Breeders Cup

Breeders Cup

Not been on these forums for a very long time. Last time I was on, Gamehunter kindly provided some POVs from the American side. Dunno if he’s still around but good luck to him! Won’t be touching dirt races at all given the meeting is at Churchill Downs where the dirt track is still the same as always rather then the Pro-Ride surface. However there’s no way I’m missing out on a bet in the Classic! No offence but gotta smile at the 5.20 race called the “marathon”. Over in the UK and France we have the Prix du Cadran and Ascot Gold Cup! Youtube those races and they are raced over 2m 4f! Better still, something better than the Flat. Youtube Grand National and Cheltenham Gold Cup! Now THOSE races are proper marathons! Best of luck to everyone!

Friday

10.50 Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares Turf

Stacelita is a horse known to US racing fans as she has been racing in the US and her form in Europe last year suggest that as useful as she is, she’s not quite the same level of a Zarkava or Zenyatta. Given her dominance in recent races over the likes of Fantasia who was not a Group 2/1 performer for John Gosden it is logical to deduce that the winner will most likely be European.

Using Stacelita as a yardstick, the likes of Nahrain, Announce and Misty for Me must come to the fore of my thinking. To dismiss Stacelita would be churlish but to my eye the other European raiders all have equal or superior form to Stacelita. Yes Stacelita has the advantage of being fully acclimated to the conditions in the US. She also has VERY useful form links with her fellow raiders.

Misty for Me is interesting as she had excellent two year old form but looks to be un-rated by her own stable judging by the prices she has been allowed to go off. For US racing fans, comparisons can be made with Together who ran a few weeks ago finishing second on her debut before following up with a win in the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland. Put simply, Misty For Me in my view is probably better having defeated Together a few times whilst achieving a career high OR of 120 (Together is 113) BUT Together finished ahead of Misty For Me in her last start. She beat Midday in Ireland in the summer but had the run of the race that day and there is a suspicion softer going would suit MFM. All in all, she promises to be better suited by the distance of 1m 3f then when beaten over a mile but the big problem is her outside draw.

Nahrain and Announce are closely matched on their running in the Prix De L’Opera and whilst that was indeed a Group 1 race, it was a weak renewal given the proximity of good yardstick Banimpire to the protagonists of that race. But still she won well in a quick time and appear to have the tactical speed to take a hand in this.

Announce is a big danger having gone down a nose to Nahrain and I’m finding it hard to split the pair. Both are each way bets to nothing in my view at ¼ the odds and whilst Announce is the bigger price (5/1 vs 4/1), Nahrain’s untapped potential (just 4 runs) leads me to lean towards her at this early stage.

For me, it’s the Europeans I’m focusing on and in order I have them as:

Nahrain/Announce

Stacelita

Misty For Me

Nahrain 4/1 2pt EW

Saturday

8.45 Breeders Cup Turf

An interesting race with Europeans holding the edge as is the norm with turf races thus my focus is on those raiders. Of the 5 raiders, it’s a tight group with plenty of literal form knitting the quintuplet.

Await the Dawn’s form doesn’t look quite good enough though the hype from Ballydoyle suggest he is one of the top horses from that yard. However if that was the case, why send St Nicholas Abbey too? The problem for me is in comparison to Sarafina and even his stablemate, his form does not look as strong as those two. He’s beaten nothing of note (albeit impressively) and his last run, he was reported to have nearly lost his life finishing third to the Henry Cecil duo of Twice Over and Midday in a weak looking renewal of the Juddmonte International. Supposedly he is in the turf rather then the classic (despite his breeding suggesting the Classic will suit better) on account on it being the easier race but as with Ballydoyle, we simply will never know what’s factual and what is hyperbole designed to enhance stud value. I’m inclined to respect his chances but at the end of the day, his form does not look good enough.

St.Nicholas Abbey is a stoutly bred horse with stamina to burn but the small field and tight track won’t be to his strengths even if he has won at Chester and Epsom. He’s also ridden by the trainer’s son and that has to be a negative. There are others that has stronger claims.

The other colt in the field is Sea Moon who was visually impressive in his trial for the St. Leger BUT his overall form suggest nothing better then Group 3 level and I cannot understand why he is short in the betting. We’ll soon know whether my judgement or the bookies is spot on and I rate him the weakest chance of all overseas raiders.

