Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
BB - not going to play monday morning QB here - but emotions and motivations are the hardest thing to predict IMO. You can make an argument for any team in any situation. Bounce back? Or down and out?
The "human factor" as you put it is totally intangible most of the time, and therefore way down on my list of things to consider when making a bet.
You say that the Germany loss took something out of them, but what we saw today was a disciplined and organized and well drilled team executing a plan - void of the emotion you thought they would carry. I understand your narrative, but emotions are just too unpredictable IMO.
But to each his own.
Vanz, thank you for responding. I was at work (I teach summer
school) so did not see the games until later. I think you know that I am
in no way, shape, or form a "hater," as someone may have claimed I was?
I respect you and appreciate the analysis you offer everyone on this
forum. For anyone who is a decent, compassionate person, it takes guts
to give people gambling advice. In fact, I often feel so awful for
giving out a losing pick that I will not hedge my bet, even when
presented with the opportunity, choosing instead to go down with the
people who trusted me with their money. I have done it many times.
Perhaps it was stupid, but I also hope that it was also somehow admirable.
Predicting
human behavior is certainly a tricky business, as we saw today. The
pressure of a deciding, winner-take-all-game finally forced Sweden to
come out of its shell (this was certainly not the timid team we saw
against Germany, hanging on for a tie by parking the car, even though
they had a man advantage). They played like a pack of wolves, chasing
their prey all over the field. And Germany played like a team (at least
for the first 50 minutes) that had already gone through or qualified. In
other words, it was they who had the letdown, after that draining win
against Sweden, thinking, perhaps, that the worst was behind them. Of
course you are right in that we never know exactly how a team will react
to a loss or a win or a particular situation but that does not mean
that it can't be done and/or there are no discernible psychological
patterns. Hence the famous gambling terms and scenarios: "revenge game,"
"letdown spot," "star player out," etc, etc.
I
certainly can't say that I have made a living doing this as you have.
But for two years I did win enough to pay my bills, buy groceries for
myself and my family, etc...And I did it by betting on psychological
angles for the most part (though there were obviously other factors as
well). I resorted to capping and betting by using psychological angles
and situations because I needed an edge. I do not have elaborate
mathematical algorithms or data bases, nor can I dissect sports in terms
of matchups, strategy, game plans, etc the way you can. I am a
humanities guy (spending my days and nights reading, writing and
thinking about human nature) who also loves sports. So I tried to
combine my two passions by trying to predict the outcome of
games/matches based on how human beings might react to a particular
situation. Does it always work? Of course not. But if I did not win more
often than I lost I would not be on here giving gambling advice to
anybody.
Congrats on the Sweden win! And I love the Columbia
pick. I am very tempted to tail you but I cashed out today because this
is too fun and I have a dissertation to finish. Best of luck as always.
van
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