Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

Capping Mohawk right now 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Doing the same now at 3pm ...gonna finish the next 3 races...crazy muggy here in T.O.....feels like 36C outside

Just checked the weather and its going to be 5-10 mph N /NW wind.....with the humidity, no advantage or disadvantage for horse position tonight. Anything goes

Throw out ideas and observations....I am sure I might miss something but as you know, you can't put every horse in there and hope to hit because thats when they bring in faves for 3-5 nights and you are left holding the bag! haha

Race #3 - CONTENTIOUS RACE TO PICK I BET??? 

If so, take ALL since there are many ways to go here and I expect an 'unusual race' since either #7 or #9 is going to blast out at the start for position and maybe the lead. Both those horses are fit and they may feel they can steal this race with their back half times......I was thinking that as I tend to handicap outside horses first. 

But as you peel away what each horse can do, I think there are many contenders in this race and the program suggestions are crap.... which leads me to believe, this race IS THE BARN race and any horse can win

But, if capping, here are the best in my view:

#9 - knocking on the door....bet and favoured a lot when young and this horse was touted as a free-for-all type horse and I see it now on the track...black beauty with well defined muscles and Roger has figured out he needs to be aggressive in the back half of a race to make this horse maximize its potential. Its ready to pop!

#5 - Tymal Tarot is a tough front end horse who I have seen win from the 10 hole 2x with Sylvain and now going to Trevor is ideal if Hughes thinks an aggressive steer is necessary. I think that is needed in this race because position will matter

#7 - knocking on the door and great back halfs.....Hensley can be aggressive with a horse and that might work tonight since this horse used to be a front end or nothing kind of 1st Quarter mover. Going back to that style could work for it or the #9 (see above)

#5 - Drury/Auciello is the best driver/trainer combo for a trotter fresh in their barn and I expect this horse to be a factor as it can leave or close with good back halfs and look at the good drivers in the U.S. that made it move??

#3 - closer and whiz trotter trainer in Cherwaiko....

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Would prefer to leave out these horses:

#8 - no amount of front end spend will bring this home vs the 5 strong back half horses and Rowlen in this race

#2 - Rowlen needs one race facing fit horses who have improving times on 3 of them above

#6 - how is this horse 3-1? Look at the back halves and yes I like Steacy but if JMAC cannot get this horse to move faster in the back half and Dexter Dunn cannot, does one thing P-Mac can??? NO

#1 - too much of a mystery and back halfs are meh...off a break and Dagfin falls into races unless he is aggressive...won't be doing so on the rail and off a break when a flatline is now needed

Race #4 - think this race is an ALL race 

> 5 - 6 speed horses or crazy driver /trainer get to the front end horses so frankly.....any horse can win this race but if I were to key a horse...

#2 - Amanda Fine is very hot trainer this year and horses seem to be juiced ....Roy also does better when JMAC and Sylvain are not around. This horse might be able to win in 151 soon....it won easily and under wraps the other day...Roy was not concerned others were coming at him

#7 intrigues me a little and #8 knows how to win out west ....5 for 15 last year and Trevor is figuring out what this horse can do

Been betting #4 for a while now and like the horse and driver and was hoping for that win last week!

Race #5 - very interesting to cap and have 2 horses that might give me what I am looking for which is to hit the $1000+ hits like I made all last year from start of covid in March 2020 - August 

#3 Kounnis - 6 - 1 in the book and dropping down...inside...aggressive and equal/better driver than Sylvain....decent trainer who has their horse perform when they drop in class!

#8 Miss Rockadali....8-1 in the book > classy front end dynamo who has lasix now working for it as we saw what the horse could do from the 10-hole and with Hensley on the horse, I expect similar aggression. this horse was winning weeks in a row as a 3 yr old and race OSS races before

--------------------------------------------------must go in if not taking a shot at two above ^

#5 - can win anytime and a dominate low claiming trainer who just wins!

#9 - look what the horse did when they figured it out ....wow....dropping as well and might have to throw it in with the two above

--------------------------------------maybe?

#6 or #7 if there is a speed battle or fixed race and they fall into it....they dont have the finishing times and suck along

#10 ...the kind of horse that Cullen likes to move on after a win at a B-track and outside post...might close and nip at the wire 

#1 -Whelan drives well for Perriera and surprises once in a while when inside

One more angle I might play....is to wheel a trainer who has 3 live horses but the trainer does not hit that often.

The trainer tonight is Herb Holland....

My plays: Pick5

3 / 4 / ALL / ALL / 359 < leaving out #8 because Hensley is not driving!!

