Is it my imagination or do you guys think Sylvain has lost his HANDS or imagination as a driver ?
I see him constantly burning horses on the engine like Luc Roy did his second year on the track and now JMAC has the hands and Roy or McNair are racing better than Sylvain. McClure cannot win on his usual tactics either which is off the pace.
We have air quality issues again today....smoke in the air. I gotta think this affects breathing of horses as they seemed to be bothered the other day too and just watched Monday and Tuesday races last week when air quality issues were released
Here is what I noticed and remembered:
Both days had a push wind although closers had trouble using that wind to help them down the lane...you had to be in the top 5 positions to win mostly in both days of the pick5 except for a favourite horse
You also could win if you moved 2nd over or came up the rail....so I am leerie of closers unless they can get to the front with the poor air quality today
Use that in your capping and I hope it works for you....I think outside posts are death:
Monday July 19 race 1-5 > #2 / #6 / #7/#2/ #5 .....no outside posts and #7 likes to leave
Tuesday July 20 race 1-5 >#1 / #5 / #8 who always rockets to the lead! / #4 / #1
Capping and declaring soon
Mostly inside 7 positions tonight on picks with one exception > Drury blasting an Auciello horse from outside
Race 1 > #57 .......maybe surprise #12
Race 2 > #4567 .....leans to #47
Race 3 > yuck...based on trainers and horse tendencies/drivers.....I think only 3569 can win likely
-strong lean to just keying the 2 Auciello horses #59 because as drivers like to blast to the lead and do not think other drivers/horses are good enough to catch them if they get a good lead
-mystery horses are #28 > PUT THEM IN on a backup ticket??
Race 4 > 16 ....maybe #4 but its Mathew Bax driving....Dicentra #7 is a Blais horse but horse does not move like last year but maybe I assume it might tonight? So, with no great drivers and McClure the only one, I think you put him in because last year Scott Young used to drive it and blast to the front and it would hang on to win or pick up top 4 cheques in the OSS and bigger stakes races.....hunch....McClure is gonna leave
Race 5 > 1345
Luc Blais wheel tonight:
40 cent > #7 / 4567 / 59 / 164 / 1345 = (192) = $38.40
#125 / 47 / 59 / 7 /1345 = $9.60
#7/ 457/ 2368/ 16/ 1345 = $9.60
BEST of luck
Its getting super tough with race tactics and drivers not being there....weird stuff happening
I saw the #4 in Race #8 visually and thought it was ready to challenge. I bet $5 across to try to make something happen and it won at 12-1....I also bet the HI5 > 2 with 46 / 468 / a bunch/a bunch ....and the fricken #4 won in that last race...I was pissed off as I had it...for 20 cents I thought and the 4 nipped me at the wire
Its a grind right now...at least I have a little cash for tomorrow in the account
Greenlight on weather tonight....until sometime after 10pm....storms on a pause till then according to the weather network
NW wind up to 12 mph into their face down the straight but could help a second over move wind up to attack home stretch front ender who went to fast
Think about front end and good flow driving horses to catch tonight
Trevor Henry and JMAC are those type of drivers....Sylvain too
Scott Young impressing me too
Drury is on a front end mission right now but it doesn't work vs. all the best drivers who attack him and then another rolls over him 2nd over
Capping now
It's been brutal lately ...
When I win it's a chalk fest ( like you mentioned I play too many low odd horses ) ..
Some ot these races are nearly impossible to handicap...Been some very questionable rides as well ...
Glad you got cash back ...I'm not putting any more money into my account...
Plan on betting a few Suoers tonight ...Be back shortly after some capping
Enjoying the handicapping on this one tonight.....a lot clearer for some reason which bodes well for me winning
2489 ....think Stelios #2 is tight and might romp here....Sylvain has his pick in this one
6 ...if this horse stays flat, it can romp to an easy win....notice Fellows is new trainer? See what he does with younger trotters and you will remember an upset win last night in the HI5 with his horse shaving 2 seconds off its last win time
(will do small 2nd ticket with All)
13710 ....tempted to key this #3 ....look at the closing time in the quali!!!...most horses win first race with that resume!
34 ....both #3 and #4 are worthy of a key
-#8 has to go in as a Blais horse but 0-9 is worrisome
-#6 yes for time but races even and don't think it can wire the field or close on 3 or 4....putting it in because of age and improvement
-#5 has potential as it missed by two lengths to Vali in a quali and has JMAC
-#8 Sylvain/Ballairgeron....when they figure out a horse, it shaves 2-3 seconds easy
-#10 ...my gut says Trevor has been hired to send this horse to the front like he knows how to do on trotters ...its a tough horse as you can see JMAC grinds with it first over
Race #5 > #2 ....how does a $325 000 yearly lose its second race?
-#4 has to go in due to closing speed
#9 is super dangerous off of a slow qualifier and the fact Marfisi is training and went to JMAC instead of McNair....I doubt McNair chose a 12 000 yearling over this one....this one would not shock me if it wins
-putting in #8 now that #9 is SCR
GOOD LUCK
Good way to build account back up with the Supers....good idea
Pick 3 is NOT the way to go and Pick4 RACES have had one race where you scratch your head so they are burning $$$ for me
First Pick5 is the best show in town or a super and its wheel 3 of your fave top 4 morning lines...1st and 3rd with mid odds for 2nd....and all for third if you like a mid odds horse
3 x 2 x4 x All ....costs $25.20 and these pay well especially if you get 6 - 1 to 10-1 morning line for 2nd which seems to now be hitting a lot of races lately
First superfecta was a good example....$25 paid $204 for 9 horse race....thats damn good
And you know what you were saying about not hitting...I reflected this afternoon and actually went back and looked at my last 7 Pick5 plays....I realized, then when I looked at my tickets, there was not ONE HORSE at medium odds that I had confidence in which is how I won so much last year....finding a ticket like tonight that I love....with a key on a 4-1 or better like Sylvain in race#4 tonight....or #2 in race 5 on a $325K yearling .....one of those and maybe both may hit with some other mid upsets
So, with 7 Picks....I was chasing rather than playing supers or just watching horses and betting flat...or playing smaller tickets with more risk
As I write this....glad my risk ticket was on this #6 in the second race because it was the risk play tonight given the fact it broke its first race but going to the Fellows barn was comforting and I see it won by over 10 lengths!
Bellina 7-2 Sylvain horse won but my #7 came close.....knew it was an insta key on that last quarter qualifier but again...putting in more horses due to stupid driving and tactics
Feeling pretty good about my chances....have 4 horses with 3 horses to finish my ticket 3468 / 248
Consider playing a double > 34 with 2 for the next two races....maybe even add a 8-2 Blais horse also...should pay well
That was very tight....too tight, glad #4 won in Race 4. #5 has not raced this year! and going against a lot of other good trotters
#8 is no good...had nothing when it tried to move and #3 had nice trot but needs to move better off the gate. #10 is gonna win a race soon
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