Great Lakes water levels and climate change

No doubt our climate is changing, earth is warming, ice is melting, etc. So I look at the Great Lakes and see a parallel in how we as humans react, determine cause and effect, and then create remedies to correct the problems. 

So let us start with the Great Lakes. Back in 2013 the Great Lakes hit record lows. Here are two articles on this issue;

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/02/06/lake-michigan-lake-huron-record-low-levels-drought/1896603/

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/great-lakes-hit-record-low-levels-climate-crisis/story?id=18440443

Both articles say scientists blame both climate change and dredging as the main causes for the low levels.

Corp of Engineers were looking into putting "speed bumps" in the St Clair river to slow the waters leaving lake Huron.

The usatoday article says; "Roger Gauthier, a retired staff hydrologist with the Army corps, said a series of "speed bumps" could be put in the river at a reasonable cost within a few years. Without such measures, he warned, "it would take years of consistent rain" to return Lake Michigan and Lake Huron to normal."

The abc article says; 

Fast forward six years later to 2019; https://www.nrdc.org/stories/great-lakes-levels-are-rising-sign-things-come

Here are some quotes from this article; "We could see even more dramatic swings in water levels thanks to climate change."

"But this year, after years of wetter-than-normal conditions, six rainfall events in May sent lake levels surging across the Great Lakes Basin. That pattern is consistent with climate change models that predict midwestern rainstorms dropping more water over shorter time frames than in the past. Warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which can lead to more severe storms, and such events continued to drench the region throughout this past summer and fall.

Rising lake levels are just part of the story, though. A warming climate can also lead to sudden dips in water levels. In 2013, Lakes Michigan and Huron hit https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/02/06/lake-michigan-lake-huron-record-low-levels-drought/1896603/, and the others were well below average due to lower-than-normal rainfall and higher air temperatures that lead to more evaporation, two more consequences of climate change."

SO MUCH FOR DREDGING BEING A PROBLEM. SO MUCH FOR SPEED BUMPS. IT'S CLIMATE CHANGE PEOPLE!!!!!

There was an article in The Detroit News awhile back about the Great Lakes water levels. In the comment section a person wrote; I've lived on the Great Lakes shoreline for 60 years and never has it been this bad, it's climate change!

Or is it?

Let's look at those Great Lakes water levels since 1918 when they started recording them;

https://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/GLBasinConditions/LTA-GLWL-Graph.pdf

Looking at Lake Michigan/Huron, I sure as hell cannot see any dramatic changes caused by climate change!! Looks like several years of calm between 2000-2011 and then same swings I see in the past. 

Going back to the nrdc.org article in previous post; Low temperatures can have consequences, too. The polar vortex events that have gripped the Midwest in recent years supercool the lakes. Caused by a wobbling stream of Arctic air that dips to lower latitudes as the pole warms and ice melts (again, thanks to climate change), these frigid weather patterns reduce evaporation, effectively freezing lake levels for the season.

Now let's look at historical ice coverages; https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/Superior.png 

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/Michigan.png 

Nope, no excessive freeze overs.

Looking at historical data seems to refute all the hysteria that climate change or dredgings have caused Great Lakes fluctuations. Appears folks are using these natural changes to boolster their naratives. And, "if they say it enough, it becomes truth in most minds".

That brings me to climate change, cause and effect, and remedies. Just like the Great Lakes there are knee-jerk reactions like "speed bumps", polar votex's freezing over the lakes, etc.

If you google; earth's yearly average temperature graph you will see several graphs all starting in the lower left and rising to the upper right! OMG!!!

Then take a look at the time period, 1850-2020. Why only that far back???

Now look at this comprehensive graph; http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm    A graph from 2200 B.C. to projected 2040.

