Mohawk Harness Thread 2.0 - Last2Thirst

Doug McNair screwed around and did not move #1 like he should have in Race 2 ....done 

Extreme cold all week....maybe by Friday or Saturday I will post a play. Horse betting becomes very difficult in the cold. If you have ever bet the Chicago Harness tracks in the middle of the winter, you will know what I mean as all kinds of favorites who run well in regular temps have trouble breathing/performing and longshots occur have the time. That is hard to read in the forum.

See you at the end of the week possibly...

Plan on finally playing a race card tonight 

Weather is around 20-24F which is way better than it was and horses will be frisky from the temperature change since they would have to be barned a lot through this cold. THEY WANT OUT !  Even I did my first 5 km walk about an hour ago and even though that sounds cold, its about 12-15 F warmer than it was so it felt great!

Wind from the West at about 15 -18 mph right in the faces of the horses leaving home and coming down the final stretch. Position matters but don't leave out the fastest closing horse as they can come out of nowhere and pass tired horses if the fractions and racing was too frenetic in the first 3 Qs

Racing begins at 630 pm and I hate it but excited to finally play a card tonight

And its a near full card with this many horses in the first PICK5 that I am playing > 9 / 7 / 10 / 10 / 10

No James MacDonald!

Thurs Jan 23 picks:

Race 1: - most impressed with form and racing from #8 and #1 but the real unknowns are in 3 other first time racing horses of which have great pedigree, and one horse who did well in his first race staying flat with a new super trainer in Mark Etsell

Take 124578 on one ticket and 18 on a separate ticket

Since it is trotters and they can put together one great race anytime, I will do a PICK3 starting with 369 

 Race 2: - only one horse MAYBE can beat #7 and that is #4 with the aggressive drive last week, excellent driver and trainer combo .... #1 has an amazing line of any horse here if you look at its bottom line at Poconos!

Do a PICK3 with 14 backup if you want 

KEY #7 in P5

 Race 3: - DEFINITELY LIKE SOME and this should be a longshot type race like race #1

Take: 34578  and maybe 69 < I question that they will get the right kind of trip ...like #9 because the horse can blast but the horse tires although the 4 day rotation after his last race and two wins means the horse is sent here fit and ready to win

 #4 is a BEWARE type of horse...huge trainer difference with aggressive driver in these types of situations

Race 4: - Like 25 a lot and a maybe to #1 

Longshot #6

Race 5: - 157 

My tickets....had to leave quick after I sent that because it takes me 10-15 min in rush hour traffic. My account had to be shutdown because they no longer accepted credit union account and most accounts. They want credit card now. I just don't want to do that but will occasionally. I have to build my cash again because I shipped back $3300 out of my account to bank. Its a pain.

I did:

18 / 7 / 345678910 / 125 / 1357 = $37

18/ 147 / 34578 / 25/ 57 = $24

P3 ALL /7/ 3456789 = $12.60

One ticket alive....payouts are decent except to major fave 

1
Jj Landon
5 $292.59 (5 of 5)
2
Cheddar Duharas
13 $1,031.37 (5 of 5)
3
Phone Nine One One
8 $203.38 (5 of 5)
4
Speedy Blinders
54 $7,047.73 (5 of 5)
5
Hurrikane Cheyenne
1/2 $36.72 (5 of 5)
6
Dakota Sena
11 $902.86 (5 of 5)
7
D a Captainobvious
11 $276.57 (5 of 5)

Cheapest price paid...shit

Friday - similar weather as last night but slightly less wind

Race 1 - really like > 235

Consider: 14678 to put in or definitely place in a PICK3

Race 2 - 2567

Race 3 - just need 2 KEY ....this horse has a pattern of win every other race it seems 

Only #3 and #6 could upset 

Race 4 - THIS RACE determines the whole night in my opinion..... #1 should be a KEY with McNair but she has not won since June and she is up against some good young horses

Just a HUNCH > they gave time off for Mikki Sixx #8  and it will benefit the horse after some intense racing in stakes races.....

McNair went for #1 but could face traffic trouble and with an aggressive drive like Drury who likes taking horses to the front when they have horsepower, I can see him getting the lead and Angostura Hanover coming later first over or 2nd over for a match race down the lane

Race 5 - Really looking forward to this race and think I have a strong value KEY > #4 (8-1 in the book)

-I am playing 2-3 tickets......definitely a longer play with #4 keyed

LIKE AS WELL on other tickets > 23710

My tickets:

#2 just won race #1 @ 6 - 1

1 - 8 / 1 - 7 / 2 / 18 / 4 = $19.20

235 / 2567 / 2 / 1 / 23710 = $9.60

235 / 12567 / 36 / 1 / 4 = $6

60 cent pick3  > 235 / 1 - 7 / 136 = $12.60

60 cent Pick3 > 235 / 2567 / 2 = $7.20  < if I win, it should pay for the BACKUP P3 now with #2 winning at 6 - 1 in the FIRST RACE! 

