Hey @Dickey227 Merry x-mas 
I am capping Thursday afternoon Boxing Day card and I think I have missed maybe 5 in about 35 years.
I won't promise anything. And I want say something is a sure thing but I will play KEYS and I will take chances because I know this game inside out and constantly learning. Since I know you are tailing, I will post some smaller tickets maybe that are fun and if you hit the Colin Kelly horse like I have 2 weeks in a row but leave someone else out, you will experience the joys/highs/lows and excitement that handicapping can bring and can put coin in your pocket....but the other side too is, I know people can get addicted especially after a major win or they feel that rush. I was like that through the 90's and then gave it up for about 3 years (I admit, I had a problem but one year it saved my ass with the mortgage!) and then just bet occasionally which is where I am at. Now I am retired and its a hobby and when my wife retires and we sell our home, we will have no debt and I will then start investing in buying yearlings with a consortium and being at the track a couple days a week. I grew up with some of the drivers and trainers way back.
I will try to cap 2-3 nights a week and sometime all 4 so best of luck. I am holding onto $345 in tickets from the last card when I hit the pick3s for 3x ....but I feel stupid for not spending $5 more and having that #9 in race 4 and cashing just over $6000 but very satisfied I spent roughly around $90 in all my tickets and have $255 profit....that is the name of the game.... win just enough to not dip into your pocket all the time and I also give 10-20% to my wife when I hit $400 or more on a PICK5 ....in 2021, I posted my old thread on the first page of this new thread and if you go back to the beginning while on it, I was hitting Pick5's and superfectas a lot and I earned profit of $26500 despite spending $200 a night because I was on such a roll. Wifey got from me around $3500 or more so she loves it. IF I have a ticket alive to the 4th race...I take my laptop up or we watch over dinner together and cheer or moan haha
Welcome aboard. Hopefully you can play a 20 cent play and not 60 cent or $1 as your local betting service might ask you to. I am so lucky that I work literally a 15 min drive from the track and live 45 min drive from home.
Mohawk Boxing Day Harness Racing - note time > 1pm start
-WEATHER will not be a factor...horses will have nice winter temperatures, a firm track likely and a push wind off of the gate and coming home
Race 1: - interesting race > #7 is ready to win BUT, this race is going to have some tactics in it so I don't think its a good idea to key one horse with trotters that are fairly close in ability/talent (I will play a second ticket with it and my surprise horse #9 since both are fit and ready to roll)
-there are 2 three year olds that merit respect, and the 2 yr olds should be fit and stronger now that the year is ending and they are turning into 3 yr olds
Surprise Horse: none, unless you think #9 with Doug Brown can win out of the #9 hole
Figures/take: 3467 on one ticket 79 < playing a second ticket with these two horses
Race 2: - Some tantalizing horses in here but you may only need 3-4 horses
Surprise Horse: #7 (strong closer) #4 << first time JMAC on an unknown horse and if you fixate on times, you will leave out a horse that the driver/trainer might shave off 2-3 seconds off its lifetime mark > I have seen JMAC do this many times before
Figures/take: 236 and 10
#10 with best race mark and well trained > also #2 with great driver change and very fit horse... #6 should improve and that is scary
-#3 is a consideration to leave out because I think Luc Roy just wants to collect paycheques in this class without winning and being forced to move up and if you here this horse is claimed, you hit the BET TO WIN sign for a little more
Race 3: - in complete agreement with the racing forum handicapping ( I find he is damn good but be selective)
Surprise horse: #6 < traditionally not a driver here but has a nice horse
Figures/take: 289 << Michel V is the 'trot whisperer' and his hands are gold with trotters....I have seen him sweep the field down the lane from outside posts because he just knows follow flow and always has his horses ready!!
-#2 could be KEYED but I caution the fact that a young trotter can get geared up too high their 2nd race I find and break by going too fast in the middle of the race or 3rd Q turn
Liking this looks of this PICK5 for value.....will cap Race 4 and 5 tomorrow and suggest some tickets
Every Boxing Day, there is a 20-40 to 1 who wins....and so....my first 3 plays will be PICK3s:
These tickets are being played:
Race 1 P3s (20 cent plays)
3469/ 124578/ 289
5/ 236710/ 289
34679/ 235610/ 6
Cost = $22.40 < hit one of those, I believe I will profit and maybe earn 5-10x if the right mix occurs
Pick5 I am still working on....
