Posted:
#576
We had Uruguay 2-1 over Portugal, I don’t quite understand your point
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World Cup 2018
Posted:
#578
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Brazil / Belgium
Good stuff, maximum depth; World Cup handicappingBrazil / Belgium
Getting this one up first as it is the game of the first two that I feel strongest about. I have been waiting for this exact spot since the tournament began, and even wrote about it in the first pages of this thread.
Belgium's coach is Roberto Martinez. I remember watching this guy coach Wigan Athletic in the EPL years ago seeing him play a unique style for the EPL - a 3-4-3 - or a 5-3-2 - the important part being that he played with 3 center backs and 2 "wingbacks". Basically nobody else in the EPL was using this at the time - and Wigan is a low budget club that was seeing success using it - even winning the FA Cup which is basically a minor miracle.
The premise of the wingbacks are that they are the fittest guys on the team, roaming up and down the pitch - serving as both offensive wingers and defenders. Used properly, it gives you width in attack and a very fortified defense against a slow buildup.
The problem it presents is the space left in behind the wingbacks when they go up in to attack - leaving a natural void in space in behind them if the ball gets stolen and a counter-attack ensues. In this case, speedy opposition can see lots of joy attacking those spaces on the flanks while the wingback is sprinting to get back in to position - and often you are only left with 3 to defend and outside in counter attack.
Brazil are the perfect team - the team that is best suited in this tournament - to exploit this style. You should see Neymar and Willian (or Douglas Costa if he is fit) attacking these spaces with success all game - attacking from the outside in.
Japan were lucky to be in the game with Belgium - played 10 times Belgium wins almost 10 out of 10 - Japan had clinical finishing on their two chances with a Belgium side fully exploited. Watch this video of the first goal and you will see exactly what I am describing so far - at the 7 second mark of the video freeze it. Japan has just picked up a turnover and is counterattacking. Notice the wingbacks not even in the picture - and 3 Belgian CBs left to deal with attacking Japanese. It is all over a mere 6 seconds later, and if you freeze it when the shot is taken, you only see 3 Belgians even in frame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJeJuc27ggE
The second Japanese goal is just unbelievable finishing - but if you freeze the video at the 26 second mark when he is shooting the ball - you can see just how deep the Belgian back 5 were sitting. But this is how Belgium want to be in formation against a built up attack.
Marcelo and Douglas Costa are back in training and will be gametime decisions - and I wish I knew if Marcelo was able to play or not - but in the end - I think Brazil handles Belgium with relative ease either way.
Brazil - the team everyone thinks of when someone mentions flair or offensive skill - is the best defensive team in the tournament. As I stated before, defensive teams win the WC - and Brazil has given up 1 goal in their 4 games and that was a controversial corner kick.
A couple of things that concern me are Casemiro's suspension - as he is probably the best holding midfielder in the tournament - but I have enough faith in Paulinho to come in and cover the role. I am always concerned about the lack of real size in the attack for Brazil, especially when I think there will be plenty of outside in attacking - but they seem to find a way to score without the use of headers.
Brazil will win, and they will win in 90 minutes.
Brazil +120 vs Belgium (4 units to win 4.8)
Brazil to advance vs Belgium -160 (1.6 to win 1)
Predicted final score Brazil 2 Belgium 0
0
Posted:
#580
I rewatched 25mins extended highlights of Brazil's last two games - their structural integrity at all times is simply special. It almost feels like they play to win games 2-0 versus 4-2 which seems to be Belgium's desired course... We cannot understate the loss of Casemiro who is perfect for this system (and real's system) but a testament to Brazil's embarrassment of riches, Fernandinho can step in and do the job... I'm in!
0
Posted:
#582
Quote Originally Posted by BetCrimes1984:
Excuse me for 'hijacking' your thread, van, but I think these stats deserve to be viewed (& obv. this thread is well viewed) and it might be useful for you to learn as well going forward: Couple of historical scoreline angles that I can't see being ignored...(1) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 90 min 0-0 knockout result.8 knockout games in and none so far. To me, Uru/Fra & Swe/Eng would seem to be the biggest candidates to end the drought. I think the other two games will deliver at least 2 goals each. (2) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 2-1 knockout result.There's been 26(!) of these results (17 in 90 mins; 9 after ET: the only WC of the 8 to not deliver a 90 min 2-1 result happens to be the only WC ever played in Asia), that's a rate greater than 3 per WC yet here we've had none with half of the knockout games done & dusted. While history guarantees nothing in the present, I struggle to believe that both of these scorelines will just happen to fail to appear for the first time at the same WC. One of them? Always a chance, but both? Don't believe it.
Excuse me for 'hijacking' your thread, van, but I think these stats deserve to be viewed (& obv. this thread is well viewed) and it might be useful for you to learn as well going forward: Couple of historical scoreline angles that I can't see being ignored...(1) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 90 min 0-0 knockout result.8 knockout games in and none so far. To me, Uru/Fra & Swe/Eng would seem to be the biggest candidates to end the drought. I think the other two games will deliver at least 2 goals each. (2) All 8 WC's that have involved the R16 format have delivered a 2-1 knockout result.There's been 26(!) of these results (17 in 90 mins; 9 after ET: the only WC of the 8 to not deliver a 90 min 2-1 result happens to be the only WC ever played in Asia), that's a rate greater than 3 per WC yet here we've had none with half of the knockout games done & dusted. While history guarantees nothing in the present, I struggle to believe that both of these scorelines will just happen to fail to appear for the first time at the same WC. One of them? Always a chance, but both? Don't believe it.
