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Week 8 Thoughts....

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Posted: #51
great call rj
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

Okie State now begins its quest to be overvalued.

I don't think so, their schedule is pretty weak and they are a cover machine. I am considering riding them til the bowl. Their offense is the best the big 12 got to offer right now.

 

All the time brotha...cause I keep it real........

 
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Posted: #53
If you get a chance, in addition to Arky St and ULM, I'd like to hear your thoughts on Notre Dame this week. Since last year's loss to Navy, they've demolished two consecutive option teams. That said, the line is awful high. 
 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:



Mac - I was thinking about this Nebraska game...comparing it to Wisconsin last year. I bet on Wisco to beat Ohio State, who was #4 at the time I believe. The next week I went out and bet them again in a letdown spot at Iowa and they cashed again.


Very interesting that you remembered that Wisconsin/Iowa game, as that's all that pops in my head when I look at this game.  Surprised you thought Tolzien was competent enough to go into Iowa City and get a win last year, but Cousins can't go into Lincoln and succeed against a porous Huskers D...

Still undecided on the game, but can't forget about the Badgers pulling that upset in a similar spot when capping this game.
 
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Posted: #56

Nice start to the week. Hit Troy full time for half a unit...

 

 
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Posted: #57
I think it's another good week for people like you and I.
 
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Posted: #58
any opinion on the wed night game?
 
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Posted: #59
BOL Siz..I have to go the other way on WVU. This seems like a great spot for them off the beatdown...Their season is far from over and I got them at 6.5.  


 
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Posted: #60

RJ, I am surprised to read you like Arizona. To me this game is typical of a spot you would play Washington. Arizona dominated UCLA on national tv last week and then on Saturday we see Washington getting destroyed by Stanford. Now this week Washington is a 5 point favorite. This seems like a game you would be all over the Huskies.

2 other games I thought you might be on are Oklahoma laying 2 TDs on the road at undefeated KSU and Louisville as a 3 point favorite against Syracuse off their man handling of WV. OU and Louisville are 2 I like and would love to hear what you think..

Thanks!

 

 
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Posted: #61
Why is it a goo spot for west virginia? Their season just went down the tubes. Also check the ats
 
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Posted: #62
Also check the ats on teams that lose su a dd favorites for the following week. I feel like all of you calling for a bounceback might be surprised when you see the evidence that teams don't bounce back after losses like that instead of just assuming they do.
 
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Posted: #63
I guess that explains the Oklahoma game lol. I thought KSU getting 14 at home would be a huge public play.
 
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Posted: #64

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Also check the ats on teams that lose su a dd favorites for the following week. I feel like all of you calling for a bounceback might be surprised when you see the evidence that teams don't bounce back after losses like that instead of just assuming they do.

Teams are 425-415-20 in this spot since 1980 - so doesn't seem like much of a spot at all.   Teams off a first loss this late in the year (week 7 or more) tend to struggle a bit (66-77 46.1%), but nothing to write home about

 
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Posted: #65
Thank you! I knew you would have it. You have all those stats. 

OK...everyone playing the WVA is going to bounce back angle, if you played that to date you would be a whopping....drumroll please....

-31.5 Units


If that warrants a play for you, I dont really know what to say.


 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by redsox5831:

I guess that explains the Oklahoma game lol. I thought KSU getting 14 at home would be a huge public play.

I have already hit OU @ -13.5 -104. I will probably be adding more.

My argument is that OU is head-and-shoulders above KST. 

If anyone wants to come in here and argue and hose down KST its just the wrong thread at the wrong time. This thread was talking up KST weeks ago when it wasnt trendy - against teams like Miami and Baylor. Now that they are the bees knees there is nowhere else to look but away. 

 
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Posted: #67
oh, come on...quit cherry-picking stats...

give me the stats when they play a team coming off a loss against a team with a losing record.  that would be much more accurate...right?



you know as well as i that you can always find numbers to support a side.
 
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Posted: #68
RJSizzle your dead on my friend OU by 3 TD
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

oh, come on...quit cherry-picking stats...

give me the stats when they play a team coming off a loss against a team with a losing record.  that would be much more accurate...right?



you know as well as i that you can always find numbers to support a side.

I was just keeping it simple....

 
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Posted: #70
hey Sizzle any thought for tomight game? thanks
 
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Posted: #71
If anything, Pitt. UCONN is atrocious. 

 
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Posted: #72
Great thread as always RJ.  What are your thoughts on Pitt tonight?  The line tells me Pitt in a blowout.  

 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

If anything, Pitt. UCONN is atrocious. 



 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Also check the ats on teams that lose su a dd favorites for the following week. I feel like all of you calling for a bounceback might be surprised when you see the evidence that teams don't bounce back after losses like that instead of just assuming they do.

Where can you find ATS records for teams losing su and now are DD favorites?

 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Where can you find ATS records for teams losing su and now are DD favorites?

108-116-4 since 1980

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