Apparently, also a first for Mohawk is starting Race 4 I believe, you can play a PICK6 instead of a PICK4 which they used to have and with this one, like the pick5, the jackpot can grow if no one hits......payouts will be good on this one and its the type of ticket where you wheel one medium to long shot in a few races and play multiple tickets if you like it.....I may create a ticket and suggest one or not. Still mulling. Only if I feel I have a KEY or TWO and an edge /angle. For sure, I know that you almost never get 5-6 favorites winning.....and I know this because I charted every PICK5 in 2023 and most in 2024
Be aware that the last race of the card will likely have $450 000 - 550 000 in the pot guaranteed to pay out for a JACKPOT HI-5 ticket.....when I see these, if I had a good night, I will spend $50-100 on a ticket(s) and try to win one for $1 which gives you a shot at the overall pool and then I will play some 20 cent superhi-five fectas with one horse wheeled to win or finish 2nd or 3rd
NOTE: RACE #1 ***** - just noticed something!! #6 Speed of Sound was qualified NOT by JMac, but Dan O'Brien which means the horse did most of the speed on his own and could have went a second quicker with JMac's confident steers....BEWARE ! It now moves up to top contender with #7 and #4 in my opinion
Race 4: - there could be some surprise horses but 4-5 horses standout
Surprise horse: #2 Hestonator < might get overlooked with some other strong horses BUT this is Rene Plante's only drive on the card and he will go for it ala Colin Kelly going for it on the last two cards and me sniffing it out
Figures/take: - 1789 and might leave #5 out because he will need a race since the qualifier shows this so I will use in a PICK3 starting in RACE 2 with ALL with/ 289 / 25
Posting Race 5 picks.....and maybe a PICK6 try later tonight.....xmas is calling me with family
Merry xmas and enjoy the day everyone!
Race 5: - I think about 5 horses have a chance, but one only has to KEY one horse or take only 2 horses and if alive in the PICK5 , backup your ticket if its paying over $250 with some win money on some other horses who I will say have GOOD SHOT to win
Surprise Horse(s): #2 (good driver/trainer but weakest JMAC horse in first 5 races
# 4 < good driver change and this horse though fails to beat one of my top horses
Best: #5, 7, 9
Strong chance: #1, 9 < will appear KEYED in some Luc Roy wheel/KEY plays
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This is what I wrote the other day.....going with a slight revamp because I have decided to only go with #67 in RACE 1 on every ticket in the PICK5 I do (many smaller ones) and then try for some longshot Pick3's with others and maybe a couple with them:
Every Boxing Day, there is a 20-40 to 1 who wins....and so....my first 3 plays will be PICK3s. These tickets are being played:
Race 1 P3s (20 cent plays)
349/ 2346710/ 289 =$10.80
67 / 1589/ 289 = $4.80
67 /58 / 289 = $2.40
4/ 236710/ 289 = $3
5/ 2346710/ 289 = $3.60
67/ ALL/ 6 = $4
34679/ 2346710/ 6 = $6
Cost = $34.60 < hit one of those, I believe I will profit and maybe earn 3-10x if the right mix occurs
Daily Double $4 > 67 / 4 (JMac surprise win in 2nd race) = $8
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PICK5 - JMAC's best chance to win are Race #1 and #3 but he will have a very live horse in a tough race in Race #4
I think you therefore, only need #67 in Race #1 and will try many tickets with those two and a JMAC wheel to win race #3 and Race #4. Its the best strategy for me to win a nice ticket, which is to add other longer odds plays in other races
I also think Luc Roy can bring home one of his two horses in race 4 and 5 for a nice price
I think Austin Sorrie SHOULD win one of the two races he is in in race 4 or 5 and maybe both on very live horses
What I am likely playing:
67 / 236710/ 2/7/ 147 = $6
67/ 236710/ 2/ 259 / 5 = $6
67 / 236710 / 2 / 8/ 147 = $6
67/ 236710/ 2/ 259/ 9 = $6
67/236710/89/1/14579 = $20
67 / 236710/ 2/ 78/59 x 2 tickets = $16
Above are tickets where I wheel JMAC to win race 3 or 4 and combo with Sorrie winning race 4 or 5 OR Luc Roy wining race 4 or 5
Last tickets: JMAC only has a shot of winning race #1 and Austin Sorrie winning race 4 or 5
67/ 236710 / 9/ 7 / 14579 = $10
67 / 236710 / 9 / 25789/ 5 = $10
Pick3 $1 > 67 / 23610 / 8 = $8
That is $80 on PICK5's plus the $50 on the other exotics ...I won over $300 ....so doing a little press here but you don't have to....just follow along and maybe make your own ticket using some of my numbers or KEYS
