Posted:
#1
I think this is a skill that everyone could benefit from, but one which is obviously incredibly difficult.
For the most part, I cap games early and have a pretty good idea of who I will be on the day before the actual game. So I have lots of time to shop and get the best available line. However, as most people, I have a lot of trouble predicting whether the line will move against me or in my favour.
I've been tracking the movement on the games I play and it seems pretty split. At this point, it looks like it is slightly to my advantage to play games as early as I can. I imagine this is because I play mostly dogs and the majority of dog lines get more attractive the longer the market is open, however, I don't have stats to back that up, that's just my impression. With that being said, I would ideally like to be able to try to predict which games will move in which direction, and I can't say I've found any sort of pattern yet which would allow me to predict this with much more than 50% accuracy. Is it just a "feel" thing which you get better at over time? Or do people actually have methods for "capping" line movements?
All thoughts are welcome, as long as they are at least somewhat educated.
For the most part, I cap games early and have a pretty good idea of who I will be on the day before the actual game. So I have lots of time to shop and get the best available line. However, as most people, I have a lot of trouble predicting whether the line will move against me or in my favour.
I've been tracking the movement on the games I play and it seems pretty split. At this point, it looks like it is slightly to my advantage to play games as early as I can. I imagine this is because I play mostly dogs and the majority of dog lines get more attractive the longer the market is open, however, I don't have stats to back that up, that's just my impression. With that being said, I would ideally like to be able to try to predict which games will move in which direction, and I can't say I've found any sort of pattern yet which would allow me to predict this with much more than 50% accuracy. Is it just a "feel" thing which you get better at over time? Or do people actually have methods for "capping" line movements?
All thoughts are welcome, as long as they are at least somewhat educated.
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