Champions are born in May - Fantasy Football

I am itching to play fantasy football so bad! I want to unleash the Muscle Hamster on the world (Im a very bullish on Doug Martin's prospects). After perhaps AP and Arian Foster, he is valued on my board at #3.

Im still in the process of putting together a ranking system, and of course we still have more transactions, training camp, preason, and injury impacts to go over. Here is what I have right now.

Bullish

Reggie Bush - People are going to hype him up and rightfully so. He surely has value in PPR formats more so. People who have his services will come to hate Mikel LeShoure. Assuming he puts down the bong and stay out of trouble.

Mike Crabtree - He has blossomed into a playmaker and this is not a conservative offense. Two years ago this team couldn't put it into the endzone. They made David Akers into a beast. Simply because Alex Smith had limitations in the red zone. Insert Keapernick and that simply changes. Mike Crabtree has arrived. (Part of my reasoning is also the team is just so loaded. Boldin, Davis, the backfield, and some young speedsters all will command attention. But the repoire between QB and WR is sound)

Calvin Johnson - I do not see any kind of dropoff. A physical specimen that is in his prime. Should be shattering records. Grab him if you can.

Andrew Luck - If you're draft allows you to continously stash RBs and WRs and its the 7th round. I would not hesitate to pull the trigger. This kids a keeper.

Bearish

Seattle Seahawks - The entire team. There is just so much hype, then the heards start following. If I hear BUY i want to SELL. and in this case im not sold on these guys. I love me some beast mode and would not hesitate to grab him. But the likes of Wilson, Percival the Great, and the D/ST, I will just pass up.

`The Gronk - Clearly having him in your lineup is a huge advantage. But I am wondering if this guy can stay healthy. TE is rather weak so he may be worth a gamble considering whats out there. In his case its just the price is so high. A gamblin' man may take him in the 2nd round. At this point I have Jimmy Graham as well as teammate Aaron Hernendez ranked higher than the Gronk. Again, Id love to have him but itll have to be at the right price.

RG3 - Another guy who is going to get drafted high. He is as electric a player as it gets. But throughout his college and young NFL career he has been badly hurt. To me he is the new Mike Vick. Caveat Emptor.

The suckers in your league will print out the ESPN top 200 sometime in late August and bring it to the draft. A player that is serious about winning has already begun constructing strategies and targeting the right players even as early as the end of the previous year!

Biz!!!

I had Doug Martin in all leagues and got burned so bad (2nd place in all leagues). Do you know why?

Josh Fukking Freeman. This kid was a loser in college and is a loser in the NFL. Sounds like this bum will get another season to prove how worthless he is. This POS thinks he is Peyton Manning and fails to use his mobility, which is the reason he is on the field in the first place.

So is Doug Martin really worth a top five draft pick if bum-behind Josh Freeman is still at the helm. I don't think so. Teams know how to beat the Bucs. Just stack the box to limit Doug Martin. They know Freeman is not a threat. I don't see this changing. What a shame that Doug Martin has such a garbage-behind QB that can't help him for garbage.

I do believe the hype for the Seattle Seahawks. But their success doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy football value.

I will probably shy away from Wilson and Lynch because the conservative play-calling is too feast or famine with Pete Carol.

Thanks for getting in on the discussion. Its just so great to bounce ideas sometimes.

Ktrain, must totally agree that RB RB is the only way to go. I would not discount going RB-WR if one of those WR was Megatron or AJ Green. There are so few true #1 studs. And some of those like MJD or CJ havehuge ?

Take for example Alfred Morris. He was very solid and should be coveted. But in reality, how could you really trust Shanahan. No Bullshit. Is Roy Helu or Evan Royster still around?

Similar situations in Carolina, New England, and Green Bay. Which features two very promising rookies. Roll the dice on either too for sure. 

This could be a funky year where you see, and especially novice fantasy players, draft multiple QBs. I noticed this trend last season in my keagues. I played in 4 leagues, and won 3 titles in 2012! Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins (RG3 & Vick were toast), and Kaepernick (Eil all year long, was gifted CK7 going into finale, won on garbage time TD to Delanie Walker) were the QBs on those title teams. So someone who has Brees and now see Newton in round 5 may just pull the trigger. To me, QB is so deep that you can afford to wait. There is alot of depth. Andy Dalton could get you by. If I got Tony Romo after Ive filled my lineup and flex, then its bout to go down!!

