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WEEK 4 lines and leans....

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NOTE :  don't forget to ADJUST these after this weekends games
  * it will make a huge difference in several games

 

THURSDAY, 9/21

301 LA RAMS    -2
8:25 p.m. NFL
302 SAN FRANCISCO 

303 TEMPLE
7:00 p.m. ESPN
304 USF  -14
 *TU won LY 46-30 (+6)


FRIDAY, 9/22


305 VIRGINIA
8:00 p.m. ESPN
306 BOISE STATE   -16'
  * UV lost 56-14 /  at home 2015
 $$  check status Boise QB

307 UTAH   -9
10:00 p.m.
308 ARIZONA
 * Utes 2-7 P12 RF / KW 11-3 before bye
 * in series / Zona is 4-1 H


SATURDAY, 9/23

309 WAKE FOREST   -2'
12:00 p.m.
310 APPALACHIAN ST
  * WF > Fla St
 * ASU > bye

311 DUKE  -1'
12:00 p.m.
312 NORTH CAROLINA
 *D- Baylor / Miami (6)
 *M - Old D / GT

313 MICHIGAN  -18
12:00 p.m.
314 PURDUE
 * M- >bye
 * P - > bye

315 PITTSBURGH
12:00 p.m.
316 GEORGIA TECH  -5
  * P- off 3 tough games / Rice
 * GT- BYE / NCaro

317 PENN STATE  -8'
12:00 p.m.
318 IOWA
 *PSU won 41-14 LY (-6)
* I- 2-7 B10 H ... 8/12 same spot OVER

319 BOSTON COLLEGE
12:00 p.m.
320 CLEMSON  -28 
 * C- @ Lou / @ VT
 * BC-  3 tough games / CMich
 
321 NC STATE
12:00 p.m.
322 FLORIDA STATE  -16  
  * NCST on 10-2 series run
 * FSU - BYE / WF
 * NCSU- FCS / Cuse

323 MISSISSIPPI STATE
12:00 p.m.
324 GEORGIA  -6
  * MSU- LSU / AUB
 * G- FCS / Tenn


325 LOUISIANA TECH
12:00 p.m.
326 SOUTH CAROLINA  - 16'
 * SC- 3 tough games / A&M
 * LT - off WKU / do well in this spot tho (5-1 or so)

327 MASSACHUSETTS
12:00 p.m.
328 TENNESSEE  -32
 *UT- @ Fla / Ga

329 WEST VIRGINIA  -17
12:00 p.m.
330 KANSAS
  * WV > BYE (Dana 0-7 ATS)
 * KU - @ Ohio / BYE

331 FLORIDA  -3
12:00 p.m.
332 KENTUCKY
  * Gators OWN UK >  10-0 SU / 9-1 ATS

333 UCF
12:00 p.m.
334 MARYLAND  -2'
 *UCF - OFF 2 WEEKS  / FCS
 * M - BYE / Minn

335 KENT STATE
12:00 p.m.
336 LOUISVILLE  -35
 * UL - Clem / FCS

337 OHIO
12:00 p.m.
338 EASTERN MICHIGAN  -2'
 * EM- bye / @ Kentucky
 * O- Kan / @ Umass

339 MIAMI, OH 
12:00 p.m.
340 CENTRAL MICHIGAN  -1

341 ODU
12:00 p.m.
342 VIRGINIA TECH  -22
  * VT > Clemson
 * OD - NCaro / BYE


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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343 GEORGIA STATE -1'
12:00 p.m.
344 CHARLOTTE

345 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
12:00 p.m.
346 INDIANA  -18
   * UI - FIU / Penn St

347 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
12:00 p.m.
348 BUFFALO  -3

349 RUTGERS
12:00 p.m.
350 NEBRASKA   -16'
  * RU - FCS / Ohio St
 * N- N Ill / Ill
 
351 TOLEDO
12:00 p.m.
352 MIAMI, FL  -14
  * T- Tulsa / BYE
 * M- bye / Duke

353 WASHINGTON  -8
2:00 p.m.
354 COLORADO
  
355 UTEP
2:00 p.m.
356 NEW MEXICO STATE  -14'
 * UTEP OWNS NMSU > 8-0 SU / 7-1 ATS / 6-2 OU 

357 CINCINNATI
3:30 p.m. CBSC
358 NAVY  -12'
 * N- BYE /  @ Tulsa

359 UNLV
3:30 p. m.
360 OHIO STATE  -36
  * OSU - @ Rutgers

361 NOTRE DAME  -3
3:30 p.m.
362 MICHIGAN ST
  * ND - BC / Mia, O
 * MSU- BYE/ Iowa
 * MSU covered 8/10 as dog in series/ last 6 after bye gone Over

