Love formula 1 season. I'm preparing my write up for the season and will do that tomorrow along with thoughts and a couple picks on the first race of the year.
I've been so anxious to start this thread
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
It's baaaaaaaaack!
Love formula 1 season. I'm preparing my write up for the season and will do that tomorrow along with thoughts and a couple picks on the first race of the year.
was wondering when you were going to start this...
why is Hamilton the big fav this year?
what happened to Vettel?
Red Bull cars have been bad in practice with the new engines. They haven't been faster than 7th. Red Bull will put out a good car, but they may be playing catchup for the first few races. Mercedes have looked great...I expect them and Ferrari to be strong all year long.
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Quote Originally Posted by madshooter72:
was wondering when you were going to start this...
why is Hamilton the big fav this year?
what happened to Vettel?
Red Bull cars have been bad in practice with the new engines. They haven't been faster than 7th. Red Bull will put out a good car, but they may be playing catchup for the first few races. Mercedes have looked great...I expect them and Ferrari to be strong all year long.
Last year was a pretty easy year to handicap since Vettel had superior equipment and steamrolled the competition. But that will absolutely not be the case this year. Rule changes to the engines, transmissions, and exhaust have left the Red Bull cars scrambling, and instead of lapping the field they seem to be lucky to keep up with half the field.
There's a fantastic article on the forumla 1 site describing the exact changes to the engines and transmissions if you're a gearhead and want to know the specifics. It really is amazing how advanced these cars are.
Currently, the Mercedes and the Williams look like the initial favorites with the Mercedes drivers of Hamilton and Rosberg looking the best and most consistent in practice.
The Williams cars have been really fast as well, but I'm not a believer in the drivers. Felipe Massa and Bottas don't have the talent as the elite guys right now, so while I think they may have value in some matchups, I don't see them being able to make the strong moves to pass guys like Hamilton, Alonso, Rosberg, etc.
The Ferrari's have been able to keep up, and I like their chances this year. I think combined they have the most talent on the their team, and I still think Fernando Alonso is the most talented driver on the circuit. I like them to make some noise, and I think the constructors championship will come down to them and the Mercedes. I'll be looking to back Alonso a lot this year.
The team that could have the most value in matchups is the Force India team. If you followed the thread last year, you probably made a lot of money backing Nico Hulkenberg like I did, and I'm hoping we get similar matchups and props. These cars have been really fast this year, and him and Perez I think have enough talent to put together a successful season. I don't know if they have the chance to win, but combined between the two of them I think they should have at least 7 top 5's this year. I know that's high expectations, but their cars have been that good in practice.
The Red Bull cars have been awful in practice, and that's putting it nice. However, we have to remember that Red Bull has basically unlimited resources, and they will be doing everything they can to improve their cars, so don't count them out. I will count them out of the constructors championship because I'm not a Daniel Recciardo believer. He's good, but he's still a year or two away from having the pure talent of the elite guys. So even though he's on a great team, I don't think he will have the consistency like Webber did last year. Couple that with Vettel's practice struggles, and the other teams improvements and I think Red Bull will be lucky to finish third in the the points. I'm going to need to watch Ricciardo for a couple races to see how he's doing, but I'd love to see him paired in the matchups against guys like Massa, Hulkenburg, Grosjean, etc. I'll take those guys all day against him. As far as Vettel goes, I think we need to be patient. I know he's looked bad in practice, but this guy still has elite driving talent with an elite team, so it's not like he's going to be lapped in the first race. I just think the first few races could be rough.
It's funny that a rule change meant to prevent a "Sebastian Vettel runaway" may actually help him. Here's what I mean: Formula 1 decided to double the points of the last race in Abu Dhabi which means that lots of guys will have a chance to win the championship in the final race. If Vettel struggles in the early races, but Red Bull gets the cars faster as the year goes on, Vettel could get momentum going and then end up able to win that final race to propel into another championship. That final race gives hope to teams that struggle out of the gate.
So where's the value right now? In Formula 1 racing I will take several futures on various guys to win championships throughout the year. The goal is to have lots of bets on guys at their lowest value, and right now Vettel's value is low, so I'm going to put a little bit on Vettel +400 to win the championship. If he does decent at the first race those odds will drop. If he struggles, I'll look at grabbing him after the third or fourth race again if he gets to +800 or so. I'm also grabbing Alonso at +700. He's got the talent, and this year I think he may have the car as well.