Notice that sun activity and volcano activity have a huge influence of planet temps. We are now entering a solar minimum; 

https://www.whatsorb.com/news/global-warming-by-co2-or-cooling-by-a-grand-solar-minimum?gclid=CjwKCAjwgZuDBhBTEiwAXNofRFNe-jJdn5rmgOu3ONtEf3X3Ogw9xvE3CSRrXLuoTlHqwhRFzakaUBoCSOIQAvD_BwE

So for all of our follies of "going green" the earth will do and go where it wants to go. We are just taking the ride. 

Okay. Glad I got through all four posts before responding. 

@Raiders22

 Sorta like you on the Chauvin trial. LOL

It's long and full of links for sure. Wanted to get my point across. Seems like overreaction is the human thing to do. Great Lakes drop and everybody has a reason, an answer. Then Great Lakes go up and again, everybody has a reason. Always a narrow minded view. No long term study.

Climate warms up and everybody has the reason, the answer. What if climate goes down? More CO2???

Bill Gates wants to seed the upper atmosphere with a chemical dust to "dim the sun". https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a35938287/bill-gates-solar-geoengineering-block-sunlight-research/

So what happens when volcanoes erupt after he dusts the atmosphere? Nuclear winter??? 

@UNIMAN

 Haha!  No.  I meant I initially thought you had bought all into the climate change thing.  Then read the last post. 

Plus, I like good links with decent information.

Climate change increases the risk of more extreme weather varying water levels of great lakes year to year.  Polls show most people agree governments should do more to adapt and fight climate change.  However current global warming isn't caused by natural cycles as in the past.  In recent centuries, sun shows a cooling trend during global warming.  95% of top climate scientists agree that the most plausible cause is man-made greenhouse gases trapping heat.   Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are 90 times greater than from volcanoes. 

Scientists mark the start of modern global record keeping at 1880 because earlier data doesn't cover enough of the planet to get an accurate reading according to NASA.  Still much can be estimated from ancient evidences in ice cores, tree rings or layers of rocks.  For 800,000 years, atmospheric carbon dioxide level remains under 300 parts per million until recent centuries when levels skyrocket to create greenhouse effect.

I would revisit the last thread about this sort of thing, where all of this has already been debunked and methodically dismantled.

I am not sure what you are referring to.

Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron and Erie water levels have dropped in the past year, but still significantly higher than the long-term average. Lake Ontario has dropped below the long-term average.

The graphs below show the water level forecasts for the next six months. The green dot is the most likely water level. The red line is the current water level, and the blue line is last year’s record or near-record water levels. The purple dot is the long-term average water level for that month.

Source. https://www.mlive.com/weather/2021/04/dry-winter-impacted-great-lakes-water-levels-lakes-michigan-huron-down-almost-one-foot.html

But a series of damn is not the answer unless they are owned by a utility and apart of hydro gang series.

So many damn have become dangerously unsafe and holding back 4 feet of water in those two lakes can have devastating consequences when the structure fails.

@thirdperson; first of all, thank you for posting 

"Climate change increases the risk of more extreme weather varying water levels of great lakes year to year. "

Fact or hyposesis? If fact, please provide proof. Just saying so doesn't make it so. Saying "experts say so" not an answer. Global warming trend really took off in 1980's (hmm, that's when China's industries took off, hmmm) The Great Lakes were the steadiest (levels) in the last 100 years from 2000-2013, the recent low in 2014 and then high in 2020 looks ohhh so similar to 1964-1972, and 1926-1932 looks even more volitile than any period recorded.

Polls show most people agree governments should do more to adapt and fight climate change.  Fighting climate change like controlling COVID, drugs on the street, gun violence. Govt. can't do it. WHOLE WORLD would need to buy-in. Not happening. Cities are heat sinks, never mind that.

"However current global warming isn't caused by natural cycles as in the past.  In recent centuries, sun shows a cooling trend during global warming. "

I agree, the sun is not warming or fueling the rising temps, all evidence points to carbon in the atmosphere.

Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are 90 times greater than from volcanoes. 

