WVU-USF

I was thinking the same with the defense.  Think they will control the tempo all game. 

Bendi - wish I was off tomorrow too.  But I gotta go in.  Looking forward to the write up.  Im outty for the night.

Later fellas.

I see this USF/WVU game differently but I could be dead wrong.  I think the DE play by USF is going to force WVU into mistakes. 

That SOS pairings is suspect.  WVU played better bad teams, but the good teams they have played arent as good as the good teams USF played.  Flop schedules and I think they both might have the others W/L record. 

USF at home is very tough.  They have a nice record there.

 love the over!

on South Florida +3 but BOL

Once again, I have yet to lock anything in....

on WVU a little, GL.

You want to discuss this game tomorrow?  So we can come up with a legitimate side/total to play?  I've already played South Florida but I think when we get together and get things right we come up with some good stuff.  So whats the word

But for now, bibendi needs

Alright I'll be on here most of the day then.

Usf seems like the way to go to me. Usf +3.5 already in since tuesday. W.Virginia coming off last game imo will come out flat. I think USF will want this one more and playing on friday night lights on pimetime will have that staduim pumping. I heard somethings on a satelite radio handicapping show this morning that only solidifies my thinking. I do think this game will be close but i have USf winning outright 31-27  just my humble opinion gl all

So Friday Night brings us the Mountaineers of WVU and the Bulls of USF. West Virginia brings a gaudy 6-1, 2-0 mark into this game while South Florida boasts a respectable 5-2, 1-2 overall mark. The Mountaineers are coming off an emotional come from behind win over the Huskies, while the Bulls just got spanked in Pittsburgh. Now as with every write-up, I will focus on both teams losses this season and see where it all went wrong...beginning with WVU...This game was crazy from the get-go with rain delaying it for nearly an hour. Once the game got underway, WVU struck quickly. It took WVU only 5 plays to punch in the 1st TD and take a quick 7-0 lead. Strangely they did not even use Devine until he punched it in from a yard out. OK so I just ran through the entire play-by-play and WVU beat themselves. Without 6 turnovers, most of them leading directly to Auburn scores, this game was a blowout. Devine was able to do whatever he wanted. So how is this going to translate into tonight...well WVU isnt a very complicated team. They have an awesome running back, a QB who tries to make plays but ends up hurting his team, and a defense who is going to give up points and big plays. Normally when I dissect a loss I can pick out a matchup that directly lead to it, in this one the real reason I am seeing is the brain of Jarrett Brown. So another key is to find out if this is a common trend for Brown, or we can chalk it up as a fluke outing...Outside of this ballgame he has 2 picks the entire season!!  So I move on to the most recent game they have played this season, UCONN...UConn controlled the game for the most part. Outside of returning the opening kick for a TD, WVU did nothing on offense and that was for 1 reason. They decided it was more important to get Brown involved than Devine. Move to the second half and you will see drives that consist of 75% Devine runs instead of 75% Brown passes. It is what works for WVU and I wish I had some faith in ole Bill Stewart, but I just dont and thus cannot expect him to even pick up on this fact. WVU gave up 501 total yards at home!! With 378 coming through the air Lets remember this is not a prolific offense the Huskies run. They also gave up 300 through the air against Auburn. And everyone remembers the Colorado where they could not stop the Buffs. So as far as I'm concerned, to beat WVU you are going to need an air attack and you are going to have to be good against the run. If you stop the run, you force Brown to throw. Brown also likes to move in the pocket so you need fast DE's to contain him and make him throw the football. Next stop is South Florida

So I move on to South Florida. After playin a whole bunch of nobodys in their first few games, they whooped up on FSU and only allowed 7 points. That's not to say that FSU didnt have their chances. They went for it on 4th and goal and fumbled the ball away at the 7...both immediately taken advantage of by the Bulls offense. This game was all kinds of pathetic. With FSU having dominated the play but it not reflected on the scoreboard. BJ Daniels was able to hit 2 huge passes, but other than that he was horrrrrrrrrrible in the air. USF will not pass all over WVU and this is a problem. You can get quick scores in the air vs. this team but it isnt looking likely tonight. Daniels was able to run for more than 100, which is an X-factor considering WVU has yet to really face a running QB. So what happened in their losses. Well they didnt capitalize against Cincy. They had this game right where they needed it, but Daniels can not sustain a drive through the air. He is all kinds of beast running the football and keeps plays alive. But if he continues to throw the ball down the field, this is going to favor WVU. Now the key is whether or not the game against Pitt is the throw away game, or the beginning of the annual mid-season slide for the Bulls. Oh hell, I've seen enough to know this....

