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World Cup 2018

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Posted: #601
Spot on with the England v Sweden breakdown 


Lets make some coins on Croatia 

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Posted: #602

Swedish players looked listless out there. Did they sleep at all? I doubt it. Seems a few English fans were out pranking.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soccer-worldcup-swe-eng-alarm/sweden-evacuate-team-hotel-after-false-alarm-idUKKBN1JX0E4

 
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Posted: #603

On Croatia aswell.

BOL bud clover

 
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Posted: #604
Up to date through quarterfinals....

OVERALL RECORD:   Up 58.775  Down 53.4

Future Bets: (truncated)
Up 3.17  Down 2

Game Bets: (truncated)
Current Record - UP 55.605  Down 51.4
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Posted: #605
up is, well, UP! 
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Posted: #606
It has taken me a few days to get over the Belgium / Brazil game.  Not because it was a loss - that happens all the time - but because of what happened in that loss.

I don't care what you will read in the media.  I don't care if Belgium goes on to win the tournament.  I can tell you that if they played that game 10 times, Brazil wins comfortably 9 out of those 10 times based on what I saw during that game.

Dont believe me?  Google "expected goals model".  These use extremely data centric models to determine goal scoring opportunities during a game - and assigns probability of success on those chances to determine expected goals.  It is a really good gauge to determine if you were fortunate, or unlucky as it may be.

The Brazil / Belgium expected goals model is roughly 3 - .5 in favor of Brazil, and the chance of Brazil winning is 93%.  That is what makes me not sleep at night, and several days of ignoring covers.  But I am bouncing back.

Martinez did change his system, and kudos to him for doing so, but the credit he is receiving is very much results biased based.  If they lose that match - he is an idiot.  But to be fair - that is much of how sports work in general.

I am sticking with what I saw, what I have seen, and what I believe about these sides going in to the France / Belgium match.  And that is that Belgium will revert back to their wingback formation, and while France is not set up as well as Brazil to counter it - they should succeed in exploiting the flanks.  Belgium will likely return to the norm when it comes to converting chances also.

I like France for all of the obvious reasons - but also for one that maybe doesn't get talked about enough - and that is N'golo Kante.  He is probably the best in the world at his position - holding midfield (defensive) - and he really is the MVP of this tournament for me - especially if France go on to win it.  He will never win it of course because he isn't scoring goals - but his influence on games is incredible.  Do yourself a favor and watch this guy away from the ball.  Watch his movement and anticipation - it is stuff you really cant teach - and he runs on max for the whole game.

Anyway....

France PK and -.5 +112 (90 minutes) (2 to win 2.24)
France to advance -128  (2.56 to win 2)
Predicted final score France 2-1
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Posted: #607
Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

up is, well, UP! 

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Posted: #608

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

It has taken me a few days to get over the Belgium / Brazil game.  Not because it was a loss - that happens all the time - but because of what happened in that loss.I don't care what you will read in the media.  I don't care if Belgium goes on to win the tournament.  I can tell you that if they played that game 10 times, Brazil wins comfortably 9 out of those 10 times based on what I saw during that game.Dont believe me?  Google "expected goals model".  These use extremely data centric models to determine goal scoring opportunities during a game - and assigns probability of success on those chances to determine expected goals.  It is a really good gauge to determine if you were fortunate, or unlucky as it may be.The Brazil / Belgium expected goals model is roughly 3 - .5 in favor of Brazil, and the chance of Brazil winning is 93%.  That is what makes me not sleep at night, and several days of ignoring covers.  But I am bouncing back.Martinez did change his system, and kudos to him for doing so, but the credit he is receiving is very much results biased based.  If they lose that match - he is an idiot.  But to be fair - that is much of how sports work in general.I am sticking with what I saw, what I have seen, and what I believe about these sides going in to the France / Belgium match.  And that is that Belgium will revert back to their wingback formation, and while France is not set up as well as Brazil to counter it - they should succeed in exploiting the flanks.  Belgium will likely return to the norm when it comes to converting chances also.I like France for all of the obvious reasons - but also for one that maybe doesn't get talked about enough - and that is N'golo Kante.  He is probably the best in the world at his position - holding midfield (defensive) - and he really is the MVP of this tournament for me - especially if France go on to win it.  He will never win it of course because he isn't scoring goals - but his influence on games is incredible.  Do yourself a favor and watch this guy away from the ball.  Watch his movement and anticipation - it is stuff you really cant teach - and he runs on max for the whole game.Anyway....France PK and -.5 +112 (90 minutes) (2 to win 2.24)France to advance -128  (2.56 to win 2)Predicted final score France 2-1

 

Stacked lineup France has... If you believe Neymar is overrated, France perhaps has the strongest lineup of any world cup team and if Neymar is rightly rated as heir apparent, then France comfortably #2... No even slight  weaknesses for me. And as you mention your love for midfield advantages, Matuidi, Kante and Pogba is underrated largely due to Pogba being shackled by Mourinho... They look dominant! Also a shout out to Pavard and Hernandez, what players! Would love Giroud on the bench, and Dembele in the lineup but that would of course, change the shape of the team.... I am just on the over thus far with a slight Belgium lean given the odds but listening to all analyses to see if there is more to add.. BTTS is interesting...

