Belmont Stakes--Analysis and Picks

b.o.l   

GL Mikey, excellent analysis as usual.

Which bet do you like better? They each cost the same.

1,2,9 Exacta Box

Great read as always Mike. Hope all is well. 

1 2 9 box and hope the 2 comes in 3rd or worse. Good luck

Nice read.

Good luck Kursch

Good read.

If I print that out and read it to the horseman bet taker dude, will he know what to do?

I dunno chit about horse betting.

Great write up as usual mikey.

Joel Rosario gives the very best ride today
and over the past 5 years

CONGRATS to all of you who backed Tonalist and Commissioner. Great race.

As I feared, Albarado had a horrible ride on Medal Count. At least twice he could have grabbed the lead and jus sat there!

I thought Wicked Strong would show better than he did. Oh well.

On to the Travers!

damnit!!! i was sooooo close to swapping wicked strong for tonalist. still had 4 outta the top 5, but didn't have the winner.

if i listen to my gut, i'm 3400 smackaroos richer... this one hurts.

NIT....please don't beat yourself over this. I do play "coulda, shoulda woulda" every time I go to the track. In fact, did it twice today playing AP races.

Just keep tryng to get better and learn from it. Good Luck

thanks for the encouragement mikey, and also for taking the time out to talk shop with a part-time player.

you're a class act!

maybe ill come outta my shell and hit you up for advice on the travers!

have a good one my brutha.

nice of you to say, NIT. When this forum is working right, it's about all of us helping each other. Keep it going!

WOW...what a stat. I went back and looked at my post for a factoid I read and posted:

 The 4 top finishers, less Chrme, fit this stat.....

"Commissioner has the highest combined average winning distance rating when combining the sire and dam’s average winning distances followed by Metal Count, Matterhorn wicked Strong and Tonalist."

We need to remember this for next year

 

Here is where I think Steve Coburn is wrong:

What makes the Triple Crown soooo special and one of the ultimate challenges in all of sports is exactly the reasons Coburn sighted as being "cowardly."

1) Three-year old horses must make the difficult transition from being an immature 2-year old to becoming a mature 3-year old. There is a reason that a horse that wasn't raced as a two-year old hasn't won the KY Derby since Apollo in 1882! 

2) A 3-year old horse must compete in a number of highly competitive Derby prepsraces against the best of his/her generation.

2) The horse must earn enough points to make it to the KY Derby field. With as many as 450 horses nominated for the Triple Crown, being in the Top 20 is a tremendous accomplishment.

3) The horse needs to WIN the KY Derby in a field of 18-20 horses; likely a size that they have never been part of nor will ever again be part of.

4) They need to win the KY Derby running through a hail of bullets along with some horses who are still learning to race getting slammed, bumping and grinding their way through to the finish line.

5) They are racing at 1-1/4 miles, an extraordinary distance for a young horse...it's like running a 15-year old kid running a10K for the first time.

6) The cut back to 1-3/16 in the Preakness.....Some are bred to go 1-1/16, just short; others are bred for greater distances with not enough out of the gate speed to get into a position to win at 1-3/16. It is one really tricky distance.

7) Then, the ultimate challenge, 1-1/2 miles in the Belmont against the best of the best 3-year olds (who are left standing).

8) The challenge is exasperated by running against well-rested horses like Tonalist.

AND THAT IS WHY the Triple Crown is so special. It is the ultimate challenge foe any horse, let alone a young 3-year old.

 

 

                    mikey...   coburn   relatively new at this.. just dont understand.   shermans and other connections were gracious in defeat..  a hypothetical...   i own a horse and have won a few big 3yrold races,,  maybe  fla derby and maybe something in arkansas.  i get lucky and win the derby...   the breeding future, the purse itself and eveything else tied to it...   horse is doing well  but i choose to go to belmont   instead of baltimore.     i dont care about triple crown.  my horse has 5 weeks off and hes healthy as hell.     now shut up coburn.. its my horse   i do what i want with it .  not what you want me to do.  just had to say that  being a horse  player and fan for 40 plus years.....

Mikey thanks for all the info you gave us and taking the extra time to post on here. Always look forward to what you have to say!

 

thank you....good luck