What betting mistakes did you learn from last season ?

I have been full time betting specifically college football for going on 5 years now. First three in Vegas , last two here in NY/NJ. After recapping my last season I have made the conclusion going into this year that I’m done with noon games. More than stats or any other variable the utmost important factor for any game I bet is psychology. If I feel comfortable getting into the mindset of a team taking the field I’m excellent. The problem is I have a difficult time assessing who is more motivated for early games. Sometimes the big favorite runs away early but sometimes there not there yet, after all the are amateur young men with a lot of money at their disposal. How motivated is Georgia to beat Vandy by 38 during a noon game? I don’t know. What I do know is the longer the day goes I get stronger. I start seeing things more clearly around the 3:30 slot and by 7 I’m locked in. The younger me was so eager for any action that I was willing to start at noon and go until 1 am but moving forward I think I will stay away from games before 3:30. 

I think sometimes I have gotten too caught up in the prior week's performance expecting a similar result the following week whether it be good or bad. Have to take into account inconsistency in performance. 

Pre Season ratings can be unreliable.  Especially for teams ranked 10-25 

College football is the biggest week to week sport of them all as far as betting and what results you will get.. You have to know the teams staffs and rosters, what teams they match up well against or not. Styles make fights and the transitive stuff casual fans use is THE ingredient to get plowed by the book. Pre season rankings also help you make money early because everyones ranking is based off of last years production even though their roster turnovers can be greatly different the next season, high ranked teams lay too much chalk or you can get live dogs at 200 or +300 or more that are undervalued week 1 and 2. 

In other words in football you have to be ahead of the market and know when the books are off from public perception, that's why my largest winning bets have always come at the very beginning and end of seasons in bowls. 

@jwheels86

You’re spot on. I love bowl season because of this. The last 15 or so are some of the easier bets of the season. 

I think you’ll find….as you’re hitting well in the early weeks…the lines will tighten.

Chasing, & Ego imo are the two reasons very few are able to successfully Handicap and Wager for a living, 

I will say, with all the information out there today, its more possible than ever to hit that 52.5% break even.  

Manage your bankroll, take gains along the way, set your unit play for the season, be humble, be frugal AF! Live to fight another day… help an elderly lady cross the street for luck 

It can be done…

Most importantly have fun, gamble within your means, never get in debt with a Local, ever, and again….I say be Frugal with your due diligence, and your wager amounts and you’ll hit over that elusive 53% for the season. 

GL it can be done 

Mine, don't bet Sept / Oct gms..my methods are based on home/ away stats. By the time Nov comes around, I can get a good bead on how teams have performed on the road , and in their own venue. Separate home / away stats are key

One lesson I learned last year was pick your spots on when teams show up and who you played last week matters…Took Toledo ML vs Colo St

Toledo SHOULD have beaten ND at ND the week before … only a penalty or couple plays away…you would think they are more than capable of returning home the week after to get a win and bounce back..of course they got whipped… 

learned the 2nd loss from one loss leason…

Ditto! I'm terrible on the noon games and the day always gets better the later it gets. Not going to bet noon games this year

Here's a mistake(s) about 98% of Covers makes on a regular basis ....

STUMBLING INTO EACH WEEK WITH NO PLAN.

You essentially are TRYING to lose money....

* bet at *one* spot

* bet favorites at the end of the week, trying to beat the closing line haha

* most bet popular plays here on Covers - which are usually PUBLIC FAVORITES - the lowest % winners 

* also only play the biggest games that attract the most attention/ wagers - these offer the worst value and are the toughest to win

A better way? - do just the opposite

Know WHEN to bet to get the best number - bet at multiple spots -  avoid the popular games with the greatest handle - bet totals, 1H/2H/ in-game (the bets they don't want you to place) -  don't be afraid of 'ugly' bets (eg New Mex St, UConn week 1).

Make life easy on yourself - don't be a chump - halfazz it- then look around on who to blame .... refs, coaches, weather ... game was rigged ....

Sticking to my instinct on a side rather than going with the most knowledgeable, sharp and/or safer side.

I'm definitely going to lay off double sided narrative games... Be patient on the game that has the clear cut system play angles.