Moving on to the fillies. Midday is a top class mare on her day BUT against the colts she’s been exposed at the highest level of racing as not quite good enough. Whilst this field doesn’t look strong, she’s probably better over 10 furlongs then the 12 furlongs she races over here. On a line through fellow mare Snow Fairy she has every chance but I’m not a fan of her jockey and she’ll need a fair few things to drop right for her to win. For a start she’ll need to settle better and be produced for a run a shade longer then so far. However despite reservations about her jockey she does have a better chance in my view then Sea Moon and the Ballydoyle duo.

Finally, the chosen one; Sarafina. French trained and with no obvious front runner in the field, her potent turn of foot in the style of the Andre Fabre trained Banks Hill could prove the decisive factor. She has good form lines with Midday and St. Nicholas Abbey but of the 5 raiders, she is the one who looks to have the requisite class to take the race. Heavily backed for the Arc, she wasn’t well drawned but still ran well finishing 7^th behind St. Nicholas Abbey.

Whilst I still rue Bekhabad’s flop last year in this race, I still think she is great EW bet to nothing with every chance of winning or at the least finishing in the top 3 providing all runners line up.

Sarafina 7/2 3pt EW

10.07 Breeders Cup Mile

Had a preliminary look on the forum a few days ago with Roused quite vocal in opposing Goldikova with Gio Ponti. However whilst I agree that Goldikova is worth opposing as she is on the decline at the age of 6, the question is why should the likes of Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat who are not improving horses be able to beat her? Gio Ponti is not a true Group/Grade One horse in my view looking on a global scale.

Yes he's useful but for me, he is a few good pounds short of Goldikova's class. The way he's ridden also has to be factored in given he already finishes very well at 10f races. Typically held up and brought home strongly in the closing stages of the race. Over 10F he's not quite gotten there quick enough and really, rather then step up in trip, why step down especially over a track that will not test stamina? So what makes connections think he could be ridden even quicker over a shorter distance against Goldikova?

I think it's obvious European horses have the beating of US horses on turf and polytrack or what you guys call pro-ride bar the sprint races. Sarah Lynx's superiority in the Canadian International only serves to underline that POV. Horses like Sarah Lynx, Stacelita, Joshua Tree, Redwood, Treasure Beach, Cape Blanco and Together are not the best of the European horses but have still acquitted themselves very well in the US.

I'd love for Goldikova to win BUT there has been 4 other milers (Frankel-I would advise you to watch his 2000 Guineas win on youtube J ), Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, Immortal Verse) in Europe with Strong Suit having a good enough line through them to suggest he has a very good chance of beating Goldikova. He's a smart improving colt and the tight turning track should play to his strengths. However since my initial analysis he’s been drawn out wide and that’s a big no no on a tight turning track like Churchill Downs.

As above, I’m not too enamoured with Gio Ponti’s chances or the other US horses and the other two alternatives to Goldikova are Zoffany and Byword. Byword is most certainly not amongst Europe’s top milers and has a bit to find with Goldikova on his French form. Zoffany is interesting on bits of his earlier form but looks a horse with his own quirks flopping badly on his last two outings. How much can we trust Zoffany?

On form, Golidkova comes out on top. On ratings she also beats the field on paper. She’s fit, well and has proven herself yet is still available at 2/1. That price has obviously factored in decline but whilst I tend to look for a value bet, 2/1 is still a backable price and I may be overthinking things here thus the play is to keep it simple and back the best horse in the race at an acceptable price of 2/1.

Goldikova 2/1 3pt win

11.00 Breeders Cup Classic

This looks to be between Uncle Mo and Havre De Grace BUT the draw has not been kind to either of the market leaders. So You Think is a big danger BUT only Raven’s Pass has made the successful transition from turf to dirt in the Classic and his “dirt” win was actually on Pro-Ride. Giant’s Causeway (my favourite horse!) and Henrythenavigator went close for Aiden O’Brien whilst Swain famously jumped a shadow behind Awesome Again and Silver Charm in 1998 (I think) having loomed ominously in the straight.