With future bets, don't tail me if you're only going to take those two bets and nothing else. Betting futures in F1 is different from all other sports...you need to find the value in drivers and cars as the year goes on so I'll have lots of futures tickets at the end of the year. The goal is to have Alonso +700, Hamilton +500, and Vettel +400 in your pocket at the end of the year. There's no value on Hamilton right now at +230 so we will wait and hope he has a couple bad races to get his number up around the +500 mark. If he's as good as the books and the F1 teams think he might be this year and he gets a big lead, there's nothing wrong with loading up on him at -200. We did it last year with Vettel all year long (I think I had 6 Vettel future tickets last year). When I take a future in F1 it's normally only 1/4 - 1/2 of a unit.
Formula 1 was a cash cow last year, but I don't expect the same this year. There's a lot more unpredictability, a lot more teams and drivers that can compete for wins, but that can also be a plus for us bettors because the books may not have a good feel as well, so we just have to find the weak matchups or props. I don't see myself taking many drivers to win straight up this year as I don't think the value will be there unless one team emerges, but I can see finding 2-3 matchups/props that I will love each week, and hopefully we capitalize on those.
For me, the best moment in sports is the beginning of a Formula 1 race, and I still get goosebumps during the pre-race festivities. The crowd with all the different flags, the scenes from all the different countries, the parade lap, and then hearing those engine rev and then take off into the first corner...nothing like it in sports. My routine is to get up and watch the race live at whatever time it's televised, and have bloody mary's all race long, and Sunday can't get here fast enough.
Should be a great year with lots of exciting races!!!
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2014 PREVIEW
Last year was a pretty easy year to handicap since Vettel had superior equipment and steamrolled the competition. But that will absolutely not be the case this year. Rule changes to the engines, transmissions, and exhaust have left the Red Bull cars scrambling, and instead of lapping the field they seem to be lucky to keep up with half the field.
There's a fantastic article on the forumla 1 site describing the exact changes to the engines and transmissions if you're a gearhead and want to know the specifics. It really is amazing how advanced these cars are.
Currently, the Mercedes and the Williams look like the initial favorites with the Mercedes drivers of Hamilton and Rosberg looking the best and most consistent in practice.
The Williams cars have been really fast as well, but I'm not a believer in the drivers. Felipe Massa and Bottas don't have the talent as the elite guys right now, so while I think they may have value in some matchups, I don't see them being able to make the strong moves to pass guys like Hamilton, Alonso, Rosberg, etc.
The Ferrari's have been able to keep up, and I like their chances this year. I think combined they have the most talent on the their team, and I still think Fernando Alonso is the most talented driver on the circuit. I like them to make some noise, and I think the constructors championship will come down to them and the Mercedes. I'll be looking to back Alonso a lot this year.
The team that could have the most value in matchups is the Force India team. If you followed the thread last year, you probably made a lot of money backing Nico Hulkenberg like I did, and I'm hoping we get similar matchups and props. These cars have been really fast this year, and him and Perez I think have enough talent to put together a successful season. I don't know if they have the chance to win, but combined between the two of them I think they should have at least 7 top 5's this year. I know that's high expectations, but their cars have been that good in practice.
The Red Bull cars have been awful in practice, and that's putting it nice. However, we have to remember that Red Bull has basically unlimited resources, and they will be doing everything they can to improve their cars, so don't count them out. I will count them out of the constructors championship because I'm not a Daniel Recciardo believer. He's good, but he's still a year or two away from having the pure talent of the elite guys. So even though he's on a great team, I don't think he will have the consistency like Webber did last year. Couple that with Vettel's practice struggles, and the other teams improvements and I think Red Bull will be lucky to finish third in the the points. I'm going to need to watch Ricciardo for a couple races to see how he's doing, but I'd love to see him paired in the matchups against guys like Massa, Hulkenburg, Grosjean, etc. I'll take those guys all day against him. As far as Vettel goes, I think we need to be patient. I know he's looked bad in practice, but this guy still has elite driving talent with an elite team, so it's not like he's going to be lapped in the first race. I just think the first few races could be rough.
