16 - 20   Arkansas, Wake F., Pitt,  Okie St., Kansas

Road Impressions and Grades ( road game ability determine a lot for me in rankings/ future pick considerations)

Georgia travel = A+  (S.Car by 41)

Michigan travel = NOT YET

Ohio St. travel = NOT YET

Alabama travel = near failure D+ (Texas by 1)

Oklahoma travel = A+ (Nebraska by 35)

-----------------------------------------------THE REST TOP 20 (travelling well?)

Kentucky = A+ (Florida by 10)

Kansas = A (WVU by 13) / A (Houston by 18)

FSU = A - (LSU by 1) / B (Louis by 4)

Penn St. = B (Purdue by 4)  /  A (Auburn by 29)

Ole Miss = A (GTech by 42 - 0) 

Tenn = B+ (Pitt by 7)

Clemson = B+ (GTech by 31) 

Pitt = B+ (W.Michigan by 21)

Wake = B (Vandy by 20)

USC = B (Stanford by 13)

NC St. = C+ (ECU by 1)

Utah = D (loss by Florida by 3)

21 - 60 : Minnesota, Washington, Syracuse, Wash. St., Kansas, Maryland, Oregon St., Iowa St., UNC, Oregon, LSU, Texas AM, Florida, Miami, Cincy, Sparty, Wisconsin, Appalachian St., UCLA, TCU, SMU, Iowa St., Texas Tech, UCF,  Tulane,  Kansas St., ECU, Air Force, Marshall, Louisville, Purdue, WVU, Notre Dame, Liberty, Iowa, Rutgers, Duke, UAB, UNLV, Houston, Boise , Calif.

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FRAUD TEAMS ?: Houston, Kansas St., Air Force, Iowa, San Diego St., Indiana, Illinois, Arizona St., Notre Dame, Virginia, Nebraska, South Carolina, Boise

GREAT DOGS so far: UNLV, California, East Carolina, Liberty, Vanderbilt, Eastern Michigan, Kansas, UTSA, South Alabama

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Top 21 - 50 Road Game Impressions

Appalachian St = A-  (Texas AM by 3)

Tulane = A- (Kansas St by 7)

Louisville = A- (UCF by 6)

Washington St = A- (Wisconsin by 3)

UNC = B+ (App St. by 2) 

Oregon St = B+ (Fresno by 3)

Iowa St = B+ (Iowa by 3)

UCF = B+ (FAU by 26)

TCU  = B (Colorado by 25) 

Duke = B (NW by 8) 

Cinci = B (Miami Oh by 21)

Syracuse = B (UCONN by 34)

 Maryland = B (Charlotte by 35)

BYU = B (USF by 29) /  F (loss Oregon by 21)

SMU = B+ (N.Texas by 38) / C - (loss to Maryl by 7)

Miss St = B+  (Arizona by 22) / D ( loss to LSU by 15)

Marshall = A - (Notre D by 5) / F (loss to BWG )

Liberty = B- (loss to Wake F by 1)

Purdue = C - (loss to Syracuse by 3)

Miami = C-  (loss to TexAm by 8)

Texas T = C - (loss to NC St. by 13)

Biggest Games That Could Shake Up Top 10-15  (in the remaining schedule):

Week 4 - Clemson @ Wake Forest  / Florida @ Tennessee

 Week 5 -NC St. @ Clemson / Alabama @ Arkansas / Kentucky @ Ole Miss / Wake Forest @ Florida St.

Week 6 - Texas @ Oklahoma 

Week 7 - Alabama @ Tennessee / Penn St. @ Michigan / Clemson @ Florida St. / USC @ Utah

Week 8 - nothing

Week 9 - Ohio St. @ Penn St. 

Week 10 - Tennessee @ Georgia 

Week 11 - Alabama @ Ole Miss

Week 12 - Okie St @ Oklahoma 

Week 13 - Michigan @ Ohio St.

Based on what I see, its probably going to end up:

#1 Georgia                           Or                   #1 Georgia

#2 Michigan                                                #2 Ohio St.

#3 Alabama                                                #3 Alabama

#4 Ohio St. or Oklahoma                            #4 Michigan or Oklahoma

I cracked the code on the first 10 games and now gonna watch some lines on the following games: 

WVU @ VTech  +2.5 for home team

> I have a strong lean here but with the record I have, I want to check all games before plunging

CC @ Georgia St. +2.5 for home team

> I have a strong lean and it goes with the road team because of revenge, and better QB ....but only 42% of returning production scares me.....I even checked ability to get to the QB and Georgia St can!! Also, field goal kickers are dead even....both have hit from 45 yds or higher away 

On line watch and it could come down to one player being healthy to play for C.C. for me to jump on them

Virginia @ Syracuse  -9.5 for Cuse @home 

> I have a strong initial opinion after cracking numbers so again, gonna watch the line ....my numbers say TAKE THE POINTS

NOPE! DIVING IN !

