would it be correct to say that the oddsmakers know about this trend, and therefore tend to open the total low, knowing the general public will be on the over since it is the only game on the board?
and would it also be correct to say that the under frequently looks terrible by the end of the 1st quarter, but the 2nd half turns into a durge-fest?
just a couple observations for those looking to play the under...
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just to add to the whole under trend here...
would it be correct to say that the oddsmakers know about this trend, and therefore tend to open the total low, knowing the general public will be on the over since it is the only game on the board?
and would it also be correct to say that the under frequently looks terrible by the end of the 1st quarter, but the 2nd half turns into a durge-fest?
just a couple observations for those looking to play the under...
*warning please if you do not believe in trends then this is not for you. If your testicles hurt often as you squeeze for your plays this is also not for you.*
Under
Aloha
Sometimes I just like to squeeze...
Good Luck Everyone
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Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddyhpd:
It's that time again.
*warning please if you do not believe in trends then this is not for you. If your testicles hurt often as you squeeze for your plays this is also not for you.*
Well in all honesty if you look at the match up this has over written all over it. Mid Tenn is up against FAU who has the 112th ranked run defense that allows just over 213 yds per game.
Mid Tenn comes in here with the 18th ranked passing game in the country. Their passing game can be a big factor in this game by having a decent rushing attack against this weak run d.
Mid Tenn has a weak pass defense that may also be exploited by FAU in this match up.
Of course a lot of incomplete passes will lead to a lot of clock stoppage and of course leads to more time left on the clock to score. I would prefer Mid Tenn to exploit their rush defense to kill the clock.
This is tough to call the under on due to all of the factors pointing towards the over.
That's why the warning if you are not into trends don't take the under stick with what your numbers tell you.
I'm not surprised that the total is not out yet I'm still waiting for mine.
If I had to choose a side I'm leaning on Mid Tenn. Fau is on their 3rd straight road game and it's during the early part of the week. Fau's qb has been struggling as of late and so is his wr's. Being on their 3rd straight road game cannot be a good spot for them.
Although it points towards the over I'm still going with the under if they open up the total line.
Good luck
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Well in all honesty if you look at the match up this has over written all over it. Mid Tenn is up against FAU who has the 112th ranked run defense that allows just over 213 yds per game.
Mid Tenn comes in here with the 18th ranked passing game in the country. Their passing game can be a big factor in this game by having a decent rushing attack against this weak run d.
Mid Tenn has a weak pass defense that may also be exploited by FAU in this match up.
Of course a lot of incomplete passes will lead to a lot of clock stoppage and of course leads to more time left on the clock to score. I would prefer Mid Tenn to exploit their rush defense to kill the clock.
This is tough to call the under on due to all of the factors pointing towards the over.
That's why the warning if you are not into trends don't take the under stick with what your numbers tell you.
I'm not surprised that the total is not out yet I'm still waiting for mine.
If I had to choose a side I'm leaning on Mid Tenn. Fau is on their 3rd straight road game and it's during the early part of the week. Fau's qb has been struggling as of late and so is his wr's. Being on their 3rd straight road game cannot be a good spot for them.
Although it points towards the over I'm still going with the under if they open up the total line.
Florida Atlantic is a covering machine within their own conference going 10-4 ats away and 9-6 ats as a dog which fits this situation. They are also 6-0 away off a non conference game playing against an opponent off a straight up loss.
However, they are playing a team with revenge on their mind and game six has been kind to them going 4-0 ats in these such games, and a 7-5 ats record as a favorite after suffering a double digit loss to boot.
Both teams have combined to go under the total against what has mostly been heavyweight opposition. FAU has had games against Texas, UAB, Michigan State and Minnesota (that's a killer schedule), and MTSU Troy, Maryland, Kentucky Arkansas State. Due to that most of their games have gone under as teams have stopped them from playing the free wheeling style that is the Sun Belt Conference. No such luck in this game as the linesmakers will more than likely give it a total line of 43.5 to 44, as their lines have averaged 41 over the last 3 contests with the over cashing the ticket 2 out of the last 3 gameswith the lone under being last year when an adjustment was made to the line making it 42.5. They combined for a score of 41.
So far I give the edge to Florida Atlantic as the moneylines are not spot on with the amount of points being offered for this game. 3 points should have a moneyline of -155 and the dog +135, but the line is -150 and +130 respectively creating a nice middle for the points. Because of the shortcoming I will probably take the dog and buy a hook making my spread +3.5 as I feel that this game will be a close one with both teams freeing themselves from their schedule induced harnesses and scoring points by the bushel.
Florida Atlantic +3.5
Florida Atlantic/MTSU over 43.5 (projected)
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Florida Atlantic is a covering machine within their own conference going 10-4 ats away and 9-6 ats as a dog which fits this situation. They are also 6-0 away off a non conference game playing against an opponent off a straight up loss.
