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Who out there likes Bama at - 24

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Posted: #151
Longhorn, Please refer to my post # 138 
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Posted: #152
Longhorn, Please refer to my post # 138 

I believe there is value to - 20 1/2 and I believe there will be
a chance to acquire it a that price and probably less.
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Posted: #153
I recall that post wiseguy, thanks!    I concur with you.   I just don't want to be a chump if I back Bama at -20 or under, and Va Tech steps up and punches bama in the mouth and actually makes it a contested game.   you know how it works...a 2012 bama team takes a 13th ranked Michigan team to the woodshed (due in part to the one dimensional robinson at QB), then the myth of saban grows, ie saban with a month + to prepare equals a beatdown and  a ATS win.   One of these days, that trend will come to an abrupt end, or maybe not.    I have done my research and I concur based on talent, this is a pretty big mismatch.   Va Tech back in the 1990s would surprise people, that won't happen with Saban and his staff.    they are preparing for a serious battle, and though A&M is on the back of their minds, they know that to play well on sep 14 in college station, they have to play at an elite level against Va Tech, which could lead to a ATS cover for a lot of us who back Bama.   I just want to be able to back Bama at the right line point to know that I am doing it because it makes sense, not because its a Bama "can't lose or in the case of betting ATS, that bama will definitely cover.  I don't want to be a chump... 
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Posted: #154
Longhorn, In theory , if you are backing any team
vs the pointspread , you are assuming risk. The
correct play takes into consideration all elements
to give you the assurance that your team will not only
win, but do so by a comfortable margin vs the spread.
When I measure value, I do so with what I believe is a
contingency as well.
Anything can happen in a game to change the outcome
of the matchup ,we accept that risk when we make our
wager. But when we select a side , we do so based on
our best assessment of the potential outcome.
You may want to say , if I can't but it at a price I'm
comfortable with, say -18 . I will pass on this game.
then you can rest a little easier based on your decision.


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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Longhorn, In theory , if you are backing any team
vs the pointspread , you are assuming risk. The
correct play takes into consideration all elements
to give you the assurance that your team will not only
win, but do so by a comfortable margin vs the spread.
When I measure value, I do so with what I believe is a
contingency as well.
Anything can happen in a game to change the outcome
of the matchup ,we accept that risk when we make our
wager. But when we select a side , we do so based on
our best assessment of the potential outcome.
You may want to say , if I can't buy it at a price I'm
comfortable with, say -18 . I will pass on this game.
then you can rest a little easier based on your decision.




 



Sorry for the typo.
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Posted: #156

so wise guy,buy backing bama up to 20.5,you are assuming that they will win by at least 28?   Thus a buffer over your perception,  If you thought that they would win by 24 or less, you would probably not pick Bama to cover -20.5?   Right?  Thus, one's confident level on their picks relates to the perception of the outcome v. the spread.   That's why an opening line of Bama -14 or whatever it was got quickly bid up, due to perception.

Do you believe that Bama is 28 points better than Va Tech on a neutral field (ie your perceived spread plus the buffer)?

 

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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

so wise guy,buy backing bama up to 20.5,you are assuming that they will win by at least 28?   Thus a buffer over your perception,  If you thought that they would win by 24 or less, you would probably not pick Bama to cover -20.5?   Right?  Thus, one's confident level on their picks relates to the perception of the outcome v. the spread.   That's why an opening line of Bama -14 or whatever it was got quickly bid up, due to perception.

Do you believe that Bama is 28 points better than Va Tech on a neutral field (ie your perceived spread plus the buffer)?

 




No, not necessarily ,and I derate for a neutral field as well.
I'm not going to say what my contingency is , as that has
to do with assumed risk as well. You need to look carefully
at this game and draw your own conclusions relative to
outcome and risk you are willing to assume.
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




No, not necessarily ,and I derate for a neutral field as well.
I'm not going to say what my contingency is , as that has
to do with assumed risk as well. You need to look carefully
at this game and draw your own conclusions relative to
outcome and risk you are willing to assume.




Longhorn, to put it simply, there is a reason I made
an effort to acquire my position at -17. as value erodes
quickly after that .  I am seeking maximum value ,
with minimum risk. If it opened at - 20 1/2 , I probably
would have sought other opportunities that offered better
value vs the pointspread.
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Posted: #159

thanks Wise...