3 / ALL / 34579 / #2 / 13568910 

1248 / 4 / 34579 / 2478 / 359 

BOL BUD....doing a Holland wheel as well 

Uh oh....when you see that many horses off the gate....its a barn race

Likely to the #7

SHIT!

My only two plays alive now are keying a Herb Holland horse in race #3 and #4 although I added Tug on credit with that one:

 1238 / 4 / 7 / ALL / 359

1238 / 4 / ALL except 7 / 28 / 359

There is heavy smoke from Western Canada causing closing horses to not fire very well...

Front end is doing well, which is exactly opposite of what I handicapped for the most part tonight

Holland trainer won 3rd race but I am out now ....keyed it in a $1 pick3 with ALL with 7 horses in the last leg

It should pay well....

Hope you used the Holland idea and the driver change to McNair and am still alive. Its a monster total tonight!

If the next race goes fave and then fave in the last race....I think I may just wait till tomorrow night but will throw out my thoughts if I see something in the later races to help you out if playing.

Fave! #2....damn

Just missed #6 at 49-1....they tried to create a race for any horse to win....its why I love All when the horses are close in form or just enough mystery with their times from B-TRACKS

Race #6 ....like GP Dreamin but give it a race or throw in for fun

#1-2 only

Race #7

- 56

Race #8

-37

Race 8 

-234

Race 10 

134 10

Ok....done for the night

Smoke affecting some horses and some not so much...hard to know. Its like when it rains.

I will hope for a better evening of rating horses tomorrow

GL and good night

Some Facts about recent Pick5s (1st big one from race #1 - #5)

Again tonight, with 4-1 or lower in the morning line all winning the 5 races, the P5 paid $525 for a 20 cent payout

It begs the question, is chasing working out? I am going to do an analysis and report my findings in here:

Tonight  yes  > over $500   (1 of 5 morning faves)

 Saturday  NO....4 of 5 .... 8 - 1 in one of the races > $750   (2 of 5 morning faves)

Friday  yes ....one race winner was 9-2 as the highest  > $188   (2 of 5 morning faves)

Thursday yes...one race winner was 9-2 as the highest >$41   (1 of 5 morning faves)

Tuesday July 13    NO....6-1 won one of the races > $255   (1 of 5 morning faves)

Monday  yes ....one winner was 9 - 2  > $252  (3 of 5 morning faves)

Saturday yes ..... > $26   (4 of 5 morning faves)

Friday NO ..... one winner was 8 -1  > $948  (1 of 5 morning faves)

Thursday    NO ....one winner was 8 -1 > $215  (2 of 5 morning faves)

Tuesday July 6  yes .... 2 winners were 9-2  > $1223 (1 of 5 morning faves)

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Monday    NO ...2 winners were 6-1 and 10-1  (3 of 5 morning line faves)

Saturday  yes ..... highest was 9 - 2 > $58   (3 of 5 morning faves)

Friday   yes ...2 of 5 were 9-2  > $1546  ( 0 of 5 morning faves)

Thursday  NO ... 10-1 winner once >  $300  (2 of 5 morning faves )

Tues June 29  NO ... 6-1 one winner > $133  (3 of 5 morning faves)

Monday  yes ....  $500   (2 of 5  morning faves)

Saturday yes .... $595   (1 of 5 morning faves)

Friday  NO ..... 6 - 1 winner once  (3 of 5 were morning faves) $362

Thursday yes .... $227  (2 of 5 were morning faves)

Tuesday June 22 ... yes   $55  ( 2 of 5 were morning faves)

AVG WIN = $434

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ANALYSIS:

First 20 (above)  = 12 of 20 meets   had all winners   9 - 2 or lower  

                             = of the 12 winners >  1 /12     had no fave         =  $0  made

                                                             >  4 / 12    had 1 fave only   > avg pay = $590 per

                                                               >  4 / 12    had 2 faves only > avg pay = $243 per

                                                               >  2 / 12    had 3 faves only > avg pay = $155 per 

                                                               >  1 / 12    had 4 faves only > avg pay = $26

So, if you and me each played  4 with 4 with 4 with 4 with 1 > would cost $51. 40 cents per play per meet 

                                                                                           but you would have to get the right fave

If you played 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x3 .....it would cost $48.60 and if you included 3 of the key faves, you would hit many of the 

                                                 twelve

If you played  4 x 4 x 3 x 3 x 2 .....it would cost $57.60 per meet 

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Assume you catch 2 of the 4 single fave wins, 2-3 double faves wins and 1 of the 3 fave wins = 5-6 of 20 meets won

5 - 6 meets = 5x $434 = $2170   or  6 x $434 = $2604

Cost for 20 meets @ $57.60 = $1152 only .........