 
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Posted: #609
Thanks, Vanz. Although I agree with you the Belgians have been so fortunate thus far that it is scary betting against them. They also play with a lot of joy, and are great front runners. When they get one goal in their energy and resolve to get more doubles. I still like France but not as much as you. Which brings me to my question, can you tell us your lean for the England Croatia matchup? I am very interested on your thoughts regarding that game because I think the Croats are in a bad spot and that is not something that we can usually say about a team in a semifinal in the WC. Thanks in advance. 
 
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Posted: #610
Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

 

Stacked lineup France has... If you believe Neymar is overrated, France perhaps has the strongest lineup of any world cup team and if Neymar is rightly rated as heir apparent, then France comfortably #2... No even slight  weaknesses for me. And as you mention your love for midfield advantages, Matuidi, Kante and Pogba is underrated largely due to Pogba being shackled by Mourinho... They look dominant! Also a shout out to Pavard and Hernandez, what players! Would love Giroud on the bench, and Dembele in the lineup but that would of course, change the shape of the team.... I am just on the over thus far with a slight Belgium lean given the odds but listening to all analyses to see if there is more to add.. BTTS is interesting...


Agree totally.

I think BTTS is also a good bet here.

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Posted: #611
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Thanks, Vanz. Although I agree with you the Belgians have been so fortunate thus far that it is scary betting against them. They also play with a lot of joy, and are great front runners. When they get one goal in their energy and resolve to get more doubles. I still like France but not as much as you. Which brings me to my question, can you tell us your lean for the England Croatia matchup? I am very interested on your thoughts regarding that game because I think the Croats are in a bad spot and that is not something that we can usually say about a team in a semifinal in the WC. Thanks in advance. 

Understand your comments about Belgium, and agree.  

My thoughts on Croatia vs England....  I am going to do a writeup on it tomorrow - but this is the preview....

If this match was a month from now, I would be all over Croatia.  I think they have advantages all over the field, especially in midfield.  Rakitic and Modric have been dominant - and England have no answer for this.  I don't see many positions on the field other than striker where an England player would start on this Croatia team.

That being said, I have a lot of trouble believing that 2 120 minute games in a row with 2 shootouts won't have an effect on this team.  So I am somewhat conflicted.  Pretty sure I would want to have Croatia in 90 minutes because I am sure another ET would benefit England.  It won't be a big money game for me - but if I had to bet today - I would be looking at Croatia in 90 minutes probably at a PK +135ish for about 2 units risk.  Could all change - but for now - that is my thoughts.

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Posted: #612
One other note...

I do believe there is a big "homer" effect with England.

England - bless them - is full of degenerate gamblers.  And they all think they are going to win the WC.

The price on England definitely has this built in.
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Posted: #613
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

One other note...

I do believe there is a big "homer" effect with England.

England - bless them - is full of degenerate gamblers.  And they all think they are going to win the WC.

The price on England definitely has this built in.


I completely agree. Also agree that Croatia is more talented in key positions but I can't overlook the intangibles--current form, team chemistry and spirit, better situational spot due the path the other team has taken, and coaching --which all seem to favor England. Don't these things factor in in any way when betting soccer? Or is it all about matchups on the field and/or finding value in the line regardless of who is in an a better position to win?
 
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Posted: #614

Van couldn't agree more on Kante...he absolutely DOMINATED versus Uruguay and played his best game of what has been a superb tourney for him. Seemed like he won every single challenge, got every single 50/50 ball, and every single one of his passes was spot on and exactly where they needed to be, in addition to basically being in exact right place the entire match as you pointed out. What a player an_cheerspeace_5

 

Sitting on a large France 7-1 future and love seeing you on them to advance

 
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Posted: #615
Speaking of “what we read in the media” and “results bias”, there was a depressing amount of drivel to fill quotas and columns, based upon one game whose result you ague persuasively isn’t quite representative of relative strength. Outlets and writers who should know better went immediately from “Brazil’s favored to win it all” and “Brazil is the most creative with the ball, and btw can’t be scored on” to “They’re in a major identity crisis” and “In disarray, Brazil must toss its entire philosophy for something more Euro.”  One less errant kick on at least four occasions in the last 12 minutes or so could have altered this narrative completely. This was a far cry from their 2014 exit, but you’d hardly know it from some of the lazy post game hyperbole and parallels.
Thanks for taking the extra time to share your musings.
 
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Posted: #616

Brazil was the best team by far imo so yeah I agree with they shouldn't have lost to Belgium. But Belgium's offense was lights out.


