Breeders Cup Ante-Post

Classic

I've locked in two for the CLassic already in Dortmund 25/1EW and Destin 33/1 Win Only. Will probably add Nyquist before he runs next week around 12/1 EW. Those three should be it with Dortmund the biggest winner of the three if he can prevail. 

Thoughts on Dortmund vs California Chrome please! Obviously Dortmund had a longer layoff then Chrome but I thought it was encouraging the way he came back a touch at the winner. I don't necessarily think Dortmund has to lead but he will be prominent. He was getting 5lbs from his rival so I'd have to think he needed the run a touch even if he had been training well. A bigger horse may just need more conditioning so there's every reason to be encouraged.

Highland Reel has been spoken of as a possible for the Cox Plate. O'Brien has so many entries for the Melbourne Spring carnival it's hard to be confident. I doubt he will be aimed at Europe's top autumn races as he simply isn't good enough even if he did the King George.

-Limato was beaten over 5F in the Nunthorpe but wasn't really a surprise. He's more of a 6-7F horse and ground went against him slightly. For Meccas Angel to be within a whisker of Dayjur's track record on softer ground is a huge compliment to her class. Right now, he could go for the SPrint Cup this week but my gut feeling is, his owner has made a pig's ear of his campaign. After the July Cup he should've gone Sprint Cup then Breeders but instead we were thrown a curveball when he was supplemented for the Nunthorpe. 

That was against what his trainer Henry Candy wanted. Conflicting reports again now with news filtering through that if the ground is right, he could go for the Sprint cup after all after being ruled out. This is ground dependent. IF he goes for the Sprint Cup and win on fast ground then I make him a big player for the Breeders Cup as I'd expect him to be put away until Santa Anita.

-Ballydoyle plans: Seventh Heaven won the Yorkshire Oaks and it's said the big target is the Breeders Cup. I'd assume the Fillies and Mares Turf but I have my doubts. She'll go where the ground is quick but if there is an Indian summer through to autumn, I'd expect her to go to France for the Prix Vermeille before going to Ascot for the Champions Fillies and Mares race.

As it stands I don't think Ballydoyle has any big guns for the major turf races at Santa Anita.The juvenile turf races perhaps but the big Championship races, they lack ante-post propositions so they are a pass.

Of their options, I'd be keen on Found or Highland Reel for the Turf but if Postponed rocks up, it's game over imo. Solid 124 horse who I rate on par with Flintshire who I put at 122, a solid Group 1 yardstick in Europe on par with Highland Reel but not a top notcher. I'd doubt he has improved from his European performances at his age.

-In the Mile, Tepin has the older generation's number but any three yo has to be respected. Which horse that misses the Queen Elizabeth Mile at Ascot's Champions' Day gets my vote. Zelzal is the one I'm keeping an eye on.

Arrogate blew me away. ticked all boxes on sectionals and final time. RPR gave him a rating of 131 and with the weight allowance, that makes him the one to beat if he can back it up. Looks the one to beat of all the Classic generation contenders.

The market has it spot on so there's no plays there for me. Destin and Dortmund were my two darts and both unlikely to be winning the Classic. Both probably won't turn up!

Dirt Mile could shape up to be a classic! if Dortmund drops down, i'd back him but he'll likely be a hot favourite so not much value to be had there.

Very taken by AP Indian's win on Saturday. I've backed him at 7/1 EW. Think he's a huge price. Looks progressive and very much happy with that bet.

I thought they went quick in the Travers and incredibly Arrogate was still able to gallop strongly to the line. Destin, for me was exposed. He had his ideal position tracking the pace but couldn't go with the front three when they began to race to the home straight. Just no excuse there for him and he's a write off in my view.

Have to disagree on Exaggerator. All the evidence says he is indeed ground dependent. Even if you look at his wins and concur he might need a strong early pace, he got that here too. As you say, the major consensus appears to be the Classic generation aren't that good and that appears to be the case with an improver Arrogate now heading the division decisively beating a field that seems to take it in turns in beating each other. Only Nyquist wasn't there.

Dortmund my other dart I think needs to be in front but you're right, he is exposed over 10F and at this level as it stands. I've read how he's sweated up and got a little bit coltish with someone even mentioning Baffert overdosing him on Thyroxine! lol.. Wasn't able to watch the parade but if true, there might still be some scope there. But realistically, I can't see Baffert sending Dortmund to the Classic in light of Arrogate's performance unless American Freedom steps down. 

