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Auburn at Kansas State (09/18/2014)

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Posted: #76
AUBURN TIGERS

 
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Posted: #77

If it is an offshore book, they can do anything they want.   They will probably cancel your bet and call it a no play.  Happens all the time.

If they do cancel your bet, please post here and let us know which book is doing this.  Would be good to know.

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by learnhardway:

i just got Auburn +2.5 +165 for the large on sportingbet.com
obviously is an error on the page but once you take it, they can't void it
I

 
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by learnhardway:

i just got Auburn +2.5 +165 for the large on sportingbet.com
obviously is an error on the page but once you take it, they can't void it

They will void that play in a heartbeat.... And if they don't, good luck getting paid. Websites are crazy, stick with the organic, home grown places....

 
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Posted: #79
FADING REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT HAS WON 61% OF THE TIME THIS PAST YEAR SINCE THE PUBLIC IS LATE TO CATCH THE GOOD NUMBER AND JUST COPIES THE WISE GUY'S PLAYS. THE WISE GUYS PLAYED KSU AT 9.5 NOT AT 7.5.....THE WANTABEE WISE GUYS WILL CONTINUE TO POUND 7.5.....I'M JUST JOE PUBLIC AND SIMPLY LAYING THE POINTS HERE IS BRILLIANT!!

WAR EAGLE
 
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Posted: #80
I was in this morning at KST +9.  If my book goes below 7, I may try to middle this bad boy.
 
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Posted: #81
Serious line movement this morning, line dropped from Auburn-9 all the way to Auburn-7. I'm not drinking the K-state is gonna play great at home on Thursday night koolaid. I doubled my bet  Auburn -7 sounds just fine to me. Auburn football players don't give a shite that it's Thursday night, that the stadium is full of screaming purple fans, they play SEC football, every away game in conference is a screaming madhouse, that wont effect their play. These Auburn players are one battle tested group, look at the games they played last year. They know Kstate at home is tough, they will bring their A game. Everybody line up facts to support their bet, screw that, just study the teams look at the line and make your play. I did and I'm betting Auburn. Looks like a great game to watch.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

Serious line movement this morning, line dropped from Auburn-9 all the way to Auburn-7. I'm not drinking the K-state is gonna play great at home on Thursday night koolaid. I doubled my bet  Auburn -7 sounds just fine to me. Auburn football players don't give a shite that it's Thursday night, that the stadium is full of screaming purple fans, they play SEC football, every away game in conference is a screaming madhouse, that wont effect their play. These Auburn players are one battle tested group, look at the games they played last year. They know Kstate at home is tough, they will bring their A game. Everybody line up facts to support their bet, screw that, just study the teams look at the line and make your play. I did and I'm betting Auburn. Looks like a great game to watch.


Auburn's offense is a steamroller. I'm playing Auburn -7.5 BOL 
 
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Posted: #83
Taking candy from a baby!!  Auburn easy. 
 
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Posted: #84
34-31..... 
 
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Posted: #85
 I am teasing Auburn to -.5 with alanta even
pollockanesian
 
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Posted: #86
Maaaan, that Kansas State stuff sounds good, but I'm all over Auburn. #goingin
 
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Posted: #87
I took the over 65.5 about an hour ago.  Now its down to 63...I'm feeling pretty stupid at the moment. 

I would try to cancel the bet out and bet the other way, but knowing my luck I'd probably middle the thing for the worse! hahah.

These things happen.
 
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Posted: #88
let's see, reverse line movement, prime-time home game in Manhattan.
I see a 1 score game either way... 
I'll be a retard and take the Wildcats +7 and the Thursday night under @ 63
 
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Posted: #89
I work with a kid that went to K State and he said, and I quote, "It will be the largest and loudest crowd in KSU history" 

Take it for what it's worth.  I'm staying away on the sides and praying that somehow the over covers.

BOL all.
 
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Posted: #90

Not following all this reverse line movement talk... 56/44 is pretty damn close to even.. esp on a site like this where most of the consensus is 70/30 on the favorite.  IMO I would say a 56/44 showing on this site indicates a good bit of action on the dog, explaining the drop in the line.  I am no expert but I have been following covers for many years and have gotten a good feel for their consensus.   

