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WEEK 4 lines and leans....

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
BA, with the amount of valuable time you spend with NCAAF do you ever find time to dabble with NFL? 
 
Captain
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Posted: #52
thanks for sharing BA, it's a lots of work and time buddy 
 
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Posted: #53
BA, anything on the radar for the good old "can't lose" ml parlay?

Stanford ruined mine this past week.

Oh well, will get it back this week.

Was looking at some big favs this week like Bama, Auburn, Oregon, WVU. All only in the ml par. Maybe Washington, USC, So Fla, Miami as well.

Your thoughts are very much appreciated.

Thanks BA!



 
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Posted: #54
great work as usual.....on three of those including kinda off the radar WF pick up, now maybe on the radar after a few of us here have them,  and looking at SMU as well....good early grab there probably TD or more by kickoff....best of luck bro
 
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Posted: #55
sorry boys......busy AND sick this week  < awesome combo there

added a few.....bumped the Zips up


 ONE UNIT

Washington  -8
Duke  P
WF  -3
SMU  -2'
USF  -17'
Akron  +15'


smaller

Michigan  -9
Fla St  -12
Navy   -9
Rice  -1'
Idaho  +4'
Rutgers  +14
Cal  +17
GT -1' / Sparty +10'
TCU  +7' 1H
Hawaii  +7


note : extra juice on a couple of these......Cal and maybe Hawaii seems like (-120 / -115 or so)


leans...

Ball St +7' .....Ga St  ML....UMass  +17'  1H...Ark ML...FAU  ML

Seems like a great week for in-game / 2H plays.....
  * several off huge upset wins/losses......may start slow
  * or been off for awhile / O may struggle early....or simply will at some point move the ball / vs a team coming in with some MO

.a few I will check out.....if set up properly of course

Miami, F.....TULSA....LSU...Tenn..Terps...BAMA.... DUCKS......GT....OU......UTAH.....NTX




probably have a few too many HUNCHES this week.......
  * if you have to ask too many questions....as we have seen in several threads.....'trap'....'square/sharp play wtf'........

maybe.......just PASS...... holy crap

INSTEAD of trying to GUESS.....how good Purdue is (as I have done).....why not just wait and see?........
  * we don't really know how good Michigan is either IMO......
   $  I do think that 9-10 is probably about right.......10'-12 maybe more like it.... but not as far off as what I thought initially

I'll pop back in tomorrow or Friday........BOL boys....... 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #56
Interesting no line move on Rice game with these guys out for Rice ?

Rice Projected Starter per Phil Steele [DB] 08/16/2017 - D Angelo Ellis out for season ( Wrist )
Rice FR (!)[QB] 09/19/2017 - Sam Glaesmann is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Shoulder )

Rice JR [RB] 09/19/2017 - Samuel Stewart left last game, is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Undisclosed )Lead Rusher
Rice SR [CB] 09/19/2017 - V.J. Banks is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Leg ) Just 7 tackles TY
Rice JR [DE] 09/19/2017 - Blain Padgett doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Shoulder ) 2nd in sacks 1.5
 
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Posted: #57
Awesome work, great reading. Hope you feel better soon BA
 
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Posted: #58
BA, thanks as always.

Good luck this week.
 
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Posted: #59
thanks boys...............

might regret this..ha.

adding Fla -1'.....as one unit play

Bottom line?......Kentucky is just not very good.....
  *those of you that (incredibly) start from f'in scratch each week....won't agree because you assume the Cats must be fairly awesome....since they beat S Carolina.....and we all know the Gators are TERRIBLE!....because we all saw Michigan kick the crap outta them on the TV !!!! 

Lessee here.....they couldn't move the ball on S Miss......at all (outgained 364 > 254)...only 4.6/play....2.2/rush.....3-13 on 3rd...12 1st downs .......they struggled with EKU....had to rally in the 2H to win.....only 4.8/play vs S Caro (outgained 358-353)
  $  dontcha think they probably caught SC celebrating their big W over Mizzou?

The Kentucky O might appear to be (slightly) better than Florida's....but most likely that's due to playing EKU / S Miss / S Caro......and not Michigan and Tenn......IMO they are about the same.....Florida with the MUCH better D.......slightly better ST
  * Cats won't move it AT ALL.....Gators just enough to win....and likely cover

BTW.....this series (I believe) is the most one sided in CFB.......Fla has won it seems 30 in a row SU .....covered 9/10 as well
  * UK only covered 2 of last 11 as a home dog.....Gators usually solid on SEC road..............   
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #60

Arkansas VS Texas A&M
Arkansas
+115

Texas Tech VS Houston
Tech
+215

Ohio VS Eastern Michigan
Ohio
+115

Idaho VS South Alabama
Idaho
+150

TCU VS Oklahoma State
TCU
+400

Risk 10.00 To Win 1810.11
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Interesting no line move on Rice game with these guys out for Rice ?

Rice Projected Starter per Phil Steele [DB] 08/16/2017 - D Angelo Ellis out for season ( Wrist )
Rice FR (!)[QB] 09/19/2017 - Sam Glaesmann is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Shoulder )

Rice JR [RB] 09/19/2017 - Samuel Stewart left last game, is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Undisclosed )Lead Rusher
Rice SR [CB] 09/19/2017 - V.J. Banks is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Leg ) Just 7 tackles TY
Rice JR [DE] 09/19/2017 - Blain Padgett doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl ( Shoulder ) 2nd in sacks 1.5

not really.....b/u QB played some LY.....actually started vs TREE on the road.......seems like
  * RB might be missed.....this one looks like an UGLY game man......BOL this week buddy..........  
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #62
What are your thoughts on the Duke line movement and now at -2?