I guess what you say applies to all other games...right now, the lines seem to be close to the perceived power delta...what scares me about this particular matchup is the 5-6 points of Bama love built into the line, that may be justified.   maybe im putting too much weight into the P Steele power ratings.  I am sure you know he has Bama at -13 over Va Tech.   Every other matchup, I agree with you 100%, perception, risk - reward tradeoff.   But, what concerns me about the Bama v Va Tech matchup, is following the hoard of people on Bama.   Believe me, Bama (@ -18 to -20) has been one of my top 3 picks for over two months.   Thus, I am still fishing and confirming, which I believe is the prudent thing to do for serious cappers...

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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

thanks Wise...

I guess what you say applies to all other games...right now, the lines seem to be close to the perceived power delta...what scares me about this particular matchup is the 5-6 points of Bama love built into the line, that may be justified.   maybe im putting too much weight into the P Steele power ratings.  I am sure you know he has Bama at -13 over Va Tech.   Every other matchup, I agree with you 100%, perception, risk - reward tradeoff.   But, what concerns me about the Bama v Va Tech matchup, is following the hoard of people on Bama.   Believe me, Bama (@ -18 to -20) has been one of my top 3 picks for over two months.   Thus, I am still fishing and confirming, which I believe is the prudent thing to do for serious cappers...




Longhorn, you have just told me all I need to know,
You are using Steele's power ratings to assess this
matchup ,That's OK . If that's what you use that's fine .
If I were you I would wait to see if a more favorable number came to you, or bet Va Tech if that seems
like the right thing for YOU. I can't make that call for
you. It seems like you want to bet Bama but you trust
Phil Steele's assessment at Bama - 13.
If that is the case , you have 3 options:

1. Wait for Bama to go down to -14 or so.

2. Take the other side and bet Va Tech at - 21.

3. Pass on the game altogether.

That decision, my friend rests solely in your hands.
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

thanks Wise...

I guess what you say applies to all other games...right now, the lines seem to be close to the perceived power delta...what scares me about this particular matchup is the 5-6 points of Bama love built into the line, that may be justified.   maybe im putting too much weight into the P Steele power ratings.  I am sure you know he has Bama at -13 over Va Tech.   Every other matchup, I agree with you 100%, perception, risk - reward tradeoff.   But, what concerns me about the Bama v Va Tech matchup, is following the hoard of people on Bama.   Believe me, Bama (@ -18 to -20) has been one of my top 3 picks for over two months.   Thus, I am still fishing and confirming, which I believe is the prudent thing to do for serious cappers...




Longhorn, NEVER worry about the Hoard , you are betting a
number, not with or against a bunch bunch of bozos who
think they've got it figured out.But you must be confident in
your wager. If you know what your W / L percentage is from
the last few years, it will tell you a little bit more if you should
wager on either side or pass.
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Posted: #162

Wise

First of all, I would never take Va Tech...

Second, I am not saying that Steele's PP is accurate.  He's human like the rest of us.   Just in this first week, what is a good number.   If we listen to Jimmy, it would be up to 28+, Steele probably up to 15.  I know its a guessing game.  And I have to assume that if the "hoard" meaning the purse, is really all on Bama, then the spread will go way up.   There is obviously some contrarian love for Va Tech.   Right now, I have 4 matchups, and I will bet 3...

Alabama -20 (or better) over Va Tech

Michigan -27 (or better) over CMU

Texas -42 (or better) over NM St

Maryland -17 (or better) over FIU

Thanks for your guidance my friend.  You are a class act!

 

 

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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

First of all, I would never take Va Tech...

Second, I am not saying that Steele's PP is accurate.  He's human like the rest of us.   Just in this first week, what is a good number.   If we listen to Jimmy, it would be up to 28+, Steele probably up to 15.  I know its a guessing game.  And I have to assume that if the "hoard" meaning the purse, is really all on Bama, then the spread will go way up.   There is obviously some contrarian love for Va Tech.   Right now, I have 4 matchups, and I will bet 3...

Alabama -20 (or better) over Va Tech

Michigan -27 (or better) over CMU

Texas -42 (or better) over NM St

Maryland -17 (or better) over FIU

Thanks for your guidance my friend.  You are a class act!

 

 



Longhorn, Best of Luck Bud, You still have plenty of time
to research your plays. LV lines should be up by Friday.
Thank you for your kind words.

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Posted: #164
Longhorn, Just wanted to follow up,
Wanted to refer to my post # 103 as well that sums
it up more clearly.

While there is value to - 20 1/2 , that does not mean
that I would bet it at that number. 17 or less would
be attractive to me......

Week 1 matchups can be challenging because you
don't have a point of reference on how a team will
perform this year. I'm sticking by my strategy and will
not bet on Bama if the number is over - 17. Hope
that helps.