1. Noel Devine will run for 150+ aided by 2 runs over 50 yards.

2. Jarrett Brown and BJ Daniels will both throw atleast 2td's and 2 int's and both teams will capitalize on those turnovers

3. There will be a lot of points scored.

4. Daniels decision making will decide the game

5. Bill Stewart will look like he has no idea he is coaching a football game

6. Leavitt will have spiked hair and a visor

7. USF is too 1 dimensional to win big football games.

8. WVU 38, USF 27

Thx bibendi.  On WVU & the Over. Tough one for Va Tech last night huh.

Typical move for the Hokies. They wont win another game ATS all season. They are so used to winning that when they had no chance at the ACC championship they packed it in. Horrible coaching will do that to you

With you on WVU tonight -3.  I think their run D makes the difference, and Devine ain't to shabby either.   I also have WVU in a tease at +4 along with NM St +51 and GT -5.5.

BOL... 

devine is fine   

Crossing zero in a teaser

like both, gl

Nice write-up Bibendi23!  I just can't get last weeks S. Florida - Cincinnati game out of my head.  S. Florida went into the game with their freshman quarterback and for the most part he played like a freshman (passing and decision making not very good).  This being said, they were still taking it to Cincinatti early but kept failing to produce points.  I was impressed with S. Florida's team speed and talent.  Questions are: Does S. Florida come out and play a full game and will the young quarterback have a strong game?  I'm going to give their quarterback another shot this week.  He's young but very talented.  I say S. Florida +3

 

No disrespect, but seems to me like you're looking way too much into what teams did a week ago (or 5) rather than what they will do today (tomorrow).
All those points, and there are some more, point to game being a grinder.

You said it yourself, Brown doesn't throw picks and Daniels will run because he can't throw. How do you account for 4 TDs+INTs between them two then ? There is Brown vs ok pass-D and Devine vs not too solid run-D. Again, you said it yourself, WVU are easy to figure, they play against the teams weakness, either run or pass, and run seems like a good option here.

On the other side there is USF that's been horrible on defense lately, but their coach (Leavitt) likes to play defense and good defense too. There is a bigger chance that he will get his team to step up on the D and play conservative, smart, long drives using his badass running-QB to move the chains slowly rather than make them go all wild in a shootout.

Conf game on the road, a hot fav laying _only_ 3 (when we know they should have been at least -4.5) vs a struggling home team that can't play any defense last 2 games. Seems too easy ?

I see a controlled grinder from both sides and a late winner in a low scoring game. I'd hate throwing my money away if you're right tho, so... good luck either way

23! Get it done! BOL

I agree with almost everything. I would have hit all of the points you bring up if I had finished the write-up. I was going to go on to say that while Brown has not thrown picks, this is the type of game where he will. USF will bring pressure off the edge with their talented DE's and Brown wont be able to leave the pocket often. This is what Auburn was able to do to him. USF is also very susceptible to the big play as witnessed the last 2 weeks. They will bring pressure and when you pressure WVU they have the athletes to turn a quick screen pass into an 80 yard TD. On the flip side, you have USF who havent seen a 3-3-5 like WVU plays all season. It should confuse Daniels into a few mistakes and is the ultimate bend but dont break defense. What is does help with is limiting Daniels ability to run and make him throw the ball. I think this is a very entertaining matchup

I just think the firepower of WVU is going to be too much for USF and they will use the USF speed against them.

Nice writeup-

With you on WV

Like the under on the game because it seems that more games are going under during the week