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World Cup 2018

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Legend
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Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 39197
Posted: #376
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Anyone know what happened with James Rodriguez?

According to media he re-aggravated his already injured calf...not sure why else they would have pulled him off honestly 
 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59905
Posted: #377
OVERALL RECORD:   Up 41.75  Down 35.46

Future Bets:
Up 3.17  Down 1.7
Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit) - LOSS
Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units) - LOSS
Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units) - LOSS
Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48) - WIN
Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39) - WIN
Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3) - WIN
Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5) - WIN
Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5) - WIN
Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5) - PUSH
Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6) - LOSS
Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Game Bets: (truncated because covers wont let me post full list)
Current Record - UP   38.58  Down 33.76
41.  Sweden +225 vs Mexico (2 units to win 4.5) - WIN
42.  Germany vs S Korea - no bet 
43.  Serbia +1 +100 vs Brazil (1 unit to win 1), Serbia to win +650 (.2 to win 1.3) - LOSS
44.  CR / Switz under 2, and 2.5 +100 (1 unit to win 1), CR to win +650 (.2 to win 1.3) - LOSS
45.   Colombia -115 vs Senegal (4.1 to win 3.5) - WIN
46.  Poland PK +100 vs Japan (1.5 units to win 1.5) - WIN

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Captain
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Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 7941
Posted: #378

Van, we were lucky indeed with Colombia today. 

They are such a disorganized mess without a healthy James.  He clearly pulls the strings in the midfield to produce good scoring opportunities.  Without him, they seemed to struggle with crisp passes that could lead to any scoring opportunities.  I don't even think I heard Falcao's name mentioned twice..   It took a corner kick to win it for them, but we will take it ..    However, this team seems done going forward  w/o a healthy James.


 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59905
Posted: #379
Teams are out....

Pickford, Rose, Stones, Cahill, Jones, Delph, Alexander Arnold, Dier, Loftus Cheek, Vardy, Rashford

Courtois, Vermaelen, Boyata, Dendoncker, Fellaini, T Hazard, Tielmans, Dembele, Chadli, Januzaj, Batshuayi

THIS IS AN EXHIBITION
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Captain
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Posts: 7941
Posted: #380
And great job on your record thus far.  It's encouraging to be up,  considering how difficult this tournament has been to this point.
 
Covers Referee
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Joined: Feb, 2004
Posts: 15596
Posted: #381
It’s funny to see that you’re up and doing pretty good, and you’ve posted that it hasn’t felt like you had a great World Cup so far. How do you like four of my south American teams in the Sweet 16? I’m pretty happy about that.

The way I see it, Japan is the worst of the teams left so if I am Belgium or England I go for the win without any reservations whatsoever. They would have to play Brazil at some point, or somebody would knock them off. On the other side I think Columbia is a very dangerous team and played much better than their record indicates.
 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59905
Posted: #382
If you bet on this England / Belgium game....

GL!!

My picks:

47.  England vs Belgium - no bet
48.  Panama vs Tunisia over 2.5 +104 (1 unit to win 1.04) - going to stick with the trend here of meaningless group games going over - 8 of the last 9 have had 3 goals or more....

GL
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Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59905
Posted: #383
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Van, we were lucky indeed with Colombia today. 

They are such a disorganized mess without a healthy James.  He clearly pulls the strings in the midfield to produce good scoring opportunities.  Without him, they seemed to struggle with crisp passes that could lead to any scoring opportunities.  I don't even think I heard Falcao's name mentioned twice..   It took a corner kick to win it for them, but we will take it ..    However, this team seems done going forward  w/o a healthy James.



I am very interested to see what happens with him.  He is obviously a major factor in how far Colombia can go.  Interestingly enough - if they play Belgium - it might favor Colombia.  Pretty sure we saw today that they will have trouble against a packed in defensive minded side - but in a match against Belgium - they might be able to enjoy counterattacking and see some space that they didnt get today (but did against Poland).

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Legend
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Posts: 59905
Posted: #384
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

It’s funny to see that you’re up and doing pretty good, and you’ve posted that it hasn’t felt like you had a great World Cup so far. How do you like four of my south American teams in the Sweet 16? I’m pretty happy about that.