Bottom line is.....you make about $1000+ per 60 days....thats pretty good

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What if you took 2 faves as keys and took 1 race as 7 horses so you get 10-1 and lower.....and then the other races you picked only 3 horses each? > that ticket would cost you an extra $12.60 ......BUT....You might catch one of the non all fave races which tend to pay well and maybe double up on one of your 2 or 3 win faves 

-7 out of 20 races had 4 of 5 races go to a 9-2 or lower odds with 1 horse winning at 5-1 up to 10-1 

-average payout of those = $423

-Only 1 out of 20 races had two horses win 6-1 or higher out of the 5 winners and it had 3 morning line faves win with it!

So imagine if you hit one of those over 20 races......you would also be ahead and maybe even hit a double up on one of your tickets all because you played 2 tickets just the way I laid out.....for $70 per meet

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$1400 played out over  20 meets > would payout  $2500 - $3500 per 60 days if the pattern holds

Assume pandemic doesn't stop them.....$8400 spent would payout $15 000 - $21 000 per year

I bet I spend way over $8400 a year on plays and don't always have a profitable year like that.....and it also goes to show, playing BIG TICKETS is chasing unnecessarily! 

I think its time to try the system and once you are in a good profit, start spending $140 per meet and 40 cent plays .....and so on if the system prove itself over many months so you double your profit margins or take home

If I start this system and stop doing ALL tickets......not one horse at 15-1 or 20-1 in the book hit over 20 meets.....and if I just did one small ticket with 2 of the 5 morning line faves and include one 7 horse field ....I think we would be surprised how many good payouts we could hit consistently and keep funding until once in a while, we hit a really nice streak over 60 days and then you spend on bigger tickets above 20 cent .....

I am glad this analysis worked out. I am going to spend some time and see if I can go back to last year and do it over 60-120 days 

Sorry Brother...This has the busiest summer of my life ..Kids have sports almost 7 days a week every week ...

I'll be capping and posting the MOHAWK card tonight right here ..

No worries...no expectations, family first always ...just like I had to put job first always until I retire next spring since my job pays well and has helped our family get to where it is.

....just play the system and enjoy:

Race 1, 2 ,3 ,4 or 5

> play 2 of those races with the 4 lowest morning line picks of 5-2 / 3-1/7-2/9-2 or 4-1 

> play 1 of those races with only 2 horses of the morning line > fave + one of  > 7-2 / 4-1 or 9-2 morning line picks

> play 2 of those races with the 3 lowest morning line faves in the program  > 5-2 / 3-1 / 7-2 or 9-2 or 4-1 picks

The other alternative was to play in Race #1 - 5 >   3 horses x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3  ....but in each of those races, you must use the morning line fave in at least 3-4 races

Bottom line of following this format:

-You still have to cap and decide which races will have 4 or 3 horses in your picks including the morning line fave 

-You will hit a bare minimum of 5 and up to 12 PICK5s ......every 20 chances to start the meet in races 1 - 5

-the average payout worked out to be over $400 per winning payout

-the investment to win that average payout is 30-50% of potential average winnings

-over a year, you are guaranteed to earn $5000-10 000 profit on this system over the year and have the joy of always having $$$ in your account, plus, you can start to increase your sizing of the PICK5 play from a 20 cent play to now a 40 cent play or higher >>>> then profits come in even more so !

I am now going to figure out what you could win playing every 3 races in a pick 3 in the first five races but mix in some middle odds like 6-1 to 10-1 every of the first 3 races and even race #4 and #5

Pick3 system would be:

Race 1 > 7 lowest horses / 3 lowest horses / 4 lowest horses  = cost $16.80

Race 2 > 7 lowest horses / 3 lowest horses / 4 lowest horses = cost $16.80

Race 3 > 7 lowest horses / 3 lowest / 4 lowest  = cost $16.80

           > 4 lowest / 7 lowest / 4 lowest =  cost $22.40

           > 4 lowest / 4 lowest / 7 lowest  = cost $22.40

Total cost of Pick 3 system played as well would be > $95.20

....so now I am going to see how many Pick3's you could hit with the system out of 100 plays in those first 20 sessions from June 22 - yesterday 

-Cost would be > $1904 to play 100 Pick3's ....let me calculate the avg payout per Horse evening playing these 5 pick3's

And remember too, if there are scratches, your costs are lower but you still play the system with one fewer horse