#6 won race 2 

PICK3 PAYOUTS are decent and like I thought, will pay for my backup tickets and others tickets if #1-3 or 6 win....and if #2 the fave wins, I gain about $4 profit and then still have all of my PICK5 tickets open except for one

Brudon
23 $96.18 (3 of 3)
2
A Class Yankee
2/5 $9.38 (3 of 3)
3
Miki Ray
8 $20.51 (3 of 3)
4
Pendleton Rodeo
11 $72.33 (3 of 3)
5
Zebs Krafty
11 $108.07 (3 of 3)
6
T H Boomtown
7/2 $22.42 (3 of 3)

Ok, things are going according to plan but what can upset everything in the PICK5 is race #4 coming up because I only like 2 horses  #1 and #8

1 - 8 (#2 wins / 1 - 7 (#6 wins) / 2 / 18 / 4 = $19.20

235 / 2567 / 2 / 1 / 23710 = $9.60

LOST 3RD PICK3 for -$6

60 cent pick3  > 235 / 1 - 7 / 136 = $12.60 NO 

60 cent Pick3 > 235 / 2567 / 2 = $7.20  PAYS BACK $28.14 return ...so I made $8 with 2 P5 tickets alive 

 Frustrating Race #4 - I decided to dip into my credit card and spend $20 on a double and got it 2x paying $69.80 and keyed the #4 at 8 -1 in the book and first time on the track

Guess who won RACE 5 > #4 ..... I liked this P5 but it just couldn't deliver for me

If Mohawk runs tonight, I will be shocked!

70-80 KM (45 mph winds) and snow gonna be flying, so a blizzard !

Not going to cap because it will be brutal and lots of scratches.....see you on Thursday

I am looking forward to Mohawk tonight > nice temps for the winter, fast track and strong SW wind at 25mph+ to assist horses down the back stretch and final turn in making their moves. Front end horses will be fine if they monitor their fractions well.....

If JMAC racing any style (front or cover or first over), these conditions are ideal for him, Doug McNair on the front end is excellent with fractions usually and new guys like Billy Davis and the old vets like Trevor Henry can do well

Race 1-5 for PICK5 sizings:  8 horses / 8 horses/ 8 horses/ 9 horses / 10 horses

Try to find a value play in one - two races !

Race 1 notes: - every single horse that has merit, has shown a break recently 

-the horses that impress me from qualifying are #1 and #3.....all three are capable trainers to produce a time that shaves 3 seconds off their best AT ANY TIME!

-best racers prior > #8 is impressive as is, #6

Maybes, but can leave out because they need a flatline are #5 and #4

SUGGESTION: P5 > take #1,3,6,8

P3 > take all 6 horses or just #4 and #5

Race 2 notes: - Like only 2-3 horses a lot but going to suggest another that I see.....

Definitely take: #1 with JMAC first time and coming around and #5 who I like best > Lyle MacArthur horse dropping down into first time claimers and they tend to pop

Does #3 the pre-race fave warrant consideration? > not as much as the other two above, but yes!

LONGSHOT BEWARE: #8 raced well with a first time switch to a left hand whip driver in Phil Hudon.....now, they switch the horse back to a right hand whip regular driving who is moving horses well off the pace which suits this horse..... we just might see #3, #1 and #8 battle out down the lane if #5 does not pull the race and sustain its speed which I suspect, down the backstretch Trevor will move this horse into contention on the lead or the 2 - hole off the gate and keep the horse interested in a front end battle 

#6 is a maybe with first time Jodi and good post relief 

Race 3 notes: - Really like 5 7 and think the Flamboro times for #1 fit quite well these and best driver at the track....in fact, all 3 horses have the very best 3 drivers at Mohawk 

PICK3 > will be making a pick3 with #4 and 6 starting in Race #1

Race 4 notes: - weak favorite here.....you have to take 5-7 horses and if so, I might LEAVE OUT the 2-1 favorite who I don't think is strong enough to win back to back races vs some equally strong horses and better drivers!

Definitely: #56 

Have a shot: #238 << especially

Longshot : #7, #1

LEAVE OUT?: #4?

Race 5 notes: - love #8 << $100 K yearling who has a 152 time and now goes to a hot Demers with excellent driver! Love #5 only as well because Cullen does not lose too many when he is middle of the gate and has a top horse in the field

BACKUP > #1, 3 and 6 if its paying well and you made it this far

I still have one ticket alive....