Play #1 - Syracuse -9.5 x  HALF U

-Syracuse are a good team to play ahead or come from behind....they have played both ways already and have faced two excellent QB's already and handled everything they tried...Armstrong is decent and maybe a step down slightly, but its their defense that has been a rock when they needed it and can generate sacks

-Virginia plays Duke who they smoked last year....Cuse plays WAGNER so they want this game and have a shot at being ranked after next week or that game

-no history in the past two games and Cuse has a huge edge in returning production, in fact Virginia is only returning half their defense but will have to play straight up since Cuse can play with the pass or the run

-Cuse returns almost 80% of last year's team production 

I would press on this more, but I am swimming against my mathematical calculation here !

Play #2  Kent St @ Georgia -41.5 x 1U 

-Kent St. has to be able to pass in order for their run to be effective and if they could not do that vs the Sooners who did not have one of the 3 main Defense units in the TOP 10, how are they going to do it vs Georgia who is in the Top 5 in all 3 Units?

-Oh, and Kent St. has issues stopping the pass

Maryland @ Michigan  -17  > have a strong lean here ....watching the line and keeping my mouth shut haha 

-I think this game is a disruptor for Vegas in many ways because you have two teams that play balanced football and Maryland playing the somewhat tougher schedule so far AND its a revenge game

Missouri @ Auburn - 7 > strong lean to Auburn and there is no revenge here with both teams with no stress looking ahead

-Auburn's defense can step up vs this offense and hand off the ball to TANK who should be able to allow Finley a chance for play action and get his mojo going (if that's possible) and if not, TANK can take over a home game if needed

NO PLAY YET 

Capping the next 10 and might have a nugget for tomorrow ....only two plays so far and nothing crazy, just sides

@Last2thirst

 So what you think of this parlay 

Georgia points 

coastal money 

auburn money 

 VA tech points 

Michigan points 

@TheGreatPick

 What's it pay because I see some potholes in it..... Auburn potentially with their QB or if Tank goes down and.... G-State is 0-3 with plenty of experience from last year so they will be motivated at home ....what if they injure McCall? 

It if pays > 4 - 1 or higher, why not but don't go crazy haha

Liking Cuse myself, that UVA offense is woof, Dome will be a rocking Friday Night 

Continued Success my friend 

@buddygurt

 Thanks 

Just getting started on my capping .....should be a week of nibbles, but ya never know, there may be a WKY in the mix...love da doggy!

Bridge has Tenn -7 but the line is now Tenn Vols -10, would you bet the Vols -10?

@hoopsvader

 Based on what I saw vs Pitt yes, but I caution on this one (-9/9.5 would be better)....and here is why:

-first roadie for Florida

-Tenn is insane at home

-Vols strength is stopping the run and I expect they will blanket Richardson in the pocket and ask him to beat them with his arm

CAUTION: Tillman is day to day and a key receiver for Hooker

-they lost to Florida on the road by 24 last year

-they lost at home 2 yrs ago but .....TENN with 76% of returning production....Florida with only 53%

Just my take, but my system has been pretty accurate with these kinds of teams. Kansas was absolutely no surprise at all to me. They were one of my top "play on" teams this year based on returning starters, coaching, QB play and how they finished the 2021 season. But I'm still a little surprised they beat Houston on the back end of a two game road trip after playing an overtime game. For what they are, they are a good team that is playing with a lot of confidence. I played the over 2.5 for their Total Wins for the season. That's probably the quickest that I've ever won a future. For the frauds, I'm also not completely ruling out Indiana yet. They've never played that great as favorites anyway. But I believe they could still be a decent cover team as a dog. Or at least break .500 ATS by the end of the year.

@DrStrangelove

 Thanks,

Many preseason progs were discussing Houston runs their sheet to go 12-0 and then the ensuing discussion about SHOULD THEY BE RATED HIGHER .....I think the players read it

Notice they are at the back end of my ratings.....you can't handle pressure, you cannot be big time!

stay hot thirst, happy for you 

@WahooS

 Thanks bro, you and both know I am due for a fall but just gonna keep plugging away 

My man on a hot streak good job thirst !

@themaceo

Just finished capping the next 10 games ......