Certainly So You Think is capable of winning but I can’t help but think the Turf would’ve been a better option for him. Bearing in mind that Coolmore (SYT owners) has also brought a share in Uncle Mo, that doesn’t inspire confidence. A lot of hype on SYT and whilst he has a good draw, 5/1 is not a good price for one who must prove he can tread where others have failed in making the transition from turf to dirt. Dakota Phone gives SYT backers hope but really, at 5/1 that’s a pass. I’ll be taking a look at the US prices but I’d want at least 8/1 for an EW bet before I consider backing SYT.

Of the other contenders, Flat Out is interesting on his earlier form with Havre De Grace and whilst it’s probably laziness on my part, the three to concentrate are the market leaders plus Flat Out.

I really should leave this race alone but going in on the mare.

Havre De Grace 9/2 1.5pt EW

Scary card! Small but certainly no interest in sprint, 2 yo or dirt races! (apart from the big one!) Just struck me I’m looking to back 4 fillies! :o

GL!

Looking at the Marathon now. Quite keen on Meeznah who looks the best horse in the race along with Brigantin but question of how they handle the dirt. Also looking at another angle that form expert Nick Mordin theorizes about; that dirt surfaces are more stamina sapping then turf so may lean towards Brigantin who will stay for sure BUT it's a question of how he handles the surface.

Meeznah is a US bred and should go on the surface in theory. The fact she also like firm ground is a big plus too. Gun to my head at this stage; I’d be inclined to go Meeznah and perhaps an exacta on her and Brigantin as both stays for sure. I just need convincing that she could stay the trip no problem. On turf I’d be confident but dirt is a big unknown and a surface most like dirt in the UK is Southwell BUT the problem is Southwell’s Fibresand surface tend to suit soft ground horses thus compromising the chances of Meeznah and enhancing the chances of Brigantin if I choose to go with that particular thread.

Who knows? A long way to go and I’m sure I’ll have plenty of thoughts in the run up to Super Saturday!

GL

what's your take on Byword he could be 7/1 or higher here?  he's 7/14 lifetime and it looks to me like they have been aiming for this one all year.  i can see that more distance is prolly better for him but he could be rolling late with a lot of energy.  that race two back he won at a mile (granted a G3) but he was "under wraps late" and then last out he got out front and held on at 1 3/16 miles and ran a 121 Racing post Rating.  Goldi drilled him in May but he also went right with her last year and also beat Twice Over and just missed versus Rip Van Winkle.  7/14 lifetime maybe he has a big one in him?

BGrimm101- It's what the forum's for. Turf races I know but stuck on dirt. Hoping I can make a judgement from information gleamed on here to have a punt rather then sit it out.

VetDrm- I do have an interest in Kentucky Derby race but trying to learn the key pointers and simply a fun medium then anything serious. Even so 2 yo races are not really to my liking. I don't mind Irish 2yo races as O'Brien, Bolger, Oxx normally monopolises those races but in the UK it's pretty much wide open. Not a vintage year imo. Besides Dabarism and Camelot not many has caught the eye. To be fair, 2011 was always going to be tough after we’ve been spoiled by the likes of Frankel and Dream Ahead.

The dirt race is most certainly not on my radar even allowing for the presence of the O’Brien duo. Both have useful form in the UK with Crusade a Group 1 winner BUT throw in the eternal question of how both will transition from turf to dirt, it’s not straightforward. As US bred colts both SHOULD act on dirt but then again there’s a long history of horses supposedly bred for the surface who have failed. Good luck and closer to the day I’ll take a look at the big three.

Atlasshrugged- Byword for me just falls below the truly elite of group 1 horses. He’s useful for sure and would be a threat over 10F. In fact I would suggest that if there had been a Classic race on turf, that would’ve been his preference rather then the mile. The mile race run over Churchill Downs runs more like a 7F race by European standards and he has a few pounds to find with Goldikova on all known form, even allowing for the “decline” Goldikova has shown. In a way, he has a similar level of form to Gio Ponti though I do think Byword just shades it in terms of pace over that rival.

He does have a potent turn of foot but he doesn’t seem to have run to the same level of form as last year and would need to have improve his speed to catch Goldikova over a mile. It could be that the standard has gone up from last year as Twice Over and Rip Van Winkle (ignore the Ballydoyle hype) are certainly not great horses by Group 1 standards. Consider the Prince of Wales stakes won by Rewilding (from So You Think) this year and consider the renewal that Byword won from Twice Over. Therein lies the crux of my argument.