The way I see it, Japan is the worst of the teams left so if I am Belgium or England I go for the win without any reservations whatsoever. They would have to play Brazil at some point, or somebody would knock them off. On the other side I think Columbia is a very dangerous team and played much better than their record indicates.

Truth be told....  Because I try to post early, and because of line moves - my record is much better if you bet closer to gametime than it is posted here.   A few of the "2 and 2.5" unders landed on 2, and the line at kickoff was 2.5 even.   Sweden was closer to +260 yesterday.  I can't remember a match where my posted line wasn't worse than what you could get closer to match kickoff - but it goes that way sometimes - I would rather win more real cash than covers record.

Yeah - pretty sure there are 10 European sides, 4 S American, Mexico and Japan.  I actually thought Peru and Senegal are the two sides going out that deserved more - that would have made 5 SA sides to go through.  

SA vs Europe so far is a straight up 3 wins for each side, with 2 draws.

But now the going gets tough.  

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Veteran
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Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 1326
Posted: #385
what a shame - this could be one of the best qualifying matches if not best match of the tourney - like spain and portugal.  instead, who knows what we get.  if they tie, it will come down to yellows and belguim has 1 more currently.  only possible play is the under but who really knows until it starts
 
Veteran
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Posts: 3778
Posted: #386

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you bet on this England / Belgium game....GL!!My picks:47.  England vs Belgium - no bet48.  Panama vs Tunisia over 2.5 +104 (1 unit to win 1.04) - going to stick with the trend here of meaningless group games going over - 8 of the last 9 have had 3 goals or more....GL
thanks for your efforts on this forum, mr vanzack. I very much appreciate your taking the time to share your knowledge and expertise. Ben away since the tournament began, won 3 small plays in openers - Iceland to score a goal, Denmark, and Croatia- . Looking forward to joining you for the knockout stage. 

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1475
Posted: #387

VANZACK you killem em bro!!

 

I tailed your over Tunisia/Panama OVER pick an_worshipgood call

 
Prospect
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Joined: May, 2013
Posts: 467
Posted: #388

Wanted to pop in here and say kudos to your analysis and record.  Nice to find someone on this site that is thoughtful.  I had a very similar read on the Colombia - Senegal match and still cannot believe the final scoreline and the play in general.  I thought that game was going to be a cracker and well, it wasn't. Unfortunately and stupidly, I had the over every which way in that game and now must bow out.  The Serbia and Mexico games followed by today, just destroyed my bankroll.  No discipline but essentially needed a goal from Mexico, Senegal, or Serbia and I'd still be alive but alas, they all got blanked.  (I'm a huge fan of BTTS prop).  Anywho, BOL to ya'll!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 98
Posted: #389
thanks for the picks

job well done
 
Legend
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Posts: 59905
Posted: #390

Batshuayi celebrating the Belgium goal....

https://streamable.com/9qad1

 

an_roll_laugh

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Legend
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Posted: #391

Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you bet on this England / Belgium game....GL!!My picks:47.  England vs Belgium - no bet48.  Panama vs Tunisia over 2.5 +104 (1 unit to win 1.04) - going to stick with the trend here of meaningless group games going over - 8 of the last 9 have had 3 goals or more....GL
thanks for your efforts on this forum, mr vanzack. I very much appreciate your taking the time to share your knowledge and expertise. Ben away since the tournament began, won 3 small plays in openers - Iceland to score a goal, Denmark, and Croatia- . Looking forward to joining you for the knockout stage.

Hey Taurus - good to see you around.

GL

an_cheers

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Legend
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Posts: 59905
Posted: #392

Quote Originally Posted by gottabedegen:

Wanted to pop in here and say kudos to your analysis and record.  Nice to find someone on this site that is thoughtful.  I had a very similar read on the Colombia - Senegal match and still cannot believe the final scoreline and the play in general.  I thought that game was going to be a cracker and well, it wasn't. Unfortunately and stupidly, I had the over every which way in that game and now must bow out.  The Serbia and Mexico games followed by today, just destroyed my bankroll.  No discipline but essentially needed a goal from Mexico, Senegal, or Serbia and I'd still be alive but alas, they all got blanked.  (I'm a huge fan of BTTS prop).  Anywho, BOL to ya'll!

