Belmont Stakes--Analysis and Picks

Let’s start by reminding ourselves of some interesting historical facts about the Belmont, according the Daily Racing Form:

·         California Chrome seeks to be the first horse to win the Triple Crown, who has never previously raced at Belmont.

·         In the last 12 years, just one horse has won the Belmont after running in both the Derby and Preakness with 6 horses during that time that by-passed Baltimore, but ran in L’vlle, having won the Belmont.

·         Since 2000, 12 of 14 who have won the Belmont did not run in the Preakness.

·         Wicked Strong, Metal Count, Commanding Curve and Samraat fit the Derby, skip the Preakness profile.

·         Ride on Curlin, California Chrome and aRod have raced in the first two legs of the TC.

·          Two horses have wired the field since 1984. Da Tara was the last one to do it in 2008.

Other factoids:

·         Commissioner has the highest combined average winning distance rating when combining the sire and dam’s average winning distances followed by Metal Count, Matterhorn wicked Strong and Tonalist.

·         CC and Wicked Strong are the only Grade 1 winners in the field.

·         Since 2000, the average winning payoff is $28.00.

·         While Chrome’s Derby time was the slowest in 40 years, his Preakness was the fastest since the great Curlin’s 2007 race.

·         Too bad there is not a bet on who is likely get scratched out of the gate first for bad behavior: Commissioner or Matterhorn. Social Inclusions out of the gate scratch odds might have been 2-5.

·         Commissioner has the blood of 4 Belmont champs: AP Indy, Touch Gold, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat.

 more in a while......

Next to the Derby, this is by far my favorite race each year. Now, what we started tracking 8 or 9 months ago, ends with a dance toward immortality.

I am very pleased with the tremendous interest in the Big Horse and his chances for winning the Triple Crown. In the past 36 years, few horses have truly had as good of a chance to win this race as California Chrome.

However, I have visions of Birdstone, Victory Gallop and others swarming in my cabeza; those who have measured the would-be Triple Crown winners and rallied to victory at the end. As much as I want a Triple Crown winner— especially for these owners and the trainer--after analyzing this race several ways, I will play against California Chrome.

So who’s going to beat him?

Let’s start with the ones that can close: Commissioner, Wicked Strong, Matterhorn, Commanding Curve, Ride On Curlin and Medal Count.

#8 Commissioner…….He's probably got the best up and down breeding to close this race by tracking down California Chrome. He certainly could win, but I just cannot believe in this horse. Sure, he has Todd and Castellano, a huge combo. But he finds trouble almost every time out either in the gate or out of the gate. His breeding is loaded with past champs on both sides, and that’s big-time; and he ran second here in the Peter Pan. I’ll give him a piece, but I just can’t see a win.

#4 Commanding Curve…..He’s an excellent closer and he fits the “didn't run in the Preakness” profile. His Derby was excellent coming from 18 back, but he passed a bevy of dead ones, as well as two that had really bad trips, Samraat and Medal Count.  I think he’ll run strong and can very much capture a nice piece, but I don’t think he’s fast enough, late kick and all, to win.

#5 Ride on Curlin….He ran a decent Derby after one of the dummest rides in our lifetimes; and he had a stellar Preakness with Joel, whom he loses in favor of Velazquez. His challenge to Chrome at the end of the Preakness quickly making up nearly 4 lengths at the end before losing by less than 2 was excellent. However, that last quarter was quick and he looked as if he was starting to weaken, which doesn’t bode well for the distance. Out of Curlin, he is a natural for this track, as his Champagne at age 2 showed. You have to love Johnny V handling the chores and he’ll be battling in the final quarter for sure.

#7 Samraat…..I keep hoping this guy could go 1-1/2 miles, and I was gaga about his chances,until I did the research. His Indian Charlie bottom makes it real hard for me to think that he can go the distance. My guess is that Samraat is going to try to steal it, but at something sort of reasonable, like .24 and tight change. With little upfront speed in this race, it’s a possibility that he can run and hide, but veryyyyyy doubtful. Remember that only two have won on the front end in the last 30 years. Maybe a sliver?

