Week 4 (15 - 5 - 1 ATS/Totals)

Watching some lines with my next set of games analyzed:

App St line is too low in my opinion >> no way JMU has played the same level of competition and have the personnel to win this game >> Appst UPSET a consenus TOP 10 team and went toe to toe with UNC deep into overtime and almost won...then came back against a plucky Troy team

-this may be a more balanced team than in past years with QB play and run game

-if I get -6.5 , I am taking it!

Minny/Sparty....according to my numbers, wrong team is favored but I think losing the way they did and jet lag will way on Sparty this week NO PLAY FOR ME....just enjoy it

ND / UNC ....my numbers say ND can beat UNC on the road.....the play is not matching the numbers...PASS

Toledo/SDST....my numbers have the wrong fave here but is Burmeister being hurt worth 7 pt swing?? PASS

Watching Ole Miss line.....if I get 20.5/maybe -21...I might take it

Liberty Line is a bit high....I got -24

Strong lean to Old Dominion -6...I got a number over -10 and they have played tougher competition and held their own

My numbers say take Ball St +10 but this G-South QB has got it going well.....PASS

Staying away from Arky/AM game ...my numbers say take the home side but I don't know....PASS and watch ...too many good lines

Strong lean to Utah St.....they have looked horrid but regarded much more than UNLV in the preseason...PASS....would take if I got +3.5

Will look at 16 more games tomorrow >> some decent lines but not gonna just grab at it for the sake of it. Its gotta make sense to me when I match up 

NO ADDS tonight but a few on watch for a good number

STAKING MY BIG PLAY this week on Michigan > x 3U  -16.5

Maryland has too many holes in my view on giving up points and historically they lose by 21 or higher every game.......

Also, Michigan beat Ohio St. and the #1 QB in the conference in Ann Arbor last year by a score of 42-27

So, if Tuala T is the #2 QB and has great receivers, are they better than Ohio St.'s last year? This year? 

What about the lack of running game? Remember.....they have to get the ball to the UM receivers who might be one on one but them the Maryland O-line has to contend with Michigans D-line and other rushers/safety etc coming at him

How about the score last year 59 - 18 in Maryland?

How about the fact this week is homecoming weekend in Ann Arbor ? https://alumni.umich.edu/events/homecoming/

How about the accuracy of McCarthy this year when he does pass (he can run too!) >> • In his second career start, J.J. McCarthy continued to complete passes at a high clip. This season, he is 30-of-34 passing for 473 yards (13.9 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns, plus another on the run. That adds up to an 8.8 touchdown percentage this season, in line with his 8.6 career percentage (on 93 passes).

Past results:

11/20/2021 College Park, MD 59 -18

 11/2/2019  College Park, MD  38 -7

 10/6/2018    Ann Arbor, MI  42 - 21

 11/11/2017    College Park, MD 35 -10

 11/5/2016    Ann Arbor, MI  59 - 3

How about the fact that Harbaugh has made tackling properly and technique the focal point of his preparation in training camp and reiterated this week vs Maryland because he says the speed will increase from the games they have played, but the decision making on not to get penalized, caught for targetting and hurting their team was emphasized in preparation 

Maryland has been brutal with penalty discipline in their games > 8 - 8 - 15  last game vs a good team 

What happens now vs a great team that will bully them at times? Does a leopard change its spots?

I believe, Vegas has set a line to entice you into thinking money has come on Maryland because they can keep it close but history tells us, Maryland has not recruited on defense to STOP Michigan necessarily ....in fact, they are all rookies at safety and their D-line better be a stout first line of defense vs this Michigan running game or they will be clueless and that might open up McCarthy for easy passes if Safeties are tasked to help the line out

With homecoming weekend and cool weather, what are the chances Michigan's defense comes up flat? Or their offense? Will they be lacking motivation knowing Maryland is 3 - 0 and want to put a stop to the blowouts that Michigan lays on them almost every year?