Better luck to you.  Good games coming up!

Ally, Sixgod - an_cheers

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Covers Referee
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Joined: Feb, 2004
Posts: 15596
Posted: #393
Right off the top of your head:

Best play of sweet 16 games?
Best value play of sweet 16 games?
Most likely upset of sweet 16 games?

I say Belgium
Uruguay 
Columbia 



 
Legend
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Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 39197
Posted: #394
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Right off the top of your head:

Best play of sweet 16 games?
Best value play of sweet 16 games?
Most likely upset of sweet 16 games?

I say Belgium
Uruguay 
Columbia 




I know the question was not posed to me but I couldn't agree more with all 3 of the above selections fitting each criteria
 
Covers Referee
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Posts: 15596
Posted: #395
Thanks buddy. Really was a question for anyone. Let's get this. 
 
MVP
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Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 15032
Posted: #396
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I feel exactly what you are saying.  There are times I am more worried about my stupid covers pick losing than when I am personally losing thousands.  So I get it - and TBH - that is a lot of the reason I don't post.  It is a no win situation most of the time.

My post to you earlier was not to knock your method in any way.  I have always been a whatever works type of person when it comes to gambling.  And if it has been working for you - keep at it.

GL with the dissertation.  Much more important than this sh*t.



Agreed on what you said above. That is exactly how I feel when I post and lose:)

Great job today. But I would not call the Columbia win lucky because you were unlucky to have Rodriguez go down early in the match. With him in there, I think Columbia would have gotten that goal earlier. I hope you kill it going forward!

For fun, here is who I see going through and why:

Spain: lots of pressure on them an new coach to get out of group play, that pressure is now off.

Croatia: just a solid team all around.

Switzerland: Swedes must be running out of gas, after the roller coaster ride they have had in group play.

Columbia: bad karma for England trying to win second place to get the Columbia matchup (also, star player out theory, if Rodriguez does not play).

Uruguay: Ronaldo can't keep carrying his team against superior opponents, can he?

Tina: On paper, it is all France but Tina is the team coming into the game with momentum and the belief that comes with overcoming adversity, beating the odds, and having a guy like Messi on your side, while France comes in as the lazy, fat favorite that coasted through group play and mailed in their final game.
 
Brazil: classic big brother vs little brother dynamic. Mexico is an inferior version of Brazil.
 
Belgium: Their opponent is Japan:)

Good luck!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2017
Posts: 188
Posted: #397

Spain -1 is square but it has to be the best bet of the 16. 

How is Russia going to win? They’re awful. 

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 2349
Posted: #398
Great job Van, it's damned hard to beat the books and you have done it repeatedly. My opinions are worse than worthless but another guy Diamondjack over at the soccer forum is kicking behind just like you are and has done it for multiple world cups. Assessment of a good capper requires a very very large sample size to be accurate and you two have done it. Congrats. 

Diamondjack likes France at +145 to beat Argentina. His reasoning is as follows.

Argentina & Messi are getting too much love from the books.They were lucky to get to this point after a really bad group stage performance. France are not a Nigeria or Iceland they are France who are arguably better than Croatia and we know how that ended up for the south Americans. France are well rested, stacked at all positions not just forwards like Argentina. Argentina could not cope with the midfield strength of Croatia & France have been too cautious having teams defend against them. Argentina unlike their great teams of the past cant defend which should play into the hands of the French.


 everybody and get those greedy stinkin books
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2349
Posted: #399
Note the best cappers don't just make their picks, they articulately explain their picks and by doing so educate the rest of us gambling suckers. 

again and  Van
 
 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59905
Posted: #400
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Right off the top of your head:

Best play of sweet 16 games?
Best value play of sweet 16 games?
Most likely upset of sweet 16 games?

I say Belgium
Uruguay 
Columbia 




Belgium (I assume this means no odds involved)
Denmark
Sweden
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