Tampa is a team in transition. Coach has been talking about QB competition. Now, I wont throw in the towel just yet on Freeman, he is playing for a deal afterall. So this is the year that will define his legacy. They spent on VJax last year and have improved the defense. They are in a very tough division, but on the surface they do offer some good prospects. That offense will revolve around Martin.

Martin > Rice

Martin > McCoy

Martin > AP

Martin > Rodgers/Brady/Brees

Martin > Lynch

Lamar Miller is a guy I would roll the dice on in the 3rd or 4th round.

I was fuckin wasted when I wrote that but lets make a correction

Martin < AP

Does anyone wager on fantasy props? Some books offer just a line on a player or they will have a a matchup and create a spread. Most of them use ESPN Standard format. I has some success on that last year. Although Ive seen the books add extra vig on these wagers (-115 or higher sometimes).

I like the Chiefs prospects as well. Considering Ried's history  he made studs out of Westbrook and Shady, so I think his offense is very friendly to the RB. Naturally, Chuck should flourish in this system and if Im picking 8-10 in a league and he is still available, then I would surely grab him.

What I really like to do when I make my rankings is to not only simply rank the players 1-150, but to break the rankings down further my charting the player as a must draft (green), Good player but with caution (Yellow) and Do not draft (red). On the spreadsheet it breaks down by round with the 3 columns. Id be happy to share last years sheet with anyone who wants to see the format. I wont have this years finished for quite some time but ehen available Id be happy to share.

For example my 1st round may look something like this

Green                    Yellow                             Red

1. AP                    5. Ray Rice                   10. Shady McCoy

2. Foster               6. Beast Mode

3. Martin               7. Chuck

4. Megatron           8. Trent Richardson

                            9. CJ Spiller    

 

It really starts to get interesting as the draft goes on. Usually, Peyton Hillis, Matt Forte, and Run DMC make it into the red column. It doesnt necessarily mean I wont draft, but it reminds me that these players are put into that category for a reason.

Terrible news regarding Mike Crabtree. He was destined to have a big season. Well see how quickly he can recover. You're either AP or you're Derrick Rose in that regard. Crabs has been banged up to start out his career and he may be just one of those guys.

Bullish

Julio Jones, Aaron Hernendez, Danny Amendola (PPR), Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson (for the right price)

Bearish

Dwyane Bowe, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings,

Enigma

Steve Smith - This guy is special. One of those greats who falls under the radar in the scheme of things. With sCam Newton at the helm and the team making strides, he is their best weapon. Only 4 TDs and 5 100yard games. You have to wonder if he has lost a step. People may have thought the same thing with Reggie Wayne last season, and look how that turned out. For me he would make a great WR4 at this point. Not good enough for the flex but can be servicable when called upon. He needs to make the most of his 8 targets a game. Much to ask a dinosaur in this league?

Biz,

Time will tell with Crab. I don't think he goes the way of D Rose, especially given the nature of football contracts vs hoops contracts. But you never know when it comes to a guys heart and body recovery.

I'm extremely bullish on T.Y. "don't call me TY" Hilton this year. Not so much because I think he has a monster year but because if where he will most likely go. I think he gets similar number to Wayne and might even exceed them, but he will be there about two round later. I also don't think the Colts go .500 this year (future season win total wager for me). Last year they went 11-5 with a negative point differential and won something like 7 games by a TD Or less. Compare that to the Lions (disclaimer: I am a Lions fan) who went 4-12 with a -65 point differential last season. I could definitely see a regression toward .500 for both teams this season. Lions season win total is 7 1/2 and Colts is 8 1/2. Wouldn't shock me at all if the Colts go .500 this year.

Obviously all thins are comparative to the price you're willing to pay or where guys are available to be drafted as far as fantasy goes.

It wouldn't be wise to Run DMC in round 2 of a 12 team league. However in a few mocks I have seen him go in the late 3rd round. Now obviously mocks should be taken with a grain of salt as far as legitimacy goes. People are trying different strategies from different draft positions, as should you.

However it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that something unusual should happen and you should aleys be prepared for it. There is always some guy that values a player on his favorite team too much and techies for him. I did a 12 team mock earlier in which, drafting from the 2 spot (random selection) I was able to get Foster, then Drew Brees (with Brady still on the board) and them Jimmy Graham in round 3.

Now I can't see that EVER happening in a league with money involved but you never know when top 2 guys at 3 different positions may fall in your lap.