@bookieassassin

 Definitely give you respect on last post…One of them I’ve been thinking about… bet uglies… You are so right…I normally wouldn’t bet a UConn/Utah state because we all hate the feeling of rooting for a UCONN to grind enough 1st downs while praying for them to get in the end zone 2-3 times … it’s agonizing… but you are right, only someone with the balls to take the pain wins in that situation… ugliness…,ahh…let’s go uglies.. bring ‘em on!

I second much of what Bookie Assassin said above....

Here is a short list I came up with .

1.... one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is wagering on the next game that's on TV that they want to watch..

2.  Avoid the big marqee games of the weeks ...Oddsnakers are very smart , they know how to induce the action they want , and or can be very sharp with their spreads and totals ...Never ceases to amaze me how many games they're within a point of the total /spread ...

3. Try to pick a small conference during the offseason and study it a little everyday...Pay attention to the spring games,  transfers , injuries , how the conference schedule pans out etc....Strongly believe there can be tremendous value when you mostly focus on one small conference...

4. INVEST IN FURURES !!!   Most of us will go bust at keast a few times during the season ...Sucks losing a whole bankroll with no action pending... Futures provide a ton of action for the initial investment ...To win Conference wagers not only give you action on the selected team each week, you also get to root against all other possible fees in their games ......If you go belly up betting on games , you'll still have pending Futures. 

@ToddC

 This is interesting, what do you mean by a double side narrative?

@wolfeman3

 I've actually found local info to be even harder to come by (outside twitter).  All the local newspapers, that are online now, charge to read their stuff.  So if I'm looking for information on Rice, to see how they camp is going, it's nearly impossible nowadays as both their unaffiliated "blog" and local newspaper want me to sign up for their Patreon or a subscription.

I never proofread 

Odd-snakers, like the sound of that! 

@SatNightFever05

You can add this extension to your browser (manually), by enabling developer mode - works for many sites

https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome/blob/master/README.md

used to work great - still works on 'soft' paywalls 

https://12ft.io/

I think it’s more beneficial to wait later in the week for a line due to a few reasons. I understand Bookie Assassin jumps on lines early. There is nothing wrong with that. I think there are benefits to late and early. 

1) CoVid can force a number of people out.

2) The weather report. This can affect totals and spreads. If you have a team -28’ and torrential rain is going to happen, an Under and the Dog look pretty good in slop!

3) Some questionable and game time injury decisions can help sway a line or total depending on the position of the player.

4) Lastly, if you don’t like a game, don’t play it. Sometimes no wager is a good wager!

@Moose1986

 I agree with most of what your saying . The funny thing is , last year I lost a lot of bets I was 100% confident as I placed the bet, simultaneously I won a lot of bets that my stomach was in knots as I bet . I like many have lost alot of sure bets, and won a few of uncomfortable ones. 

@iou69

 If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought I wrote that. Same here! I’ve left noon EST games alone after the 2015 season. I do well from 3:30 EST through the late West Coast games. 

Value your time.  Figure out what's realistic in terms of level of detail for the available time that you have.  My reality is that I need to do this full time and don't have that kinda time, ha!  

And a few years ago I started to add a performance review vs. tiers of opponents to my PR #s so I could get a sense of what direction & magnitude to adjust a baseline # vs. premier competition, strong opponent, above average opponent, average opponent, below average opponent, poor opponent, absolute worst opponents.  Whether its a talent issue or teams get up or play down to their level of competition, regardless of the explanation, I find it interesting to see this breakdown.

Weeks 1-4, bet more aggressive and trust your handicaps.  The betting models are getting tuned, so you can get some value.  I will include some 2-3 team parlays and first half bets.  defenses are usually better prepared in the early games, so look at the stronger defense, first halves, and unders.  Mismatches show up in the first half.

Weeks 5-8, less aggressive betting, as the betting models are tightening up.  Your model is better, but you have less information than Vegas, so public bets start to reverse.  There will be a one week where Vegas issues a major correction, as the dogs are hitting.  A couple of teams will become cover darlings in some form - May be first half team, sneaky good run defense, etc.  Few parlays, mostly ATS and a few totals.

Weeks 9 +:  conservative betting, betting models are tuned and injuries / weather are factors.  Vegas has the data, as well as sharps.  The public is betting on perception.  Limit total game, since you cannot get enough current data - no parlays, a few ATS/TT and increasing moneylines.  This is the bet 10 unit to win 1 units scenarios.

Bowls - back to early games, as the mismatches show up, as well as injuries reverse.