I saw an equipment change in #2 in the second race and added it....thank god

My ticket > 1368 / 1235 / 157 / 568 (note, I don't have the 2-1 fave but started some pick3's in race 1 and Race 3/ 48

Cost = $288 in plays at 20 cent or $57.60

Race 3 pick3 alive $1 = 157 / 4 / 48 = $6

also > 157 / 1237 / 48 = $4.80

also > 157 / 568 / 1369 = $7.20

I have about $88 into tonight and I think I got a good one.....watch the payout on #8 if I am alive!!!

I am alive !!!! #5 won and this is paying $2500 to the favorite and probably $6000-10 000 to #8

Lets see the payouts....I am going to back up every horse + the ones that I have in the PICK3

Have to use VISA CARD but don't mind here

oh my lord!!

Baylor Bobby
$38,786.09 (5 of 5)
2
Acefortyfour Zeus
$94,638.07 (5 of 5)
3
Speedy Blinders
$10,154.30 (5 of 5)
4
Keystone Tenacious
$9,170.35 (5 of 5)
5
Savoir Duharas
$24,391.25 (5 of 5)
6
Bettorholdontight
$14,974.37 (5 of 5)
7
Giddy Up Max
$19,393.04 (5 of 5)
8
Tuf Cooper
$19,393.04 (5 of 5)
9
Hapuna Beach
$47,319.03 (5 of 5)
10
The Colt
$0 (5 of 5)

also > 157 / 568 / 1369 = $7.20 < payouts for this PICK3:

1
Baylor Bobby
24 $571.48 (3 of 3)
2
Acefortyfour Zeus
14 $23.84 (2 of 3)
3
Speedy Blinders
5 $157 (3 of 3)

6
Bettorholdontight
4 $317.32 (3 of 3)


9
Hapuna Beach
9/2 $342.56 (3 of 3)

So, I only got back $20 win on a 37 - 1 so got back $770 > spent over $340 trying to get it because of what I had possibilities

Still happy with $330 profit but man, what it could have been....it was better for me to the this longershot win that the $40 I put on #3 + the $250 I was gettin on the pick3

Can't bet tonight...pissed off given the events of today to my native country

See you tomorrow

Very strong West wind above 30 mph right into the faces of the horses tonight.... outside posts are virtually no good UNLESS they have a driver that has a very fast closer and there is a speed battle. Horses will want to get position off the gate and outside horses will be parked by inside 6 horses that leave.....

Best to take speed horses and fastest consistent closer, especially if inside the top 6 positions on the gate

I have the card capped for tonight already but going to re-look at my selections and refine some races a little bit

I see spending about $50-60 to get the PICK5 and then do a big triactor in the first race to back that up but maybe have to change my approach

Snowstorm tonight. I doubt there will be races and if there is....there will be too much snow on the track for me to be comfortable betting a horse that moves well 

See ya on Monday

Mohawk Monday:

-cold night with no precipitation likely > 10-15 mph west wind in their faces in final stretch and off the gate

-I think there will be speed battles so include best closer with driver who knows how to bring it home down the lane

-front speed is the main focus or if 2nd Over trip kind of horse

I am capping early and laying this bet before posted changes. I have stuff today and I hate the time they go off at...its disruptive

Race 1: - #5 is KEY worthy > JMAC and trainer are superb together 

-6 or 7 could sneak by it 

-rest are long and 34 merit consideration

Race 2: -#5 Amigo Volo is dangerous when fit and racing two weeks in a row, the horse will be dialed in so it warrants a KEY but I think its best to take it and 46 to be sure

Race 3: - #5 KEY potentially again with JMAC first time on B Stoney with a great trainer..... I do like #8 as this combo of Demers and Luc Roy is deadly....Demers gets the horse ready well for Luc 

- I think Borth will move #4 Tango Seelster into position and could surprise getting to the top or 2 hole ...if you notice, the horse has been steered carefully when outside of #6 off the gate but inside of that, they move the horse into contention

-#2 might have the right driver finally in Jodi to steer this horse around the track. Jodi is a one aggressive move driver who has great hands down the lane and if he is on top or near it, he is in contention and I think this horse will be

*Don't like pre-race fave #6 Palladium Hanover...I have never seen this horse beat better horse and he will have to do that in order to win 

- #7 warrants respect and put in your P5 if a small ticket

Race 4: - every card for the rest of the year, I plan on visualizing one race where I think a NON -TOP driver on the circuit, has the best chance to win a race at 4-1 or better in the book pre-race.....and in this race, a candidate is #5 Valuable Miss with Brett  Mac driving

-horse is - dropping down/ has aggressive driver who knows when to move a horse to the front / has best race time last year by far

Others I like: 127 

Longshot > BEWARE #9 that if there is a speed battle, I will take this horse with #5 and #2 on a PICK 3 starting in race #2 .....I think if I hit either, I will pay out nicely

Race 5: - take 3-4 horses.... #3689 .....beware #7 and back up this horse with a bet to win if still alive