Feeling beat up and confused on how to bet excellen teams as consistency is thrown out the window by them.
I feel I must look at the Top teams differently and now think about who is best setup for a strong finish and what lines Vegas offers. Watching the scores all day and games, I believe the SEC and Big 10 situation is still wide open.....as well as who takes a seat in the playoff.
AFTER WEEK #8 > TOP TEAMS
MOST LIKELY CONFERENCE WINNERS - TOP 4 Seeds - after Week #8
1. Oregon (Big 10)
2. Georgia (SEC) ** 1 loss **
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa St. (Big 12)
------------------------------------------------
My Actual Best Teams Ranking:
1. Oregon (zero losses)
2. Penn St. (zero losses)
3. Georgia (highest rated 1 loss)
4. Ohio St. (2nd highest rated 1 loss)
-------------------------------------
5. Texas (Quinn Ewers does not look right!)
6. Miami (no losses)
7. LSU
8. Notre Dame
9. Indiana (no losses)
10. Tennessee
--------------------In the Hunt-------------
11 Iowa St (no losses)
12 Clemson
13 Texas AM
14 BYU (no losses)
15 Kansas St.
----------------------Maybe --------------
16. Alabama (would rate higher if teams with no losses lost finally or higher SEC gets 2nd loss)
17. Ole Miss
18. Pittsburgh (no losses)
19. Boise
20. Missouri
#21 SMU #22 Illinois #23 Army (no losses) #24 Wisconsin #25 Washington St.
#26 Utah (if they win/if not #36) #27 Nebraska #28 South Carolina #29 Cincy #30 Vanderbilt
Next Tier (Rank #31 - 40)
Washington (#30 if Utah loses), UNLV (if they win) Colorado, Navy, Memphis, Michigan, Arizona St., Syracuse, Arkansas, VTECH
Top 50 Material
Louisville, Oklahoma, (UNLV if they lose) Georgia Tech, Duke, Iowa, Texas Tech, Tulane, North Texas, Liberty, USC
Top 15 Consideration Teams: - Future Tough games that pose a threat to Playoff Aspirations
Week #9
Penn St @ Wisconsin, LSU @ Texas AM, Notre Dame @ Navy, Washington @ Indiana
Week#10
Oregon @ Michigan, Ohio St @ Penn St., Texas Tech @ Iowa St., Pittsburgh @ SMU
Week#11
Georgia @ Ole Miss, Alabama @ LSU, Clemson @ Virginia Tech, BYU @ Utah, Michigan @ Indiana,
Week#12
Oregon @ Wisconsin, Tennessee @ Georgia, Cincy @ Iowa St., Clemson @ Pittsburgh,
Week#13
Indiana @ Ohio St., Iowa St @ Utah, BYU @ Arizona St., Texas AM @ Auburn, Cincy @ Kansas St., Army @ Notre Dame
Week#14
Texas @ Texas AM, Washington @ Oregon, Miami @ Syracuse, Kansas St @ Iowa St., S.Carolina @ Clemson
Week #15
4x Power 4 Conference Championship games
Week #16
Navy @ Army << only significant if Army had beaten Notre Dame in Week#13!
Play #1 - Syracuse +6 x 2U
- I don't think there is much separating these teams and Cuse has the better QB who loves challenges this year and knows how to drive the ball down the field
-California was expected to be blown out due to jetlag /excess travel but Pitt kept them in the game......the defense of Cal and Cuse are similar in their ability and stats
Going to be patient this week.....but this one screams value and can see Cuse ending Pitts winning streak
B.C. - Louisville.....a check of their matchups every year, the home team always wins their game
- I don't feel this cardinal team is as strong as last year and I feel B.C. is strongest in a while
EXCELLENT +7 or +10 pt teaser pick in my opinion (home dog)
Don't see Washington upsetting Indiana so TEASER KEY > INDIANA given the offense talent running or throwing....yes Huskies have a great secondary but Rourke and co will be able to mix it up and find soft spots on play action and run the ball effectively..... can Rogers match because I don't feel their run game is that good
Penn St is another team, year after year Spottie that collapses one game to lose on their perfect record and it almost always happens in October. Franklin can wear on his players from intensity during the week and then bonehead in-game decisions that the players seem to crumble under
I have to watch some film of some games to see how they are utilizing Allar in his sophomore year given the fact they are built very much like Ohio St with two outstanding backs and some strong WRs
I don't think Indiana at home will crack on their perfect record.....BYU I am going to potentially fade one game but their schedule looks manageable now the rest of the way
why have you had a lack of success ?
in other words, have you thought about what you may need to adjust going forward to stay ahead of the numbers?