No arguement here. Volcanoes emit dust and sulfur dioxide that "dims the sun" and cools the earth. That's my point. And scientists say when the sun goes through it's "solar minimum" volcanic activity appears to be greater. Here's a quote off of Google; 

"Solar activity governs the volcanic activity on the Earth in long-term scale. Volcanic activity is usually higher in periods of prolonged minima of solar activity and vice versa. However, the mechanism of this forcing is not known."

We just entered a solar minimum, any volcanoes erupting??

So we can go "hell-bent" on stopping CO2 emissions before the end of world and then mother nature blows some volcanoes and we are now battling nuclear winters!

YES, human activity is affecting the earth, climate, pollution, etc. YES, we can try an about face to stop CO2 emmissions (will China?? they say "sure we will", you go first. We'll come along in say.....10 years from now) Meanwhile China builds more coal fired power plants.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-chinas-march-to-net-zero-emissions-means-for-the-world/#:~:text=Chinese%20carbon%2Ddioxide%20emissions%20could%20peak%20around%202025&text=By%202035%2C%20he%20predicted%2C%20China,to%20carbon%20neutrality%20by%202060.

Just like the Great Lakes where dredging was the cause of low levels! Need speed bumps in the St Clair River!! Climate change will dry up the Great Lakes!! Climate Change is causing levels to go up and down when historical graphs show levels behaving as they always had. The same thing is happening over climate change over a window of 40 years on a 4.543 billion year old planet. 

I say keep migrating towards less CO2 but don't go crazy. Green our heat sink cities. Put money into research for COST EFFECTIVE geener ways. DO NOT hurt our citizens and our economy while other countries (China) fail to contribute. Get hard on China!!! We breath their pollution! Same with all countries, Mexico, India, etc.

I agree, the sun is not warming or fueling the rising temps, all evidence points to carbon in the atmosphere

Really?  Even when there is evidence the levels of CO2 lag the temperature rises?

i would read up more on this from various sources. 

For example:

Long-term geological data show a pretty consistent correlation between CO2 and temperature, giving the claim its initial attractiveness.

But there’s a problem. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the time sequence is opposite what the claim requires.

That’s been shown by a variety of studies in the past, including Cornwall Alliance Senior Fellow David Legates’s review article “Carbon Dioxide and Air Temperature: Who Leads and Who Follows?” Two-and-a-half years ago geologist Euan Mearns contributed “The Vostok Ice Core: Temperature, CO2, and CH4.”

Now Mearns has followed up with “The Vostok Ice Core and the 14,000 Year CO2 Time Lag,” which makes the case more strongly than ever.

Every argument denying global warming  has been debunked by scientists before.  Fiction is that CO2 lags temperature today.  Before industrial age, temperature warms first before higher CO2.  Time lag occurs when warming oceans release CO2 which raise temperature later.  But in post industrial age, human activity is the main driver of CO2 emissions.  So 90% of global warming follow CO2 increase.  Foolish to consider that the natural cycle has any bearing on what is happening today.

Controversial David Legate has ties to Heartland institute funded by fossil fuel industry.  His views run counter to scientific mainstream and have been contradicted by numerous peer reviewed studies.  American geophysical union opposes Trump's appointment of Legate to National oceanic and atmospheric administration.   Euan Mearns findings are really nothing profound and don't change scientific consensus. .

The discussion always goes in the same direction, one side thinks it has impact and we need to think of further than right in front of our face that the consequences will not be reversible if we wait until the whole world implodes, the other side thinks that the world is not imploding and thus it is not ever going to be an issue. Its maddening the short vs long thinking and that cost is unwarranted unless you are literally on fire right now.

Of course chemicals influence temps and of course excess population puts a strain on the resources and limits the planet can absorb and handle. Talking about history from a trillion years ago and how the earth ebbs and flows with climate is a pretty stupid approach. The parameters are not the same, the strain on resources and the impact of our pollution are not the same.

