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WEEK 4 lines and leans....

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Legend
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Posted: #76
GL bookieassassin much respect mah man
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
Legend
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

thanks boys...............

might regret this..ha.

adding Fla -1'.....as one unit play

Bottom line?......Kentucky is just not very good.....
  *those of you that (incredibly) start from f'in scratch each week....won't agree because you assume the Cats must be fairly awesome....since they beat S Carolina.....and we all know the Gators are TERRIBLE!....because we all saw Michigan kick the crap outta them on the TV !!!! 

Lessee here.....they couldn't move the ball on S Miss......at all (outgained 364 > 254)...only 4.6/play....2.2/rush.....3-13 on 3rd...12 1st downs .......they struggled with EKU....had to rally in the 2H to win.....only 4.8/play vs S Caro (outgained 358-353)
  $  dontcha think they probably caught SC celebrating their big W over Mizzou?

The Kentucky O might appear to be (slightly) better than Florida's....but most likely that's due to playing EKU / S Miss / S Caro......and not Michigan and Tenn......IMO they are about the same.....Florida with the MUCH better D.......slightly better ST
  * Cats won't move it AT ALL.....Gators just enough to win....and likely cover

BTW.....this series (I believe) is the most one sided in CFB.......Fla has won it seems 30 in a row SU .....covered 9/10 as well
  * UK only covered 2 of last 11 as a home dog.....Gators usually solid on SEC road..............   


Betting on Florida is like eating gas station sushi...   you know better, but sometimes you just wanna make yourself violently ill for a few hours
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Ken11:


sick of winning? great call on the bulls buddy. 

at the first glance i like arizona plus the points over utah because i think the wildcats are much better team than auto fade BYU. I see utah has a solid defense however the wildcats have a decent group of running backs, not to mention brandon hawkins is an exceptional runner?

your thoughts? please help me out, really need some action tonight 




BEHOLD.........the incredible run of MISTAKES by the Utes.....

3 games =  28 penalties > 282 yds / 6 TO's

note:  An (emphasis for Zona D is forcing TO's / mistakes)

Plus.....check out the strange MOJO that Zona has over Utah
  $  1-4 SU / ATS......starting with 2016 below

                                                 SU             ATS
ARIZON       23    UTAH       36    W      -9.5    W    53.5    O
UTAH           30    ARIZON    37    L      -6.0    L    61.0    O
ARIZON        42    UTAH      10    L        -5.5    L    53.5    U
UTAH           24    ARIZON    35    L      +3.5    L    61.5    U
ARIZON       34    UTAH        24    L       -3.0    L    63.0    U


I kinda like the Utes as well......but I'm not sure they can be trusted here....maybe halftime / in-game much better....
  * Utes get behind early?....maybe passing game is THERE....they're running OK (just 4.0 vs SJSU / 3.2 vs BYU)
I'll hit them once game starts....Zona scores 1st > they'll be a 3 pt dog maybe.....as I doubt Zona can stop Utah passing game for 4Q.........BOL this weekend man.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



Betting on Florida is like eating gas station sushi...   you know better, but sometimes you just wanna make yourself violently ill for a few hours

Line of the night.  Love it.  I'm a die-hard Gators fan.  And, watching their offence on Saturday's sends me straight into the SUNDAY SCARIES 
 
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Posted: #80
BA,

Thanks for your insight into these college games every weekend.  Much appreciated.

I really like the Haw / Wyo Over 57.  I see points a plenty.  What you think?

I'm with you on Florida, they win a nasty, low-scoring game.
 
Captain
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Posted: #81
BA 

Re Utah/Arizona and scoring:  you mentioned all those turnovers.  For this game specifically, do you think that turnovers would lead to less scoring, i.e. stopping drives?
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:

What your thoughts on Stanford v UCLA?

kinda feels like bad matchup for Bruins. Feel like Stanford has advantage on both lines and can control the game running the ball..... +7.5 looks mighty tempting


STAY AWAY GW......at 7'......the way TREE has been playing....you'd have to TAKE the points if anything...I'm sure there's a play there somewhere if you dig....quarter / 1H - 2H play......either team to come back if down etc........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by hornedtoad:

Think Iowa can keep it close vs Penn State? After how they played against North Texas, I'm temped to take PSU...