I'll take your answers off the air.
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Jonathansgot:

What are your thoughts on the Duke line movement and now at -2?

I'll take your answers off the air.

It's just going to where I told you it 'should be'......a week ago today.........

311 DUKE  -1'
12:00 p.m.
312 NORTH CAROLINA

(usually)....the only line movement you should pay attention to (if at all)....is EARLY movement at 'reputable' books.....
  * late movement ?....it's tough to determine the source

OR......determine the number YOU want....and WHEN to get it.....
  * who TF cares what ANYBODY else is betting.....I damm sure don't ....................bol .........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #64

BA, any thoughts on some options for a couple can't lose ML parlays?

Oregon? Washington? USC? Miami? Michigan?

Or anything else?

Keep up the good work, you're the best here!

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

BA, anything on the radar for the good old "can't lose" ml parlay?

Stanford ruined mine this past week.

Oh well, will get it back this week.

Was looking at some big favs this week like Bama, Auburn, Oregon, WVU. All only in the ml par. Maybe Washington, USC, So Fla, Miami as well.

Your thoughts are very much appreciated.

Thanks BA!





not bad at all......

Bama .....yep
Auburn.........NO !
Oregon.....slight  risk
 WVU.......very slight/ QB would have to get hurt 
Washington.....very slight IMO 
 USC.......yep
So Fla.....oh hell yeah ! ha....did have them noted earlier as can't lose 
Miami.....very slight.....off bye...might start slow / Rockets off OT win.....

and maybe......

Navy....off bye / Cinn off tough road W / 3rd straight road game

New Mex St ain't losing to UTEP.....but over 20 now I think

Ga Tech carries some risk...but off bye / Pitt off TOUGH run  

rough week.....
 Bama.....USC....Navy.....Miami 
*  would get you $100 > $75 or so......would have to throw .in a 5th probably to get close to even money............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #66
Michigan?...............NO !
  * probably works sure....but on road vs HOT team....with WEAK QB 
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Posted: #67
Too many picks here bro! and your Thursday night picks put me in the poor house. That Budha is messing your mind up. 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by fluxlinin:

BA great write ups
If Boise St QB plays would u take them beating UVA by 14?


HELL NO MAN

  $  never bet Boise at home....unless you've found some sort of EDGE....last FORTY home games?....they've covered 11 or so...........

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by smcmahon2:

Too many picks here bro! and your Thursday night picks put me in the poor house. That Budha is messing your mind up. 

wrong thread perhaps?......had USF- 17'
  * now 34-20 this year.....hitting 63% last 2-3 YEARS jack

That Buddha.........is the greatness of  Sun Tzu

WELCOME to ....
The Art of CFB Handicapping............... my son.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #70
yep that USF..... is the 1st Thursday game I have bet I think....maybe one more if any.....backed off of weekday games lately
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #71
What your thoughts on Stanford v UCLA?

kinda feels like bad matchup for Bruins. Feel like Stanford has advantage on both lines and can control the game running the ball..... +7.5 looks mighty tempting
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

sorry boys......busy AND sick this week  < awesome combo there

added a few.....bumped the Zips up


 ONE UNIT

Washington  -8
Duke  P
WF  -3
SMU  -2'
USF  -17'
Akron  +15'


smaller

Michigan  -9
Fla St  -12
Navy   -9
Rice  -1'
Idaho  +4'
Rutgers  +14
Cal  +17
GT -1' / Sparty +10'
TCU  +7' 1H
Hawaii  +7


note : extra juice on a couple of these......Cal and maybe Hawaii seems like (-120 / -115 or so)


leans...

Ball St +7' .....Ga St  ML....UMass  +17'  1H...Ark ML...FAU  ML

Seems like a great week for in-game / 2H plays.....
  * several off huge upset wins/losses......may start slow
  * or been off for awhile / O may struggle early....or simply will at some point move the ball / vs a team coming in with some MO

.a few I will check out.....if set up properly of course

Miami, F.....TULSA....LSU...Tenn..Terps...BAMA.... DUCKS......GT....OU......UTAH.....NTX




probably have a few too many HUNCHES this week.......
  * if you have to ask too many questions....as we have seen in several threads.....'trap'....'square/sharp play wtf'........

maybe.......just PASS...... holy crap

INSTEAD of trying to GUESS.....how good Purdue is (as I have done).....why not just wait and see?........
  * we don't really know how good Michigan is either IMO......
   $  I do think that 9-10 is probably about right.......10'-12 maybe more like it.... but not as far off as what I thought initially

I'll pop back in tomorrow or Friday........BOL boys....... 

sick of winning? great call on the bulls buddy. 

at the first glance i like arizona plus the points over utah because i think the wildcats are much better team than auto fade BYU. I see utah has a solid defense however the wildcats have a decent group of running backs, not to mention brandon hawkins is an exceptional runner?

your thoughts? please help me out, really need some action tonight 
 
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Posted: #73
Think Iowa can keep it close vs Penn State? After how they played against North Texas, I'm temped to take PSU...
 
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Posted: #74
Nice thread as usual
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Arkansas VS Texas A&M
Arkansas
+115

Texas Tech VS Houston
Tech
+215

Ohio VS Eastern Michigan
Ohio
+115

Idaho VS South Alabama
Idaho
+150

TCU VS Oklahoma State
TCU
+400

Risk 10.00 To Win 1810.11



I dont have the stones to play TCU....but like the rest and will add arkansas, emu and idaho to what I have.....

Bol brother
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