For me its not a question, we are on the track of destroying the planet and have been for a hundred years, does that mean that today or tomorrow that we are not on level 5 alert? I dont know but that to me does not mean we do nothing because there is a cost and sacrifice for that and it might mean that our cheap goods and services cost a little more. Its crazy the way a large segment of the population thinks.

For example?  Show the studies that show it as a leading indicator.  I have shown you many times the various studies indicating the opposite. 

No big deal who funds the experts.  If the science is there, it is there.  Of course, the experts on the other side have an agenda as well.

Again, for the 100th time, no one is arguing against a cleaner planet.  But to lay every 'bad' thing at the feet of carbon-driven global-warming at the risk of regression is not sound science-based logic.

But but but......Bill Gates is going to to "Dim The Sun." project.

The earth CAN be saved by the Gates foundation! He has complete control of our solar system, don't you know??? We're going to be ok.

"Humans will destroy the planet"

Uhhhhhhh.... no, no they won't. They'll obliterate their own species and many others as they've done many times before but the planet will be just fine. 

C'mon Wallstreet, history of life on earth has been well documented. Let's not get carried away. The climate data (NOAA) identifies extreme cooling in many other regions of the planet. 

Pete Budigig, the former mayor of South Bend Indiana declared "Global Warming" as the #1 threat to National Security.  

Learn from top experts instead of lobbyists working for fossil fuel industry.  Good source of climate science information is available from NASA.  Only a minority of people are ignorant about global warming.  Under Biden, US joins 197 countries in Paris accord to fight climate change.  For 95% of climate scientists, there is no longer any debate because of overwhelming evidences worldwide.

Non-experts don't understand global warming increases the risk of extreme weather conditions.  First, increase in rate of evapotransportation affect frequency and intensity of droughts.  Secondly, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water.  This increases the risk of extreme rainfall.  Third, changes in sea-surface temperatures affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation such as in droughts.

https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies

Methane is the primary gas for warming cycles.

It is a battle to keep solid frozen methane trapped beneath the tundra and at the polls.

This shift is within a few degrees as solid methane stores safely is about neg 50 c.

If it thaws liquid is a short nano second to release. This methane was held in ice for 20,000 years trapped with the vegetation and mamouths of that period. 

If it is warm enough to release this gas then indeed the temperature and atmospheric conditions will greatly diverse from what they are now. Carbon dioxide is the battle of inches but methane will be the fame changer in climate extremes acceleration and poisoning of the at.biosphere. 

Deniers of man-made global warming have only proven to be wrong.  Still waiting for deniers to disprove climate science.  They should learn from top scientists instead of lobbyists from fossil fuel industry.  Easy to find online plenty of scientific evidences supporting greenhouse effect from burning of fossil fuel.  NASA and Royal society are good sources of information on climate science.  But for science deniers, no evidence is good enough to convince them of something they don't want to believe.

Either provide the links I asked to be discussed or debated or give up.  You cannot just keep putting the same random stuff in here about 'science deniers'.  It does not add to the discussion.

Give pertinent and empirical links.

You never answered the underlined question. Which is what I usually get unfortunatley. I look at ALL data, not handpicked charts and graphs for ONE side of the story.

Never denied global warming is real and humans are the main cause. Can't understand WHY people have the notion your ALL IN (believer) or ALL OUT (denier), cannot ever be an inbetween. Does anyone have independent thought anymore??

I have read that climate change increases the risk of changing lake levels, AND, that it has been responsible for the recent changes. So I, (ME) looked at the historical data and conclude that's NOT the case. MY conclusion, not the New York Times, Washington Post, Huff Post, or Daily Beast. Doesn't make climate warming anyless real.

Interesting that CO2 lagged behind temp rise, so what caused temp rise in the first place? The one I don't like about these studies is that it seems CO2 and CH4 are being looked at yet other temp changing contributors are being ignored. What about volcanic activity during those periods? Sulfur Dioxide? Always seem to be a narrow view.