It's funny that a rule change meant to prevent a "Sebastian Vettel runaway" may actually help him. Here's what I mean: Formula 1 decided to double the points of the last race in Abu Dhabi which means that lots of guys will have a chance to win the championship in the final race. If Vettel struggles in the early races, but Red Bull gets the cars faster as the year goes on, Vettel could get momentum going and then end up able to win that final race to propel into another championship. That final race gives hope to teams that struggle out of the gate.
So where's the value right now? In Formula 1 racing I will take several futures on various guys to win championships throughout the year. The goal is to have lots of bets on guys at their lowest value, and right now Vettel's value is low, so I'm going to put a little bit on Vettel +400 to win the championship. If he does decent at the first race those odds will drop. If he struggles, I'll look at grabbing him after the third or fourth race again if he gets to +800 or so. I'm also grabbing Alonso at +700. He's got the talent, and this year I think he may have the car as well.
With future bets, don't tail me if you're only going to take those two bets and nothing else. Betting futures in F1 is different from all other sports...you need to find the value in drivers and cars as the year goes on so I'll have lots of futures tickets at the end of the year. The goal is to have Alonso +700, Hamilton +500, and Vettel +400 in your pocket at the end of the year. There's no value on Hamilton right now at +230 so we will wait and hope he has a couple bad races to get his number up around the +500 mark. If he's as good as the books and the F1 teams think he might be this year and he gets a big lead, there's nothing wrong with loading up on him at -200. We did it last year with Vettel all year long (I think I had 6 Vettel future tickets last year). When I take a future in F1 it's normally only 1/4 - 1/2 of a unit.
Formula 1 was a cash cow last year, but I don't expect the same this year. There's a lot more unpredictability, a lot more teams and drivers that can compete for wins, but that can also be a plus for us bettors because the books may not have a good feel as well, so we just have to find the weak matchups or props. I don't see myself taking many drivers to win straight up this year as I don't think the value will be there unless one team emerges, but I can see finding 2-3 matchups/props that I will love each week, and hopefully we capitalize on those.
For me, the best moment in sports is the beginning of a Formula 1 race, and I still get goosebumps during the pre-race festivities. The crowd with all the different flags, the scenes from all the different countries, the parade lap, and then hearing those engine rev and then take off into the first corner...nothing like it in sports. My routine is to get up and watch the race live at whatever time it's televised, and have bloody mary's all race long, and Sunday can't get here fast enough.
Should be a great year with lots of exciting races!!!
It's my Dad's dream to go there as well. I remember being a kid and him saying his one thing on the bucket list would be to watch Monaco on a balcony of one of those hotels on the strip. Man, that'd be amazing
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Quote Originally Posted by stats1:
Monoco is on my bucket list 4 sure!!!!
It's my Dad's dream to go there as well. I remember being a kid and him saying his one thing on the bucket list would be to watch Monaco on a balcony of one of those hotels on the strip. Man, that'd be amazing
Hey Alan. This is my local race this weekend so will tail you and hopefully we have a winning weekend.
Awesome! I'll be honest and let you know I'm going to be pretty cautious with the picks this weekend because of the new engines and teams, but I think I'll be able to find a couple picks to go our way.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:
Hey Alan. This is my local race this weekend so will tail you and hopefully we have a winning weekend.
Awesome! I'll be honest and let you know I'm going to be pretty cautious with the picks this weekend because of the new engines and teams, but I think I'll be able to find a couple picks to go our way.
Right now before qualifying I'm going to put just a bit on Hamilton +185 and Rosberg +375. They went 1-2 in practice, have been fastest in the off season practice...I think after qualifying the odds on them may go down and lose the value.
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Right now before qualifying I'm going to put just a bit on Hamilton +185 and Rosberg +375. They went 1-2 in practice, have been fastest in the off season practice...I think after qualifying the odds on them may go down and lose the value.
Webber got sick of the F1 scene and took a payday to race in a new Porche series in Europe.
Ricciardo drove for Toro Rosso last year, which is the Red Bull JV team basically. He was being groomed for the last couple years to drive one of Red Bulls main cars, so this move wasn't a big surprise.
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Webber got sick of the F1 scene and took a payday to race in a new Porche series in Europe.