#11 Tonalist….He will likely move toward the front, and if he and Samraat decide to get into the pee pee contest early, they’ll both come up swallowing their tongues by the ¾ pole. However, this horse has done nothing wrong; improving with class and with a top trainer and Rosario in the pouch. Tonalist won the Pan here with a 103 Beyer, but take note: that was a short field of 7 entrants in major slop and with a fractious Commissioner in tow. He’s beaten a game Global Strike and finished second to Constitution, and those are pretty nice notes on his resume. However, he hasn’t faced the Big Horse and the likes of the other CC, Wicked, MC, RoC, all top dogs. Yes, I will consider for exotics, but don’t let his New York hype cause you to break out your First Holy Communion money.

#10 General aRod…..I am really starting to hate this horse with the same passion I hated Artie Schiller, who ended up winning a Breeders’ Cup race just to stick it to me. I think his Preakness proved that the 1-3/16 distance was too long for him, so what’s he doing running a cross country affair? Whack job trainer; whack job owners? MeThinks so.  Why is he here when he could have challenged Social Inclusion in the 7F Woody Stephens?

#2 California Chrome….My only question is, ‘Can he get the distance?’ Yes, but I think my two top picks are ready to run him down after his 3 grueling runs in 5 weeks about to take its toll. Too bad. He is a great horse and all indications from the owners are that we’ll get to enjoy him at least the rest of this year and maybe beyond.

#1 Medal Count….I came this-close to picking this son of Dynaformer to win this, but I cannot pull the trigger for one reason...…Albarado. I cannot trust his judgment, especially at this challenging track. He does stupid things in big races and why Romans keeps putting Robbie on his mounts in marquee spots, I don’t know. That said, the horse ran a great Derby getting slammed time and again. However, was it the jockey who put him in harm’s way? Medal might be the most improving of all of these, so on that count, I must consider for a major piece despite the pilot.

#9 Wicked Strong….After the Derby, I thought he would be the one to beat in the Belmont. I still think he might be that guy. I like his post. It might help him to stay out of early trouble. I know a lot of guys don’t like Raj in the saddle, but the guy is good in NY and he and Jimmy Jerkins are a pair of Big Apples—31% together in 29 races. Pound-for-pound, I think Maragh is one of the best. I see him measuring the field coming from several lengths back, and then blowing it out.

My Picks:

#9 Wicked Strong to win and place

$20 exacta straight: 9/1

$15 exacta straight 1/9

$12 exacta straight 9/2

$8 exacta straight: 2/9

$6 exacta: 9/4,5,8,11

$3 tri wheel: 9/1,2,4,5,8,11/1,2,4,5,7,8,11

$1 tri wheel: 1,2/1,2,4,5,8,9,11/1,2,4,5,7,8,9,11

Good luck to all. See you before the Travers in August

Have the same horses as you Mikey, except for primarily CC on top.

Commisioner is the wise guy horse for sure.

Early betting has Wicked as the 3rd choice. He's my choice to win if it isn't CC.

CRUSH....Good luck. Always love to hear the difference of opinions because it forces us to think more about our handicapping.....and that's why they call it 'pari-mutuel' betting.

I think the 'love' for Wicked isn't because he's some great horses, etc. In my mind, he has the style to run down the champ and win it.

bmiller....I am in the middle of capping this massive Belmont card.

I am stunned by the talent today in Elmont.

Pick 3; Races 9,10,11 at Belmont:

Oyoyoyoyoyoyoy! What a card!!!

1,5,9/4,6/1,2,9

The potential for not a helluva lot of value

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Best of luck today buddy  Great piece of work - Enjoyed reading it very much. 

thanks sir. Go gettem' today

NIT....I am with you on your 5.

You might want to consider spending a few extra bucks to add Tonalist, RoC to your wheel and maybe even Samraat, who I have for part just because he looks like he might be able to stick if some of the closers don't close. I am also starting to think Samraat might get a decent price, as will RoC.

Regarding your question of replacing any of the 5, I don't think I'd replace RoC and Tonalist with any of your picks.

For me, after Chrome, Wicked and Medal, the underneath might be a knife fight, so anything can happen.

Good luck today!

Vet....MC could be Drosslymeyer. Albarado pains me.

Potawatomie?