Mention of Shared Belief got me wondering what might've been :( Super horse and I rate him better then Chrome. Frosted I think we all know needs a long lay off between his races. He had a wind op early in his 3yo year and those horses often are best caught fresh. If I were Godolphin, I'd put him away until the big race.

Nice thoughts btw!

Thanks!

Check out my post comment in another blog on here after the Travers. Destin did have a major excuse. He got used up and mangled by multi-horses in the form of being squeezed checked backed into cut off and slammed out of the gate in that first 1/16. It seemed that all of that washed him out. I know Gift Box nailed him quite a few times. And he tried jumping in the air into that first turn on a few occasions. Then he passes four colts racing into that first turn and on the back stretch runs as if he was coming home and J. Castellano who is the best dirt jockey in America goes to the whip into that final turn. He just didn't have horse that day for whatever reason. The colt hasn't had a normal training/race routine all year. I would not right him off. And I hope he at least gets into that gate for you come Classic time. Anything can happen. He runs in the Classic he should be 30-45•1. He could turn around and easily carry the same catch me if you can speed especially still being a colt. He carried his speed magnificently for 1 1/2 on Big Sandy. Watch him break intently and what proceeds and thereafter in the Travers. Nobody was going to beat Arrogate Saturday and that's the bottom line. B. Baffert too doesn't sound off or his body language doesn't exude the ultimate confidence that Arrogate's a world beater as some of his previous charges. I'm a huge Unbridled Song (R. I. P.) fan too. So I do believe he'll bounce next time out. Exaggerator really didn't get the pace setup. Their quite wasn't a pace dual. Lone speed on the lead is dangerous speed when it could be carried. The pace wasn't contested hotly. But he may be a bit tired and, may be a monster on the turf especially with his move. The horse does have speed as well. You don't rate off of a speedster and stay so close going 7 panels as he did. I just really think last year's crop was so weak. They beat nobody they don't even win and Pharoah beat nothing but a bunch of restricted colts, horses regressing and one-dimensional styles. The horse won one bad open company race. So I don't think Dortmund is anything more than an over hyped entry as was Frosted till he finally flashed potential for the first time mid-year. Keep in mind for as great as Frosted supposedly is, his racing record is atrocious for the existing sentiment he holds as supposedly being great. Real horse racing competition is what we're witnessing these 3 year-olds doing. This crop is tough as nails. Creator Nyquist Exaggerator Governor Malibu Destin Unified Arrogate and even Laoban and etc.'s. At least that's my take. Dortmund just continually seems outclassed in every significant race. I'm talking about Grade 1. He might belong in the race but he doesn't seal any deals and never has. Gun Runner too thus far. The amazing thing last week was, how did they know to mark Destin 10•1 Gift Box 12•1 then Connect gets let go at 12•1, Gift Box 21•1 and even Arrogate at 10-or-12•1. I just felt something was wrong with some of these entries. Especially Gun Runner and Creator both being written at 15-&-17•1. I knew with Arrogate and Gift Box at those prices one would need to fire and that one will. What a fine sensitive line that was. At 4•1 I did not like Connect but at 12•1 gosh. I felt something was bad about Destin too. Destin Gun Runner and Creator all three had the same running to betting lines and that sucked up all the money and interest along with Exaggerator. American Freedom seemed to be an overlay. Governor Malibu even money. Arrogate where he should of been. Gift Box Connect overlays. Laoban bounce candidate priced appropriately. Gun Runner and Creator underlays. Only about 4 horses changed positions during the course of the race. I don't think there was anything special about Gun Runner just the fact that he was a beneficiary of being allowed to hang there and not be passed up. There's still plenty of racing. You have the older division horses. Woodward Jockey Gold Cup Awesome Again. And Melatonin. I wouldn't write Win the Space off either. If Giacamo can win and 50-to-75$ horses in the Derby, so can any entry in a contentious field. Either way Good Luck! And I prefer and love grass racing. I'm going to review your lawn charges and watch them.

Destin perhaps needs to mature more but the excuses for defeats are rather piling up at the moment. If he turns up, then great but I don't think Pletcher will overface him this year with next year in mind. You're right in that Arrogate wasn't obviously a stable star but there's no denying he looks progressive. He's obviously a "bounce" candidate but I thought his run was solid it's hard to pick holes in it. Time will tell!

Do have some ante-post (futures) bets coming up with the focus on the Arc de Triomphe and Champions Day as well as next year's Guineas! Harzand is the one I've gone for at 10s and he's in plenty of doubles (parlays) too so he's worth a lot if he can do. Has to get there first but hopeful of a decent showing. That race will be the first Sunday of October. I also have Minding at 25/1 as insurance but I don't think she lines up.

