FORMULA 1 THREAD 2014

Well, we had a really good race at the Canadian Grand Prix, which I feel pretty lucky.  Lots of accidents, car troubles and weird stuff happening to some big names, and we still went 4-0, but missed the winner.  That was the type of race where you can really get hurt because you have to lay so much juice in F1 betting, so I feel very fortunate to get those results.

This weeks race is the Austrian Grand Prix, which happens to be at a track owned by the Red Bull owner.  This will be the first time the Red Bull cars race at this track under the Red Bull ownership, so I'm sure there will be just a little bit more motivation for Ricciardo and Vettel to have a good showing.

The track is shorter than most tracks, but the turns aren't very hard on tyres, so I think this benefits the Mercedes cars who have had brake issues, but shouldn't experience it at this track.

I'm going to lay off the winners because I don't see any value with the lines the books are putting out, but I do have 3 early plays.

Ricciardo top 6 -300
Bottas top 10 -300
And if you've followed this thread, you know I have my standard play of Hulkenberg top 10 -250.

Fun stat:

Hulkenberg, dating back to last year, has 9 straight top 10 finishes and 13 out of the last 15.  Love this bet every week.

Hulkenberg

Ment to say F1

5dimes and bookmaker, but mostly 5dimes.  I use sportsbook.ag for some Nascar bets as well.

It's been a pretty incredible run for F1 so far this year.  Yet to lose money on any race (one race I went 1-1), which is amazing because of the crazy off-season engine changes. 

Very interesting developments in practice and qualifying.

The Williams cars found something throughout the weekend, and blistered the field in qualifying.  I don't think the Mercedes were sandbagging...I think the Williams cars are that fast.  They've been good all year, but they may have broken through...

I like the odds of them to win, so I'll sprinkle something very small on both of them.

Massa +350
Bottas +1000 (this is fantastic value)

I'm adding Alonso Top 6 -225
Adding a little more to Ricciardo Top 6 and Hulkenberg Top 10.

Here's my fun play for this race...

Hamilton struggled in qualifying, but not in practice.  He has a fast car, but spun in qualifying so he's starting back in ninth.  He's got to get by Raikonnen (who drives for Ferrari, and they are no fans of the Mercedes dominance so far), as well as Ricciardo who is racing for Red Bull at their home track.  I can see a scenario where Hamilton tries to get around a lot of guys right at the beginning, and since he's got a faster car than most in front of him, everyone may not survive that initial onslaught of Hamilton passes...including himself.

Rosberg is starting up front, and if he gets out in front, this race could be over, so Hamilton will be anxious to get up front as quickly as possible...and he could end up taking himself out.  Also, don't forget that Hamilton has had brake problems, and he's going to be putting that car through hell at the first part of the race. 

I'm putting $4 on Hamilton to be the first car to retire at +3300 as my way to try and win a quick $132. 

They will post more odds before the race which is at 8:00 Eastern time...so if you're an early riser...or you're like me and you may be just getting home...they might put out some really juicy matchups since qualifying was so messed up.  I'll definitely be up to watch this race as I think there could be lots of action in this race.

Adding Ricciardo +100 over Alonso

Don't usually ever piddle around with F1 but I threw 3 plays n on this race tailing u buddy 

GL to both of us Stats! Fingers crossed

Adding a little bit on
Bottas top 6 -225
Kimi top 10 -175

Ricciardo off course twice so far once because his teammate.

Indiana

Sorry about that Ricciardo bet Stats.  He had a better car than Alonso, but ran into some trouble early and couldn't quite catch up.  This will also be the last time I bet against Alonso unless he's paired up against Hamilton or Rosberg.  Alonso is the most talented driver in F1.  There is no way he should be getting the finishes he's getting.  The Ferrari cars are junk compared to the Mercedes, Williams and Ricciardo's Red Bull yet there he is top 5 every week. 

And if you want to see a way to lose a race because of horrendous laughable strategy just take a look at the Williams pit strategy today.  Unreal.  They had every opportunity to get the win today, and somebody forgot to mention that when your tyres wear down...so do your lap times.  It's baffling what they did today.

Vettel pulled off the very difficult "finish last and cripple my teammates chance".  Cost me 2 bets today.  Begs the question...who's more mad at who?  Vettel at his team for giving him a car built with duct tape and a prayer?  Or Red Bull at Vettel for attempting to set 2 moving screens on Ricciardo?

Managed to have a slightly profitable race, which makes it 8 straight non-losing races to start the year (one race I went 1 and 1) which is pretty incredible.

I feel like I've had a great feel for the races, but not for the futures.  I don't put a lot on the futures, but I've been a little behind.  I think now is the time to take Rosberg.  I think Hamilton has the name, but Rosberg has the car, and one trend we don't notice in F1 as much as we should is that Rosberg has better pit stops every single time.  That can cost positions, and in F1 that's huge.  I also think Rosberg's car is slightly better right now, and if he gets another win or 2, I'm not sure Hamilton can reel him back in.

So, here's the nerdy section of my post.

The Williams cars all of a sudden had the speed to win last weekend, and I wondered what changed.  If you're in to F1, always read the technical section of F1 after a race.  You'll see what teams did that worked and that didn't.  Here's the explanation for the Williams newly found speed.

I don't know what all the technical jargon is, but you can get the point.  This is copied right from the F1 site which is a fantastic tool for F1 betting.