I have created 2 other versions of something like above for my PICK5 and will decide tomorrow when I get to the window which way to go
I am pretty much going with what I had....posted above. I just came back and have a big handful of tickets including the PICK6 starting in RACE 4 ......I am using the same strategy with it thinking Austin Sorrie should win either race #4 or #5 or BOTH....and JMAC will win race7 or race 9 but not both.....and if he does, I pressed on some PICK3's with him winning both
I might post my ideas before race 4 for the PICK6 ....BUT since its the first time, I may choose to not haha....it will likely be a monster pool since most of North America is watching today and that final race #12 will probably have $500K in the pot for the Hi-5 which is picking the top 5 winners. I will post my thoughts on who can likely win that race and which horse I will wheel to finish, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and just take ALL in the last position (5th) for that race....its like a triactor but extended to picking the 5 finishers in order
copy this link to watch the races https://woodbine.com/mohawk/watch-races/
Tale of the Tape as I go with Picks in P5 /P3s: - winners are blackened
Race 1 P3s (20 cent plays)
349/ 2346710/ 289 =$10.80 
67 / 1589/ 289 = $4.80
67 /58 / 289 = $2.40
4/ 236710/ 289 = $3
5/ 2346710/ 289 = $3.60
67/ ALL/ 6 = $4
34679/ 2346710/ 6 = $6
Pick3 $1 > 67 / 23610 / 8 = $8
Cost = $34.60 < hit one of those, I believe I will profit and maybe earn 3-10x if the right mix occurs
Daily Double $4 > 67 / 4 (JMac surprise win in 2nd race) = $8
---------------------------------------------------------------
Pick5s
67 / 236710/ 2/7/ 147 = $6
67/ 236710/ 2/ 259 / 5 = $6
67 / 236710 / 2 / 8/ 147 = $6
67/ 236710/ 2/ 259/ 9 = $6
67/236710/89/1/14579 = $20
67 / 236710/ 2/ 78/59 x 2 tickets = $16
67/ 236710 / 9/ 7 / 14579 = $10
67 / 236710 / 9 / 25789/ 5 = $10
GREAT START!
#6 won race 2 (overwhelming favorite)
- I was KEYING it in my OPTION 3 tickets that I was playing this morning as a consideration but just decided to stick with what I had first proposed in my thread
-if I would have played option #3, it would have included playing a $10 double in race #1 to the #6 in race 2 who just won
-Dbl 7/6 would payout $69.50 return on the $10 bet
What I wrote in my capping notes: "Figures/take: 289 << Michel V is the 'trot whisperer' and his hands are gold with trotters....I have seen him sweep the field down the lane from outside posts because he just knows follow flow and always has his horses ready!!"
#9 won easily and #8 came at him hard as a great driver, got by him temporarily and Michel just asked his horse a little more and he pulled away near the wire
- won @ 5-1 so this PICK5 should be paying around $100 minimum if 2 favorites win the next two races
-the PICK5 has the potential to pay $250+ if we get one of the Sorrie horses and probably over $500 if JMAC wins this 4th race
I have 3 tickets alive on the PICK5 :
67/236710/89/1/14579 = $20
67/ 236710 / 9/ 7 / 14579 = $10
67 / 236710 / 9 / 25789/ 5 = $10
Hope you do!
Ok....I have one horse alive in my PICK5 and I have one horse alive in my PICK6 (had 2 tickets) and unfortunately or FORTUNATELY, my day will rest on AUSTIN SORRIE driving #5 in the middle of the gate and just opened up favorite at 2-1
#6 is 2nd favorite
3rd favorites are tied > #9 and #1 at 7-1 in early Race 5 betting
If #5 wins, the PICK5 pays:
Charmbo Stormy
$266.40 (5 of 5)
Congrats if you followed.....we won some profits
$0.20 Pick 5 7 / 6 / 9 / 8 / 5 (5 of 5) $266.40
My Pick 6 ticket is alive too and some backup PICK3's
PICK6 Ticket:
12589
5
1346
24
310
4
Race 7 Pick3's:
$4 Pick3 > 1 / 3 10 / 4
60 cents Pick3 > 1 / 2456789 / 4
I am heading back to the offtrack to cash my PICK5 and watch race #7 and #8 ....back up #4 in race 9 likely with the following pick3
124 / 3 10 / 1235
No chance on PICK6 now and just have the PICK3 alive 3x 20 cents to #4 in the last leg
Going to start handicapping for tomorrow and see if I like the card.
There is still the HI-5 today and going to cap it now fresh and post a 1-2 horse win the race ticket with a horse I think can finish in the top 2-4 places.....stay tuned
You go ahead and try it. i won't
RACE 12 HI-5 suggestion:
I think only #10 can win this race most likely.....#3 loves finishing 2nd and 3rd a lot so wheel it and the #12 because he gets to follow #3 of of the gate and that is good positioning into the Top 5 or 6 horses likely and JMAC is the driver!