Almanzor is my Champions Stakes play at 20/1. Now 12s. He goes for the Irish Champion on 10th September and may clash with Harzand and Minding. One of the races of the season if all line up. Hoping for a very good run. He's fit, nice turn of foot but lacks context in his form as does HArzand and Minding. This race will sort the pecking order of each formlines. If he can go close or even win it, I'd hope connections will stick with the plan and head to Ascot on October 15th rather then be tempted by a tilt at the Arc.

Ribchester I've backed at 5/1 for the Champions Mile. The Gurkha, winner of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes likely is out having undergone surgery for "displaced colon"! that makes Ribchester the one to beat and he should have Galileo Gold's number. Older generation nothing to get excited about as they've been poor. Zelzal is the one I fear but same owners as Galileo Gold. He runs in the Prix du Moulin on 10th September so hopefully he runs well and his connections will tell us more! Would've liked to have backed him for Breeders Cup Mile but alas, not quoted. If connections hint at a Champions Mile tilt, I will be forced to add him as a saver. But if connections hint at the Breeders Cup, I'll have to hope the bookies introduce to the market at a minimum 10/1.

Next season's 2000 Guineas, Churchill 12/1, Senator 40/1, 200.0 are the two darts whilst in the 1000 Guineas, Roly Poly 33/1 (could turn up at Santa Anita), Fair Eva 14/1 and Rhododendron 40.0, 25/1 are my three darts. Those are our classic races over a mile. Long way off but love speculating on contenders at biggish prices!

Pleasure changing views

It looks like a quiet BC meeting for me. No ante-post bets with serious win aspirations and short prices on the day isn't my style. GL to all playing this great meeting!

Breeders Cup DistaffAll Odds

DateFriday 4th November 2016Runners

Songbird (8/11)

Beholder (4)

Stellar Wind (9/2)

Cavorting (14)

Curalina (16)

Im A Chatterbox (16)

Stopchargingmaria (16)

Carina Mia (25)

Cathryn Sophia (25)

Forever Unbridled (25)

Paid Up Subscriber (25)

Sheer Drama (33)

Corona Del Inca (40)

Vale Dori (40)

Go Maggie Go (50)

Land Over Sea (50)

Lewis Bay (50)

Breeders Cup Dirt MileAll Odds

DateFriday 4th November 2016Runners

Frosted (11/4)

Dortmund (5)

Runhappy (6)

Gun Runner (7)

American Freedom (8)

Toms Ready (10)

Anchor Down (12)

Bradester (12)

Texas Chrome (14)

Tommy Macho (14)

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies TurfAll Odds

DateFriday 4th November 2016Runners

Intricately (3)

Spain Burg (4)

Victory To Victory (6)

Lull (7)

Roly Poly (7)

Brave Anna (8)

With Honors (8)

Beat The Benchmark (10)

Stormy Perfection (10)

Sweeping Paddy (10)

Con Te Partiro (12)

Coasted (16)

Enstone (16)

Majestic Gale (16)

Noble Ready (16)

Blame It On Alphie (20)

You Missed It (20)

Lady Joan (25)

Rich Legacy (25)

Lady Aurelia

Breeders Cup Juvenile TurfAll Odds

DateFriday 4th November 2016Runners

Oscar Performance (6)

Wellabled (6)

Boynton (7)

Good Samaritan (8)

Conquest Farenheit (9)

Bowies Hero (10)

Made You Look (12)

Red Lodge (14)

Landfall (16)

Big Score (18)

Keep Quiet (25)

I expect Europe to dominate this even back at Santa Anita. Not a fan of this year's crop of horses. Postponed and Found unlikely to turn up and that leaves Highland Reel. Loves fast ground, tactically suited to AMerican racing as he like to make the pace. I backed Ironicus last time out and he only got going too late vs Miss Temple City. I would think the Mile is more likely his target??

Dirt Mile/Classic: Dortmund confirmed. No news on Frosted just yet. Would like confirmation he goes to the Classic as that means I get a free bet on him if I back him EW! Off a long layoff, he has no excuses and it's whether he's good enough. this will be the first time he races against very good opposition off a long layoff and we shall see how he goes.

Turf: Found came second on Champions Day and whilst her constitution is admirable, surely the BC is one race too many? Last season she took in the Irish Champion, Arc, Champions Stakes before winning the BC. If she turns up, she's the one to beat for sure. Highland Reel confirmed for this by O'Brien and should run well.

Frosted taken out the betting with several bookies for Dirt Mile so looks like Classic is the target