BetCrimes, I loved the unders off a bye week thread in NFL 
I stole this from a DFS forum:
There have been 26 penalty shootouts at the World Cup.
Leaving out:
-the two finals shootouts, since there wasn’t a next game
-games in which the shootout winner met another in the next game (France and West Germany in ’86, Argentina and West Germany in ’90)
the shootout winners have gone 4-16 in their next match. Since 1998 only Brazil in 2014 has won, and they then proceeded to lose in the following round by six goals.
Teams that have won in extra time have gone 9-22 in their next match. Since 2002 it’s 3-14.
Those extra 30 minutes take a toll.
0
Posted:
#583
[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack] Brazil / Belgium
Now, I don't disagree with your analysis per se, but on one of the first pages here you said Belgium have trouble scoring, they don't. Belgium might lose tomorrow, but they will score. Good luck with your wagers and the rest of the WC. 
Getting this one up first as it is the game of the first two that I feel strongest about. I have been waiting for this exact spot since the tournament began, and even wrote about it in the first pages of this thread.
Belgium's coach is Roberto Martinez. I remember watching this guy coach Wigan Athletic in the EPL years ago seeing him play a unique style for the EPL - a 3-4-3 - or a 5-3-2 - the important part being that he played with 3 center backs and 2 "wingbacks". Basically nobody else in the EPL was using this at the time - and Wigan is a low budget club that was seeing success using it - even winning the FA Cup which is basically a minor miracle.
The premise of the wingbacks are that they are the fittest guys on the team, roaming up and down the pitch - serving as both offensive wingers and defenders. Used properly, it gives you width in attack and a very fortified defense against a slow buildup.
The problem it presents is the space left in behind the wingbacks when they go up in to attack - leaving a natural void in space in behind them if the ball gets stolen and a counter-attack ensues. In this case, speedy opposition can see lots of joy attacking those spaces on the flanks while the wingback is sprinting to get back in to position - and often you are only left with 3 to defend and outside in counter attack.
Brazil are the perfect team - the team that is best suited in this tournament - to exploit this style. You should see Neymar and Willian (or Douglas Costa if he is fit) attacking these spaces with success all game - attacking from the outside in.
Brazil +120 vs Belgium (4 units to win 4.8)
Brazil to advance vs Belgium -160 (1.6 to win 1)
Predicted final score Brazil 2 Belgium 0
I've been posting about Belgium in soccer forum for years, I am Belgian, but nonetheless not blind to the glaring deficiencies in this team, I'll copy and paste what I put in a thread earlier:
| Spec, I'm actually totally fine, zero stress over this. I would LOVE for Belgium to win against Brazil, but I've been pointing out the issues with this team for months and were they ever illustrated perfectly against Japan. I'm not going to rehash the whole thing, in short: Carrasco and Meunier on the wings are not defenders, they leave huge holes, even a 6-year old can see this, leaving exposed a 3 man defense, which could conceivably work, if it wasn't anchored by a vain, over ambitious and injured Kompany, his personal thirst for a career grand finale are jeopardizing this team's success. You need your midfield and offence to click perfectly to overcome this, against Japan, Hazard, DeBruyne, Mertens and Lukaku were invisible and Witsel slowed pace down and played balls to the back as usual. Martinez, the tool, could start with Fellaini and Chadli (who's defensive skills are way better than Carrasco and who still has offensive instincts), but who knows which starting 11 he'll pick, he thinks he has a "masterplan" for Brazil, I sincerely doubt it. Either way, Belgium will go down swinging, we'll score a goal, if Brazil try to be cute or refuse to come forward till late in the 2nd half, they might get a nasty surprise, but without having confirmed line ups, I see this as a 2-1 Brazil win, I will play the goals for sure and skip sides myself. If we had a good coach who would have implemented a strategic, tactical vision for this team of Wunderkinder, we could have won this thing, but we'll have to make do with the coaching we got. I'll be cheering hard and hoping for a lucky roll of the dice. Have a good one and BOL with your plays. | |
CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
0
Posted:
#589
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by freestlyin:
Thoughts on the opening Brazil/Belgium lineBrazil +110Belgium +250Draw +240I am surprised at any sort of +$ being given on Brazil given their reputation and Belgium's performance today
Right about where I thought the line would be.So no value play upfront.Going to look it over in the next several days. One thing of note, it is very common for a winning team to have a stumble in the WC. Dont count Belgium out.Thoughts on the opening Brazil/Belgium lineBrazil +110Belgium +250Draw +240I am surprised at any sort of +$ being given on Brazil given their reputation and Belgium's performance today
I kept thinking about this even as I bet Brazil. As it turned out, it was extremely prescient. Unfortunately, I had France to qualify parlayed with Brazil to qualify. That first goal changed everything. It was very unlucky. Meanwhile, Brazil missed a couple of close ones in the first half. Hard to know what would have happened had that early goal not gone in, but I think Brazil wins it. That is why betting soccer is so tough (imo). The better team does not always win (compare with Basketball for example). I look forward to hearing your thoughts on how the game played out and whether or not you think Belgium might now be a team of destiny.
0
Posted:
#593
Needless to say, a bad day at Vanzack World Headquarters. I will go back and read the responses, but honestly - not in the mood to do it now - so just posting tomorrows picks....
England -110 vs Sweden (90 minutes) (3.3 to win 3)- Swedens run will come to an end tomorrow. Their lack of ability to string together passes and have any type of creative midfield finally dooms them.
Croatia +122 vs Russia (90 minutes) (3 to win 3.66)
Just not in the mood to write these up, but for the most part I think both games will be won in the midfield - and it is no contest there in either.
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