To me, this line, is more about can Maryland put up on Michigan's defense, more than 24? Can Maryland hold Michigan under 42 pts, while scoring more than 24?

I don't think so 

Updated card now:

Play #1 - Syracuse -9.5 x  HALF U

Play #2  Kent St @ Georgia -41.5 x 1U

PLAY #3 - Clemson -7 x HALF U

Play #4 - Cincy  -16.5 x 1U 

Play #5 - Arizona  +3.5 x 1U

Play #6 - Michigan > x 3U  -16.5

Michigan LINE is on the move! Up to -17 ...so glad I pressed at 16.5 ...I can see this at -18 or higher by game time

Syracuse line has come down a full point from this morning

Georgia line has come down 1.5 points in the last 24 hrs

Other lines starting to move a little more this afernoon:

Old Dominion - DOWN

Texas AM - UP

Marshall - UP

To be clear you’re on Georgia -41.5 not the dog right?

Oh and nice work so far hope you keep it up I’m all over Cincy I think they blow the Hoosiers apart. 

Thirst keep up the good work play Mich St +3 n & Notre Dame +2 add them to ur nice record

@finsterbaby

both are on my wait list for a better price ....I agree, thanks for reminding me 

I want +3.5 and +3 for ND if I can get them

I am trying to preserve $$ and not assume I will maintain this record. I could have picked about 15 lines that were out of whack with my numbers but am leaning on teams that have one advantage in my view on one side of the ball at least

The two matchups above are likely gonna be close games. Exotics are killing me....as some of my supposed close games are turning into blowouts. Maybe one of them will appear in a winning margin bet

@Degenbeter

 Thanks Degen , they are under the radar with their lines this year....remember last year? Their lines were gross most opens! but not this year

@Degenbeter

 Yes, on Georgia when it opened 41.5/42 > I got busy this weekend and start of the week and could only cap 10-15 games at a time. I think teased down, they offer a good KEY as well, because their price ran up as high as 46.5 and has been coming down a little

IN-GAME play on G-state if I see +3.5 or higher than +6.5 early

+5.5 now

Nice record!

Well....really no point in taking G-State in game 

@ebaysu

 Thanks....being careful and taking more time this year + luck 

Took them at +7.5 for action 

@ebaysu

 I'll cheer ya....they are Swiss Cheese tonight!

My NFL Under looking good....I checked the weather forecast for Cleveland 2 days ago and checked orientation of stadium on Google Maps...kinda like how I did with the Week 2 Iowa Under .....FG kicker just hit one dead straight and then it boomeranged big time to the right haha

Got Under 38.5 and Under 36.5

@Last2thirst

 Talked about my bet so what happened? 

@Last2thirst

 My friend would you take Syracuse first half 6.5.

also just wanted to say keep up great work and thank you for all your picks.

@NAVIN1973

 No, I would not.

They were playing catchup their last game  and like to establish the run game. They had to come back in the 2nd half vs a good Purdue team. Also, chances are, they will defer if they win the toss. Cuse's weakness is their secondary and Armstrong might feel a little more comfortable with their 'virgin' O-line this year and stay close with Cuse in the first half, like they did with ODU last week.

GL brother 

@TRAIN69

 Thanks bro....I saw Salter was doubtful

I did not know about AM/Arky game being neutral....I cannot get a feel for that one

Dammit! Losing money tonight on beers, pizza and cab ride from an afterwork soiree....

I just got home 30 minutes ago. I alluded to the Virginia-Cuse game being a great spot for the UNDER earlier in the week but forgot to get that bet in!

Congrats if you played that first half and FULL GAME ....go  in about 1 hour and 15 minutes

To piggyback onto your Michigan play, offense has been pushing to play the entire game this week no matter what the score is as the unit with JJ under center hasn't really even gotten a full game together & they head out to Iowa next week which should be a tough one. The defense also has played over FIFTY different guys in the first 3 weeks I heard, should see more time for the regulars on both sides tomorrow. 

Continued success to you