& it definitely has been enjoyable this year, all the great matchups, geo @ Bama was great, Ohio St @ Oregon was great
there are several teams that could win the natty on any given day, we don’t have the huge gap anymore, the 12 team playoff will be awesome
Ya agree on your last point.
The issue is not confidence this year, the issue is not research....the issue is selection and catching teams that appear to be impressive playing a weaker team and then not covering a small 2 score cover which if I put my finger on it (thank you for inspiring it 
), that is what I need to avoid
I also have some of it is inconsistency in Totals choices and its usually a strength
Looking inward is health...finishing strongly is what I am going to aim to do
Would be winning if I just followed your plays but that would be boring 
(hitting 70%!) .....and so don't be surprised if I do when things get ugly potentially. There is always hopping on the HOO-TRAIN during bowl season to look forward to 
Something I am mulling..... which big spread with a top team has the best value? Using my rankings with SP+ for opponent. This will take time but going to do so where I feel there might be an edge and Vegas mistake:
I believe there might be excellent value in one of these and then will look at the top 10 with UNIT vs UNIT:
#1 Oregon -21.5 at home > neutral field line = -17.5 (4 pts at least different)
VS ILLINOIS (SP+ 45th)
- #2 Offense (42.2 pts) with home crowd vs #32 defense (21.1 pts) according to SP+
- #67 Offense of Illinois (27.4 pts) has to fight home crowd noise and the thirst of the Ducks to remain #1 and perhaps have the easiest pathway in playoffs? Ducks defense = 20th (17.9 pts)
Oregon recently > scalps at home = #1 SP+ team in Buckeyes and #72 Michigan St by 21 pts
ILLINOIS with road loss to Penn St of only 14 pts is noteworthy........ is Oregon better than Penn St by 7 pts more????
I see value in Illinois at +21.5 ....my impression of the Ducks defense is, they can hold teams to under 20 pts now and when they do, I don't feel their offense has to extend itself except to stay healthy now that there are MORE THAN 4 TEAMS in the playoff
- Illinois will fight to be impressive and try to win.....
- Ducks will fight to win but not dominate and might have difficulty doing so vs a team that scored a TD on Penn St. the #2 defense in their building, as well as held them to a low score as the 20th ranked offense
- Oregon and Penn St. rated almost even in SP+ ....was going to make this my #2 Play but am seeing Illinois best RB is OUT for the game.....but still think its playable since QB will be needed more than RB and Altemeyer has shown an ability to scramble and throw out of the pocket
Play #2 - Illinois +21.5 > toe in the water x HALF U
#2 Penn St -6.5 @ Wisconsin #20 SP+
- Wisconsin and USC similar but opposite...... Wisconsin with #10 defense but #60 defense.....now, Wisky has to try and put up points vs the #2 defense ....we obviously won't see Wisky score over 21 pts. Would 17 be enough??? Could they score 17 on Penn St defense? Illinois only got 7 pts but were on the road!
- I see Penn St putting pressure on Locke and keeping the Wisky run game in in front of them....so long drives that chew the clock.....the questions is, will Wisky hold Penn St on their drives?
- losing to USC by 17 is a red flag....and Alabama by 32.....which tells me, they are susceptible on defense if Penn St. can be motivated and I suspect they will but may not want to show much because OHIO ST is on on deck!!
PASS on the side! Strong Lean on the UNDER 47.5
Play #3 - Penn St . UNDER 47.5 x 1 Unit ..... I see a 27-17 type score at most....still have a 3 pt buffer
Not touching the Buckeyes game.....not sure how to evaluate a Nebraska team getting blown away 56 - 7 and now playing their second roadie in a row vs the #1 SP+ team .... will Buckeyes shut it down in the second half if they get up 3-4 scores? Maybe but I don't know if they will because they NOW HAVE 1 LOSS and NEED TO IMPRESS
Nebraska might have been looking ahead
I like the Huskers to keep it with 21
other past big 10 failure teams like Penn st Michigan have reasonable lines this week.
those favorite should at least split, I think both cover.
Big 10 plays and leans
Penn state
Michigan
Rutgers
Nebraska
Illinois
Thanks Spottie, two of my 5 favorite amigos chiming in this week and its great hearing from you guys 
Was not feeling so great about last week and the week before....spilled the beans for over $1500 in two weeks, basically the money is already there but I tend to top up at the end of the season if I need to get the balance back up to $5-6000.....and its harder to do when you are retired (still have a good work pension but mortgage too 
) and working part time only
Hey Spottie, a new employee (young) asked me if I ever heard of Acid Bath ....when I said I liked metal ....this is in the Sludge genre. Thoughts on them? I listened to one song...it was ok
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
