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Week 6 Large Money (New Thread)

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Posted: #26
UNLV on the road is kinda an auto-fade for me. In the last two years, they've lost ATS in every road game (unless you got a bad Wisconsin line) and won in almost every home game. 

Why are you leaning their way?
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

Hoo, I think Georgia matches up well with TENN. Dawgs can run the ball against soft young Vol D, and that sets up some play action scores. Georgia can take away the run totally and make it a one dimensional game. I know Bray is a great QB prospect, but he doesn't have many weapons and a not ready for prime time OL. Rambo is #1 rank in INT's and can take away WR Rogers. That sets up a lot of deceptive coverage options.... BTW, Rogers is going to be something special, but his reputation excedes his results.... FYI, in 4 games, he has 27 receptions, for 442 yards and 6 TD;s.... Almost all of which came against Montana, Buffalo, and that steel curtain Cincinnati D....Will that beat GA?   Georgia also has big advantage in special teams. Georgia is better than people think. They win this one
I can dig it bro

I haven't seen anyone give a reason to back UGA this week, now I have, I do really like Bray but you are correct in regards to his lack of weaponry

maybe UGA is crawling out of it's early hole and making a run, I sure hope they can beat Florida, not that I don't like Florida but I just can't stand Fat Charlie and automatically cheer against any of his teams

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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

UNLV on the road is kinda an auto-fade for me. In the last two years, they've lost ATS in every road game (unless you got a bad Wisconsin line) and won in almost every home game. 

Why are you leaning their way?

I don't usually look at ATS trends but that one is a big stop sign for a slight lean

I'm not sure Nevada is ready to lay that with the fresh faces in the skill positions but I'm not going against that trend you just put up

hard to bet with "never" on your side

gracious

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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

Hoo, I think Georgia matches up well with TENN. Dawgs can run the ball against soft young Vol D, and that sets up some play action scores. Georgia can take away the run totally and make it a one dimensional game. I know Bray is a great QB prospect, but he doesn't have many weapons and a not ready for prime time OL. Rambo is #1 rank in INT's and can take away WR Rogers. That sets up a lot of deceptive coverage options.... BTW, Rogers is going to be something special, but his reputation excedes his results.... FYI, in 4 games, he has 27 receptions, for 442 yards and 6 TD;s.... Almost all of which came against Montana, Buffalo, and that steel curtain Cincinnati D....Will that beat GA?   Georgia also has big advantage in special teams. Georgia is better than people think. They win this one

Hahahahaha. You say that like it takes some skill. Montana can take away the run and make Tennessee one-dimensional. It's not remotely hard. But nobody has kept Tennessee from scoring. I do expect improvement from the Florida game, because there has been time since then to plan an offense that doesn't revolve around Justin Hunter. How much improvement, it's hard to say, which is why I probably won't bet this game, but that game should serve as a sort of offensive worst case. 

I do think the Tennessee defense is being underrated a bit. They're good for one wtf play per game that leads to a touchdown, and they struggle early in the first quarter. But they settle in well as the game progresses and don't allow much consistent ball-movement. The Florida game provides a good example. They had two touchdown drives the whole game that didn't start in Tennessee territory: the opening drive and the wtf play. But in the Florida game, Tennessee gave the Gators the ball in Vol territory FOUR times (allowed 13 points on those four possessions). If they do that again against Georgia, they will probably lose. They will have a special teams disadvantage, but this primarily comes down to the turnover battle. 

$.02
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I don't usually look at ATS trends but that one is a big stop sign for a slight lean

I'm not sure Nevada is ready to lay that with the fresh faces in the skill positions but I'm not going against that trend you just put up

hard to bet with "never" on your side

gracious


Any time. I'm also a bit nervous about Nevada, but I might just bet that as a fade of UNLV. Their home/road splits are the most extreme in the country (more so even than Hawaii), and every time they play a great home game (like two weeks ago), it lowers the line when they go back on the road. Shame they got hit with a sandwich game to Southern Utah, or this line would be in the mid-teens. 
 
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Posted: #31
AT, all valid, I think Dooley is a great coach, and I too expect improvement by Vols over Fla outing. But the Dawgs have played much better teams, they started 0-2, and those were not blowouts btw, AND they did not fold. They have improved every week and they have some talent and speed on this team. I expect a close game, probably decided by special teams and a defensive score. I feel that GA can put up 35 or better, and should hold Vols under 27. IF I have any concern at all about winning this; it's because of a possible look ahead to FLA next week. That should not be dismissed out of hand. That being said; The word is that Richt and players have really pulled it together and morale is very high in Athens right now. They all know that with the SC and FL losses that they are getting a second chance in SEC East. They don't want to blow it this time and they seem very focused... that's my $.02 addendum
 
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Posted: #32
Yeah, I saw Georgia/Carolina. Tennessee is also very focused and hoping to redeem themselves for last year. Honestly, this one is pretty nearly 50/50. If I had to give a lean, it'd be to Tennessee, but I'm not sure whether that's because of any objective facts or homerism. Tennessee has a large advantage in the passing game, Georgia large on the ground, Georgia at linebacker. Hard for me to call the back four, and on the DL, I'd say Georgia gets better penetration and Tennessee has better gap control. 

However, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a blowout by either team, just because we've had one team fold pretty much six years in a row. 
 
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Posted: #33
I am surprise you don't have LSU on your card.
 
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Posted: #34

1. Texas + 10 (Large Money) would take at + 7.5 or more

2. Wyoming + 10 (would take at + 10 or more)

3. Kansas + 33 (this one is falling fast, may middle, not sure)

4. Maryland + 15 (my least confident play, hate this team)

5. Syracuse - 9.5 (may or may not keep around, see a few 10.5's)

6. Col +39.5/Cal + 34.5/Iowa + 14 (10 pt tease - Ties Push)

 

added a rare teaser but feel solid about those numbers

will add 1-3 more plays, the numbers are tighter this week so might have to throw another tease in there to complete the card

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Posted: #35
wahoo do you like cal over 20 1/2 points tomorow night
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

I am surprise you don't have LSU on your card.
worst home favorite in conference play in the country since Miles has been there (or close to that), that is something I'm not messing with

LSU should kill them but they have a tendency to play to their competition at times and I'm nervous about Lee throwing a few picks against a speedy Florida defense

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Posted: #37

Quote Originally Posted by lawrencephilips:

wahoo do you like cal over 20 1/2 points tomorow night
depending on the weather first of all

secondly, the pace of the game will dictate that, last year it was so low scoring that neither team went over that but in Eugene we should see some points

I would say YES, if it is a high paced game I think Cal gets 27ish, they can score on Oregon's defense

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Posted: #38
YOu're gonna have a great week
 
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Posted: #39
Wahoo, mind taking a quick look at the Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky game? All signs are pointing towards a blowout in favor of MT. Wanted to see what you think though.
 
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Posted: #40

GL this week Wahoo.

I love the smell of large money in the morning.

 
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Posted: #41

Like the Horns.

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I certainly lean to Cal here, you will rarely ever see me bet against Oregon in Eugene, I laid this number with them against Nevada just a few weeks ago

that being said, Cal isn't going to be intimidated going into Autzen, these teams play every single year and they are both familiar with one another, Oregon doesn't have the shut down defense to stop Cal from scoring, I see Cal putting up points (probably around 27ish) and if that happens that means the Ducks need more than 50 to beat me

lets be realistic here, Oregon can score 50 on alot of teams at home, but this isn't an out of conference opponent that will be scared of the environment

I guess Maynard could get rattled and not play well but alot of things would have to happen for Cal to lose by 30 points, they have good athletes and nice speed, Cal is a solid team

I just bet Washington against Cal a few weeks ago at home because Cal isn't generally the same team at home, but this spread is super inflated and still getting more Duck action than not

people love betting the Ducks, I can see why but not with this line against a solid Cal team

I made this line 16, I'm a numbers guy so I see value in Cal plus the points

hope that helps

i agree completely bro!  I made this line 17.5 so a lot of value in the golden bears IMO!  Good luck this week my man...always a pleasure reading your thoughts each week

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by BigEastExpert:

GL this week Wahoo.

I love the smell of large money in the morning.

indeed, it is such a good scent
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by Brinksta:

Wahoo, mind taking a quick look at the Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky game? All signs are pointing towards a blowout in favor of MT. Wanted to see what you think though.

I never even looked at that game

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/matchups/g8_summary_1.html

 

but if you just scan over the matchup page you see both at 2-2 ATS, WKU just hung with a better Ark St team while Middle Tn just barely beat an awful Memphis team to get their 1st win of the season

I can honestly say I haven't looked at anything until you just asked me about it, even then I only browsed over the Covers Matchup page to find that both teams appear bad

MTSU only beat them by 1 last year, WKU appears a little more competitive this year and MTSU has taken a slight step back, 11.5 points look like alot to me from quick glance

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Posted: #45

we here at WahooSports, INC. (me, myself and I) just came across some good info

 

it appears another Large Money play is on the docket

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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

we here at WahooSports, INC. (me, myself and I) just came across some good info

 

it appears another Large Money play is on the docket



For this week!? Do tell.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

we here at WahooSports, INC. (me, myself and I) just came across some good info

 

it appears another Large Money play is on the docket



    
 
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Posted: #48

Like your card WahooS, gl this week bud

Definitely like to see Texas as a large money play for you

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Brinksta:



For this week!? Do tell.
yes, I'm about to trim down a couple of those regular plays and I will have the other Large money play posted later in the week, waiting on something
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by HotRoute:

Like your card WahooS, gl this week bud

Definitely like to see Texas as a large money play for you

the card is not very much, I'm gonna try to middle a couple of those out

I would recommend Texas for certain and probably Wyoming and the teaser, that is about it

I do love Texas though my friend, they will get us the cash, best of luck

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