Regarding #3.
I will tell you what Michigan was doing; being stubborn. Al Borges in content on finding a running game. He insists on playing smashmouth football. He (& Brady) want to "establish" a run game. They took this game as a moment to try and do that. Go back and watch the ND game, not many times did Michigan just line up and try & pound the rock into an 8 man box. Instead, they had Gardner in the gun where he can be most effective.
Now go back and watch the Akron game. Time and time again they tried to run at an 8 man box. And why not? It's Arkon. They tried to prove a point that they were going to "establish" the run. And time and time again they got the crap knocked out of them at the LOS. This put Gardner in a TON of 2 & 11 & 3 & 12.
If you go back and look at the play by play of this game you see A TON of Toussaint rush middle -1. Toussaint rush middle -2 yards. Toussaint rush middle 1 yard. In almost every single one of Michigan drives they had at least 1 2nd & 11 or 3rd & 10 (or more!) I don't care who you are playing, if you consistently put your quarterback in those situations all game long, its going to be tough. The funny thing is; when Michigan REALLY needed to get going, they put Gardner in the gun and let his athletic ability take over running the read option (going back to DRob days). They scored in about 3 to 4 plays both drives.
Until Borges can figure out that he has a poor mans Vince Young under center (and not Matt Ryan) they are going to look like this every single week. In my opinion, Michigan deserved to lose that game, not only because the players took Akron lightly, but because the staff is stubborn and was trying to prove a point. Borges doesn't have the Oline to just line up and play the way he wants to.
Borges better start using his QB correctly (more of how he did in the ND game) or Michigan is going to lose a couple games they probably shouldn't. Gardner can be dangerous running that read option play but Borges refuses to run that style offense. He wants a smashmouth offense predicated on a one horse back carrying the load, and then throwing play action off of it.
I like your picks Boom, especially Duke. Their new QB was 3-14 on 3rd down conversions last week vs GTech. I think the Savage kid is knocking of his rust & with Pitts defense, they should get that game.
I also like Ark St -4 (although many people seem to be on them, which is kinda scary) but I started researching this game when the line came out (orginally at -6.5). I couldn't believe it was dropping because I like Ark a lot. After a closer look, one glaring stat stands out; Ark State ranks 17th in the country in 3rd down conversions. Memphis defense ranked 115th on 3rd Down (and Ark has had the tougher schedule). With a spread offense on the field vs a defense who can’t get off the field? I'm still not sure why the line dropped, but I will take my chances with Ark St.
Lastly, UTSA -1.
This Soza kid is ranked 20th in the country in passing (and this after playing OKST & Arizona). Showers from UTEP is ranked 99th. Ironically, this early in the season they have one common opponent; New Mexico. Soza stats v NM: 21-34 237 yards 2 TDs and no picks. They beat New Mexico 21-13 (on the road). Showers v NM was 15/20 for 100 yards in a overtime loss (at home). UTSA has 9 kids back on defense and 9 kids back on offense and have played back to back legit FBS schools, going against UTEP who has now played New Mexico and New Mexico St. One would “assume” that the team speed UTSA is about to face is going to be much lower, and as a result, the game should slow WAY down for them. I really like this play. If UTSA can go on the road and beat New Mexico by 8, then can surely beat UTEP by 1.
Good Luck Boom!