I have a question for you gentlemen that pertains specifically to my 16 team league. Our league allows trading of draft positioning, it's a non keeper so your only trading draft slots for all rounds or any specific rounds. Now I never cared about this much in the past because I never realized any huge advantage to moving up or down within the 16 slots before this year. However I definitely realize an advantage to getting a solid RB1 this year. I'm wondering of it is worth giving up a 3rd or 4th this year if I were to land in the last 6 of the first round (missing out on the top 10 RB's theoretically) to move up.

Now keep in mind that I get to market this trade as well so I can go to each guy ahead of me (we do a lottery style draw a week before the draft for positioning to allow for time to move any picks) and offer different deals to each. So while the 8th pick may. Not like my deal to swap first and seconds for my third pick outright, the sixth positioned guyay be willing to swap for my fourth round pick.

What would e you strategy on both sides of this offer i.e. if I were in the top 10 and someone made this offer to me as well?

I should add that I am oddly buillish in MJD despite never being huge on him in the past. Think late 20's is too low for him right now. Also, I think Jay Cutler is going to low as well. He is available after almost every notable QB that starts in the NFL and is fantasy relevant.

I'm not a Cutler fan but if he is there round 9 or 10 of a 12 team league, and he usually is in most mocks I have done, then he is worth the pick even if he starts as the season as your back up. That bears offense does have some weapons and now they have an offensive minded head coach. In round 9 or 10 you're beginning to take guys for upside anyways and missing on a pick there isn't killing your season.

Hi, very interesting thread. Today I did some mock drafts and an interesting situation happen, I would like to know what do you think about it, but I don't wanna steal your thread.

Go ahead Conde, I would like this thread to be an open discussion where we can bounce ideas off one another. Obviously, people who are talking about fantasy at this time of year are serious about winning,

Ive always enjoyed trading draft picks and slots Ktrain. You are seeking to move up into a spot where you can get a #1 RB. In a year where the evolotion of the NFL's use of RBs has limited the pool of quality backs. I would only trade to move up if the net was one of my target true #1 backs.

Because despite their high ranking, some of those top backs come with some serious question marks.

After the talent of AP, Foster, Martin, and Beast Mode there is a level of uncertainty.

Even with Beast Mode. Robert Turbin should see some more carries this season. However, I am beginning to get bullish on Beast Mode . He has been consistant, durable, and a dude who just really enjoys playing the game.

Ray Rice - He's 5 years deep into his career and only once carried the ball over 300 times . He is a PPR stud and hasnt shown any sign of wear and tear. But something happened late last year. A stone in the shoe if you will. Bernard Pierce began getting some touches and did some good things with the rock. In the final 6 games including playoffs he carried the ball nealry 13 times a game. This team moved on from Jamal Lewis with ease. And money may become an issue down the line. Just something to monitor.

Shady McCoy - New coach could disrupt some things or he could take this guy into the next stratosphere. Not sold on Bryce Brown's presence despite his stud performance to end the season. This guy is not moving up my chart.

MJD is a true boom or bust pick. The type of pick that could define your season. If you're picking #1 and it gets back to you at the end of round 2 and into round 3. How could you not? Because last year, this is where I rolled the dice on AP. Schemes have changed in Jacksonville and the suporting cast looks uninspiring. The bad QB situation is only going to have defenses targetting MJD as usual. Somehow he is still able to beat get his. For the right price I have no reservations at rolling the dice. At this point Id almost rather have MJD than CJ.

Quarterbacks are truely a dime a dozen. I do not care who is QB on my team. To me its not worth taking Drew Brees when I can have AJ Green or Trent Richardson when later on the flip side I can choose among Matt Ryan or Tony Romo and not have to decide between RBs such as Shonn Greene, Rashard Mendenhall or Daniel Thomas. Really have nothing on Cutler hes not really on my radar. I expect with a new regime and talent from last years addition of Alshon Jeffery, Cutler could see his best season. But hes Jay Cutler.

One thing that has been working on many of my championship teams over the last few years was a steady D, and on several of those teams, multiple defenses. Traditionally I do not endorse reaching for defenses but when it comes to a unit and a team that you feel strong about then why not? The panic that follows is pretty funny too. Once the first defense goes then sometimes you see a run immediately follow, possibly even opening up the chance for the player you might have had slotted earlier falling into your lap a round later. And now you have a good unit.

For me the 49ers and Texans are about the only units worth grabbing. Theres other teams that offer promise, but those two are the premier.

 

Magazines should be out soon. Theres a couple out already. Anyone use a particular copy? Theyre a great toilet read this time of year.