Ricciardo drove for Toro Rosso last year, which is the Red Bull JV team basically. He was being groomed for the last couple years to drive one of Red Bulls main cars, so this move wasn't a big surprise.
Qualifying was a disaster. It was raining, windy...so you can't really tell much about the cars from that session. However, Vettel is starting back in 13th, and Kimi wrecked in qualifying so he's back in 12th. However, their cars are way better than that so keep that in mind.
Plays right now.
Rosberg Top 3 -135 Vettel Top 10 -185 Hulkenberg Top 10 -185 Vettel Top 6 +175 Perez -130 over Sutil
Glad we locked in Hamilton at +185. He's already at -120 to win.
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Qualifying was a disaster. It was raining, windy...so you can't really tell much about the cars from that session. However, Vettel is starting back in 13th, and Kimi wrecked in qualifying so he's back in 12th. However, their cars are way better than that so keep that in mind.
Plays right now.
Rosberg Top 3 -135 Vettel Top 10 -185 Hulkenberg Top 10 -185 Vettel Top 6 +175 Perez -130 over Sutil
Glad we locked in Hamilton at +185. He's already at -120 to win.
My sports book is running a promo of doubling the return on an outright bet. Max of 100 return
So I have taken rossberg at 4.33 and Hamilton yesterday hopefully the Aussie does not win!!! I think webber always struggled at home. The australian public never really liked him
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My sports book is running a promo of doubling the return on an outright bet. Max of 100 return
So I have taken rossberg at 4.33 and Hamilton yesterday hopefully the Aussie does not win!!! I think webber always struggled at home. The australian public never really liked him
Qualifying was a disaster. It was raining, windy...so you can't really tell much about the cars from that session. However, Vettel is starting back in 13th, and Kimi wrecked in qualifying so he's back in 12th. However, their cars are way better than that so keep that in mind.
Plays right now.
Rosberg Top 3 -135 Vettel Top 10 -185 Hulkenberg Top 10 -185 Vettel Top 6 +175 Perez -130 over Sutil
Glad we locked in Hamilton at +185. He's already at -120 to win.
Bol buddy tailed u on the Perez matchup except I got it at -150
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Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Qualifying was a disaster. It was raining, windy...so you can't really tell much about the cars from that session. However, Vettel is starting back in 13th, and Kimi wrecked in qualifying so he's back in 12th. However, their cars are way better than that so keep that in mind.
Plays right now.
Rosberg Top 3 -135 Vettel Top 10 -185 Hulkenberg Top 10 -185 Vettel Top 6 +175 Perez -130 over Sutil
Glad we locked in Hamilton at +185. He's already at -120 to win.
Bol buddy tailed u on the Perez matchup except I got it at -150
Bol buddy tailed u on the Perez matchup except I got it at -150
Still a good bet. Perez is in superior equipment. The Force India cars have found unexpected speed this offseason and in practice. Perez just had a bad qualifying run. I figured there would be at least one matchup that the books would regret putting up there. Looks like this may be the one.
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Quote Originally Posted by stats1:
Bol buddy tailed u on the Perez matchup except I got it at -150
Still a good bet. Perez is in superior equipment. The Force India cars have found unexpected speed this offseason and in practice. Perez just had a bad qualifying run. I figured there would be at least one matchup that the books would regret putting up there. Looks like this may be the one.
I am new to F1 racing but have decided to give it a try. I will be up tonight anyway so I am going to try my luck even though I don't have a clue about this type of racing. Might be the only race we see Sunday with all of the rain headed towards BristoI.
1 unit - Hamilton to Win +100
Top 6 Finish Parlay Risking 5 units to Win 3.7 Hamilton Top 6 (-340) Rosberg Top 6 (-290)
Thank you for the write up alan it was very helpful! GOOD LUCK!
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I am new to F1 racing but have decided to give it a try. I will be up tonight anyway so I am going to try my luck even though I don't have a clue about this type of racing. Might be the only race we see Sunday with all of the rain headed towards BristoI.
1 unit - Hamilton to Win +100
Top 6 Finish Parlay Risking 5 units to Win 3.7 Hamilton Top 6 (-340) Rosberg Top 6 (-290)
Thank you for the write up alan it was very helpful! GOOD LUCK!
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