363 HAWAII
3:30 p.m.
364 WYOMING  -8'
 * H- BYE / Col St
 * W- Ducks / Tx St
 * H - 1-9 ATS after bye.. on road

365 NEW MEXICO
3:30 p.m.
366 TULSA  -12'
 * T- @ Toledo / Navy
 * NM - @ Boise + rest / AF

367 SYRACUSE
3:30 p.m.
368 LSU  -28
  * LSU- @Miss St / Troy

369 AKRON
3:30 p.m.
370 TROY  -16'
 * T- > @ NMSU / v @ LSU
****  A- 5-0 in this spot BY 147 POINTS
 
371 BOWLING GREEN
3:30 p.m.
372 MIDDLE TENNESSEE  -13'

373 AUBURN  -14
3:30 p.m.
374 MISSOURI
  * A - FCS / Miss St
 * M - Purdue / BYE

375 TEXAS TECH
3:30 p.m.
376 HOUSTON  -6
  * TT- Ariz St > Okie St
  * H- Rice / @ Temple

377 ARKANSAS ST
3:30 p.m.
378 SMU  -2'
  * ASU- FCS / BYE (4-1 ATS)
 * SMU- @ TCU / UConn

379 ALABAMA  -22
3:30 p.m.
380 VANDERBILT
  * A- Col St /  > Ole Miss (7-1 SEC road)
 * V- Kan St / Fla

381 ARMY  -1'
3:30 p.m.
382 TULANE
  * A- @ Ohio St / UTEP
 * T- @ OU / bye

383 TCU
3:30 p.m.
384 OKLAHOMA STATE  -8
 * TCU-  > BYE (GP 7-3/5-5/ 3-7)
 * OSU- @ Pitt / @ TT
 * OSU covered L3 @ home by 49 pts (v TCU) 


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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385 BALL STATE
4:00 p.m.
386 WKU  -7
 * W - LT / UTEP
 * B-  FCS / @ WM

387 UAB
7:00 p.m.
388 NORTH TEXAS  -10
 * NT - @ Iowa/ S Miss
 * UAB- CC / BYE

389 UTSA  -16km
7:00 p.m.
390 TEXAS STATE
  
391 SAN DIEGO STATE  -5
7:00 p.m. CBSC
392 AIR FORCE
  *SDSU - Tree / NI  13-7 (MTW road)
 * AF - @ Mich / @ NMex (7-3 MTW home)
 $  Aztecs COVER 68% of MTW games

393 ARKANSAS
7:00 p.m. Arlington, TX
394 TEXAS A&M  -2'
 * it's JERRYWORLD / not Jerry's World wtf
 * Hogs- BYE / NMSU (4-0 ATS)
 * T- ULALA / SCaro

395 FIU
7:00 p.m.
396 RICE  -3

397 IDAHO
7:00 p.m.
398 SOUTH ALABAMA  -3
  *I- 7-1 SB road / SA- 3-9 SB home

399 ULM
8:00 p.m.
400 LOUISIANA  -5

401 OKLAHOMA  -25
8:00 p.m.
402 BAYLOR
  * OU Tulane / > bye (7-3 ATS under Stoops)
 * OVER is 11-1 / OU B12 road 
 * B- @ Duke / @ Kan St

403 USC  -16
10:00 p.m.
404 CALIFORNIA
 * USC - TX / @ Wazzu
  ** Ole Miss / @ Ducks
 $  11/13 USC P12 road UNDER

405 NEVADA
10:00 p.m.
406 WASHINGTON ST  -22
  * W- Oreg St /  USC in 6
  * N- FCS / Fresno

407 OREGON  -10
10:00 p.m
408 ARIZONA STATE
 * O - @ Wyo / Cal
 * A- @ TT / @ TREE

409 UCLA
10:00 p.m.
410 STANFORD  -8'
 * S - @ SDSU  > Ariz St
 * U- @ Mem / Col

411 UTAH STATE  -2
10:00 p.m.
412 SAN JOSE STATE
 * U- @ WF / BYU (6)
 * S- @ Utah / @ UNLV




LEANS...........
   * see VERY few I like at this point
will consider....in order kinda sorta


WF
Tulane
TCU
Ball St
Rutgers
UAB
Nevada
Duke
NC St
Bama
NMSU
*AKRON*
SJSU
Tulsa
Mizzou
Louisville
BColl
Indiana
MICH ST
Purdue
LT
IDAHO
UCF
EMich
TX St
ULM


Check out AKRON...
  * as a (non-conf)  road dog week 3-5 or so / under Bowden

2016     + 17' @ Marshall  W 65-38
2015     +7'   @  ULL          W 35-14
2014     +21 @ Pitt              W 21-10
2013     +35 @ Mich           L 24-28 (almost beat 'em)
2012     +32 @ Tenn           L 26-47 (Bowden's 1st yr / 1-11)
  * that's  + 147 points from the spread
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Shouldn't you be posting rants about the refs in your degenerate Friday night wager rather than being ahead of the curve???
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
stack bills pal
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by avenue:

stack bills pal

Did you buy a rubber stamp with the words ..."stack bills pal"?

