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Cincinnati at Louisville (10/15/2010)

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Posted: #76
Small Daddy, I forgot about another reason why I like the Under. I usually go back the last four years of their meetings and none of the games went over 52 pts.
 
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Posted: #77

i dont think its matter of cincys oline giving up sacks its a matter or their qb trying to make plays and use his legs.

 

all mobile qbs end up getting sacked more often.   a tackle on the qb trying  to run behind the line of scrimmage is a sack.

 

and even more so were talking about louisville lol, like stated before cinci gave up 2 sacks to oklahoma who has nfl pros all over their defense.

 

louisville has no one on defense relatively close to the talent oklahoma did....

 

GL to all tho

 
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Posted: #78
why is everyone on the under when both teams have shitty defenses and decent threats on offense? just makes no sense?
 
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Posted: #79
These teams got shitty def? I don't know about you, but giving up an average of 20 points per game for each team is pretty good def in my eyes.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by sharpie73:

dalupus, good looking out.  However, the line does not move based on percentage of bets placed.  It moves based on how much money on each side.  For example, if 99 out of 100 people bet $100 on a side and the other person put $50,000 on the other side, the line could move in favor of the 1 person.  Most people would incorrectly see this as reverse line movement.  But the books are just trying to get equal "money" on both sides so they can have zero liability (ideally) and collect on the juice.  Sportsbooks actually do not like to gamble as ironic as that sounds.


correct.   The point I was trying to make, which I guess I should have been more clear on, is that sharps and syndicates seem to be on cincy and public on l'ville.  so if you are looking to figure out what side sharps are on this is a very good indication.

This assumes your average joe makes smaller bets than sharps and syndicates, which I would argue is a valid assumption.
This also assumes that the public bets mostly on gameday and the pro's bet at the beginning of the week.

In general when I see late betting action going more to one side and the line not moving to compensate, it makes me look long and hard to fade that side.  



 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by dalupus:

well from looking at the bet data this is what I see. 
take it for what it is worth

bets placed before yesterday
46% louisville
54% cincy

of bets placed since yesterday
52% on louisville
48% on cincy

but line has moved back to 3 from 2.5
I see it as a ploy to throw the public into louisville.

also a side note.  public has been pounding the under.
yesterday it was
52% over
48% under
today
46% over
54% under
and total has dropped by a full 2 points.  
will know more when I see how the public reacts to the 2 point drop


just an update.
bets placed since this post is
l'ville 60%
cincy 40%

john q public seems to be backing l'ville hard. 
I don't know how long books will keep the +3 out there but they must be loving people eating the -115 juice to get the full fieldgoal.
it may drop back down to  2.5
in particular pinnacle makes me pause.  they are up to -114
They almost never never juice that hard.  


also it seems the drop down to 56 for the total was an overcorrection.   bets are pouring in on the over.   expect it to go back up by atleast a half a point
 
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Posted: #82
weather is chilly but no rain.
 
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Posted: #83

These teams play every year and it has been a reasonable low scoring game every time out since 2006 whether the game itself was tight or not. This is a rivalry game and it means a lot to these schools so it will be some serious hitting by the defense, this usually makes for a low scoring game.

UNDER 58

 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by l3ool3:

These teams got shitty def? I don't know about you, but giving up an average of 20 points per game for each team is pretty good def in my eyes.


removing the IAA and should be IAA teams
(e ky, memphis, ark state, mi oh and ind state)

they are giving up 29.4 per game. 
total actually seems to be about right on.
i will give a slight edge to the over since offenses tend to get better as season goes on and def's not so much. 

this could be a fun one to watch.   last team with ball wins

cincy 48 lville 42
(maybe a little high but would make for a fun game to watch )

before you flame no I don't really expect it to get quite that high
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:

These teams play every year and it has been a reasonable low scoring game every time out since 2006 whether the game itself was tight or not. This is a rivalry game and it means a lot to these schools so it will be some serious hitting by the defense, this usually makes for a low scoring game.

UNDER 58



sure 2006 was a little low scoring 40

2007 52
2008 48
2009 51


although 2004 is my fav.  70-7.    how do you even score 70 pts.
 
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Posted: #86
How is the wind?  Wind is a much bigger factor than rain or snow.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by sharpie73:

How is the wind?  Wind is a much bigger factor than rain or snow.


8pm -- 6mph
 
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Posted: #88
Thanks for the informative posts but I can almost guarantee the Cardinals are going to win this game just for the simple fact I'm sick and tired of waiting for the dogs to eat, they're driving me fuckingnuts with this BS!!!!          This one could actually be closer than that KST/KU game though, I mean WTF was that after letting N stomp ya at home then go out on the road and take it out on a rockshockjockdon't eat chalk KU!   I would load up on LV though because I know its time for them to let a home dog do it and the main reason is I got  --  Bearcats -3    O yea one more key stat to the game LUCK you'll have it or u won't
 
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Posted: #89
  Teaser LV +9 Over 50  Small Play   Sharp
 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

  Teaser LV +9 Over 50  Small Play   Sharp

 

hey sharp... you have got me out of trouble alot in the past... im down a  little this week going into today... so whats ur big picks for today and tomorrow?? thanks for all info you give

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

Bearcats/Cardinal Under 59.5


Hope it hits @ 56 now
 
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Posted: #92

Total will be in the mid 60's.  Look for Louisville to come out firing.

 
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Posted: #93
Joshcencil - my plays are posted in the Hawaii/Nevada thread and/or on "my page"... take a look.  Maybe something will stand out to you that you like... hope you get your money back.. Sharp
 
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Posted: #94
josh - no big picks for today.... only tomorrow's games.... send a friend request to me... I'll talk to you about a few of them.  Sharp
 
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Posted: #95

Quote Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

josh - no big picks for today.... only tomorrow's games.... send a friend request to me... I'll talk to you about a few of them.  Sharp

 

Ok.. thanks

 
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Posted: #96
LOU

UNDER
 
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Posted: #97
louisville and the over for me...prolly regret it but lets gamble...btw love the under in the baseball game bol all
 
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Posted: #98
first lean is Cinci, only because they have played a higher caliber schedule than lville. with that though both teams can throw up the points. traditionaly in the Past, they totals have been low. bucking the trend this is a new year and 2 differnet teams taking the over medium play 1 unit. Over 56.
 
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Posted: #99
Louisville  & Under to keep me interested tonight

 
 
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Posted: #100
ok i don't pot alot and don't call myself a winning better. but looking at the stat louv. is the better team and they are getting points plus they are at home.. i'm thinking louv. 35 cinn 28.. can't go against te better team at home....
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