New Mexico at Air Force (10/23/2008)

DATE & TIME: Thursday, October 23rd, 8:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Falcon Stadium (52,123) -- Colorado Springs, Colorado. Television: CBSCS. Home Record: New Mexico 3-2, Air Force 1-2. Away Record: New Mexico 1-2, Air Force 3-0. Neutral Record: New Mexico 0-0, Air Force 1-0. Conference Record: New Mexico 2-2, Air Force 3-1. Series Record: Air Force leads, 15-10.

GAME NOTES: Mountain West Conference foes will collide in Colorado Springs on Thursday, as Air Force plays host to New Mexico. The confidence level of the Lobos is undoubtedly sky high after a 70-7 romp over San Diego State last weekend. The victory was the third in the last four outings for New Mexico, which is 4-4 overall and 2-2 in conference play. Beginning this weekend, three of the final four regular season tilts for the Lobos will take place on the road, and they are 1-2 away from home thus far. As for Air Force, it has won its last two games to move to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in league play. The team was most recently in action last weekend when it posted a thrilling road victory over UNLV by a 29-28 final. With one more victory, the Falcons will be eligible for a bowl bid and remain in strong position to challenge for a MWC title. Air Force owns a 15-10 series advantage of New Mexico, but the Lobos recorded a thrilling 34-31 victory in last season's meeting.

Through eight games, New Mexico is averaging 25.9 ppg and 344.9 total ypg. The Lobos rely heavily on their ground attack, which accounts for 223.9 ypg and 19 of the 23 touchdowns scored by the offense thus far. Rodney Ferguson, the reigning Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Week, has rushed for 758 yards and 10 scores, while averaging 5.0 ypc. Donovan Porterie started the season under center for the Lobos, but he was lost in the fourth game with a torn ACL. Brad Gruner has taken over the reins and has completed only 48.8 percent of his passes for 457 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Ferguson torched San Diego State last weekend for 149 rushing yards and four scores. James Wright added 110 yards for the Lobos, who rushed for 419 yards in all. Gruner was an efficient 8-of-11 for 92 yards with one touchdown, and New Mexico finished the game with 565 total yards.

Opponents are scoring 23.8 ppg against New Mexico, which is yielding 345.1 total ypg. The Lobos have been tough against the run, limiting foes to 104.4 ypg and 3.2 yards per attempt. Also, a low total of five rushing touchdowns have been surrendered. On a down note however, the Lobos have been victimized for 19 passing scores and 240.8 ypg through the air. With 17 sacks and 17 takeaways, there has been a solid number of big plays made by the defense, but the play against the pass simply must improve. Glover Quin paces New Mexico with four interceptions, and Herbert Felder has 5.5 sacks to his credit. The Lobos were dominant defensively against San Diego State last weekend, as they limited the Aztecs to 227 total yards and forced them into three turnovers. Most importantly, New Mexico yielded only one touchdown in the clash.

The Falcons rank first in the MWC and third in the nation in rushing offense at 300.1 yards a game. Considering that they have only attempted 71 passes in seven outings, opponents know to expect a run on almost every play, but the execution of Air Force is stellar. It should also be pointed out that the Falcons have six passing scores and are averaging 15.8 yards per pass completion, so the passes that they have thrown have been timely and quite effective. Rather than rely on one player to carry the load, Air Force has five players with at least 229 rushing yards this season. Shea Smith and Tim Jefferson have both seen time under center this season, and both are capable of running the offense effectively. Against UNLV last weekend, Air Force racked up 508 total yards, including 346 rushing yards. However, it was the passing game that proved to be the biggest surprise, as Jefferson completed 6- of-7 attempts for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Todd Newell led the ground attack with 134 yards and a touchdown, while Jefferson rushed for 99 yards.

Air Force has been formidable defensively through these first seven games, as the team is only yielding 19.9 ppg and 304.7 total ypg. The Falcons have been solid against the run, permitting 3.6 ypc. With 22 sacks and 16 takeaways, there has certainly been an abundance of impact plays made. On a down note, opponents have been able to make good on 41 percent of their third down conversion attempts, an area in which Air Force can improve. Jake Paulson has already racked up 11 TFLs, including 8.5 sacks, but he left the last game with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable for this weekend's tilt. Air Force surrendered 404 total yards to UNLV last week, and the Rebels were able to score two rushing touchdowns and two passing scores. The Falcons failed to come up with a single takeaway and managed only one sack, but they still came away victorious.

Sure, the Lobos won by 63 points last weekend, but the competition will be much tougher this weekend. Expect Air Force to do just enough to win this game at home.

Predicted Outcome: Air Force 31, New Mexico 28