If so, you must be running really low on ink.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by MosesGuthrie:

Shouldn't you be posting rants about the refs in your degenerate Friday night wager rather than being ahead of the curve???

THAT....or still debating my week 1/2 L's....or bragging about the W's...........

BOL this week MG............... 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by avenue:

stack bills pal

I'll give it a shot man thanks..............



BOL this week Maverick..........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #9
BA IS A GAME GOD 
 
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Posted: #10
WF......... Wake Forest with FSU on deck ...lean still for me
Tulane.......On my list too
TCU
Ball St
Rutgers
UAB
Nevada
Duke
NC St
Bama
NMSU.... I feel Utep is horrid ty ... on my list
*AKRON*
SJSU
Tulsa
Mizzou
Louisville
BColl
Indiana..... on my list
MICH ST
Purdue
LT
IDAHO
UCF
EMich
TX St.... feel UTSA bit a sleeper team ty ...opposite for me
ULM


Other games on my list bro ... If you can throw an opinion on the games ....much appreciated ...

S Fla

Arizona

Stan ..last 6 years vs UCLA won by 26 , 18 , 14 , 21 , 21 , 9 ( last year )

Arkansas ... 2 weeks to prepare

Western Mich

Over Team Totals on

Stan
Indiana
Louisville



GL brotha ... Thx for any input !!!




 
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Strong

309   WF at 3 or less
311   Duke at 2 or less
349   Rutgers at 14 / smaller at 10 or more
352  Miami at 14
368  LSU at 28
353  Washington big at 7 / smaller at 10
304  USF at 14 /small at 17+
316  GT at 6'
401  OU at 24


Not bad....

313  Michigan if gets to 10
331  Gators at < 2'
333/4  Terps / UCF 1H under
346   Indiana at < 17
356  NMSU at < 13'
358  Navy < 10
362  Sparty >3
369  AKRON at 17
382  Tulane as dog
404  Cal at 17
397  IDAHO at 4/5
378  SMU at < 398
385  Ball St 7
 
Will consider

324  Ga < 2
325  LT at 17
363  Hawaii at >7
327  UMass 1H
390  TX St at 18
387  UAB at 10
339  Miami, O as dog
376  Houston if somehow hits 3
379  Bama at 17
396  Rice <3
405  Nevada at 28
412  SJSU as dog

BOL this week boys................
 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
 Early looks.........Oregon, 1st hf & game..........Washington.........Oklahoma.......Oklahoma st. + over........TTech.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

 Early looks.........Oregon, 1st hf & game..........Washington.........Oklahoma.......Oklahoma st. + over........TTech.


Looking at the Ducks too......Zona St can't run at all somehow
  * at 14 or so would be hard to pass up.....this one might end up at 21

TT?.....dicey....Cougs shut down Zona on the road > might be pretty dam good.........if you can get 7 might be worth it..... 

Huskies at 10 or less probably a strong play......Buffs aren't very good......couldn't run at all / move chains vs TTexas St...........
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UPSIDE........sorry missed ya man.......

S Fla   on it boss

Arizona......MAYBE......not the best spot for UTAH 

Stan ..last 6 years vs UCLA won by 26 , 18 , 14 , 21 , 21 , 9 ( last year ) .......Tree doesn't look very good sadly ha.......that one might drop......< 7 might be worth it 

Arkansas ... 2 weeks to prepare.....not bad / I stay away from Aggie games......Hogs as well......prolly a nice 1H / 2H play in there somewhere 

Western Mich .....got me  man ...............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #15
BA, your work is amazing!  A must read every week.  You deserve every one of those summer homes, winter homes, and yachts that you have all over the world!

 
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BA,   I hope there is a decent line on @ NMST this week like Upside suggested.  UTEP pretty bad I think.  NMST goes on my pesky team list.    Got Oregon -3 @ Arizona St. and Utah PK @ Arizona.  on my GOY list.

Curious on Ohio, Penn St, and NMST

PESKIES

Purdue
Iowa St.   Tx. Tech.??
Vandy
Cal.
Can't get a good one in the ACC but Duke may qualify.

Don't take them lightly!

Maybe to early to ejaculate ( she said ) but got to start thinking about who is and who is not.  Three weeks in I like these best for Dec. gratuity.

Washington
Clemson 
Memphis  ( USF?)
Penn ST.
Alabama
Okla, Okla St., TCU, Tx., Kan. St.,  I still see a bloodbath in the B12

Give me some "who not's"  in your opinion.  Betting against wins money just like betting for.

Cool weather coming,  just not this week.

Stay Hard,  Doc



 
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Oregon -3 @ Arizona St.......better just give that back....might get arrested...........