 
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Posted: #91

CappingVet nobody is pounding their chest Maximus and I had a discussion on that lou Virginia forum and this is the first time Ive talked to him since so Im sorry your little vagina puckered when you read that I didn't know any of that involved you or why it would bother you so much I don't have an Ego on here that would be pointless and get me nowhere financially LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO

TedCyclone I cant say much about that game they obviously didn't cover and will most likely not do so well in conference play after watching that but Kentucky played pretty well on defense shark had brought up some very valid points I agreed with that's all....we were dead wrong

And GordoPockets, if you actually read that correctly you would see that I said past statistics are Completely irrelevant for THIS GAME!....."this game" being the most important part of the sentence I didn't say it was irrelevant for EVERY GAME....that would be silly

 
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Posted: #92
BOISE STATE OWNS OREGON
 
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Posted: #93
Holt sighting! There was all kinds of cheating sun and mon! Where vue at? Big D lets get cheddar bob dollows. K st ov LAHge!!! Hate hate.
 
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Posted: #94
There really is no other play here, other than Auburn. Doesn't even matter that K State is at home, as they rank 105th in all of NCAAF for home advantage power ranking at -3.1 with the median range being 51.1.

This is one of K State's toughest matchup's this year and they have a 19.8% chance of winning this game outright. The 3rd lowest ranking out of the 5 big games that they have this year.

I do see this game going over the total because as Auburn's opponents have a 83% success rate scoring on them when in the redzone. While K States opponents have a 100% success rate. K state will get beat tonight in completions, 3rd down situations and will be out rushed.

Auburn's last 10 game power ranking is #3 while K States is #11



Auburn in a high scoring game 

and the over     
 
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Posted: #95
TedCyclone I cant say much about that game they obviously didn't cover and will most likely not do so well in conference play after watching that but Kentucky played pretty well on defense shark had brought up some very valid points I agreed with that's all....we were dead wrong

And being wrong is okay and happens. The point is don't be so factual with your analyzing of other peoples picks. Analyze yes, but you "sound" as if picking KState is simply insane.  That being said Ill roll with KState tonight and the pts at home.  

Cowboy
 
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Posted: #96

Quote Originally Posted by oahuboy808:

Unless you can afford it, having 10K on one game is stupid.. I've always thought betting the same amount or close to it each bet is the best way to make money..

that my biggest mistake every week. hit all the small ones and loose the big one!

good advice

 
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Posted: #97
[Quote: Originally Posted by Tedcyclone] TedCyclone I cant say much about that game they obviously didn't cover and will most likely not do so well in conference play after watching that but Kentucky played pretty well on defense shark had brought up some very valid points I agreed with that's all....we were dead wrong

And being wrong is okay and happens. The point is don't be so factual with your analyzing of other peoples picks. Analyze yes, but you "sound" as if picking KState is simply insane.  That being said Ill roll with KState tonight and the pts at home.

Understood I don't want to offend people on here best of luck to you and everyone else betting k state

 
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Posted: #98
[Quote: Originally Posted by KiD_ChaoS] [Quote: Originally Posted by Tedcyclone] TedCyclone I cant say much about that game they obviously didn't cover and will most likely not do so well in conference play after watching that but Kentucky played pretty well on defense shark had brought up some very valid points I agreed with that's all....we were dead wrong

And being wrong is okay and happens. The point is don't be so factual with your analyzing of other peoples picks. Analyze yes, but you "sound" as if picking KState is simply insane.  That being said Ill roll with KState tonight and the pts at home.

Understood I don't want to offend people on here best of luck to you and everyone else betting k state

no worries not offended...
Cowboy
 
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Posted: #99
after listening to brian griese talk up auburn for a solid 5 minutes i'm going to pull the trigger on ksu. the line seems about right to me, i just think with it being a thursday game and a completely new environment for auburn that home field is worth a couple more points than usual. 

ksu +8


 
 
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Under 64
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