My numbers suggest:

Baylor +3 or +3.5 ideally would be a good number >> only problem, Shapen cannot throw the ball down the field and Iowa St has already had practice forcing another team to throw the ball under pressure on 3rd down....Iowa Petras was controlled by Cyclones most of the game

- this could be a good UNDER play as well

-the questions, is the freshmen gonna play (Drones) and is he good enough to make difference?

NO PLAY YET for me....and might be on Iowa St at -2.5 because Dekkers was actually decent throwing the ball in bad conditions and wind....Baylor's weakness is their secondary 

-they beat Baylor 2 yrs ago at home and only lost by 2 on the road but they are not returning a lot of players, nor is Baylor from last year

-Iowa St have shown to be strong vs the run so far

-if a system gets there earlier than Saturday, its gonna bring moderate to high winds

Strong lean to Clemson -7 (my numbers had this over -10)> secondary has been lackadasical vs garbage teams but held GTECH to 164 yds in a nationally televised game like this one is gonna be with lots of eyes.....I would expect an improved performance from the past couple of games

-Wake only ran for 21 yds vs Liberty >>>what are they going to do vs Clemson's pass rush on third down?

-how will Wake handle D.J.'s running???  Salter ran for 1 TD and 77 yds last game

 PLAY #3 - Clemson -7 x HALF U

-just looked at last year's game when WF was more stacked and they lost on the road by 21 and Shipley had a big game....now, with D.J.'S lighter weight and greater athleticism, playing the QB option will be very effective as WF will have to pick their poison and if if they key on Shipley, I can see sending him into the slot and running sweeps to get that line/linebackers running side to side and then go up the middle with QB option....one of those Shipley sweeps will be a TD winner!

-Clemson with much more maturity and returning production than WF

TCU @ SMU +1.5 ....I have a strong opinion on this game for one side but watching the line and will only elaborate when I think its an advantageous to do so ....with this number, its a no play or, play the WINNING MARGIN 1-6 pts on one side for nice value...definitely see a close game 

Play #4 - Cincy  -16.5 x 1U .....Indiana was horrid in their secondary and Cincy has a nice passing game

-Cincy produces some of the best secondary talent in college football and rated 11th right now over 3 games

-they have size and speed on their team

-I have this number over 3 TDs for Cincy based on their defense strength and ability to score

Play #5 - Arizona  +3.5 x 1U > my numbers have them favoured by 4.5 pts so getting a nice cushion here in my view...De Lauria can move the team and yes Cal has a good defense, but they have not played a team that has stressed them on offense yet with a QB.....ND'S qb is so so

-Cal is not prolific with the run game which has shown to be Zona's weakness so far but Zona has a good secondary and that is what Cal is tending to do....throw the ball more

Gonna cap 10 more later today....

My card so far:

Play #1 - Syracuse -9.5 x  HALF U

Play #2  Kent St @ Georgia -41.5 x 1U

PLAY #3 - Clemson -7 x HALF U

Play #4 - Cincy  -16.5 x 1U 

Play #5 - Arizona  +3.5 x 1U

@Last2thirst

 I'm sorry but Maryland has like 7 revenges because they always get squashed by Michigan.

@RAIDR4life

 Would love to see the Terps do it which is part of the reason I laid off....I have a bone to pick with U of Michigan which goes back to my playing days in another sport and some recruitment b.s. when they used to buzz me as a coach, about poaching some great Ontario athletes....one top player went and was not impressed

That being said, $betting$ has no friends and allegiances in my view so I still lean Michigan because I have tried Maryland any year they had a good offense and got smoked haha

Michigan making the Championship games last year might be akin to Kirby of Georgia making the final game and winning it over Alabama

We might see Michigan topple Ohio St and Bama to get to the final game this year....this game is the first of what will be a microscope on Harbaugh's team. Remember, a lot of people said Kirby can't win the big game with a short QB like Bennett and what has he done since the playoffs last year? Even better and more KEY for that team this year. Also, I don't see McCarthy as a step down at QB, might be a step up

Great record my man and first one I have seen really on GA State. Line says it all to me, but will probably just enjoy game or try to find something live. GL my man, but like anything over 3 points and feel that's golden, but not risking it when Chanticleers have a very capable QB and expect them to find a way to win somehow...

GL

@RSU Sports

 Thanks, just being selective and cracking numbers....being patient and not jumping too much and what I would LIKE to play to have a side on .....when I do with exotics, I get burned

@Oktoberfestlax4

Thanks for the well wishes

Ya, those two games had my numbers flipped but I am looking for the line to get to a key number or just looking at other games. I still have not capped each game mathematically and looked at past results

Should do 10 more tonight

GL this week on your plays ...I haven't been as social because of past work calling me in on emergency help (I am retired now) and I am off a little bit/tired as a result