This Aaron Hernendez saga has really put a damper on my TE strategy. Was going to gamble in my PPR league and take him early. Now need to see how this plays out. Vernon Davis is a guy who really should shine this season. He's been held back because quite frankly, Alex Smith is not a very good NFL QB. The people of Kansas City will soon figure this out. Andy Reid is a good coach though, he gets alot out of his QB so maybe he wont have such a terrible year.

Hearing bits and pieces bout RB situations. Looks like Mendenhall has the edge in Arizona.

Denard Robinson could be the next Devin Hester. Not sure if thats relevant or not.

I just keep remaining so high on the Lions. Would take whatever I could get from that table. Pettigrew in a PPR league is not ideal, but I could live with that. Megatron will continue his assault with mini Marino tossing him the rock.

 

i picked up Espn Fantasy Football 2013 with Kaepernick on the cover last week, they had a bunch there but i like the layout and spread of Espn's.  Their all similiar anyway..

Annual visit to the soon to be out of business Barned and Noble tomorow. Might grab 2. I got hustled by ESPN joined the Insider on a teaser rate but they never sent over the mags.

Lets get a round table of people together to discuss garbage. I hate when my friends/fantasy competitors ask me stuff like "What you think about Dez Bryant." Some of them could sense deception when I tell them the opposite of what I beleive. So Im hoping we can get some dialouge. Ktrain is a solid analyst.

I am veery bullish on Miami Dolphins. Second year of the offense and new wrinkes added. Maybe the Jake Long departure was a good thing while the addition of Wallace a much needed positive. My eye is on the backfield. Lamar Miller could be the next big thing.

Andrew Luck is now a target in the event where I dont take a QB in the first 8 rounds. He should progress further and assault the record books. He will be better than Aaron Rodgers.

Bit premature to include Luck in the same group as rodgers, let me see him win a few Playoff Games first.

I like to take bold opinions time to time. I thought Greg Oden would be better than Durant. Clearly I was wrong. To me there has not been a more NFL ready QB to come out since Peyton Manning than Andrew Luck. He showed a lot during his rookie season. At this point he should only grow. The team has done a good job of surrounding him with talent. Yes, of course its premature to compare him to Arod. But being a fan, its fun to debate.

Case study

Say that you are picking 10th in a 10 man league

Arod is top rated QB. Projected to score 352 points (ESPN). Ranked 12th overall. That's about 20.7 PPG

Andrew Luck 280. 16.5 PPG. Ranked 76. 7th rounder.

Difference of 4.2 Points per game

In this example, I will select Shady McCoy. Projected 200 points. 11.76 PPG.

In the 7th and 8th rounds. The pickings begin to get slim. Ill go with  BJGE at 133 points. 7.82 ppg

3.94 Difference

This example shows that drafting Aaron Rodgers has a .3 PPG positive impact to your team. But looking beyond just these numbers, you have to consider some things. There is a huge difference in fantasy talent. Picking 10th , and solely basing this on ESPN's rankings you could get Trent Rich/Megatron/Rodgers/McCoy. Those are going to be studs in your lineup. Despite any matchup, they are playing. But in the 7th and 8th rounds you have so much uncertainty especially at the skill positions Torrey Smith/Mendenhall/The Firm/Alexander....

Those QB who are rated lower could still potentially get you big production. The skill players, especially established veterans who may have already hit their ceilings (DeSean Jackson) remain risky ventures, especially when you count on them being regular starters.

I too started playing fantasy late. My first year was 2005. Before that I played in Salary Cap leagues. In 2008, I won my first title. That sparked a run of 3 straight in that league. Then I began playing in more leagues. Averaging about 3, sometimes 4 per year. Each and every year I brought home a championship.

The same strategy. Stockpile as many studs and neglect the QB position. In a league that spreads the ball around and moving to an air it out mentality, the QB spot has just so many viable options. Remember, in a 10 man league you can only start 1 QB. So that's 10 players. There are IMO, nearly 20 QBs (more like 16 or 17) that are serviceable. And all are usually available. Even more become available after the bye weeks.

On the flip side, there are 20 RBs starting every week. More if its a flex league. The drop from the #1 QB to the #11 is 72 pts. The same drop for RBs is 87 pts. That's a significant drop. This strategy does not work for everyone. Don't get me wrong I would love to have Rodgers/Brees/Brady as my QB, but for me Ive been successful at stockpiling rather than just taking what the draft gives me.

Read some tidbit about the Falcons the other day. Man, on paper they look stacked. Anyway, this article suggested that Julio is going to get even more looks this year. That's a guy im very bullish on. He is in the right system, has an almost elite QB, and most of all has proven he can play in this league.

Im in the process of ranking my WRs and he should be a top 3.