Better check QB status....
  * don't tell me....."OH HE'LL BE OK".........


Boise
Kent St
MTS
Rice
S Ala
Tulane
ULL
UtahSt
UTEP
WYOMING.....he probably will be ok.....better check anyway
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Backing off that LSU......
  * that loss might cause the dreaded.....BURST BUBBLE EFFECT

I do have the Cuse down as a 1H play....look to LSU 2H

other 1H's......

CAL 
UMASS
MICHIGAN ?
VT....Clemson on deck / terrible start LW
Rutgers?
Toledo....Canes have been off 2 weeks
Cinn ?
AF ?

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Regarding Clemson / Louisville.......
  * silly overreactions......and horrific handicapping........  

FAR FROM.....an 'I told you so'....

When breaking down a match-up you've got to avoid...... just looking at the numbers.....
    ** seems like less than maybe 5 guys here actually do it 'right'
A few....I would love to name names...........
  * are incredible....how they bang their noggin on meaningless stat time after time......


Meaning what does this O do......their IDENTITY.....?
  * does their opponents D.....have the ability to DISRUPT things....to take away their identity?.........
 * looking at what UL / LJ did vs PURDUE and N Carolina?.....is meaningless  

Drawing conclusions in meaningless games?............

Lemme guess......Bama is (now) overrated !.......gimme Vandy all day BRO !!!

Kelly Bryant?......just like DW!! .....maybe better !!!!....after Kent St wtf.....
   * then.....after playing a pretty tough D (probably)....he's OVERRATED!!.....they miss DW!.....Clemson not that good !!!!

NOW.....after playing a (solid) D maybe.....he's awesome again !!.....I can't believe it !!!..............................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Legend
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Posted: #20
I'm waiting for a soft line on Michigan if we get one at Betonline

Purdue's story is great, like that new coach, the kids are playing their a s s's off...but they run into a brick wall this Saturday.


Best of Luck BA
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

I'm waiting for a soft line on Michigan if we get one at Betonline

Purdue's story is great, like that new coach, the kids are playing their a s s's off...but they run into a brick wall this Saturday.


Best of Luck BA

my thoughts eggzactly my man..........I'm unsure how it's gonna play out.....I'm thinking it might open short ...
   * 'correct' line maybe now 13' or so?....................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #22
Right off the bat you hit on an interesting game


Akron @ Troy


Whatever the "IT" factor was that Troy had last season - we have not yet seen it so far in 2017

They are 0-3 ATS and have looked very unimpressive....Last nights Troy team who gave up all those passing YDS to NMST Tyler Rodgers  and who only put up 200 YDS of total offense VS Boise ST to open the season - just does not look like the same 10 win team we saw last year.

On the other hand - despite struggling against a good IA ST squad - I think Akron is an above average MAC team....They have a very efficent QB in Thomas Woodson.....They are returning 15 starters and IMO are on the same level as their 8 win 2015 team.

Right now - in this particular match-up.......16 points is too many......These 2 teams are not that far apart......Troy is not from the power 5..........Wins against Texas ST, Georgia ST New MEX ST etc



 
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

Right off the bat you hit on an interesting game


Akron @ Troy


Whatever the "IT" factor was that Troy had last season - we have not yet seen it so far in 2017

They are 0-3 ATS and have looked very unimpressive....Last nights Troy team who gave up all those passing YDS to NMST Tyler Rodgers  and who only put up 200 YDS of total offense VS Boise ST to open the season - just does not look like the same 10 win team we saw last year.

On the other hand - despite struggling against a good IA ST squad - I think Akron is an above average MAC team....They have a very efficent QB in Thomas Woodson.....They are returning 15 starters and IMO are on the same level as their 8 win 2015 team.

Right now - in this particular match-up.......16 points is too many......These 2 teams are not that far apart......Troy is not from the power 5..........Wins against Texas ST, Georgia ST New MEX ST etc




Troy I'm not decided on yet....a mistake probably to bet them last week.........

What I was talking about with Akron is this weirdness.....


2016     + 17' @ Marshall  W 65-38
2015     +7'   @ULL          W 35-14
2014     +21 @ Pitt              W 21-10
2013     +35 @ Mich           L 24-28 (almost beat 'em)
2012     +32 @ Tenn           L 26-47 (Bowden's 1st yr / 1-11)
  * that's  + 147 points from the spread

Just something to consider.....not to blindly play......but does as you mentioned....also appear to maybe present some value......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Your posts are my first stop every week! Thanks for all the info! Now if you could only convince me to stop having any faith in Stanford.  
 
 
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Posted: #25
Good to see the regular Sunday crew here in full force....  

Good news for us is by now most of the clowns have blown their bankrolls and won't be back till Bowl season.   

Keep doin work BA... you the man!    
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