Williams produced a shock in Austria as they proved to be the most competitive team after Mercedes, carrying the fight to the championship leaders throughout the weekend. One of the secrets behind their pace also came to light over the Spielberg weekend - an innovative intercooler installation previously thought to be unique to the Silver Arrows (Click here for more). It was revealed earlier this season that Mercedes' decision to place the turbo and compressor at opposite ends of their power unit (Click here for more) has made cooling far more straightforward, and it's now emerged that the Mercedes-powered Williams squad have - like their engine suppliers - used this fact to cleverly locate their intercooler immediately behind the cockpit (red arrow). This allows them to run smaller, more aerodynamic sidepods, with incredibly neatly packaged radiators - a design arguably second only to Mercedes' own in terms of efficiency. Rivals using Ferrari and Renault power have not been able to integrate this layout since their power units group the turbo and compressor together at the rear of the engine (Click here for more), but expect it to become a trend on all teams' 2015 cars.

I expect Williams to be strong the rest of the year based on this information, and it sounds like the rest of the teams might be a little behind on this technology.

There's also a fantastic article on what cars are doing good on tracks that feature lots of turns, compared to long straights.  I only use a couple of sources of information to do F1 bets, but the official F1 site is by far the most helpful.

British Grand Prix time!!!

We are on a pretty incredible run...8 races to start the season...8 races where we haven't lost money...hope we make it 9 in a row!

The British Grand Prix has a couple of interesting things about it.  First off, it's very unpredictable for weather.  Rain can pop up out of nowhere, so teams have to be prepared.  The other thing is that this track is really hard on tyres, and it has probably has the best set of turns of the season.  Turns 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 lead to a straight away, and if drivers are anxious to pass, but miss in these turns they have another tough chance in turn 15 after the sprint down the stretch.  The pits area can be tough to enter so I expect the aggressive drivers to have the advantage here.  Lots of time can be made up or lost in the pits this race.

I'm going to make some early plays here, and as you will notice I'm only making one play supporting the Mercedes.  At this price, I don't think there's a ton of value on Rosberg or Hamilton, and they have had brake issues this season, and if theres a track to give them problems again it's this one.    If Rosberg wins this race in Hamilton's home country I think it could be a big time blow to Hamilton's hopes to win the championship.  I expect a big time fight up front from both these guys and anybody else who thinks they have a chance to grab a win this week.

I'm a believer in the Williams cars and I think they will be strong for the rest of the year, but I'm going to wait and see how they practice before I jump on board just yet.

Early plays

Bottas -210 top 6
Ricciardo -270 top 6
Alonso -220 top 6
Rosberg -410 top 3

Qualifying
Alonso -425 over Raikkonen

...and of course we have to go with the bread and butter of Hulkenberg top 10 at -325.

This race is going to be incredible.  If you have a chance to watch the first 10 laps, it's going to be a complete clusterf*ck.  Rain totally messed up qualifying, and there are some big name guys starting 16th or worse.  Watching them navigate through the traffic is going to be amazing racing.  Especially watching Alonso and Bottas fly to the front if they avoid early trouble.

My only qualifying play all year was a weird one but I'll take it.  Alonso qualifies 4th slowest after losing control on a wet track, but Raikkonen qualifies 3rd slowest getting us the win.  Unreal.

...and this is what happens when qualifying is messed up.  The books put out some crazy lines.  I'm hoping I can take advantage because win or lose, these lines are not correct.  They are based only on the starting position of the cars, and the books aren't taking into account quality of car, conditions of qualifying, and quality of driver.

Adding

Bottas -165 top 10
Raikkonen +125 top 10
Alonso +225 top 6

The Alonso line is baffling.  I locked him in at -220 before practice started.  He was good in practice, and then qualified bad in the rain as most guys did.  He's starting in the back, but with his ability and quality of car there's no way he should be +225.  Yes there's the potential for a wreck, but there's that potential every week. 

Bottas is the same way.  He was -210 top 6 before practice started.  Now he's -165 for top 10.  I'm just not sure why the prices change so much based on qualifying that took place in the rain.

This is a pretty big race for my plays...lots of action...lots of potential gain...but lots of potential loss as well. 

Hi Alan.  Good stuff.  Can rakinnonen beat hulkenberg head to head.   I know hulkenberg has been good to you but big odds difference 

I don't think so.

Well you weren't wrong about an incredible start.

Missed the start as starting watching a coco on lance Armstrong 

Damn...all the Alonso plays look brilliant. Now he gets a random 5 second penalty. Still think he has the car to pull off top 6, but it's gonna be close.

Tigers-you missed a crazy start!

Great race to watch...great race as we had a pretty profitable day as well.  Normally losing a bet is bad, but having Rosberg go out was a lucky break.  Lost that bet, but that let Alonso get into the top 6 which ended up winning more money than we lost on that sequence.

I've seen the future of Formula 1...and his name is Valterri Bottas. 

He started 16th, and finished second.  Unbelievable driving was on display from this guy, and he's just a rookie.  I posted above about the Williams cars and how they made some changes to the cooling system, and it certainly looks like the cars are legit.  Hopefully it takes the books a while to catch up, but Bottas and Massa are going to have value moving forward.

Vettel did not do much to enhance his image today.  He couldn't get around Alonso, and he was complaining on the radio so much, and he sounded like such a weasel that the announcers started openly make fun of him.  It was classic...only from European announcers.

Hope everyone enjoyed the race, and of course hope everyone made some

Got the German Grand Prix this week...I'm waiting til after qualifying to get my plays in this week.  The Mercedes are strong, but there is some jockeying for position after them, so I'm going to play it safe this week.  Started off the year with 8 straight winning races...no need to get careless here.