Just wanted to add that we haven't even hit July yet and look at the landscape regarding some highly touted players;

Crabtree & Hernandez

Virtually both are done. Crabs should recover and make a push later in the season, but not draft able unless you want to stash him on your IR.

Hernandez, well what could you say. He was a top 3 TE. And now vanished. This could have a domino affect and drive the price of Jimmy Graham up even further. Because after Jimmy and Gronk, you start to roll the dice a bit. Witten is still a stud. Im not sure Antonio Gates is still alive. Can Gonzo remain at the top? Will Vernon Davis emerge? Is Kyle Rudolph ready to take the next step? Dennis Pitta could be someone to watch.

I like Bush in Detroit but sadly all the homers here (I live in Detroit) will take him waaaaaaay too early just because he is a Lion.

If you like a certain guy, then its never too early. I did the same thing before Arian Foster broke out a few years back. It paid off.

Detroit has some very interesting fantasy prospects. Megatron is a cut above the rest and just survived the Madden curse. Secondly, The Staffordshire Terrier benefits from not only CJ's presence, but the offense does like to air it out.

Now we get to Reggie Bush. A guy that I'm very bullish on as well. Heres what the magazine says of the #18 ranked RB.

BOOM: Free agency takes the former Heisman winner to Detroit, where his pass-catching skills will no doubt be appreciated by QB Stafford. Its not entirely clear how the Lions plan to use their new toy, but the Dolphins gave Bush a higher volume of annual carries during his two years in Miami than he'd ever gotten during 5 years in New Orleans, and he proved himself to be a productive runner. Bush fell just short of the 1000 yard rushing mark last season, but her topped it in 2011 by closing the year with four straight 100 yard rushing games (including 203 vs. Buffalo) Should the Lions opt to use him as more of a pass catcher the way the Saints did, well, Bush had 88 and 73 catch seasons in New Orleans.

BUST A prolific TD man in college, Bush hasn't hit double digits in touchdowns in any of his seven NFL season. Injuries have been an issue - only twice in his career has he played in al 16 regular season games. The Lions still have Mikel LeShoure and Jouque Bell on the roster and there's been a remote possibility that Jahvid Best might overcome his concussion problem to become a factor in the backfield. So its possible that Bush end up relegated to third down and, perhaps, punt return duties.

BOTTOM LINE - Pay attention to clues about how the Lions plan to use Bush and adjust his position on your draft board accordingly. But it seems  to pencil him in for somewhere between 1000-1300 yards from scrimmage and about seven TDs.

Sounds like at the time of print, these authors do not know much about the Lions backfield. I would not feel comfortable with Bush as my #2 RB. He's a good #3 RB and possible flex. A slight increase in PPR leagues.

Must say that the ProFootBall weekly magazine is very very informative. Ive read about half , mostly on WR's TE's and QBs. Its opened my eye on some things.

One thing specifically is if a WR has had an unusual amount of big plays (characterized as receptions over 20+ yards). You really then have to dig deeper. Sometimes its an anomaly and the player will revert to the mean. So if you're looking at a 4 year or more veteran and last season he just blew up and it was attributed to him having 30 of these big plays. Maybe, his stats are inflated. Can he really continue to produce these big numbers?

One thing Im sure on. Brandon Marshall is a beast as long as Jay Cutler is his QB. That's a fact. Coaching does not matter, the ball is going to Marshall. His price tag is expensive but if he falls to you in the early 3rd. Make your move!

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham is worth a late #2 pick. He will double the production of most TE's and is a freakish athlete in a system that shows no signs of slowing down and with its bad defense will be airing it more than ever.

After that, Gronk is the next guy who is equally talented and is a beast. But his injury concerns are really troubling. Followed closely by Witten and Gonzo, who are coming off monster years. It will be difficult for those two to continue producing like they did, they will be drafted higher because of this. Let your draft dictate if you should grab either, don't reach.

Beyond that, it does not matter who you have. The next 12 guys or so are virtually the same.

Which rings me to Vernon Davis.

Here is a guy who has had a crutch hi entire career. That crutch was Alex Smith. Who was an average NFL QB. There were some flashes, most notably in the playoff game vs. the Saints two years ago. But Davis, despite his freakish attributes, really has not excelled and reached an elite level. He always seems to be drafted too high for the production he delivers.

This year he has a real NFL QB, with a really good arm. The team is missing their best WR. This is the year he should excel. Everything is set and primed for a big season. He should get a nice chunk of balls thrown his way. My top target for the TE position.