Best of Luck Bud. 
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Posted: #165
definitely wise.  I share that sentiment.  
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Posted: #166
its up to Bama -22 on Heritage as of today...I think I will take them up to -21, but no more...this is going to be a nasty blowout...
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

its up to Bama -22 on Heritage as of today...I think I will take them up to -21, but no more...this is going to be a nasty blowout...





I saw that, but I believe there's a small amount of cash moving
that #.. It make no sense for it to be bet up like that this early,
especially since LV books haven't posted lines yet.
I believe that number will go down and you can but it at a
better price.




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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:






I saw that, but I believe there's a small amount of cash moving
that #.. It make no sense for it to be bet up like that this early,
especially since LV books haven't posted lines yet.
I believe that number will go down and you can buy it at a
better price.




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Posted: #169
Longhorn, FYI , It's also at -21 at the Stratosphere here as well.
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

its up to Bama -22 on Heritage as of today...I think I will take them up to -21, but no more...this is going to be a nasty blowout...




Longhorn, Just remember 2 words. Risk and Value .
you can always " Choke up " on your wager to compensate for the additional risk you will assume at -21
If you wait, you might be able to get -19 to - 20 1/2. Big
difference.
Best of Luck 

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Posted: #171
i love my +24.

love it.
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

i love my +24.

love it.




Have you recovered from your " meltdown " yesterday ?

I love my Bama - 17 too. I've got a whole lot more on Bama -17
than you've got on Va Tech at - 24.
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Wise

First of all, I would never take Va Tech...

Second, I am not saying that Steele's PP is accurate.  He's human like the rest of us.   Just in this first week, what is a good number.   If we listen to Jimmy, it would be up to 28+, Steele probably up to 15.  I know its a guessing game.  And I have to assume that if the "hoard" meaning the purse, is really all on Bama, then the spread will go way up.   There is obviously some contrarian love for Va Tech.   Right now, I have 4 matchups, and I will bet 3...

Alabama -20 (or better) over Va Tech

Michigan -27 (or better) over CMU

Texas -42 (or better) over NM St

Maryland -17 (or better) over FIU

Thanks for your guidance my friend.  You are a class act!

 

 



Longhorn, you really think Texas will cover that bigass spread? Yes i'm an aggie but straight up this has nothing to do with that crap. they just have NOT been very impressive the last few years and although they've finally annointed Ash as the QB and said they're going to move into a hurry up, I could see this more like a 38-3 type game. of course they SHOULD cover but the last couple years are scaring me off. i'd lean towards state, check the emotions
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

i love my +24.

love it.






P. S. Don't forget to take your meds.
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Posted: #175

jmyane - thanks for posting

I understand your concern on Texas -42.   What is texas ATS at home against patsies 2009-2012...that's right 0-4.   yes, I am a homer, and yes, much like you aggies, I may be a bit delusional in a hopeful way.   mack brown is on the hot seat, take that to the bank.  if he goes 5-7 year (he won't) then he's gone.  maybe even 6-7 would show him the door too.   of the range above, only 2009 was special, because we had the McCoy to Shipley combo, and we had muschamp.   we now have a somewhat passive, consummate ceo coach in mack brown who does not have a killer instinct.  

I take a bit of a contrarian view in this matchup.   how bad is "no conference new coach new coordinator, new QB NM St aggies going to be?    It Texas had a more behind kicking coach, this spread could be 50+.    NM St is really bad.  Texas could win this game 90 to 0.  yes, they could, take that to the bank.   But, with a weenie like M Brown, after scoring 28 to 35 in the first half, he "may" go passive, put in the backs, diaz will call some stupid blitzes, and NM st will get 1-2 cheap scores.  that could happen...but not so fast my friend...

I think texas will roll them, hard...we will score 35 in the first half, then come out in the 3rd and score 21 more.   nm st will not get 75 yards rushing, and will not get more than 100 passing and that will be in the 4th quarter.

Texas 59

NM St 3

I welcome your comments.  maybe I should set up a separate thread for this game.  the line has been stuck on BOL on -42 for almost two months,.   its not going doing.  so prima facie, either folks are on texas (obviously not many) or nothing...do you think anyone has the courage to back a team as bad as NM St.   I don't see this line going any higher up to kickoff, because of the reasons you cite.   If you live in Texas, you have heard of the scandal with the UT Board of Regents (ie unprecedented interference) and our AD Dodds trickleing down to M Brown.  And it has started with Gov Perry himself.    I think M Brown and the program and team are tired of having their manhood called out while your Aggies have been doing well.   As a result, I honestly believe texas will cover an otherwise lofty spread, considering their recent performance...

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