Week 8 Thoughts....

Michigan by how many TDs over Purdue ?  4...5...more  ?

Hey Sizzle,

Great week man. How many units are you up this year? You must be up 100+. I wanted to let you know that talking to you about games and understanding how to read lines and spots better over the last two years has made me such a better handicapper. I was absolutely awful in 09. I think I lost $7000 that season and probably was picking around 30%. Thank god I have made it all back with last year and this year.

The worst thing that ever happened to be was my first year gambling on CFB in 08 and winning money so easily that year. I remember every week lining up to take Florida and Oklahoma laying DD at home, on the road it didn't matter as both teams went like 10-2 ATS that year. The public crushed it that year. I thought it was easy. Little did I know. I look back at some of the bets I used to make and I cringe. Laying pts on the road in conference night games in bad spots .

I have now seen the light and realized that playing games the way you do is the best way of making money over the longterm. Playing teams a week before Vegas figures them out. Playing teams at home with their back against the wall and when they need to step up and win. Playing road teams getting pts in good spots vs teams coming off a big win or loss where they will be flat next week. I think you are completely right about stats. In CFB they are absolutely meaningless as teams get up and down for games during the season. Very few teams if any can keep a consistent effort every week. The swings in a teams performance from one week to the next is mind-boggling when conference games start.

I don't always play the same side that you do and sometimes I have won against you but I feel more often I have lost going against you (like Wisconsin last week). Does your style win every game? No, but I have seen you win big money the last two years. How many consecutive winning seasons have you had handicapping this way as well? I have also noticed something else about your style. Do you ever lay pts on the road? I have never seen you do it. I think laying pts on the road over the longterm is a great way to lose a ton of money. I know the top teams have been covering huge point spreads all year on the road but that won't continue and its an exception to the rule.

Anyways, I just wanted to thank you for all your contributions to the board the last two years. I think BigGiantKiller is the only other player on this board who handicaps similar to you and hes very successful as well.

On to this weeks games. Love Illinois. I think they are better then Penn St and they are getting 5! They have the better QB, better offense, and better defense. I will be on that game heavy.

UNC should destroy Wake. UNC has NFL players all over that team and they have a lot more size and speed than Wake. I don't know how Wake will even more the ball. They should be pissed coming home off that 2nd half blowout last week. They actually played with Clemson for a half. Do you think this line moves up? Should I lock it in now? I like playing games Friday because I get reduced juice and that can add up over the longhaul but I love getting the best number as well or atleast getting a number before it crosses a key number.

Nebraska looks very good vs MSU too. When was the last time MSU beat anyone good on the road (Michigan last year doesn't count and Ohio St this year doesnt either). ND blew this team out at South Bend and Iowa smoked them last year. This is a different team on the road.

SMU looks like they are in a good spot after losing to Southern Miss last week. Tulsa plays no defense at all and SMU should move the ball at will.

Iowa State is almost an autoplay with Texas Tech coming off an upset as a 4 td underdog. Iowa State cna move the ball on that weak TT run defense.

UNLV certainly looks like the right side with 2 weeks to prepare and starving for a win. I typically don't bet crap games like this but this game really stands out.

Louisville could be a good play especially with Cuse coming off the big win but their offense makes me cringe man. I don't know if I can play that game. Its either the Ville or nothing tho.

Please talk me off laying a TD with Wisconsin on the road again at Ohio State. This line brings out the square in me. I thought this line would be -10 a week ago. Wisconsin has got to be crushed coming off that loss. How can they possibly get up for this game? They could still make a BCS game I guess. Ohio State has had two weeks to prepare as well.

What do you think of Fla-Georgia? I want to play Georgia if the line comes out at like 3. I know its going against being a week ahead of Vegas but Florida is just awful they have had 0 offensive production in the last 3 games.

i think he was around even this year before last week...but he had a very good week last week. 

also, being up 100 units for a 10 unit player is not very impressive.  i'm sure RJ looking to finish way above that.

Okie State now begins its quest to be overvalued.

I don't think so, their schedule is pretty weak and they are a cover machine. I am considering riding them til the bowl. Their offense is the best the big 12 got to offer right now.

Great week last week and hopefully another to come...

Really like GT in this spot. Couldnt agree more. The Triple is going to be so frustrating for this Clemson defense. GT will have to take some early stikes to get the Tigers a lil nervous for this to pan out...Problem is that Clemson has already been behind before and rebounded. Albeit vs Maryland. Bottom line, find a sports bar for this one. I also try to avoid getting too involved in games I have an investment in (just too hard tho), but this should be an exiting game...

The Heels should destroy Wake. Everyone saw a a blowout score on National TV on ESPN with the Heels last week, and see Wake in the win collumn once again after last week. 7.5 will look mighty tasty for Wake backers. I watched the Duke/Wake game after the Heels wheels fell off...If the Heels D line can get to Tanner Price quick and often, its gonna get ugly. I also really think the Heels offense has realized they can score as well...

NCSU/FSU interests me. I cannot wrap my mind around this one. If NCSU had lost to UVA and not won straight up, I think NCSU woulda/coulda been a solid play...looks like a no play

I think Navy may get thunder rolled here. Once the run gets stuffed they will go to pass attack. May get ugly. Still, lotta points.

There just really isnt ANY debate to be had on Neb/MSU. Period. Win or lose, there is only one wager here...

Agree with the rest, I usually just roll with...

Good reads.

We never touched on Miami/UVA here. Imo, UVA may be worth a look. Will Miami comeback to earth in a letdown spot vs a UVA team that can pull surprises? That -13.5 sure looks inviting for Miami backers who saw Miami work a UNC team on the road and handle ole GT...

Bottom line is this may be one of those games like Mizzo last week (and Stanford/So Cal this week as well) that is best to just leave be...

:thumbsup:

Could you imagine all the box and beer bongs the TT players will be doing this week...I don't see them getting up for ISU

The same could be said for MSU...Can they bring that same intensity into Lincoln..should be a hell of a game...I think Nebraska pulls it out in the end to cover

OSU / Baylor..lets see what defense shows up first

Good luck this week RJ