STOP....right there GP

Don't make ANY type of conclusion from a meaningless game......that game was HUGE for NTX....Iowa? could care less > so the play on NT
  * I've seen you do that before a few times.....

Ya' know.....ONE game a team SUX / or great !

IMO....you're kinda right.....pass for me....but gotta be PSU or nothing...

In addition to NT (only 5.0 / play and 4.0/rush).....they couldn't move the ball on Wyoming either.....only av 4.7/play yikes.....maybe 260 yds TO or so......

So.....while Iowa as a sizeable home dog maybe appealing.....probably best to avoid betting AGAINST Penn St....especially with less than strong O......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:




I dont have the stones to play TCU....but like the rest and will add arkansas, emu and idaho to what I have.....

Bol brother.....

great week for the UDMLP........................

I like finishing it off with a big dog.....with a punchers chance ha
  * Horns last week........hell might throw Mizzou in one......

UAB maybe worth considering.....big athletic team / NT off 2 tough games > QB beat up some......with S Miss on deck....UAB bye

ULM.....Ball St?....FAU....Hawaii !.....UCF ???
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #85
I like your picks.  We share many of the same ones.  Here's my 3 tier list...  I'm still second guessing myself on Air Force.

N. Texas -10.5
LSU -23.5
SC -8.5
TEN -27
NMS -18
LOU -41

SMU -4.5
MTEN -10.5
FL State -10.5

Ohio State -39
UNC +3
AF +3
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



Betting on Florida is like eating gas station sushi...   you know better, but sometimes you just wanna make yourself violently ill for a few hours


gotta take 'em in (essentially) a pick 'em game....

It's also a BABPT.... play

Big Picture.....meaning that IMO the Cats hit their ceiling maybe last year....
   *  'nuther words.... instead of seeing an improvement THIS year.....we are likely to see a (slight) REGRESSION........could be wrong sure

Seems like this was noted by the Skipster in a thread......kinda sorta.......a once (reluctant) Big Picture protégé.................. 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #87
Gotta go boys......finish up week 5 stuff......
  * WEEK 5 already wtf .....

Can SOMEBODY.....ANYBODY.....somehow slow this shiit down a bit?.......I read all replies.....many thanks...but running outta time sorry..........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Captain
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Gotta go boys......finish up week 5 stuff......
  * WEEK 5 already wtf .....

Can SOMEBODY.....ANYBODY.....somehow slow this shiit down a bit?.......I read all replies.....many thanks...but running outta time sorry..........

Damnit, you beat me to it.  ..... I noticed you've been very busy today - patiently responding to everyone.  The smart azz in me was just about to ask about the Texas at Iowa State game..... fair line opener < 7?  Raw #s of mine post week 3 are between 6 and 6.5.  I've yet to look at M. Lawrence situational stuff, but talent alone and with a week off to regroup from the tough loss, kinda think Texas could beat their azzes.  Just my initial gut feel with limited research.

We'll get to this later.  You go get ready for week 5 and we'll chat.  


Week 4 - thought about it this morning.  Will likely back out of my Iowa play some (at least have +14 on 1 of 2 plays there) Need to figure if I'm going to do it now or in-game / 2nd half.

GL this weekend.  And hope you're feeling better.  
 
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Posted: #89
Damn BA, Looks like that huge dog parlay for the 2nd week in a row is going down by 1 play. And a OT loser at that. 

Keep those coming, a BIG winner is gonna happen eventually. Even so, play them straight and your in the 

Very much appreciate your capping abilities each week.  
DaBreeze
 
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Posted: #90
Man, was pulling for you on the ml dog parlay.  Damn.  Next week!
 
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Posted: #91
2 weeks in a dam row ha.....thought the Hogs had that won for sure
  * I do bet 2-3 those on the ML.....so all not lost  
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
Legend
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Posted: #92
Great call on tcu.....we gotta talk next week.....nail one of these suckers
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #93
fug yeah. thought it had cashed
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