The problem for me in assessing Byword vs Goldikova is the level of greatness Goldikova has shown. She is certainly one of the greats for sure and deep in my mind, I know Goldikova is superior and am easily dismissive of his chances given the greatness Goldikova has displayed. I didn’t dismiss Strong Suit’s chances before the draw came out but that one is 3 years old and still improving whilst Byword has pretty much shown his hand. At 8/1 (Ladbrokes.com) Byword has a great chance for place money BUT I’ve chosen Zoffany as the alternative EW punt as his form behind Frankel in June is better then anything Byword has shown at a mile distance. One price discrepancy catches the eye and that is Strong Suit at 4/1 vs Byword at 8/1 or Zoffany at 20/1. If any bookies is offering a match bet, I can see the draw playing its part and would hope for cracking value in any match bet being offered against Strong Suit.

Yup, Goldikova is a living legend and can run any style at any pace but no value at 4/5ish to me being just a tad bit off of her best form.

Zoffany concerns me flopping miserably in his last two not sure about what to make of that.

Strong Suit - why has he only run a mile once in 9 starts?  when he did go a mile he got nipped late.  i could see him contributing to a hot clip up front banging heads with Sydney's Candy and Get Stormy with those two Americans fading in the final sixteenth.  Compliance Officer is in way, way over his head but he might try and get out there early as well.

leaning to this one being a big setup for a strong closing move by a few and just seeing who shows the strongest late speed which on paper I would rank in order as Goldi, Byword, Zoffany (if in form), Courageous, Gio, and Mr. C. 

GC, outstanding as always!

I agree with most of your turf analysis.  I think it will be a Erupean "tour de force" on the green all day.

I'm not so confident in the Euros chances in the Marathon.   I'm going to let their lack of dirt form beat me in this race.

Now let me contradict myself and say I give So You Think more of fighting chance.  I think this is a weaker class of American Horses than we are normally accustomed to in this race.  It appears SYT wants to sit somewhere off the speed and pounce truning for home.  That's the kind of move that wins 1 1/4 races at the Twin Spires.

GC, could you please continue to give updates on the prices you're seeing over there?

Vet, it's been too long!

Atlas- Goldikova is still on offer here at 2/1 in places. I'm not sure Strong Suit will be ridden that way. Connections said IF they got a good draw, they may look into making all but obviously they got drawn 11. I think the US price (if correct) of 4/5 is spot on and am a bit apprehensive why Goldikova is available at 2/1 here. She was 5/2 before the draw but despite Strong Suit being drawn out wide he's still 4/1. Bookies here generally don't make mistakes and I'm probably overthinking this angle but looks like they're keen to lay her. My problem is finding the horse to beat her.

I'm going to revisit Strong Suit but can anyone give me a reason why draw 11 is not a disadvantage?

There's two bookies with the inside line at Ballydoyle, Ladbrokes and PAddypower both go the shortest at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively with other bookies offering 20/1 about Zoffany. Perhaps not too much can be read into it but interesting nonetheless.

Strong Suit as a 2 yo ran predominantly over 6F and that's the way horses are trained here. If they are bred to get 12F then they'll normally race from 7F to 1m. Strong Suit is bred to get the mile BUT the speed he has shown in his career points to 7F being the optimum trip. He had a wind op in the spring and has come back from that strongly showing improvements to be rated 1lb ahead of Goldikova!

Holybull. for me I agree with SYT's chances but the eternal question, can he make the transition from turf to dirt? at 5/1 it's not a big enough price to tempt me into paying to find out!

No problem.. oddschecker.com has it all!

Just about gaining some form of clarity in my mind and ready to lock and load some bets at this early stage.

Place terms are ¼ the odds on 1,2,3

Friday

F & M Turf

Announce

Nahrain

Very tough to split as I’ve said before and in a reversal of selections, I’m going to go with Announce but instead of a sole selection, I’ve decided to launch a two pronged assault on the race with Announce as the main bet. Quite confident of both finishing in the top 3 for money back so it’s a question of who will deliver the win money.

