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Week 8 Thoughts....

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


Do you feel that the spots and situations are NOT baked into the line? Maybe not entirely yet, but I think there are more and more situational players each year and they must be having some effect on the line. Or maybe you feel that based on the impressions made by last week's top performers, the Public's reaction and influence of the line still outweighs the "sharp" plays on sport and situations?

Good thoughts!  


If you look at the math of MSU/NEB you see that it is beginning to get built in.  Math says PK.
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


Do you feel that the spots and situations are NOT baked into the line? Maybe not entirely yet, but I think there are more and more situational players each year and they must be having some effect on the line. Or maybe you feel that based on the impressions made by last week's top performers, the Public's reaction and influence of the line still outweighs the "sharp" plays on sport and situations?

Good thoughts!  

I think its about understanding how the public will read the line given out.  Most of the situations baked into the line are the ones all over ESPN / Sportscenter.  Its up to the situation capper to find the non-obvious trends and associations to tell whether a situation is advantageous and playable
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:


I think its about understanding how the public will read the line given out.  Most of the situations baked into the line are the ones all over ESPN / Sportscenter.  Its up to the situation capper to find the non-obvious trends and associations to tell whether a situation is advantageous and playable

 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:



If you look at the math of MSU/NEB you see that it is beginning to get built in.  Math says PK.

I dont think that spots and situations are fully accounted in the line. They are factored, but you cant just move/set a line because of a feeling. 

With high profile games, its not the spots and situations are accounted as much as books take a stand on teams. Books clearly didnt think Baylor was as good as advertised and had no problems dangling and even moving the line towards Baylor in their game against A&M. I think that is what you see with the Clemson/GT game. 

The average joe has one perception and the market makers have another. 




 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by HiHoldem:

baylor + 14....is that a pass?

thks


No, thats good. 


 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Strange.  I had Rice as well.  After three nearly perfect games (no turnovers) I figured UH was due to play worse.  And they did!  3 turnovers in the first half...and UH still led by 18 at the break.  Thank goodness I did watch the last few minutes of the half, as that convinced me to play UH 2h for more than my original bet on Rice...so I picked up a unit.

So much for write-ups and predicting how the game will go.

With a small moral victory I hit the second half over. But I couldnt believe they had Keenum still in there. It was sort of classless, but a program with no history I guess doesnt have to worry about class. Your QB threw 9 TDs, you won by 40. Nobody gives a shit outside of Houston, you dicks.

 
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Posted: #107

Sizzle,

My book has Illinois +180 ML. I already took them +5 with great value at +180 should I lay a unit or two on this as well?

Thoughts...

 
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Posted: #108
I like that ML my man. Its a little short, imo, but I would hit it. 

Dont know how much I will be around the next two days, so here we go:

10 Units:

OU -13.5
Iowa State +15
Baylor +14.5
UNC -7
Lou -3
Neb -4
Ohio State +7
Mizzou +10
UNLV ML +130
MTSU -3


15 Units:

Illy +5.5
GT +4


5 Units:

Illy ML +185
GT ML +160


Just waiting for 7 with Rutgers. 



 
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Posted: #109
**bought out of SJSU

 
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Posted: #110
[Quote: Originally Posted by RJSizzle]

I see it exactly as you do. But thats why I am going to bet on Mizzou. 


[/Quote

 

Sizzle,

May I ask why you feel like this on the game and you are still taking Mizz!! Thanks buddy

 
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Posted: #111
Talk to me about Ohio St.
 
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Posted: #112
Wow my card almost similar:

Iowa state, oklahoma, baylor, rutgers, ville, gt, kent st, nebraska, georgia, usc.

Prolly add Illini


 
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Posted: #113
With ya on Illy and UNC.

No Arizona?
 
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Posted: #114
why illinois?
 
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Posted: #115
good luck RJ.  it looks like $ to me.
 
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Posted: #116
There are a few games where I waited on lines and just lost all value. i.e. Bowling Green where the books took my advice and dropped it to near 3.

Illy I think is better in every facet of the game. This is a game Zook will have his boys ready for. QB advantage going to be huge here.

Also line opened at 5 or 5.5 and favorites that open there lose straight up more often than anything else. The points are insurance.

Mizzou is not as bad as they played last week and A&M is one of the worst coached squads in the Big 12.
 
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Posted: #117
Sizzle, good luck. We are thinking the same on some of that card. Good luck.
 
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Posted: #118
Also thinking Illinois tomorrow, but not sure if this supposed blizzard hit the game will help or hurt.
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


Do you feel that the spots and situations are NOT baked into the line? Maybe not entirely yet, but I think there are more and more situational players each year and they must be having some effect on the line.
 
This game's been going on for a long time.  Situational players KILLED IT in 1997, and then in 1998 the Broncos opened the season 13-0 ATS (finished 17-2 ATS) and the Vikings started 16-1 ATS (finished 16-2 ATS).  Situational bettors were wiped out. 
 
In 2007, situational betting in college ball was an absolute disaster. 
 
But, yes, the line is adjusted for lots of situations.  The Clemson line has been adjusted by 9 points already, for instance.
 
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Posted: #120
Yeah I got AZ at +8.

Just noticed road chalk up there  Now I have seen it all.

GL this week.
 
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Posted: #121
I got AZ at +8 as well.  Let's hope the suspension of all those corners doesn't do them in.
 
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Posted: #122
 
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Posted: #123
on a few wit ya.  opposite sjsu.  Lets get paind my man
 
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Posted: #124

Whats up bud?  Good to see you are doing well man.  I haven't gambled since college hoops.  Haven't had any time.  Between work, grad school, and coaching high school football, I don't got much spare time.  Taking today off and watching some pigskin, so I tailed you blindly for some action.  Nebo looking good so far.  Since I hate psu, I bet that one a little bigger.  I know I can always "count" on you for some good info.  BOL man.

 
 
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Posted: #125
BTW man, is this the only forum you post at these days?  How's Joshy hittin the books these days?  Does he post anywhere?  He used to go on some decent runs during football season.  I am guessing it is against the rules still to mention another site, so maybe hit me up with a private message if u need to.  Thanks man and hope all is well.
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