First bets:
$1 or 2 Triactor > 3 12 with 3 10 12 with 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 12 > Cost = $28 or $56 depending on if it is $1 or $2
$1 Triactor > 3 12 with 57 with 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 = $12
$ Exactor 578 / 3 10 12 = $9
^^^ these are backup tickets and I have hit some pretty big exactors going for a HI-5
20 CENT Hi - 5 tickets:
10 / 12 / 3 / 578 / 12578 / ALL = $8
10 / 3 /12 / 578 / 12578 / ALL = $8
10 / 578 / 3 12/ 357812 / 12345678 12 = $18
Total cost for all tickets = $83 OR $111
Lets see if it comes in.....I will kick myself 
....but I am fine with the profits in the past 5 sessions and don't want to run that down on one race with 12 horses in it
HOLY SHIT....I DID NOT GO and play it but gave anyone watching in here a good cap on it and it won:
20 CENT Hi - 5 tickets:
10 / 12 / 3 / 578 / 12578 / ALL = $8
10 / 3 /12 / 578 / ALL = $8
10 / 578 / 3 12/ 357812 / 12345678 12 = $18
Payout >> $0.20 HI-5 10 / 3 / 12 / 7 / 2 $1,330.31
I did not go to play it as I am satisfied with my profits recently
THAT'S AWESOME! Congrats.
I am kicking myself but I told my wife that the betting bug is creeping back and I need to be careful so I was saying pass on the HI-5 because I would have had to shell out about $100 and I am hanging around $350+ profits and want to keep it going without spending crazy money all the time. I spend around $140 on tickets to get the $266
Never been to Hazel Park but I watched some simulcasts....Mohawk is such an amazing site to chill with a brew and a bite and play some tickets and see the horses right over the track
Friday Racing card at Mohawk:
-not over excited about this card
- no Luc Roy which opens things up or JMAC to dominate BUT...... there could be a theme where he DOES NOT win with the horsemen playing around a little so I might focus on some PICK3's with this in mind (no JMAC) but in the PICK5 ....JMAC and maybe a trainer or one other driver may feature .....that works for me I am finding. First of all though, cap the race and if the horses are close, then think about strategy!
- PUSH east wind (behind them when starting and also finishing down the long stretch)
-fog possible so that means things could get interesting with drivers unaware of who is coming when they make a move
Starting to cap ....
Race 1: - really like Des Tackoor as a trainer...small outfit with high success and his horses can shave time easily like #1 has done in the past couple of races ....might play the trainer to win this race as KEY on one P5 ticket and a second ticket with him winning the 2nd race with #8 and same trainer/driver combo . As well, first ticket I punch in is a $10 Dbl #1/#8
-now that I look at this first race carefully, there are 5-6 horses that have a good chance BUT you can focus on hot horses
Surprise Horse: #7 << this horse won in 1:56 in London with a 56'+ second back half.....that is quite a feat there on the half mile track and this horse closed a 55'2 at Mohawk.....if there is a speed battle, I would not be surprised to see this sweep around or through a stalling wall of horses down the stretch that went to fast
-been waiting for #9 to pop one of these times (Bayfield Beach) ....might do a PICK3 key with it but not in PICK5
Figures/take: KEY#1 on a ticket along with #6 and on the other take 3475 << this one has middle of the gate finally and an aggressive trainer who might get him to the front where I have seen this horse race well or in the 2-hole and out manoeuvre a horse in front of it up the rail
Race 2: - Having a hard time making a case for another horse to beat #8
-I do know that JMac can shave time on a horse when its ready and with the right trip (2 seconds!)
- I like 2 other possibilities as a maybe and that is it
KEY?: #8 or take 1246 to beat Day Trader
Race 3: - feels like an ALL race
Surprise Horse: - #8 < has Tyler Borth and this horse coming off a layoff has a chance to shave 1-2 seconds off tonight which is normal for a 2nd race after a long layoff
Figures/Take: -345678
Race 4: - competitive race because the 2 best trotters are on the outside
Surprise Horse(2): #2 and #5 < might put them in due to the fact the best horses are on the outside tonight
Figures/Take: 347 10
Race 5: - just need 678
BACKUP #1 and #5 or #9 if alive and it is paying well...good luck
My tickets: Des Tackoor wins one of the 1st two races or both and a couple other wheels..
Ticket 1
34567
8
345678
7 10
678
#2:
1
8
345678
2345710
678
#3 and #4:
5/1246/6/34710/67 and 6/1246/3/34710/67
Various pick3's and a big one starting RACE 3 I might post later when we get there....it backs up my PICK5's
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