Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (09/30/2010)

I've said it many times before I normally stay away from Texas A&M games as their logo seems like a sign to me but not sure if to take it in a good or bad way...

ATM =  lose money go to atm machine or win lots of money like an atm machine

Leaning on OSU on this one but still thinking..

I'm an A&M grad and die hard fan, but trust me no bias exists when it comes to this football team.  I was going to be all over OSU, thinking it would be 5-7 points.  The low line makes it a no-play for me most likely.  The biggest problem with betting on A&M is not knowing which team will show up.  Over the past several years they will jump up and bite a team they have no business beating, and will follow it up with a blowout loss to an underdog. 

Last year A&M was humiliated by KSU, then turned around and whipped Texas Tech in Lubbock where they hadn't won in like a decade. 

OSU won't be looking ahead to ULL next week, but A&M may with Arky coming up.  If you put a gun to my head I would take OSU -3.

Thursday night game... Public is on OSU. Line opens @ 3.5, then drops to 3. Why is this line so low...? This is thier first conference game and from what I can tell... Both teams have played level talent (or lack thereof). A&M has outgained OSU vs their opponents by 72 yards. Where OSU seems to have the edge in offense, A&M seems to have the edge in defense.

I am a big Jerrod Johnson fan... I think he has the kind of talent that only comes along every once in awhile. If he becomes more consistant this team will find themselves in the top 25. If this was a home game for A&M I would be on them large. Playing in Stillwater, I am more hesitant to pull the trigger on a particular side, rather I am interested in the under. I like looking at the history of the lines as a part of my decision. Normally a small part of my decision. But, Thursday night's decision will almost solely be based on the line being set at 3 and the average O/U between these two teams since 2001 being 55.8. I feel like the number is set high given the scoring both teams have been able to produce this year vs. less talented squads.

Since 2002, this game has gone over 6 of 8 times. The only two times this game went under the mark the O/U was @ 62 & 64 (I see a trend @ 66). In fact, the only time this game has gone over with the O/U being set in the 60's was in 2008 and the line was 61. Each other game ranged from 46.5-58.5.

In summary, 66 seems too high with both teams finally being tested. I feel this figure is almost definately driven by the average points scored (OSU-57/A&M-41). As for the little pattern and history of these over/under lines... Call it OCD. But, history tends to repeat itself and I can't tell you how may games I've played on the line history and won. Probably a coincidence, but it gives me confidence going into Thursday and that's all that matters.

Sorry for the bore gents... My final play is UNDER 66 (Large) & a very small play on A&M +3.

Good Luck to All...

My bias was clouding my earlier post.AnM has the better D and I will be watching the line movement as we get closer to the game.getting the feel AnM will be the call here since the majority are on OSU and the spread hasnt moved.

Quote Originally Posted by oahuboy808:

hope we're on the same side more this week buddy!! BoL 

I hope so too my bruddah as you have been excellent on your picks my friend.

It should get better as there are more stats for me to look at...normally for me the first few weeks is a crappy   but once I can start to trim down to solid teams and totals I should be ok...not as great as your picks but I'll try

aloha!

I like your style bro  

I use trends as well but early in the season some of my trend teams have been bucking the trend...going to see if this trend can hold up.

Good luck

Good luck brother

Going with OSU to cover.  New OC seems to find a way to move the ball on everyone, and the crowd will be stoked.  Agree with those cautioning this as a medium bet.  If it weren't on Thursday nite, I would propbably pass on this one.

OSU is the play     2X bet for me.

I heard that dude generously gave OSU  $175 Million