By far the best game of the tournament so far in terms of pure talent.  caviar.

 
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Posted: #617
Yo Vanzack,

Couldn’t agree more with your take on the Brazil loss. The game I saw was total domination by the losing team. Yet, Martinez is praised for his stellar coaching. I’m sure he coached up that own goal, Brazil’s shot off the post, and all those beautiful looks that Brazil had - only to go wide or high each time. Belgium was incredibly lucky and Brazil incredibly unlucky all in the same game. 

That one will give me nightmares for sometime! 
 
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Posted: #618

Van I appreciate all your posts and tail you from time to time.

I wouldnt think too hard about the added minutes played by Croatia.  These guys are elite athletes and very fit.  Lets be honest though this isn't a sport where your experiencing one on one battles like hockey does.  These guys are doing a lot of jogging, some sprinting and a little walking at times.  With a few good nights sleep they will be fine.  Croatia's back line has some question marks but if they field there usual lineup I don't see how England penetrates it.  I also see Croatia control the midfield game as they did for almost the whole game vs everyone they played.  I love seeing England money pour in so the Croatia line rises.

 
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Posted: #619

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

  Stacked lineup France has... If you believe Neymar is overrated, France perhaps has the strongest lineup of any world cup team and if Neymar is rightly rated as heir apparent, then France comfortably #2... No even slight  weaknesses for me. And as you mention your love for midfield advantages, Matuidi, Kante and Pogba is underrated largely due to Pogba being shackled by Mourinho... They look dominant! Also a shout out to Pavard and Hernandez, what players! Would love Giroud on the bench, and Dembele in the lineup but that would of course, change the shape of the team.... I am just on the over thus far with a slight Belgium lean given the odds but listening to all analyses to see if there is more to add.. BTTS is interesting...
Agree totally.I think BTTS is also a good bet here.

someone please help. What is “BTTS”.  ?   Glad to see you back, mr van. 

 
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Posted: #620

Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

  Stacked lineup France has... If you believe Neymar is overrated, France perhaps has the strongest lineup of any world cup team and if Neymar is rightly rated as heir apparent, then France comfortably #2... No even slight  weaknesses for me. And as you mention your love for midfield advantages, Matuidi, Kante and Pogba is underrated largely due to Pogba being shackled by Mourinho... They look dominant! Also a shout out to Pavard and Hernandez, what players! Would love Giroud on the bench, and Dembele in the lineup but that would of course, change the shape of the team.... I am just on the over thus far with a slight Belgium lean given the odds but listening to all analyses to see if there is more to add.. BTTS is interesting...
Agree totally.I think BTTS is also a good bet here.
someone please help. What is “BTTS”.  ?   Glad to see you back, mr van.

 

Both teams to scorepeace_5

 
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Posted: #621
So if I read correctly England has scored the most off of set pieces than any other team and Croatia has a solid defense but from the past couple of games the opposition is frequently on Croatia's half of the field...

An England win possibly? 

I'm heavily in the France bet with a future overall win early in the games but this game for England and Croatia has me at a loss as to who will prevail. I almost want to say that England seems to have more drive to win this match up.

Am I missing something?
 
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Posted: #622

This time the Belgians did not get lucky! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #623
Some random thoughts, read on if you are really bored...

Greatest World Cup Ever.  

If you listen to Fox, and every ad they put up, and the blowhards on the set, this is the greatest ever.  Why?  Because it is Fox first WC of course!  Is it really though?

Not for me.  With so many goals coming from a stop ball (set piece) - whether it be a free kick, corner kick, or PK - that for me is not great.  Open play goals are what makes this sport special, and creative, and beautiful.  Not a header on a corner - or legislating a PK.

So why so many?  My theory is that because these guys aren't together all that often, and since defense is easier to master in the short term than offense, that we have this situation.  Free flowing moves that build from the defense to the midfield and then on to the strikers are rare in this WC, and to me - having a tournament of set pieces - is not great.

And I am leaving out the worst part of this WC, the Fox coverage, but I think I have said enough about that.
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Posted: #624
France last 35 minutes were almost comical for me.  How could they sit back - give up possession so easily - and allow the right side flank to be basically unchallenged for that long?  

And how is Fellaini playing right wing for about 20 minutes for Belgium?

For me, France are easily good enough to take some possession in the last 35 minutes, and keep pressing for a second goal.  Time ran out before Belgium scored, plain and simple - if the game was another minute, 10 minutes, or 100 minutes Belgium were going to tie it up at some point.  Worrysome if I am a France supporter.

But results bias rewrites history - and they won 1-0 - and therefore everyone is a genius and they did things exactly the right way.  I say all of this because no matter who they play in the final - there is a very good chance they will be up 1-0, and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.


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Posted: #625
Oh, and my pick for tonight:

5 units on HW to beat HC 1-0
5 units on Willingham to score first goal (+400)
3 units on Willingham to do a goal slide celebration

GL

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