Dirty Derby action

Greetings sickos, freaks, whackjobs and vampire-movie-watching losers

Time for some Kentucky Derby action.

Glad to see there are still some good guys in the horse forum that know their stuff which makes it a cool place even with a few crusty old bitter d-bags.

FIRESIDE CHAT with MEGALOCKS

For all you young Sparkies out there - this is a great day for veteran horseplayers like myself. However - even with a ton of retard money in the pools - it is the most challenging day for me outside of Breeders Cup. VERY difficult.

If you are new to the racing game - the main reason the Derby is so tough is that horses will run WAY better than their form and past performance often dictate. Horses move FORWARD and while past performance, breeding, training, etc.. are important - nobobdy REALLY knows how good their horse is or how they will react to their longest race to date in front of a gazillion screaming fans while being jammed bumper to bumper in a huge field. Horse racing is so interesting because you are always looking for the horse that will improve. Well in a field of lightly raced well bred 3 yr olds - they pretty much ALL have a license to improve. When you throw in all the randomness of traffic trouble, weather, how they are feeling race day, jockey decision, etc....It really is a crapshoot.

Analysis up next.

GL

MEGA

Horse by horse thoughts.

1-5.

#1 SCRATCHED

#2 Oxbow. Has a tough draw rail is not great...Has a win at CD....3 poor posts in a row and dealt with traffic in last....Didnt do much as a 2yr old been better this yr - figures to move forward. Cant see a win but could hit ticket as longshot.

#3 Revolutionary. Winner of LA Derby gets legend C Borel to ride and he is magical on Derby day...Has been the fav in all 6 of his lifetime starts and never been worse than 3rd. Freaked with his best Beyer speed figure on wet track last yr which stands out like a giraffe. Cant blame those liking him i put him on second tier of horses and will not play as he will likely be overbet IMO. Would need 12-1 or more.

#4 Golden Soul. Oink.

#5 Normandy Invasion

Worries us that he has only won once but looks to be sitting on a career best. 3rd off layoff and should be perfectly positioned mid pack. 2nd in Gr 1 Wood...Has always been well backed....Not sure his best will be enough but will be a nice price and will be one of our CLEVELAND STEAMER PLAYS OF THE DAY.

6-10.

#6 Mylute Gave this one a long look. Love the jock change back to Rosie who has won on him before. Really suspect last yr...2nd in LA Derby just dont see this horse improving enough to win but could explode tri hitting 3rd.

#7 Giant Finish

Horses coming from polytrack have performed admirably in recent yrs...Also has a wet track score....Agree with DRF monkeys that this one will be maybe 50-1+ and could definitely hit the back of tri or super.

#8 Goldencents. Mega contender. Just dont play favs typically on Derby Day. Coming off a career best will win if moves forward again....that rarely happens. One of 3 most likely winners.

#9 Overanalyze. Won Ark Derby. 4/7 wins. Great connections. In second tier of contenders. Had to decide between this one and one other later for my second key....Cant fault any of you who back him.

#10 Palace Malice Another possible bomb to hit tri - tough trip last - just dont like 0-4 this yr. Vet jock. Always well bet.

#11 Lines of Battle. Foreign entry from UAE. Have nothing good or bad to say no way of knowing how this horse will run.

#12 Itsmyluckyday Had a freak pair of Beyers in Jan at GS then lost at GP as fav to Orb. Was complete trash before those 2 wins then a loss. Will be overbet.

#13 Falling Sky. Early spd then PFFT.

#14 Verrazano. 4 for 4. Never lost. One of 3 most likely winners. Super horse. just cant play as fav or odds below 8-1 on derby day. Looks great but Beyers are declining. May also get mixed up in fast pace early.

#15 Charming Kitten. Most of career races on Turf. Decent race in Bluegrass on poly. Crafty jock. Another bomb that could spice up tri or super on bottom.

16 Orb. Our most likely winner. Cheering for him as a fan as we love the Florida horses - follow Gulfstream closely - love the paired 97 Beyer top and running style and hottest jock on the planet riding...Nice running style. Gonna be a handful.

17.Will Take Charge. Puzzled by this one. Logical bomb is suppose. coming off career best. 3/7 wins. Hmmmm. Maybe will slot him in on second tier.

18. Frac Daddy. 1/6. was 23-1 in Ark Derby and got up for 2nd. Speed wise is 100% outgunned even with move forward IMO.

19. Javas War. Will likely be DFL after the first q mile and i dont care how you close - he will be SOOOOOOOOOO far back it will be really tough to circle the field. Potential scraps if pace collapses but may be overbet believe or not even at 20-1.

20. Vyjack.

2 wins of last 3 races. 3/7 overall. improving and has enough early speed to get in top 10-12 going into first turn. Horses in aux gate outside do well at least lately. garbage himself in only wet track start so may reassess if track turn up wet but we like him as our second CLEVELAND STEAMER play of the day. Not a likely winner but will be a nice price and does not suck.

Strategy. We will try and get 5,20 locked in in the pick 3 and or double going into the race and then play them for second behind the logical winners in the ex and tri. SPICY.

GL to all !  MEGA

GL to everyone ! Its on the slop.

Have not picked the winner in years ....Just love the day tho - No opinion is a bad one. Congrats in advance to anyone who hits the winner.

Jonny - not sure about that turf race since i like the fav quite a bit Wise Dan - after that can see any one of 4-5 taking it so saving bullets for the Derby.

bill - best of luck - like palice malice quite a bit

mrh - miss our banter ! good luck with the big one

timh - thanks - you are class act buddy - GL

everyone else - go get some

Already died in a pick 3 trying to set up with 5,20  Tried to beat Delaunay and burned.

Revised race selection next - and yes - despite knowing a lot the bets will almost surely lose

vanillagorilla - It really depends on how much bankroll you have and what you are trying to accomplish. Do you want a higher probability ticket paying less or swing for the fences?

I am gonna play two horses to win and some ex and tris.

I often suggest to people to pick your horse to win - whoever it may be - and bet them Win Show and ex box them with logical favs.

if your horse wins - you get win $ show $ and probably ex $

if you get 2nd - you get show and probably ex $

if you get 3rd - you get show $

not sexy - but simple. Go with your gut because many experts have not picked the winner this century. GL buddy

Two keys will be

5 - normandy invasion and 20 Vyjack - unlikely winners but going for a price.....Determining ex and tri strategy

Thoughts welcome and appreciated

Ok well sloppy track so going to avoid trifectas.

win show 5 and 20

ex box 5 20, 8 20, 16 20, 5 16, 5 8

GL ......MEGA