week 6

Vir Tech -6.5

Missouri +2

N. WESTN +11.5

APP St +1.5

SYR +4

NEVADA +7.5

How did you do last week bro?

I really like the spreads and totals this week....and actually, next week, we can start to leverage records to hit some nice spots on spreads where a team is under the gun to gain a bowl spot .....it starts when teams are 3-3 or 3-4 

@Last2thirst

 I should have dont better on my postings, but there are games I posted that wont be on my list going forward.  Still figuring the bottom of my list out.  It helps to have a lot of action so the future makes me smarter. 

I am very profitable because of certain situation but to that I also lost in week 3 so I am vulnerable. 

Last week I had Temple for medium amount and:

Virginia Tech, Western Ky, Colorado and moneyline, N.Carolina, Wyoming, and late night added Arizona.  5-0 Saturday and 1-1 weekdays. 

I will make a top bet list this week. 

waiting for next week to fade BYU vs. ARZ.  Massey has that rated at BYU -5.5.  TOTAL OVER REACTION AND MAX PLAY.   BYU is a great dog team but playing a former ranked ARZ team is over their head.  I predict a moneyline dog winner. 

MIZ the fact that to end 2023 and at the beginning of 2024 they were ranked top 10 and after a few line over-reactions to their ranking they are now a dog after failing to cover their last 2.  Their last 2 games were not cupcakes (okay maybe Vandy in most seasons but in 2024 they have totally adjusted positively and in my opinion are a valuable play on team as dogs every week.) I will be adding Vandy this week as well.

Back to MIZU.  In my opinion, as long as they stay healthy this is a dog and running dog.  Strong D and they just have the recipe to cover small lines.  Once they achieve success and the lines climb thats the time to jump off.  These are strong situations for good teams.  I got in and posted early before they become a small favorite.

TEAX real good team but I dont see them climbing in the top 10.  Maybe if they win here, but I dont want to think about that.  TAM opened last week at -3.5 vs ARK.  This is a line clue. 

VA TCH needs this game after hitting the map.  2 losses in a row for them.  THIS IS NOT MY FAVORITE PLAY THIS WEEK.  Its could be a bad spot after Miami game and traveling deep out west. 

APP St to bounce back after that national TV weekday game that everyone saw.  This is Marshall.  Anyone see them this season ?  If App is full power they take this. 

N. West NOT ON MY TOP LIST , but its borderline.  Indy was -3.5 to UCLA.  That just tattooed in my Brain.  NW is just different.  On the road in a temporary stadium. Indy is playing well But schedule wise nobody is testing them. 

opponents 

FLORIDA INT 

W.ILL

UCLA 

CHAR

MARY

on the road in Chicago they have not won there since 1993   8 losses.  Okay fine this team is playing well against the weak but on the road their last 17 games only 3 wins.  After the last 4 game ATS streak the books adjust and I have to believe it to see it.  I highly doubt North W to but the majority this week.  I think the books took away a team that has been making people money this week. 

This is the dress rehearsal for how good they are > Mizzou....because their opp has been outside of Top 30 and they are only just leaving some middie teams with a chance to win 

Ole Miss failed

Georgia failed

Oregon almost did 

Clemson failed 

Miami almost did 

USC failed

Notre Dame failed

Oklahoma did

Utah did this weekend

Waiting on Mizzou and Iowa St. to take a punch and see how they respond

TexAM already has but punching back now...instead of being punched

I won't give you advice because you are a strong capper....but there is a pattern here. Bet on fighters, not ones that are fresh haha

What do the teams you listed have to do with mizu? 

Boston Col +3 finally back where they succeed.  

how many of the teams you have listed fail when they were dogs and lost 2 straight times ATS? 

Sometimes typing communication is lost.  I’m not being firm or strict, I’m an easy going type so don’t get the wrong idea 

anyways failures for good team happen because of high lines and pull back.  This is not the same.  Mizu should be pissed they are a dog.  They don’t pound teams they out football fundamental teams.  They might lose but I like this chance against a team this is overrated after their recent ATS success.  

They are mostly Top 20 ranked teams (SP+ because I couldn't care less about media or coaches polls) that were got beat in a competitive game and in quite a few cases, by a much lower ranked team 

And...when they faced their toughest challenge team after 1-3 much weaker teams but a high ranking, they failed

I have looked at the data this week so nothing scares me about Mizu.  

liked in early cause I know I can get out for only juice. Tx Am doesn’t excite me, Mizu does because this li e is easy.  Just win. They are a bet in this line zone. 

I don't mind doing this but let me spell it out a little more:

Week 0 SP+ RANKING                   WEEK 3 SP+ ranking

Ole Miss     #8                                 #4      <<<< their rank went up after pummeling weak opponents but could not handle at home ranked #31 who gave Georgia a scare the week before

Georgia     #1                                 #5

Clemson    #16                               #21

USC           #21                              #17

Notre Dame  #9                              #10

Oklahoma     #15                            #13

Utah            #18                             #13

Texas AM      #14                             #20      

ALL TEAMS ABOVE NOW HAVE ONE LOSS !!

Missouri       #11                            #7       <<< pressure is not with TEXAS AM but on Missouri.....the kind of pressure that  makes your collar tight

VEGAS IS TELLING YOU THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE BECAUSE WHY DID THEY NOT OPEN FAVORITE??...but like most weeks, they are letting the line chew down on public movement / perception because they are undefeated and UNDEFEATED TEAMS keep winning right? (like the other 8 teams above them found out that is not the case, despite having high rankings like Mizzou does now as a preseason darling and currently undefeated team)

Love your logic and sometimes a team effort can create even more

If Mizzou wins, they deserve a Top 10 ranking no doubt which is why when you look in my thread, I keep track of quality wins and who beats who because it tells me their fight capability, not how many lovely 4-5 star athletes they have which some people (not you because you love dogs with overinflated + points) assume a 4-5 athlete is a pitbull or their collective team a pack of pitbulls....which isn't true as we see often.....lower rated teams upset 'starred' teams

@Last2thirst

 we have different takes for sure.  I am looking for MIZU to win so they elevate again and I can fade them on big lines.  This line is beatable.  Coming weeks not so much.

MIZ is 13-5 ATS after the 2021 season when their lin is a small favorite or dog.  when their line elevates past -10   2-6ats. 

odds are strong ROI in this situation

I would consider +3 with Mizzou but with an eventual loss waiting to happen soon.....I just avoid teams that are winless for the most part, after 4-5 weeks

Those ROI situations were likely because they were on the road vs a superior team ..... now they are the ones being hunted here with a clean Win record

Ya, we are just debating and hashing stuff out 

@Last2thirst

 thier over rated trust fail game will probably be to AUBURN.  This will certainly take them down and the following weeks game to Alabama is a look ahead game.  Their is your Mizu shocker loss.  

They are a dog and this is not a game they will shock anyone this is an elevation game for Mizzu.  

2 ATS losses 

@ Tex AM

@ UMass 

Home to Auburn after a dog win and a blowout the floor falls in Mizu with be a double digit favorite vs. AUB in my opinion. 

After Auburn 

@ Alabama 

H to Okla 

3 tough games and a HUGE look ahead 

If Mizu loses all 3 of these games they will be gone from the top 25 as it should be.  

Good luck Spottie.