Locked in:

2.5pt EW Announce 5/1 Skybet

1 pt EW Nahrain 4/1 Skybet

On the Day:

Going to play an Exacta with the duo

Juvenile Sprint

Shumoos

New one I’ve been looking at. Her debut run was quite brilliant and whilst she hasn’t replicated that run she does have similar conditions here for the first time since that debut. She’s looks built for sprinting and in my view, far too big at 16/1 to ignore for EW money.

Locked in:

0.5pt EW Shumoos 16/1 VCBet

On the Day:

May add another 0.5pt EW on the US tote if the public ignores her claims and allow her price to drift in excess of 20/1.

Saturday

Marathon

Brigantin

Was keen on this race until I found out it was on dirt! BUT looking at the European duo of Brigantin and Meeznah, you have to say Brigantin who is trained by Andre Fabre must hold a very good chance as his trainer has actually won the Breeders Cup Classic before and more often then not is spot on in his planning. The fact he will allow Brigantin who is US bred to go for the race suggest he has no worries about his ability to take to dirt. Meeznah is another classy animal but whilst she does have the breeding to suggest a seamless transition to dirt in theory, she is not as strong a stayer as Brigantin is and the 8/1 about the pair looks huge.

Locked in:

2pt EW Brigantin 8/1 Skybet

Turf Sprint

Regally Ready

I was going to leave this but actually noticed this animal in the field! I’ve never backed a winner in the Sprint races at this meeting but I was on Regally Ready in Canada at a good price of 12/1 a few weeks ago. Whilst he beat Bated Breath, the pace looked slow and steady rather then frantic and I’m not sure if he’s good enough for the BC as the field he beat in the Nearctic Stakes looks nothing special. However as he’s won me some dough last time out, I’ll go in again just for a bit of interest.

Locked in:

1pt EW Regally Ready 5/1

Turf

Sarafina

Kicking myself I didn’t go in early as she’s now 5/2 from 7/2. Not an EW proposition at that price but going to lock this in before it shortens.

Locked in:

3pt win Sarafina 5/2 Ladbrokes

Mile

Goldikova

Tough race as in the back of my mind, I’m asking despite the tempting 2/1 earlier (now 7/4 across the board) why is she so high a price? 2/1 is a very backable price and I figure she will be further supported closer to the race. Someone said she was 4/5 and I can see her price contracting to possibly odds-on on the day. She was certainly not my first instinct as Strong Suit was the initial pick. Still torn but going to trade on this race on Betfair and give me every chance of changing my mind with no loss.

3pt win Goldikova 2.78 Betfair

On the Day:

I’ll revisit the race again and if I do change my mind, I can still trade out at hopefully a much shorter price then the 2.78 on offer.

Vet- I'm keen on Creative Cause but what's your take on Daddy Long Legs? I think he'll go on the dirt with no problem. Do you guys have an opinion on him?

HolyBull- Actually coming round to thinking SYT has a good chance. Still my quibble is with the price. Is SYT being ignored or are the public likely to force his price down? What price is he currently now?

Cheers guys!

Great stuff, GC. I will prnit this out and use it.

Goldikova is the most intriguing play (or non-play) of the day. I predict that if she doesn't win, that there will be a bomber in the upset, and that just might be....Mott's Couragious Cat.

What scares me is that we don't know waht PVal will show up!

thnaks guys.. looking at the dirt races in more depth.

THinking:

Ladies Classic- It's Tricky- I'#ve given my thought process on this race in another thread. Quite simply, I'm shooting in the dark on this one but come on! It's the Breeders Cup! Will have a punt  Nothing heavy.. just for fun and interest. After all, it's much better when there's money on it

F and M Sprint- Switch- keen on taking favourite on as whilst her record is impressive and 3yos throughout the world has been dominating their elders, it's a sprint and nothing is that straightforward as sprint in my view tends to be lotteries unless there is one standout sprinter like Black Caviar or Dream Ahead. Is Turbulent Descent in that bracket? Possibly but I think Switch is a safer bet at 4/1 as she's sure to give us a run for our money with a likely top 3 finish with every chance of collecting the win portion of the bet too. She really should get us our money back with a top 3 finish.

GL