However, they are playing a team with revenge on their mind and game six has been kind to them going 4-0 ats in these such games, and a 7-5 ats record as a favorite after suffering a double digit loss to boot.
Both teams have combined to go under the total against what has mostly been heavyweight opposition. FAU has had games against Texas, UAB, Michigan State and Minnesota (that's a killer schedule), and MTSU Troy, Maryland, Kentucky Arkansas State. Due to that most of their games have gone under as teams have stopped them from playing the free wheeling style that is the Sun Belt Conference. No such luck in this game as the linesmakers will more than likely give it a total line of 43.5 to 44, as their lines have averaged 41 over the last 3 contests with the over cashing the ticket 2 out of the last 3 gameswith the lone under being last year when an adjustment was made to the line making it 42.5. They combined for a score of 41.
So far I give the edge to Florida Atlantic as the moneylines are not spot on with the amount of points being offered for this game. 3 points should have a moneyline of -155 and the dog +135, but the line is -150 and +130 respectively creating a nice middle for the points. Because of the shortcoming I will probably take the dog and buy a hook making my spread +3.5 as I feel that this game will be a close one with both teams freeing themselves from their schedule induced harnesses and scoring points by the bushel.
One more reason to bet the UNDER... Once again, if you do not believe in Trends this is not for you.
Over / Under has a way of staying close to 50% range for the season and even week to week. This past weekend, starting from the 7:30pm game (Miss State vs LSU) thru to the last game (San Jose vs. Hawaii) the Over / Under is 10-1 (depends what book you use or how early or late you placed your best of course).
Like I said, the Over / Under have a way of staying near the 50% range.
With the latest run of 10-1 I am happy from a trend or technical point of view to take the Under in this game and the Unders for the rest of the weekday games this week.
Good Luck all..
I also like FAU...
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One more reason to bet the UNDER... Once again, if you do not believe in Trends this is not for you.
Over / Under has a way of staying close to 50% range for the season and even week to week. This past weekend, starting from the 7:30pm game (Miss State vs LSU) thru to the last game (San Jose vs. Hawaii) the Over / Under is 10-1 (depends what book you use or how early or late you placed your best of course).
Like I said, the Over / Under have a way of staying near the 50% range.
With the latest run of 10-1 I am happy from a trend or technical point of view to take the Under in this game and the Unders for the rest of the weekday games this week.
Here's some of the informtion that I've tracked: FLATL averages 16pts/game but give up 35pts/game. MTENN averages 17pts/game but only give up 24pts/game. These averages even hold true if you drop the high and lows from each team so I'm pretty comfortable with the performances so far. In each of their four previous matches the O/U has averaged 60.25 for FLATL and 47.5 for MTENN. I imagine that FLATL has had higher averages based upon the teams that they have played, specifically MCHST and TEX more than FLATL's ability to score.
If I was a betting man and unfortunately I am, I would envision an O/U around the 50-53 range based upon each team's inability to defend with any consistency.
While I PROBABLY won't put anything on this game if I had to AND the line was in the 51+ range would take the under for a small bet. As for a win/loss I would lay the points and take MTENN (small bet) nothing that would keep me from enjoying my beer while I watched the game.
Either way GL to everyone.
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NCAAF on a Tuesday. Gotta love it.
Here's some of the informtion that I've tracked: FLATL averages 16pts/game but give up 35pts/game. MTENN averages 17pts/game but only give up 24pts/game. These averages even hold true if you drop the high and lows from each team so I'm pretty comfortable with the performances so far. In each of their four previous matches the O/U has averaged 60.25 for FLATL and 47.5 for MTENN. I imagine that FLATL has had higher averages based upon the teams that they have played, specifically MCHST and TEX more than FLATL's ability to score.
If I was a betting man and unfortunately I am, I would envision an O/U around the 50-53 range based upon each team's inability to defend with any consistency.
While I PROBABLY won't put anything on this game if I had to AND the line was in the 51+ range would take the under for a small bet. As for a win/loss I would lay the points and take MTENN (small bet) nothing that would keep me from enjoying my beer while I watched the game.
Shepherd....nothing in the local media about Smith not being at QB. Schnellenberger has been talking him up in the local papers. One article had Mich State's coach calling Rusty Smith one of the best QB's in the country before they played them in a monsoon.
No question that waiting until game time could add a few points to the total. Waiting until gametime to make my play is a ritual on Tuesday night.
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Shepherd....nothing in the local media about Smith not being at QB. Schnellenberger has been talking him up in the local papers. One article had Mich State's coach calling Rusty Smith one of the best QB's in the country before they played them in a monsoon.
No question that waiting until game time could add a few points to the total. Waiting until gametime to make my play is a ritual on Tuesday night.
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tuesday night special!!!
Aloha 
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